18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,924 Blog Posts

Fly’s Top 10 Holdings

1. [[FXP]]

2. [[SKF]]

3. Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]]

4. short TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]]

5. short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]]

6. [[SRS]]

7. [[REW]]

8. short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]]

9. [[DUG]]

10. Lockheed Martin Corporation [[LMT]]

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Plug Me Back Into The Matrix

I hate this shit sometimes. It’s days like this that makes my blood boil and cause my temper to rage out of control.

I just want to get plugged back into the matrix. I want to drink wine, eat a few dozen rib eyes (heavily salted) and throw shit at my trader/servant.

Instead, I get to deal with this motherless whore of a market. Up and down, up and down, when it stops you get fucked by a clown.

Sure, the commodities got busted out; but that’s it bucko. The last oasis has been carpet bombed by assholes in a Federal Reserve A-10 warthog.

My bottom fishing into Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] proved to be somewhat fruitful, with most of my shares getting printed below $78. Also, I enjoyed big gains in [[FXP]] , [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , [[DUG]] , [[TWM]] and short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] .

My TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] short enjoyed a little green. I’ll kill that bitch after I’m done with my AGU trade.

I cannot stress to you enough how cataclysmic this commodity debacle is for the financial industry. Recently, a whole slew of pensions and asset managers upped their weightings in commodities, only to be fucked like a dog a few months later.

That’s it. It’s all over.

Go enjoy your bank stocks. I’ll be in Romania, tending to my mountain goats, while practicing my rock throwing accuracy.

NOTE: For the day I was up 1.44%.

NOTE II: Because I’ve been all over the road, tonight I will post my top 10 holdings.

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Buy the Blood?

The commodity related stocks have been ape raped. Is now the time to buy them?

Well, looking back on past dips, the answer is unequivocally yes. However, understanding the Fed’s desire to justify low interest rates, in order to help the banks, commodities need to have their comeuppance.

The following are on my commodity watch list:

FCX , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] , Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Olympic Steel, Inc. [[ZEUS]] , Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc [[CLF]] .

Pretty bloody, eh?

Today’s decline makes me want to go drive out to some fucking farm and burn it down. I want to take a John Deere tractor and drive it into a sinkhole.

Nonetheless, it’s worth noting, my AGU position is minimal. But still, 8 fucking points in one day is ridiculous.

On the plus side, once again, are the banks. I cannot believe the resurgence in MBIA Inc. [[MBI]] and Ambac Financial Group, Inc. [[ABK]] . Also, shares of Wachovia Corporation [[WB]] are rounding off the intra-day lows and gaining strength.

Currently, my largest position is [[FXP]] . I am comfortable with it holding here, due to its short exposure in SNP , CNOOC Limited (ADR) [[CEO]] and PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] .

Bottom line: This market is very tricky. Be careful not to bet big in any direction. The volatility reminds of a Pepsi can opener. You know that little metal thingy that pierces the can, allowing you to guzzle the bullshit liquids inside of it? Eventually, you keep moving the metal thingy back and forth it falls off.

Fuck it UPDATE: I am buying 500 share blocks of AGU here. I will be doing so, in big balled fashion, until the bell rings.

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Commodity Bust is BAD For the Market

Watching FCX , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] and a myriad of other commodity related names trading lower screams panic to me. Apparently, lots of funds and investors are getting punched in the scrotum, as the last place to hide (commodities) gets obliterated.

Believe me, no one hates ag more than me. I’ve had my battles being short POT/long [[SMN]] for ages, waiting for the collapse to occur. However, initially, a fierce breakdown in these names is tragically bad for the market. Understand, people have been hiding in these names. Take that away, and you have a new round of wealth destruction.

A true bear market, if I may be so bold.

Bottom line: If you are long commodities, you might as well get hedged by going long SMN or [[DUG]] . And, at the same time, be prepared to scalp a quick trade, vulture style, off the bloodletting in stocks like FCX.

Overall, this dive may prove to cast a very negative shadow over Wall Street.

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Asshat Trading

The market is ripping higher thanks to the collapse of crude. The unfunny part about this commodity bust is the amount of hedge funds long the space. It’s revenge of the banking nerds and they have their water pistols pointed at the guys who have been poleaxing them for more than a year.

Keep in mind, the people who are gaining ground here are badly damaged. The funds that are long banks are far gone. Redemptions will be made and many of them will go out o’ business. However, with the commodities getting busted out, the best performers are now suffering, especially those who had short banks/long commodities pair trades on.

What does this mean?

Well, it means death for the financial industry, especially the trading desks who have been heavily long commodities, like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and Morgan Stanley [[MS]] .

Literally, there is no place to hide, unless you are a ‘space alien magician’ and possess the ability to dodge nuclear bomb hand grenades and venomous snake bites while asleep.

As you know, dollar strength is the foundation of this fuckery. Keep in mind, much of our export growth is directly attributed to the weak dollar position. If you take that away, we lose our edge.

Recognizing how the energy trade is impossible, I sold out of some of my oil longs, Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] , Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) [[SU]] , in order to raise cash and stop the bleeding. I will buy more Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , under $80. Thus far, that was a stupid trade.

In addition, I will hold off on any further [[SKF]] buys. I prefer [[FXP]] instead, considering it gets you short PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] and SNP .

Truly, this is a market made for an asshat.


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Fly Buys: AGU, SRS

I bought 5,000 Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] @ $84.79. And, I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $94.19.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, you will be attacked by a swarm of locusts. And, you may lose money.

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Bad News for You Bank Lovers

Thus far, the market is 300+ points lower (and counting), since Cramer’s recent bottom call. Marvelous! I just wanted to put that on the table, just in case you were unaware—God forbid.

Gloriously, the bank stocks are shitting the sock drawer, partly thanks to rotten numbers out of [[HBC]] . Mainly, bank stocks are trading lower because they went up so much, over the past two weeks.

Much to my chagrin, ag stocks are being mauled. As you know, erroneously, I am long Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] . Let’s just say, my individual equity ideas are being a bit stubborn this morning. Full disclosure, I sold some Clean Energy Fuels Corp. [[CLNE]] on the opening tick, following Cramer’s pump. Did I really have a choice?

Thankfully, I am loaded to the gills in [[FXP]] , [[SKF]] and [[SRS]] .

On the matter of important hurricanes sweeping away entire sections of the U.S.:

It appears we will have to wait. Eduardo is a pussy. As a result, oil and natty stocks are trading off with fury. Go figure.

The whole commodity complex is being busted out, from gold to corn. VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] should be a buy soon.

With commodities coming down, the U.S. economy should benefit. However, keep in mind, prices are still very high. In order to get me bullish, crude needs to drop below $80 and natty below $5.

FYI: natty is a scam and never deserved to trade north of $10. They were just fleecing you.

Finally, with the FOMC ahead of us, I expect stocks to trade lower. There is nothing Bernanke can do but try to talk the dollar up. He will not raise or lower rates. At the present, he is a sitting jackass, with both thumbs up his ass. Into any strength, I want to take advantage of the smoggy skies of Beijing and get long more FXP.

NOTE: I am still chuckling, not laughing, over Cramer’s bullish bank article, written this morning— citing (of all people) Rich Pzena’s (founder of Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] ) bullish stance on the banks. Perhaps an ideal time to short TheStreet.com, Inc. [[TSCM]] and PZN, providing stock is available? Remember, Pzena is the same guy who is knee capping his own firm, via large bets on banks.

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