18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,014 Blog Posts

Getting Long Ag into Fuckery

Everyone is dazed, unable to discern which direction the market is heading. While everyone fumbles around searching for clues, I will bank egregious amounts of coin in [[AGU]].

See, investors are scared of oil. However, there still is fervent demand for commodity plays. As a result, I believe all of the commodity bound money will pile the fuck into ag names, like AGU, [[POT]], [[MOS]] and [[CF]].

Now, I am a big believer in the fact that [[OXY]], [[SU]], [[RIG]] and [[NOV]] are absurdly cheap. At the moment, I am long NOV. However, because of the stupid paradigm we are in, where the entire fate of the market is reliant upon cheaper oil, I like ag here better than energy.

Look you, I have no time to explain the intricacies of money management. Take my word for it; ag goes higher.

Now, separately, I must admit being heavily long [[MS]]. I’ve been buying the fucker like a drunken OTB guy. Moreover, at the same time, I’ve bulked my [[TCB]] short to unnatural levels.

In short, I am long ag, long the brokers, while short the big money centers, via [[SKF]].

NOTE: In the event my ag thesis is wrong, I am long [[VSE]] too.

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Fly Buy: AGU, SKF

I bought 10,000 shares of [[AGU]] @ $87.28. And, I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $119

Disclaimer: If you buy AGU because of this post, the next time you are in a gunfight, you will run out of bullets. And, you may lose money.

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Nothing Like the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning

Thanks to “King Dollar” and mind boggling losses in the financials, the market is running. God willing, we shall see another 300 billion in writedowns, in order to get an even bigger short squeeze. After all, [[MER]] losing more than 40 billion, over the past 6 months, is a good thing.

“The Fly” relishes the idea of buying broken banks, in the midst of a horrific lending cycle. It’s sort of like hiring a secretary with two broken arms and a speech impediment—always a good idea.

Thankfully, I went against my better judgment and bought a few banks yesterday. Hell, I did it for the sport of it. As a result, my [[UYG]], [[STI]] and [[MS]] positions are speed racing, while my dumbass shorts eat dirt and feel the blade of bullshit.

Also, as an aside, my 200% inverse ETF’s are not fairing too well, as Mother Market deems it necessary to debank “Plutonium Petey” for having too large a gain, year to date. I will accept this punishment, only on a temporary basis.

Just know, for every [[BWLD]] there is a [[ERTS]]. For every [[DNA]] there is a [[ELN]].

Without delving into detail, I can tell you the banks have overextended themselves, yet again. If you want to buy stuff, look around in other sectors. The banks are too volatile and home to many degenerate OTB guys.

With my money, I will buy more [[MS]], while waiting for the top to hit the banks, giving “The Fly” an opportunity to “average down” on [[SKF]].

Look, there are many things I can be doing now. However, I choose to handle one thing at a time. Right now, I need to punch my way out of the SKF-SRS-FXP box I find myself in.

Aside from that, I am long [[WB]], [[LAZ]], [[JOE]], [[HD]], [[BAP]], [[AIZ]], [[MVIS]], [[SBUX]] and [[CLNE]].

NOTE: Long MS-short [[TCB]] is a great pair trade.

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Late Night Thought

Anyone who thinks crude at $120 per barrel is cheap is, without doubt, an asshat.

FlyonWallStreet Flashback: (props to Danny for having foresight, making this video well before the Bear collapse)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVTNB-pxIOg 450 300]

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I am leaving early today, totally disinterested with the chicanery taking place in banks. As a result of today’s melt up, I sold out of my [[FMCN]] position and I reloaded my shorts in [[TCB]]. And, I bought more [[SKF]], [[SRS]] and [[FXP]].

In addition, I threw on some hedges, going long [[UYG]], [[MS]] and [[STI]].

As an aside, I covered my shorts in [[CMA]], [[BBT]] and [[Mi]]. And, don’t forget, I am long [[WB]].

In closing, I spit on banks; but respect the fervor of the bulls buying this shit. So, until proven wrong, one way or another, I will keep a short bias—but hold sufficient longs in order to stem catastrophic days like today.

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Pick a Side Already

This back and forth action can kill traders. There is a lot of noise in the market now, ranging from arresting all short sellers to killing all banking CEO’s. If you’re trading this market, like many of you are, try to be hedged at all times.

For example:

Long Banks/Short Tech or Short Oil/Short Banks

You need to examine sectors and how they correlate to one another. Recently, airlines, retailers and automakers have been running, as oil slips. Naturally, many of you think short oil/long airlines is a good trade. However, keep in mind, that is a very levered bet. Should oil bounce, you are double fucked.

The appropriate trade is long airlines/long oil.

In my opinion, the market will keep a tight range, until the annual September-October fuckery, when everyone gets killed.

The current theme is to kill the oil speculators and those who are short banks. The common denominator is that both of those trades have been wrong, for a very long time. It’s almost as if all of the losers banded together and went out for revenge against those who have been banking coin. Egregious and erroneous behavior.

This trade will end, as all trades do.

Now is the time to identify good entry points into energy stocks, like [[CHK]], [[RIG]], [[OXY]] and [[SU]].

And, at the same time, look to sell short some fucking banks—due to the fact that the carnage is far from over.

Just to fuck around and test out iBC’s new proprietary software, I bought some [[AUXL]]. I will explain this software in greater detail at a later time. Just know, it is my brain translated into code.

Top pick: Short [[TCB]]

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Fly Sell: TCB

I sold short 15,000 [[TCB]] @ $13.05.

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