18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,152 Blog Posts

Fuck the Banks; Fuck Ag

Fuck ag and their stupid following. While it’s true, banks stocks are for asshats; ag plays are for loosers [sic]. As you know, “The Fly” is winning big today, via his [[MOS]] and [[POT]] short positions, not to mention his “overzealous” [[SMN]] holdings.

Sure, banks stocks are great. You knew [[MS]] would post a good number, no matter what. Just think, without the socialistic assistance of the Fed, most of the banks that are being bought in size here would have margin calls—and be on the brink of insolvency.

In my world, that doesn’t sound like an attractive investment opportunity.

I must admit, the whole JPM for BSC deal rubs me the wrong way. How the fuck does that deal get done @ 2 bucks? Seriously, the retarded folks at [[BSC]] got shafted, in order to save the system? Is that right?

Now, the Fed is pumping close to 600 billion dollars into the system. Some say “the Fed’s balance sheet is at the disposal of the banks.” Is that right?

Last time I checked, those Fed fuckers print money when they run out. So, essentially, they’ll just print as much as possible, in order to avert a financial crisis. Hmmm.

Well, once again, being solvent doesn’t make the stock a good investment. At the end of the day, all of the banks will be subject to intense scrutiny and regulations. Things will never be the same again.

With my money, I like my chances with [[SKF]] down here. Throw in [[SRS]] for good measure.

However, just know, if the bears are unable to mount an attack soon, this market may melt up to 12,700 soon.

Top pick: Short [[MOS]]

NOTE: With oil breaking here, I bought more [[DUG]] and [[DCR]].

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An Egregious Day for the Bears

Another 400 point rally. This is getting ridiculous. Over the last 6 months, both long and shorts have been whipsawed, by the ungodly turbulence. However, I must admit, as of late, the bulls seem to have the upper hand.

Naturally, lots of bad stuff can happen, such as egregious job loss or more earnings misses. However, it’s hard to ignore a market that just-won’t-die.

On the other hand, much of today’s rally is attributed to a new breed of short seller, via inverse ETF. Unlike old school bearshitters, the new bear is quick to cover and has little to no conviction. As a result, the market tends to rip off the heads of those who bet against it, whenever there is good news.

Going forward, I expect the market will make a lower high, at around 12,500.

But, maybe, just maybe, seasonality will allow for an extended rally, until May. If so, you’re going to want to get long some food and beverage names or tech.

For the day, I lost a massive 4.1%. However, I’ll have you know, my YTD gains are still more than 30%—so fuck off.

Off to drink myself stupid.

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Live to Fight Tomorrow

With the dollar strengthening, gold dropping and stocks exploding to the upside, I will not throw anymore retarded shorts on the barbie.

For the moment, everything is in the bulls’ favor, with the marked exception of Cramer disseminating more egregious rumors—this time regarding [[FNM]].

Nonetheless, it makes sense to go eat a ham sandwich or go bowling, instead of fixating on today’s tape.

By the way, with the GSE market normalizing, [[CMO]], [[NLY]], [[ANH]] and [[MFA]] are rallying.

Finally, it’s worth noting, overzealous investors get the proverbial knife to the chest treatment often. It’s going to be a long year, with loads of developments. Be patient and make your next move moderately.

NOTE: Oil is bucking the trend here, up on the day, while other commodities trade lower. Frankly, I don’t know what to think of it. If you want to short crude itself, sell [[USO]] or buy [[DCR]].

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Fly Buys: SMN, SRS

I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $107.89 and 3,000 [[SMN]] @ $39.27.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stock because of this post, Bernanke will cut rates by 200 bps. And, you may lose money.

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Are We Priced In?

Usually, prior to a Fed decision meeting, the markets flatline. However, as you can see, optimism, coupled with good earnings at [[LEH]] and [[GS]], is catapulting stocks higher.

The conundrum: “is the rate cut already priced in”?

For the day at least, I believe there is 200 points of foamed mouth upside, with 400 points of downside. Incredible volatility makes everyone nervous.

So, with those odds (at least in my head), I will take a shot and short stock, up at these levels.

No matter what the Fed does, DO NOT execute any trades, until 3:15, unless you’re into gambling. It’s okay to do something prior to the meeting. However, immediately following, often times there is a lot of misdirection at play.

With my money, I am buying [[SMN]], [[SRS]] and [[DGP]].

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Go Eat a Sandwich

Pardon me, I’ve been in meetings all morning. I come back, much to my chagrin, the market is up like a thousand points. What the fuck?

Taking a quick look, I can see [[GS]] and [[LEH]] posted good numbers. However, it’s worth noting, LEH lost 5 billion dollars under management for the quarter. Nonetheless, both stocks are off to the races. I will not touch them.

What really perplexes me is the fantastic run in [[BSC]]. I mean, isn’t that bitch going out at 2 bucks? Something isn’t right. Right off the bat, my default reaction says people are gambling fools.

In general, the market is gapping higher, thanks to a short squeeze. My guess, once the Fed announced their decision, we will sell off.

However, should that fucker really lose his mind and cut by 1%, there is a remote chance the market will close up 500 points plus. So, whatever you have in mind, be careful.

My approach is to wait out the rally, then pounce on a few of my favorite losers, like short [[FED]] or long [[SMN]] and [[SRS]].

In short, playing the market requires patience and conviction. It’s very easy to get scared one way or another. Luckily for “The Fly,” he drives a plutonium powered time machine.

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