I woke up this morning and decided to cash in my chips, head the fuck home and eat sandwiches until the Sun explodes.
I know this will throw many of you into mental sinkholes; I upped my cash position to 50% this morning.
DUN,DUN,DUN, DUNNNNNNNNNN.
As soon as the market opened, I started selling out of positions, with great vigor, just because I can.
I sold out of Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , 25% of POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , 90% of [[TAN]] , Corinthian Colleges, Inc. [[COCO]] , 50% of Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. [[MSO]] and Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] . I held onto some names, mainly because I can’t go “Brittney” and shave all of my hair off at once. Instead, I went to 50% cash, like a gentleman sipping on a fancy glass of single malt Scotch. Should the market continue to rally, I will sell another 10% of my holdings, going to a maximum 60% cash. At this point, I simply cannot go to 100% cash, with exception to my personal trading accounts.
At the present, I still own some POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] , [[TAN]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] , GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [[GSK]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , Visa Inc. [[V]] , Vimpel-Communications (ADR) [[VIP]] and [[CBD]] .
The rationale behind my drastic change in opinion cannot be understood by people with IQ’s less than 155. Therefore, as a result of this conundrum, I will not attempt to explain my actions to you. Just know and understand, football is great and chicks look hot in bikinis. Also know, beer tastes great icy cold.
Take a break when
you can get one
Boldly done, sir…
10.10.10
“I can’t go ‘Brittney’ and shave all of my hair off at once.” lol
“At this point, I simply cannot go to 100% cash, with exception to my personal trading accounts.”
Am I to read that your personal accounts are at 100% cash?
no. my personal account is about 50% too,
(cough! cough! ) Pussy! (cough!)
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Fly, did you sell out of GMCR because of this?
http://dinersjournal.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/the-trifecta-comes-to-town/
Keurig no more
No. Bunn is licensing from Keurig.
respect
FLY, the PPT score must have gone over 3?? reason for the sell
Score was 3.15 as of yesterday’s close.
doing some more covering and selling today taking some gains and some losses. all in all I am up nicely for the year./
Some of current holdings:
Short TOL, GE, LVS, BAC
Long GMCR, GLD, SLV, ISLN, IBB, DRR, TBT
Cash now 40%
Looking for an opportunity to short a few names like UPL which ripped my face off last week. Also APOL, LUFK,
If “The Fly” was an ETF, the Vix would break.
THAT’S A DAMN LIE, and you know it.
I cashed out totally yesterday. Just havin’ a feeling…
I did the same yesterday – went 75% cash holding TBT and a few other small positions. Dumped PAL and EXK. I will get back in on dips.
I knew the Fly was indeed still God. Very well done, sir. I am thoroughly impressed. I am now interested in seeing how you handle Black Swan part Deux. You are an ingenious trader indeed.
We know you are just kidding, Fly. You must still be bullish. I went ALL-IN this morning via triple leveraged long ETF’s. This market will NEVER go down to stay. I will not sell on any market drops from here on. They are just always bought. Mondays are always up. See you at S&P 1150 (then beyond…).
Now I wonder if this is related to Charlie Gasparino going to Fox News. LOL. Honestly, I believe Charlie was livid in 2008, when he was forced to work countless hours, and refused to have to do it again in Black Swan Part Deux. This is indeed a tell for what’s about to come.
I just finished reading all 500 pages of Charlie’s book. I hope he was getting paid by the page, because he repeated himself many times.
While I respect his determination to commit everything he knew to paper, the story-telling was way too detailed to create excitement. There was a lack of cohesiveness and a theme.
http://tinyurl.com/yf4ejzd
Charlie got roid rage and left the only viable financial network, for the Land of Beck.
Hey Buddy
“Land of Beck?”
Appropos, no?
Soooooooyyyyyyy………
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HYC making its breakout run
Charlie is going to Fox. That suits him you know. It’s the land of the blind on that fox channel.
“Who is this Charlie? We’ve been fighting our way through this jungle for months and everybody keeps saying “look out for Charlie” but haven’t run into anyone named Charlie…We keep running into VC but not one of them is named Charlie”
carry on.
Charlie is an over-paid no-nothing, hence his name, Gasparino, which means gasbag in Italian.
“Last” we call him.
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It doesn’t matter whether it’s VC or Charlie.
Napalm takes care of the situation.
Ke Sanh redux.
I like this move, getting out of consumer stocks and China/infrastructure growth while sticking with Brazil and India through telecomm, commodities, and drug companies. I like being poised for inflation while also defensive and playing an industry that is tangibly growing (telecomm). I still think money can be grown faster than sitting in C though.
I’m light here as some of my trades hit their target which in my case means my short puts were virtually worthless.
The gap from yesterday needs filling, I will just sit back and wait before reloading.
TA, honestly, Fly knows what he’s doing. I would follow his lead and sell. I am at 85% short right now, and will make it 100% on any upward move. Yesterday was painful, but I didn’t close any position, I added since I know this market is toast.
I sell puts which erode based on both time AND price.
It doesn’t always make sense to close out positions based on temporary price fluctuations as slippage will often kill any profit.
I have closed a few positions as the trades were done and will not reload until as we are reaching overbought. That’s the closest I come to short term timing.
Obviously I totally disagree with you about the market being toast.
Jake’s PMs are just taking off here.
Fool buys MNKD
http://ibankcoin.com/henry_fool/2010/02/17/buy-8000-mknd/
(His spooky avatar aside, Henry has always been a friend of Mankind.)
__
Fly,
Take your 50% cash position and go all in on SIRI.
After a miracle 5 day rally that undid my 25% loss two Fridays ago, i went completely flat yesterday.
I will wait to strike until the time is right.
Seems like a lot of people don’t believe we go higher… curious to anyone else? I’m about 25% cash myself, but there seems to be a disproportionate number of people speaking the same line.
Now, if you were a member of the PPT, you would see my comment on Fly’s most recent PPT blog post on the matter (#13 of the comments therein, I believe), which would provide ample (counter) argument to the company line, as held.
Everyone else will have to wait til tonight, wherein I shall ex-POUND further.
___________
Upping cash position ehhh?
Little bit scared, arent we?
WHUHAHAAHAHHAAHHA (evil laugh)
IQ tests are stupid… I personally got a 120 a while back (not great, around average I suppose);
James Wood (yes, the actor), has an IQ of 180, and Madonna has a 140…yuppp…..
http://www.aceviper.net/estimated_iq_of_famous_people.php
Agree, that list is stupid. How can they honestly estimate Plato’s IQ? Give me a break…
Fuck Jimmy Woods. What is Johnny Drama’s IQ?
You take 2 glass pots – boil water in one and put filter in other – grind beans that have been stored in refrig in airtight container and not more than 30 days since roasting – remove boiling water and allow 1 minute cooling – pour thru other glass pot with the coffee in filter – Voila! Add nothing – good coffee has a somewhat sweet taste.
Just this morning, Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman kindly told you that stocks were undervalued, why would you sell?
With all due respect to Senor Mosca, I echo the sentiment that he is part of the herd that is leaning the wrong way. Today is likely the end of the selling stampede that began on January 20th. Small caps have been outperforming the past week or so and small cap outperformance is one of the “tells” for a market that wants to go higher.
Personal preference here is for the S&P to go sideways for a bit before moving up through 1100. In my experience, a “blast” thru 1100 would be highly susceptible to a reversal whereas some consolidation prior to the move up increases/minimizes the odds of success/failure of the move.
fid