There are lots of things scrambling through my big brain this morning, such as banks, reits, oils and Korea.
Despite numerous capital raises, most banks have insufficient tier one capital levels. Which means, of course, they will have to raise new money. I have a funny feeling the government will allow corporations repatriate earnings held abroad.
If you recall, they allowed U.S. corporations to do this, back in 2004-05. As a result, more than $300 bill came flooding back. Some estimates say there is more than $1 trillion in earnings being held in foreign banks abroad, mainly by IT and healthcare companies.
One company that has busloads of cash aboard and needs it badly is GE. With GE getting “homo hammered” on a daily basis here, do not be surprised to see “The Big O,” include repatriation incentives in his stimulus bill.
Korean banks are in dire straights. Look for excessive weakness in SHG and WF. Both companies are devoid of the ever elusive tier one capital.
Speaking of which: so are most of our reits. These assholes have billions upon billions in debt due and no—fucking—chance of refinancing it, at least cheaply. For example: SPG has more than $3 billion due in 2009-2010.
How in the world will they be able to deal with that? Perhaps a little government intervention?
Bottom line: I have a fucking list running down the hallway, littered with companies with negative cash per share/price ratios. Any company with more debt than cash is subject to unannounced bear raids.
Here are a few names, with tenuous balance sheet issues, worth noting:
AIV, SLG, RWT, MFW, PHH, WF, SHG, BLX, CMA, MAC, CYH, TK, PKY, ATLS, PPS, UDR, SSS, SPG and CHK.
Bottom line: Despite the prospect of a government sponsored “bad bank” (how ridiculous does that sound?) I still think the market is fucked. Naturally, beware of the short squeezes and all that other egregious stuff. However, at the end of the day, the core fundamentals shows no signs of improvement and, as a point in fact, look rather dreadful from my perspective.
NOTE: SHG is raising money today, at a 25% discount to market.
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The fly is GOD
Got Zombie?
The Fly is God
Hey Fly, did you mean to write something at end after Bottom Line?
Zombie, you are FIRED!
Hey FLY how about Developing….
banks better expand lending otherwise no federal aid.
What to do with the 100’s of “T’s” of the sh*t sandwich “Off” Da Books??
Redeem/Bury the Fraud?
For those of you who haven’t figured out what’s going on with the financials:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OYBEquZ_j0&fmt=6
Position yourself accordingly. Let’s rob these fuckers!
(note: DevilDog is the alarm guy)
It is developing that I punch your chest hairs off.
Larry Kudlow and his fucking king dollar…
we hope banks make an egregious amount of bad loans so the pigs will finally die.
If this “bad bank” idea is brought into reality and set up, who will run it? And futhermore, what will they do with it? Just let it sit there year after year after year until one day the rotten molded houses that are the underlying assets of the “bad” part finally start to regain value? I don’t know…… I think my idea is better…… a huge nationwide public auction live through the internet, of all the “bad” assets and let Joe Blows bid on them and get them on the ultra cheap and be done with it.
It is all so ridiculous to me. Anything, if sold cheap enough will be bought by someone out there. And houses will always sell if the price is right.
In fact I bet the Fly would buy his neighbor “Steve’s” house for 85.00 if it was offered to him for that price?
CHINA:
Reportedly, China’s Premier Wen said that 8% growth in 2009 will be difficult for China
– Note: On 1/28, Wen was quoted as saying that 8% GDP growth for China in 2009 is achieveable, but would be a “tall order”.
China’s State Council Official: Rural income growth has been halted, must be prioritized to generate internal demand
– Sees 15.3% unemployment among rural migrant workers
Chinese Premier Wen: Accepts responsibilities, yet China still ‘developing’, aware of gap with richer countries
– Notes that the country must complete its industrialization.
– World financial crisis has not hit bottom yet.
China called for unity in its armed forces on Sunday and absolute obedience to the Communist party –
– The comments come as Chinese officials are becoming wary of rising unrest as the economy slows.
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News Concerning My Industry:
Symbol: ARM
http://www.arvinmeritor.com/
ArvinMeritor,Inc. is a premier global supplier of a broad range of integrated systems, modules and components to the motor vehicle industry. The company serves commercial truck, trailer and specialty original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and certain aftermarkets, and light vehicle manufacturers.
Monday, February 02, 2009
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. announced it will test two new types of heavy-duty commercial hybrid trucks and two different alternatively fueled heavy duty trucks as a part of the company”s efforts to build on its progress in developing a more sustainable trucking fleet.
– Wal-Mart has actively engaged several suppliers to develop and test these new technologies. This includes Arvin Meritor, Eaton, Peterbilt and International as well as smaller companies. Wal-Mart will test these new technologies throughout 2009.
– The new trucks include a full-propulsion Arvin Meritor hybrid that will initially operate in the Detroit area.
Peterbilt Motors Co. announced that the company will offer three new liquefied natural gas (LNG) configurations on its Models 387, 386 and 367 in 2009. The factory-installed LNG system is part of a joint agreement between Peterbilt and Westport Innovations to provide natural gas versions of select Peterbilt aerodynamic and vocational vehicles, the company said. The LNG Models 387, 386 and 367 complement Peterbilt’s existing Model 320 CNG vehicles, of which over 50 are in operation throughout the U.S.
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by the way Fly, speaking on your Korean bank stocks, did you see on the news yesterday the North Korea has threatened starting up another war with South Korea?
this link might work for the article.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090201/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_tension
usually a good time to buy SK for a trade anytime NK starts talking war.
Lady G — good to see that “the Boss” — patron of the blue collar — went out of his way to apologize to his fans (who are mostly blue collar) for selling his “Best Of” CD exclusively at Wal-Mart (where blue collar folks shop), since it’s such a hateful demonic corporation, or at least that’s what the moonbats told him.
Oh, the reason Bruce took the deal in the first place? That eeevul, monstrous, terrible town destroying corporation is paying him a bigger cut of the proceeds than any other retailer. Imagine that?
STFU and continue prancing around on the stage, please, “Boss.”
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Very insightful analysis.
The question I have though is this already discounted in the prices.
This IMO is the key.
artist:
North Korea threatens war with the south every other week. It’s nothing to be alarmed about. this time some new scribe must have picked up the story and thought it was serious. It isn’t.
careful with your short positions. where i live in CT it smells like spring out. If it’s the same on Wall Street, the big boys will return from lunch, convinced that all financial problems have been solved unaware that they are only responding to the pleasant weather and the whiff of spring. These morons (mostly the beneficiaries of trust funds and legacy programs) have very little self-awareness. That said, I’m paring short positions right now. I am taking a long position in UPS to hold through earnings due to the fact that they service most internet site. deliveries, including Amazon. I expect them to beat. They’re down in sympathy with Fed-Ex but Fed-Ex has a different model. Any thoughts on UPS?
Fly
why is BEAV up today? Is it worth a short into this “wretchery”
Give my blog back!
Can someone provide me a list of the best REIT shorts. I’m kinda lazy to do it myself. Since trading SRS is sheer fuckery, I figure I am better off just shorting the REITs. I took a short position in VNO today and have KIM short too. What else should I short – SPG ? BXP ? I want to short around 5 or 6 REITs. I figure the REITS in 2009 will be like the banks in 2008. Plenty of fortune cookies a ‘la LEH BSC AIG etc.
BEAV’s problem is that Eddie Haskell and Lumpy Rutherford have been teasing him on the way back from school.
But BEAV’s brother Wally is going to get even with them by firebombing their homes.
i think it would be funny if the fly laid off a tabbed blogger, citing the deteriorating economic conditions.
ward, June says use a dildo next time as you’re a soft cock idiot.
I see dead bulls, cows, sheeples, goldbugs, TBTers and j.
If some sort of dollar repatriation is passed then the dollar will probably move higher which has been a negative for the indices
GDP @-3.8% better than expected?
to our understanding of how bad GDP really was.
We already knew that the rise in inventory contributed 1.29% points to GDP growth. Without the inventory build, the GDP number would have been down 5.1%.
What we also knew that the deflator fell 0.1% — the first decline since the 1954. If on top of inventories, the deflator had risen 0.4%, as consensus expected, GDP would have been down -5.6%.
What else was buried in the GDP report besides inventory and falling prices that was artificially goosing the data?
The answer? TARP. data shows the “change in capital transfers from 3Q 08 to 4q08 was net $271 billion.” Meaning, this was about 8-10%. of the reported US economic activity is artificial.
Damn again
Dog, sorry bud, my killfile didn’t work again. Could you please put up something in a few secs while a tinker with this darned thing.
If you don’t hear from me you know it works so thanks in advance.
Nobody was laughing at the ads at my Super Bowl Party. Instead we starting doing over and under on peoples ages.
Bruce Springsteen 60
Alec Baldwin 49
Ed “fucking” Mcmahon 86
Egregious
Jake
Nat Gas trucks might be the wave of the future. I cant buy any right now as there arent enough fueling stations yet in Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana. Texas might be first to get nat gas since they are on the cutting edge but forget about Louisiana…that state is very backwards. I hate going there, roads are bad, no decent truck stops for my men and police on every corner(not that my guys speed)and the loading and unloading at those Walmarts are more difficult and time consuming. Time is money in my business.
At some point Walmart might start asking ‘ independent contractors’ to start using hybrid trucks but that’s probably a decade away.
Walmart has been good to me. Let’s not forget the ‘Boss’ is in good company now with Apple/Steve Jobs jumping on the Walmart bandwagon.
Walmart employs a lot of people, not to mention is the main shopping source for millions of people. In small towns Walmart is their life-blood.
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Punyandy:
iBC is a fortress blog, with a pristine balance sheet. We have no toxic bloggers on our balance sheets.
I’m fitting into pants in my closet that I haven’t been able to wear for 20 years… and they may be in style again too…
what if the government overpays for a certain amount of toxic assets, not trillions but enough for it to legitimately say they made a market at that price, and then all the banks go ahead and mark up their assets to this new inflated “market” price. They don’t suspend mark to market but get same result and the banks move up their capital ratios with the higher values. Just a thought.
thats-a summa spicy meat-a-ball
lol @ Larry Krudlow
LG, you’re babbling and boring everyone to suicide. Honey just come home, I need ya.
Is Michelle – fucking -caruso – fucking Cabrera a man?
FU*K – Getting squeezed on my HIG short.
MickeyD Says:
Is Michelle – fucking -caruso – fucking Cabrera a man?
February 2nd, 2009 at 12:01 pm
____________
could be?
Market doesn’t feel quicksandy enough today.
Bought a sprinkling of dollar yen. Think it could start trading higher.
Dog, fuck right off as I won’t be able to read anything you say anymore you dullard one trick pony redneck.
Off to lunch.
Two things:
The market has a bouncy feel to it.
Secondly, make sure it does not rally while I am gone.
Thanks.
the big G spending is coming to the rescue, not….$600 million in new cars for the government…what’s next everyone gets a flat panel t.v., imac for every school kid, free broadband and a blackberry to boot…gotta keep plugged in when you’re unemployed ?? WTF……artificial gov’t demand never lasts, especially when the Chinese are paying for it…
shorts keep driving the sheep over the cliff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F79-29wkxOk
here’s a link for a satellite view of weather over ny…
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20090202&endTime=-1&duration=0
it’s all about cloud cover during lunch vs. bac breaking hard under 6…
Any thoughts on UPS?
By far my largest position, as I cannot trade it.
After selling the Feb 50 calls some two weeks back, I sold the March 40 puts last Friday. IOW — I concur.
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“i think it would be funny if the fly laid off a tabbed blogger, citing the deteriorating economic conditions”
That would be hilarious. Or, you could make them all accept pay decreases. Would tabbed bloggers have to pay to blog?
How about an iBC economic stimulus? Maybe the whole site turns green for a week?
Or a splash page with an “economic stimulus condom”, ribbed for pleasure, in light of the birth control “big bang” plan.
Wait a min. birth control. big bang. that’s funny.
RF: “really f*cked”
Stocktard says:
I’m fitting into pants in my closet that I haven’t been able to wear for 20 years… and they may be in style again too…
Are you Stocktard Channing, then? She was kinda hot in tight pegged jeans in the original Grease.
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Every fucking day I look at bloomberg the headline reads:
Stocks Drop On Concern US Recession Deepening
Every fucking day.
Here comes the push
morning chuckle:
with michael phelps getting hit with a howitzer in the face for doing his best impression of linda lovelace with a bong, this brief video made my day. A cop and his wife are so high they call 911,
best quote “I think we are dead”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wr8y9BVP2e0&feature=related
Woh, shit, the dollar (UUP and/or DXY) just broke bad, like an ice laden tree limb.
Which is good, for bullishness, I mean.
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UUP just dropped 13 cents in moments, which is a very abrupt move for UUP.
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Mr Cobblehead’s TNA is looking better- too bad he is at lunch.
.
Somebody got Fly’s Cell phone number?
(Trader Servants — clear all paper weights from your area)
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How does the market react to not passing the non-stimulating stimulus vs passing it. Seems to me we go down if it doesn’t pass initially. If it does pass we go up a little then fall through the floor when we have to pay for another one in a few weeks since this one won’t do much for stimulation.
Why the sheep still have hope…you know..a bear mkt. only last 18 months…and it starts to rally 4 months before the worst is over while unemployent is at its peak…gee Bill we better get in now…yeah hey…let’s use stats since 1948 and leave out the earlier periods.
eventually all the sheep will be driven over the cliff as the 1 quarter earnings warnings start to come in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F79-29wkxOk
looks like Obama’s boys are trying out the new toys in the boom-boom room. PPT lives
DXO turning up?
bouncy indeed!
Fly’s cell number is: 1-800-eat-shit.
UUP sure has one ugly daily chart.
ahhh, the fat pigs caught a whiff of spring, saw a few bra-less wonders during the break, popped some viagra and returned to their desks… now it’s all about BAC holding above 6.
Poof!
All your fear has disappeared.
The FLY aka Mr. Cobblehead is off to the lunch and the market rallies. When he arrives back from lunch, the market will be up 100 + points. Mr. Cobblehead aka the FLY will proceed to cover his short positions and go long in a most egregious way. The market will proceed to reverse and close at the lows of the days thus deballing/debanking/demasculinizing Mr. Cobblehead aka the FLY. And so the Story continues ……….
General Electric took TARP money…Shouldn’t the CNBC talking heads be disclosing THEIR compensation also!
anyone notice the price action in RIO? what’s up with that?
jakeglint:
the drop in uup may have something to do with rally in ten year, the hedgies in the carribean (where most of the bond speculative money has been coming from) are likely seeing some kind of govt buy in or rumors are floating around that one will occur shortly, that’s going to drop the dollar. IMO
Aris, looks like it bounced off the hrly vwap.
Prof — that’s what I’ve been waiting for/expecting.
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these goddamn skulls that spew noise vomit on cnbc are ridiculous. i’d rather they fucking fire all of them and pay one smart guy to read the news all day.
actually, i wrote too quickly.
keep erin burnett, mark haines, faber, the red-haired guy that works with him in the morning, and becky quick.
actually, just fire everybody and keep becky.
actually, just send becky to my house.
becky…
hmm…why are there cops outside my house now?
4fl3x Says:
Aris, looks like it bounced off the hrly vwap.
thank you, good sir. i’m not at home right now, so i’m only able to see stock quotes via google or yahoo, et al.
So how are you play’n it JakeGint?
For Aris http://img230.imageshack.us/my.php?image=riogs4.png
Too bad the stocks I trade never act this nicely :/
Dollar down,gold stocks down. Reversals galore.
Now if BAC gets off it’s bottom there could be a decent rally.
Cubs — I’m long FAS, refiners, some golds, some consumer nondurables (DEO), and some earls, including ERX and OXY.
But likely not for long, save for the refiners and golds which are showing nice action here. I think TSO is a great opportunity here, with a stop below $15.75 or so.
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Macy’s just cut dividend and 7000 jobs- Announced on cnbc.
Reminds me of Blame it on Rio which was one of the first R rated movies I ever saw. Great travelogue for Brasil, btw.
Good times.
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Macy’s just cut dividend and 7000 jobs- Announced on cnbc.
Men in green tights and atomizers going stark bonkers in the parfums department.
Security! Aisle six!
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don’t like the smell of this half assed rally, adding back my short positions…
the Go-Daddy girls have nice, large hooters.
4fl3x Says:
For Aris
nice. thanks for the screen cap. would have been a great trade. 🙁
M getting the bee-jesus kicked out of it off that capex slash and layoffs.
everyone is tossing in the towel now.
All other retailers please follow M out of the fucking door. Thank you!
Re: the Boss.
The issue is not with his fans, it’s with the boss himself. Springsteen, having in the past expressed his political feelings as a pro-union populist, both in song and in action, has a moral responsibility to avoid Walmart. Walmart stands against what he sings/writes/talks about, and he would be a hypocrite if he stayed with them.
Many blue collar folks dont have a real choice where to shop, as Walmart has bankrupt many local stores & competition, but this doesnt take their right to demand less hypocrisy from the Boss.
Otherwise, let him make the deal with Walmart (I bet right now you’re thinking “he doing what’s best for him…higher profits…blah blah”), but the price to pay is that he won’t be able to say you’re for the blue collar, pro union movement. Can’t have both things.
All other retailers please follow M out of the fucking door. Thank you!
Only a matter of time!
it wasn’t wmt that killed mom and pop it was the fucking malls that did them in sheesh…
and fuck springsteen too