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MBI is entirely screwed.
This is a nice rally, but I get the sense the credit crisis is about to accelerate.
Right now, MBI, ABK and ETFC appear to be racing to zero, albeit ETFC is in the lead; but MBI is catching up fast.
If you happen to be long any financial stock, it might be a good idea to swap it for tech or ag.
As you know, “The Fly” placed a large bet on VMI. Thus far, it’s working, up almost 4 bucks.
MVIS has to work here. The whole “MVIS to the moon dream” of mine cannot end with a whimper. Once again, my “sources” tell me they (MVIS) will “blow the fucking doors off of CES.”
As always, we’ll see.
Finally, with any available funds, I intend to buy MVIS, VMI, HANS, FMCN and CLX.
In short, this rally is very suspect. Don’t get suckered into semi’s or financials, yet.Comments »
RIMM is oversold, by the way.
According to recent ADP stats (we added 189,000 jobs), the job market is on-fucking-fire.
So, not only is the economy humming along, we get rate cuts to boot.
Sounds like a perfect recipe to break a few bear noses.
Which brings me to my next point: Why did Jeremy (iBankCoin’s webmaster) put up an incomplete page for Woodshedder? Is he (Jeremy) back on the crack pipe?
As you know, we are changing the themes of the fucking blogs. Orange was supposed to be the dominant color, yet Jeremy “pearl harbored” me and went with blue. Unacceptable.
We’re off to a bad start already.
Aside from that, life appears to be somewhat ok, with the futures pointing higher and Rick “the hillbilly” Santelli still without straight teeth.
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This is a ridiculously tough tape.
It’s a tale of two cities, in almost every sector.
Look at retail. One one hand, AZO, JCG, JWN and FOSL look good, while PVH, EBHI, JAKK, GES and CWTR shit the shower.
In summary, it’s a stock pickers market.
Looking at some of my positions, I am tempted to add more RIMM, MVIS, CLX, VMI and FXP (just in case).
In my opinion, GRMN can’t be doing well, while RIMM suffers. Something is wrong.
Either GRMN is too rich or RIMM is too cheap.
I choose the latter.
Finally, my “shotgun to the head pick,” VMI, did well in today’s tape, partly thanks to strength in agriculture related names. With fresh cash, I would buy it, all day, under $85.Comments »
Yet again, I missed out on this sector.
It is melting up to the sun, pun intended.
As you know, the “go to stock” in the solar sector, today, is SOLF. The name of the company is “Solarfun.”
Prior to buying the stock, understand, the founder must be mentally ill, naming his company “Solarfun” & shit.
Here is a small list of solar stocks with mojo:
SOLF, ASTI, ASTIZ, HOKU, CSIQ, CSUN, AKNS, TSL and LDK.
What has a bank done for you lately?
We should all take our money out of those shit holes, and put the money into safety deposit boxes.
The bankers, they’re assholes. I have lots of “friends” in the mortgage business and they’re loan monkeys. In the past, they’d give loans to just about anyone.
Now, all of a sudden, the banks have truck loads of “non-cash write offs.”
Thus far, today’s finance losers include: NFI, RDN, PNSN, DSL, PCAP, WM, FED, MS, BSC, CCRT and BCS.
The winners include: BBX, MXB, FCSX, CORS, IVZ and ACGL.
Despite having open losing trades on ACF, I would avoid the sector, until another “good shoe drops.”
Typically, upon good news, the sector runs for several days. The trend is definitely down. So, trying to time the bottom can be cumbersome.
Just take them off the screen— and wait for some news to get back in.Comments »
Now, I’m aware of the remote possibility that my “calculator brain” could malfunction, effectively gettingthe VMI trade/investment wrong. But, I doubt it.
See, while Woodfucker is busy in his honey hole, “The Fly” is in a fox hole, poking people with his bayonet, searching for money making trades.
It’s December. There is no more time to fuck around.
In the early going of 2007, I was hitting homerun after homerun, then grandslams. However, unfortunately, over the past 6 months, I have given back most of my gains and now stand +9% for the year.
In other words, I need to get this last big trade right. VMI is my largest position. It will work because I say it will.
Worldwide, populations are soaring. For the first time in decades, despite advancements in technology, food supplies are inadequate.
Witness the “pasta protests” in Italy or “tortilla rallies” in Mexico.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute: “Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain – of rice, wheat and maize – are down at levels not seen since the early 80s.”
And, our idiotic politicians think it’s a good idea to burn corn. We are burning food, while food is scarce—always good for a commodity bull run.
The problem is just getting started. Apparently, countries are drawing from their national stocks, which will soon be emptied.
The cupboard will be bare.
Observers estimate, within 12-24 months, growing nations like China and India will go into the open market and bid up the price of food commodities, in order to restock supplies.
Naturally, this will bode poorly for global inflation doves, as the price of pork, beef, chicken and vegetables bust through the fucking ceiling. Nonetheless, there is always hope, right?
To top the shit sundae off, fresh water supplies are dwindling, partly thanks to global warming (think LNN, VMI).
For the record, this all sounds somewhat ominous to me.
Anyway, the way to play the ag boom is via buying commodity related stocks or commodities, of course.
Here’s an extensive list agricultural related equities:
LNN: Irrigation Systems.
VMI: Irrigation Systems.
MON: Seeds and Genomics. Sweet spot for worldwide famine.
SYT: Another Seed fucker.
AG: Farm equipment.
DE: Farm equipment.
ARTW: Farm equipment.
CNH: Farm equipment with a finance arm.
BG: Fertilizers, big food commodity player, edible oil maker.
ADM: Corn fuckers, amongst other commodities.
More risky plays include:
NOEC: Chinese fertilizer.
SEED: Seeds in China.
DRYS: They ship fertilizers, amongst many other things.
GRO: Chinese Seeds and sheep breeding products (no, I am not making this up).
MOO: Agriculture equity ETF, which holds the following positions: Mosaic, Monsanto, Potash, Komatsu, Yara Int’l 5.1%, IOI, Wilmar, CNH Global, Bunge.
DBC: sweet crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.
JJG: 42.6% soybeans, 35.8% wheat and 21.6% corn.
COW: 67.9% cattle and 32.1% lean hogs.
JJA: 28% soybeans, 23.6% wheat, 14.3% corn, 9.9% soybean oil, cotton 9.3%, coffee 8%, sugar 7%,
RJA: 20% wheat, corn 13.6%, cotton 11.6%, soybeans 8.6%, sugar 5.7%, live cattle 5.7%, coffee 5.7%, rubber 2.9%, lumber 2.9%, lean hogs 2.9%, cocoa, 2.9%, soybean meal 2.15%, canola, 1.92%, orange juice 1.89%, adzuki beans 1.43%, rice 1.43%, oats 1.43%, barley 0.77%, greasy wool 0.72%.
I’m sure there are more “plays,” but this will have to suffice.
In short, the more I research the ag sector, the more I believe in the long term growth prospects. Almost everyone I know is bullish on food commodities, even the bears. Naturally, the trade can become crowded and result in swift poleaxing.
However, the fundamentals demand long term accumulation, with patience being a virtue.
If Jim Rogers is correct, food commodity prices will be 2-3 times what they are now, enabling the above stocks and ETF’s to bank you a little coin.
In other words: Milk the Farmer.Comments »