Cashing in My Chips

Wed Feb 17, 2010 11:24am EST 46

I woke up this morning and decided to cash in my chips, head the fuck home and eat sandwiches until the Sun explodes.

I know this will throw many of you into mental sinkholes; I upped my cash position to 50% this morning.

DUN,DUN,DUN, DUNNNNNNNNNN.

As soon as the market opened, I started selling out of positions, with great vigor, just because I can.

I sold out of Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , 25% of POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , 90% of [[TAN]] , Corinthian Colleges, Inc. [[COCO]] , 50% of Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. [[MSO]] and Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] . I held onto some names, mainly because I can’t go “Brittney” and shave all of my hair off at once. Instead, I went to 50% cash, like a gentleman sipping on a fancy glass of single malt Scotch. Should the market continue to rally, I will sell another 10% of my holdings, going to a maximum 60% cash. At this point, I simply cannot go to 100% cash, with exception to my personal trading accounts.

At the present, I still own some POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] , [[TAN]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] , GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [[GSK]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Visa Inc. [[V]] , Vimpel-Communications (ADR) [[VIP]] and [[CBD]] .

The rationale behind my drastic change in opinion cannot be understood by people with IQ’s less than 155. Therefore, as a result of this conundrum, I will not attempt to explain my actions to you. Just know and understand, football is great and chicks look hot in bikinis. Also know, beer tastes great icy cold.

Special Midnight Message for the Bears

Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:33pm EST 38

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5QGkOGZubQ&feature=related 616 500]

Comments »

Today’s Market Summary

Tue Feb 16, 2010 3:48pm EST 37

in video.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iwmLrA2vs0&feature=related 616 500]

“Doughnuts don’t wear alligator shoes.”

-A Great Man

NOTE: I am now up more than 8% for the year.

Comments »

Fly Buy: JAH

Tue Feb 16, 2010 3:33pm EST 8

I bought 5,000 Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , north of $31.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy JAH because of this post, rabid dogs will eat your cat. And, you may lose money.

Comments »

Fly Sell: MAS, ATPG, EWP

Tue Feb 16, 2010 2:10pm EST 21

I sold out of Masco Corporation [[MAS]] , north of $14 and ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , north of $17.30.

UPDATE: I sold out of [[EWP]] , north of $41.10.

Comments »

Remember to Take Profits

Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:16pm EST 20

I probably won’t sell a whole lot today, mainly because I am stubborn in my bullishness. I am embedded in this market until pigs fly. However, some of you lesser folks out there may want to book some gains here, just in case.

I am looking forward to earnings out of Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] tonight. They should be a blowout. And, look for the company to discuss plans to market a single server coffee maker, licensed from Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , under the venerable Mr. Coffee brand. Thus far, sales out of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. [[BBBY]] and Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] have been terrific. There is not reason to believe Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] will disappoint.

The metals are surging, based upon reports of “restocking inventories.” For more than a year, inventories have been lean. Look for businesses to restock on steel, copper and other metals, forcing capacity utilization rates higher. Firms like United States Steel Corporation [[X]] and Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] stand to benefit greatly from an uptick in demand.

Tech stocks are surging. My favorite name in the space is TEKELEC [[TKLC]] .

Finally, the dollar is getting trashed, as predicted here by myself and Uncle “fucker” Jake. Gold stocks have my blessing. My fav is Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] .

NOTE: The Overall Hybrid score is high. How high? Go subscribe to find out, you damn leeches.

Comments »

“The Fly” Wins Again

Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:39am EST 16

Betting against “The Fly” is like going to Vegas and putting your life savings into the fucking slot machines. From time to time, you will win a few bucks, giving you the courage to bet again. However, at the end of the day, you are borrowing money to get home—because you lost it all betting against the house.

NEVER bet against The House of “The Fly,” especially for a duration of longer than 1 week. Eventually the laws of nature come into play and I win, such is the case today.

I am enjoying the splendor of winship today, all thanks and praise to those dastardly “buy only” robots at Goldman and the Federal Reserve.

From POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] to Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] to United States Steel Corporation [[X]] to ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , I am winning.

However, now that the winning is out of the way, some of you may want to book some profits—just in case.

NOTE: I was going to get into detail about Chinese superstitions over the year of the tiger aka “widow year” and how weddings were up 100%, yoy, just prior to the new year and how Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] could stand to benefit from such a social shift; but I changed my mind. You fuckers don’t deserve anything by the black flag.

Comments »

Goldman Sachs Killed Elvis

Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:06am EST 53

In general, I don’t like people. People are full of shit, selfish, upright walking pigs, always trying to further their nefarious agendas. Instead friends, I have acquaintances that can be utilized for personal or business purposes. The main difference: I am forthright in my intentions. This is a very important distinction between a hermit, which describes most of you internet shuffle board motherfuckers, and a person (“The Fly”) who plays the game of life as if it was a fucking chess board.

I will beat you senseless with a Panamanian sugarcane, straight from the ever ominous “Darien Gap.”

Many of my old colleagues crave the attention of others. And, like dogs, they beg for “social bones”, by way of depraved parties and/or internet communique. Let me tell you something right now: avoid such people as if they were the bubonic plague itself.

As for Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] :

Next to Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , there is no better institution in the United States. All of the conspiracy bullshit surrounding Goldman puts a smile on my face; because, like “The Fly,” those fuckers aren’t interested in making friends. As a man with large testicles and excess testosterone, I am proud of the crazy bastards from Goldman, even if they killed Elvis.

Comments »

Seasonality Requests

Mon Feb 15, 2010 4:09pm EST 13

Netflix, Inc. [[NFLX]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	8.216%	5	3	86	75	0	-0.01
February	4.984%	4	4	69	73	1	0.26
March	8.390%	6	1	73	78	2	0.04
April	-1.647%	4	3	72	70	3	-0.12
May	3.765%	2	5	70	77	0	-0.01
June	1.010%	4	4	90	80	0	-0.29
July	-5.266%	4	4	87	83	0	-0.08
August	0.887%	3	5	83	89	4	-0.21
September	5.496%	7	1	77	87	0	0.03
October	8.910%	5	3	83	94	1	0.27
November	3.316%	5	3	76	85	1	-0.18
December	5.907%	5	3	89	81	0	0.17

Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	1.983%	5	8	140	122	0	-0.04
February	-3.969%	6	7	136	95	6	-0.52
March	7.002%	9	3	133	128	2	0.04
April	11.366%	8	4	124	122	2	0.55
May	2.105%	7	5	118	134	1	-0.3
June	7.541%	7	6	134	137	5	0.55
July	1.589%	7	6	145	125	5	0.07
August	2.371%	7	6	141	140	3	0
September	12.064%	10	3	133	128	1	-0.16
October	4.348%	7	6	137	151	1	0.42
November	10.545%	9	4	123	140	1	-0.03
December	3.365%	5	8	139	133	3	-0.09

ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	-7.944%	4	5	93	83	6	0.03
February	-3.288%	3	6	79	80	2	-0.08
March	21.842%	5	4	89	105	1	0.37
April	3.624%	5	4	89	93	5	-0.17
May	9.739%	5	4	79	110	2	-0.25
June	4.262%	4	5	86	99	6	-0.01
July	-1.317%	3	6	101	87	2	-0.14
August	4.831%	4	5	97	98	4	-0.18
September	4.339%	4	5	90	82	7	-0.4
October	0.797%	4	5	90	104	7	-0.05
November	-5.743%	4	5	105	77	1	0.02
December	1.855%	5	4	87	101	2	-0.33

Applied Materials, Inc. [[AMAT]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	9.048%	16	10	202	245	93	0.03
February	6.240%	15	10	203	222	63	0.44
March	1.728%	13	12	230	233	82	-0.14
April	5.071%	15	9	211	215	91	0.43
May	4.454%	13	11	225	227	77	-0.37
June	-2.245%	9	16	237	219	78	0.19
July	3.436%	13	12	218	233	79	0.04
August	0.299%	12	12	237	222	93	0.09
September	-5.113%	9	16	233	201	73	-0.23
October	-1.712%	9	17	240	242	96	-0.33
November	3.275%	16	9	211	229	90	-0.11
December	3.807%	14	11	226	224	99	0.21

Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	-0.581%	7	10	172	151	24	-0.01
February	3.708%	11	6	125	160	28	-0.24
March	12.267%	14	3	152	180	38	-0.71
April	7.451%	11	6	140	177	31	-0.49
May	6.616%	9	8	160	166	33	0.26
June	3.414%	6	9	168	167	26	-0.37
July	-4.544%	6	11	177	151	27	-0.08
August	5.359%	10	7	176	172	25	0.06
September	5.662%	10	7	155	169	19	-0.23
October	0.752%	8	9	168	183	25	0.08
November	0.082%	8	9	161	167	18	-0.04
December	1.085%	9	8	171	161	28	0.1

Lennox International Inc. [[LII]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	2.730%	5	6	108	110	5	-0.95
February	6.195%	9	2	86	109	6	-0.76
March	0.388%	6	4	104	110	4	-0.1
April	1.288%	5	5	109	93	4	0.46
May	2.761%	4	6	107	103	3	-0.13
June	2.714%	5	5	107	95	11	-0.57
July	4.385%	5	5	100	106	5	1.05
August	0.387%	7	4	126	109	9	-0.26
September	-8.497%	2	9	121	94	5	0.27
October	-3.362%	4	7	119	118	7	-0.42
November	4.654%	8	3	101	116	8	0.09
December	4.397%	7	4	96	130	6	0.22

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. [[BECN]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	5.659%	5	1	58	61	1	0.12
February	-2.392%	3	3	54	50	1	0.12
March	8.575%	4	1	49	59	1	0.1
April	2.994%	3	2	47	55	1	-0.05
May	5.841%	4	1	52	51	3	-0.05
June	-4.181%	1	4	57	48	3	-0.26
July	2.358%	2	3	53	51	1	0.04
August	5.142%	4	1	58	52	1	-0.03
September	-2.139%	2	3	54	46	2	0.13
October	-10.668%	0	5	59	51	1	0.14
November	-0.463%	3	3	63	56	4	-0.01
December	3.079%	4	2	59	64	4	-0.03

Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	5.874%	3	2	50	50	0	0.54
February	-5.363%	2	3	50	36	0	0.28
March	-14.359%	1	3	45	41	1	0.21
April	28.309%	4	0	31	48	3	-0.39
May	-0.150%	2	2	44	40	1	-0.81
June	1.265%	2	2	45	39	2	-0.58
July	1.888%	1	3	45	37	3	0.68
August	7.112%	2	3	52	57	2	1.08
September	0.926%	3	2	51	49	2	0.43
October	-3.796%	3	2	53	52	6	0.92
November	-17.462%	1	4	58	43	1	0.09
December	2.690%	3	2	49	53	3	0.16

Microvision, Inc. [[MVIS]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	0.037%	7	7	151	123	10	-0.18
February	6.203%	6	7	130	115	13	-0.27
March	-0.647%	7	6	131	139	13	-0.13
April	4.534%	7	6	137	124	9	0.48
May	9.015%	10	3	122	144	8	-0.02
June	-0.092%	4	9	143	124	11	-0.03
July	-4.520%	6	7	148	116	12	0.03
August	2.288%	6	7	145	125	16	-0.02
September	0.273%	5	9	136	129	17	-0.09
October	-0.367%	6	7	152	139	21	-0.08
November	3.051%	8	6	145	124	15	-0.5
December	8.013%	7	7	151	131	15	-0.08

Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	-2.024%	2	5	77	63	0	0.29
February	15.688%	7	0	54	68	2	0.16
March	4.913%	4	2	69	63	0	-0.08
April	-5.464%	3	3	71	51	2	0.16
May	5.619%	3	3	61	62	3	0.88
June	0.539%	3	3	69	58	2	-0.31
July	-3.409%	3	3	61	61	4	0.1
August	-9.690%	1	5	73	57	3	0.23
September	12.314%	4	2	62	59	2	0
October	-5.727%	2	5	76	72	7	-0.59
November	8.857%	5	2	57	84	1	-0.82
December	14.807%	4	3	67	78	4	0.84

Comments »

Sneak Peek into PPT 2.0

Sun Feb 14, 2010 6:05pm EST 48

The Overbought/Oversold indicator (OB/OS) will try to identify stocks that are bottoming or topping out, based upon a sublime harmony in mathematical precision (S.H.I.M.P) aka The PPT. Here are the most recent readings, courtesy of the generous and gregarious folks at iBC:

OVERBOUGHT (HYBRID):

count: 112
CDCS
HWK
BPAX
RNN
NENG
SLTM
RMTR
TCBK
ZIXI
XXIA
WIBC
WEN
VR
VIVO
UVV
UTI
USNA
UNFI
UAUA
TXN
TRST
TINY
THS
TDS
SWHC
SLE
SIGI
SHOO
SHFL
RPM
RIMM
RBCAA
PPG
POWI
PNY
PNFP
PM
PHM
PGR
PGNX
PEET
OPLK
ONNN
OMCL
OIIM
NYB
NVDA
NTCT
NSIT
NLS
NJR
NETL
NDN
MYL
MTH
MPWR
MOT
MKTX
MKC
MHO
MFE
MCRL
MCHP
MAT
LUB
LEN
LCC
KLIC
KEP
KCP
JCG
ISRG
ISIL
INDB
IKAN
IHS
ID
HSIC
HRC
HEK
GSIC
GROW
GFF
GCOM
G
EZCH
ERIE
EQR
EDE
EAT
DEO
DCOM
CRUS
CRI
CRDN
CPLA
CMI
CCMP
CCI
CAVM
CAKE
BTI
BRCM
BRC
BLL
AVT
ATR
ASH
ASCMA
ARW
AMR
ACTL

OVERBOUGHT (TECH):

count: 105
PMT
NATH
HWK
BPAX
RNN
TCBK
XBI
ITB
XXIA
WTW
WIBC
WEN
VPHM
UVV
TRV
TRMB
TNH
TG
TDS
STXS
STNR
SSI
SLH
SIGI
SAFT
ROLL
RNOW
RIMM
REGN
RDWR
RBC
Q
PTIE
PM
PIM
PHM
PGR
PGNX
PCTI
OSBC
OMCL
OIIM
NYB
NVO
NVDA
NSL
NPO
NEWP
NETL
MWIV
MWA
MTH
MKTX
MHO
MCRS
MCRL
MAR
LUV
LQDT
LLL
LH
LFL
LEN
LCC
KSWS
KSU
KEP
KCP
JOE
ISYS
ISIL
INDB
IN
IKAN
HVT
HSIC
HRC
HME
HEK
GWR
GSIC
GFF
GCOM
GAIN
G
ERIE
CRDN
COO
COLM
CMI
CITP
CIK
CCMP
CCI
CAVM
BTI
BRC
BNS
BLL
BHE
BEBE
ATR
ARG
AMR
AFG

OVERSOLD (HYBRID):

count: 11
THLD
TSP
STD
RMIX
QXM
PT
NOK
MT
HCN
DRE

OVERSOLD (TECH):

count: 9
PXF
IDV
ADRD
DWM
VGK
VEA
IEV
HYG
EFA

And, we are building a seasonality engine, that will be scaled in so many ways your heads will explode from joy.

Here is a sample for Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	0.618%	2	7	84	94	4	-0.32
February	-0.750%	4	5	80	75	7	0.49
March	6.810%	5	3	81	92	0	-0.48
April	8.135%	5	3	73	89	5	0
May	7.668%	6	2	74	93	2	-0.03
June	2.161%	5	3	82	86	2	-0.22
July	-3.775%	3	6	92	92	7	-0.42
August	3.989%	6	3	99	96	4	-0.17
September	-5.281%	4	5	83	90	6	0.66
October	3.415%	6	3	86	105	10	0.44
November	6.174%	6	3	79	102	2	0.52
December	7.464%	6	3	91	97	2	-0.3