About 3 weeks old, yet still brand fucking new. Funny how that shit happens.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXCJOBUpMuI 450 300]UPDATE: Latest Hendry. [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq2_L9x-6GQ 450 300]
UPDATE: Alpha penned a fantastic post.
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Ack Ack
Hugh was on last night as well in rare form. He was talking $hit to guest after guest that came on and talked about inflation. Hugh and The FLY both see the deflationary vortex. Me? I’m playing FWLT for a trade.
Hugh’s deflationary thesis bitch-slapped some “inflation” guy last night on the same program.
A li’l bit.
Hugh was good last night. Still waiting for someone to put it on youtube.
The Fly is God.
Inflation, deflation, doesn’t really matter, you’ll end up as a guest either way
interesting video. I hadn’t seen that one.
Used to get CNBC World on cable here, but TWC decided to pull it within the last two wks, must watch on line when CNBC.com streams
There have been several talking heads saying deflation first, inflation after… for a few months now. Find some news predicting when China is going to stop buying our debt — let’s get to the point already. All bets are looking to China now.
Hugh Hendry is brilliant and charismatic. He weaves quite a spell.
BUT:
If he got it wrong in 2008, why should anybody think he’s going to get it right in 2009?
Last year, he rode the primary trend — the “short dollar/long commodity” thing — into the ground. What makes you think he’s not going to run the “long dollar/deflation/government bonds” thing past the peak as well?
Dude’s up 30% las year.
I was under the impression that he was down last year.
EDITED TO ADD:
I just looked it up, and it still seems he was down last year.
However, if I’m wrong, then I rescind that last question.
Hugh Hendry links, ape gesticulations and all:
Not the Time to Invest in Inflationary Assets-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1058738082
How Sterling Affects Inflation or Deflation –
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1058770450
When Will the UK Economy Recover?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1058753794
What’s the old saying, if you owe the bank a 100 bucks, you’re in trouble, if you owe the bank a thousand bucks, the bank is in trouble … China??
If China is still running a trade surplus and the US continues to run a trade deficit, it doesn’t really matter if ” china” buy dollars or not.
China could recycle to say the EU and then the EU recycles to Japan, to make this really complicated.
Finally the Japanese would be buying us dollars.
The world’s trade balance and capital balance squares to zero in the end.
LOL…. Screaming Buy?!?
….. “wash your mouth out silly man!”
great vid.
inventories showed a drop to 6.7 months.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20090311&rss=1
Hendry’s hedge fund was way up last year, due to a long gov’t bond position which took off in Oct-Dec.
I believe he also manages an equity fund – which, by definition, has to be long equities – that fund was down, but beat its benchmark.
Good vid, thanks for posting.
Had dinner last night with an English chap. He was fully aware of the path we are going down. He thinks we will get there quicker than Britain did.
Citigroup tonight:
American Express Co. (AXP)
Sell Into Any Strength As Credit, Spend & Regulatory Risks
Loom –
Reits sell, Lowers target to $9 from $14
* The Stock – While the bid for financials has improved recently, we believe deteriorating fundamentals for AXP warrant selling into strength. We expect Q1 earnings and upcoming master trust data to be negative catalysts for the stock. We continue to favor a pair trade of overweighting V (Hold rated) and underweight AXP. Target down to $9 (slight premium to tangible BV at $7.61). We are comfortable with AXP’s capital ratios but a dividend cut seems likely.
limeys are 6 months behind.. listen to the Japs/Hungarians/ Estonians…world is in deep shit..S&P is going to 500.
Love all the asshole sells coming out on AXP, right after I fucking buy it. Those bastards are trying to debank me.
Hendry’s co-managed fund was up 33% last year, and the fund hasn’t been around much longer than a year. The latest Futures magazine interviews several fund managers who did much better than Hendry — some of them have been doing well for several years in a row. I will try to dig up their names.
Fly
What Hughey is getting wrong is that money supply does mean something.
What he’s confusing is the loss of wealth result from the fall of over priced assets with the true meaning of inflation and deflation.
We’re in a 70’s type vortex and the end result will be some pretty gruesome inflation.
The dude is buying government bonds and (still is) which has to be the worst investment in a generation.
Hughndry is right about the corp bond market but equities can stage quite good rallies despite dire warnings from the corp bond market. Last June, corp bonds were giving off such signals, yet equities didn’t catch up to the downside until september.
We’re in such a moment now. Any rally will give up the ghost unless the corp bond market rights itself. Unlikely. In fact, there is evidence of money market panic growing.
Keep one foot out the door.
Fly, The PPT advertisement banners at the top of the page are fucking hilarious. You pwn the internets.
There is a likely a second half of 2009 slow market recovery. It’s also likely we will see lower lows in the interim. Hence my move to cash yesterday. I’m losing my appetite for risk. I may miss something but I’ve said it before, “If I’m not losing in the stock market, then I win”.
Aye laddie, I’m GARR-AND-TEED SEX!!…….. (PAHRCENT)!!
(Check out 2:48 where he’s looking for his keys, too funny).
______________
John Paulson is the leading investor today – you must pay attention to this fucker – he just made another big return with his position in ROH taken over by DOW.
Second half slow market recovery ? Hmmm I think maybe the second half of 2010. We have to go through to many waves of credit crisis ie: credit cards, auto loans, student loans etc.
Secondly, what about people who dont/cant paying their mortgages? I can bet that they dont pay their RE taxes, which gives the middle grundle finger to local and state govs.
What about folks who lost their jobs over the past 18 months ? I mean people who where making 200k 300k 500k decent coin and getting taxed on it. The government is getting kicked in the nuts by not collecting those taxed dollars. I think everyone sees where I’m coming from.
In addition to all of this people are going to start milking food stamps, section 8, heap etc which is going to add to the paid unemployment so its going to be 5 fold.
All in all i seriously doubt within the next 8 months turns start turning around. Thoughts anyone ?
fly quit it with the T.O. attitude, no one wants to see you fail, you’re paranoid.
as long as you’re going to make these assumptions, might as well assume that people are out to HELP you, in some strange way or another. i.e. they’re trying to “teach you lessons”, to make you better at facing adversity and dealing with chalenges… at least with that attitude you can gain something from it, rather then hate…. just an idea, but I’m just a peasant to lord fly.
For those asking how Hugh has been making money.
He had long commodity exposure via potash and other bullshit fertilizer crap heading to zerolast year. But, when the trend broke and shit started dropping faster than a sac of shit, he took his losses. That’s the losing part. The part that offset his losing year was a twofold bet.
First, he made a leveraged bet on US gvt bonds in mid 2008 and caught a huge move. I remember he came on CNBC late in December, and said he was taking most of the position off because the move had been faster and more intense than he predicted. So, in essence, he made a perfect trade.
Second, he began shorting the Icelandic Kroner in late 2007 and when the troubles in Iceland started to emerge in early to mid 2008, he added leverage and caught a massive move when Iceland collapsed in October 2008.
As for 2009, he’s making 3 big trades.
1) Shorting stocks
2) Buying CDS’s on Mexico, Eastern European countries and China debt. He believes China will seriously hit the shitter going forward, despite the consensus view being that China will stabilize in the +5% GDP growth area
3) Buying US dollars and US government bonds (repositioning the trade he made last year).
Disclosure: I love this guy!
FAS new highs and rising
anyone have a view on X here?
Sharif don’t like it
Rock the FASbah, Rock the FASbah.
TNA come get some ham!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSdVTPsNhbE&feature=related
Hugh’s always a class act. it’s like he can’t sit still for more than couple seconds. However yesterday he took the grandiose to another level – he was on fire. Great thing is his conviction and honesty unlike 99% of the cnbc talking heads.
FAS will certainly line my pockets this morning
I woke up late. Anyone know the reason for the big reverse higher?
Moe
On the macro side
Retail sales were a little better than expected and the previous month had an upward revision.
yen has behaved like a real bad ass today.
I went to dinner, got back and was luck enough to buy dollar yen at 95.95 after it had been down to 95.67. Released those little fuckers at 97.20 and now I’m sucking wind without a position and its trading at 98.20.
The market is up because Benanke, Geithner and Obama met this morning and decided they wanted to debank a certain short by the name of TMOE . True story.
Thanks j
I see there is a jump in crude and XOM and CVX also
Are you still playing the AUD/US$
Nothing big in the news. My theory is that just like when we first broke DJIA 9k and then 8k, there was at least, a reversion to the 9.5k and 8.5k
Oh CAP,
That wouldn’t shock me. the first place the Government looks to point the finger during market declines is the shorts. Blame the shorts is the game they play, refusing to look at their own misteps
So GE gets a pop the day they receive a cut in their credit rating? I guess it was already priced in
Just jobbing it, moe.
Don’t have position at the moment. Fucking thing should go down, but it’s not going. There’s a lot cross border shit going on with China and the miners so I think that may be holding it.
bought a little X below $18 .
Here is the end result of a simple psychological distortion of reality.
http://www.libertyforlife.com/images/prisonstudies-org.jpg
FAS broke 4.36 without hitting overbought levels $$
BOOM about to run again. broke up from an ascending wedge on 5 day 1 min chart
great calls by FLY RC and GENERAL ALPHA.
chivas:
what are you thinking of this market here.
Here’s what I reckon. If GE is now trading higher than yesterdays high despite a down grade this entire market is heading higher.
J,
i think we go a lot higher.
i own 2 mill shrs of GE at 8.02.
SPX 750 at least
Chivas
Good luck. thanks.
Obama is about to speak on the stimulus. Could we see a meltdown?
Larry Krudlow….shut the fuck up you loud mouthed irritating asshat!!!!!!!!!!!
when you shout here do you think Larry can hear you?
Issue of the day: If BOOM makes a run to the upside will MOOBER become BOOMER?
Time will tell.
the answer is yes, there is a nosey gossup queen that is on the payroll of CNBC that her job is to monitor this site and relay all messaged to said hosts of CNBC.
on other news, does anyone know what the fuck is going on with LDK? it has fallen off a cliff here lately and I can’t find any news that offers reasons for such a sell off, I see downgrades but what company hasn’t been downgraded lately……
also MTG has fallen into the abyss today.
When is Barry supposed to talk?