Fly Buy: $ANET

I scaled back on some of my CYBR position and started a new one in ANET–devil endorsed.

Yesterday, TRN lost a lawsuit at the hands of a scoundrel whistle blower, some guy with an ax to grind trying to recover damages for the purpose of self-aggrandizement. The judgement went against TRN, after 3:30, and the shares got slammed in very illiquid, panic-confused, trading. In the pre-market, the stock is down a little more.

Why?

Apparently, jackasses about the internet enjoy to spread rumors. Mind you, the DOJ didn’t join in this lawsuit and it will most certainly go to appeal. The so called whistle blower will see $500+ million, just as fast as AAPL will pay VHC a gagillion dollars for stealing all of VHC’s precious patents.

Here are some facts to understand, before throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

TRN has a billion dollars in cash.

TRN makes a billion dollars in pre-tax income, per annum.

TRN is a cash flow generating machine.

TRN will NEVER, EVER, pay $500+ million for guardrails that were already approved by the FHWA.

TRN lost $700 million in market cap yesterday, hardly justifiable considering this is going to appeal and judgment will not affect balance sheet in the interim.

TRN has an insurance liability converge of $500 million, potentially insulating them from any damages.

TRN has a long, rich, history of smashing analyst estimate to pieces.

With earnings scheduled to be reported on 10/29 and the stock severely discounted, if short, ask yourself: Am I feeling lucky, punk?

I am a buyer at these levels.

This man, this reprobate of a human being, had the audacity to speak on the Fast Money today and compare Apple to Blackberry. Yes, gents, he said Apple could very well be going down the path of BBRY, despite not showing any signs of that whatsoever. I suppose Ralph Lauren could become the next Coldwater Creek or Nike could become the next Fila. Anything is possible, right?

ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT THE APPLE COMPUTER CORPORATION IS THE LARGEST COMPANY TO EVER GRACE EARTH AND HAS UPWARDS OF $150 BILLION IN CASH RESERVES.

Aside from all that, Collin kindly kept his $98 price target intact, which makes this award all the more necessary.

Listen and cringe to this man’s, this beer swilling bedlamite, double speak all the way to Asshatville.

Full disclosure here: that fucking judgement and subsequent drop in TRN’s share price, ironically, had me feeling like a UVXY shareholder late this afternoon. Everything was going peachy, up until the point when the guillotine descended upon my anatomy.

I don’t know what else to say, other than “I hate lawyers.”

I am sure there will be an appeal and this sell off had the stench of panic. Let clearer minds chime in on this one first, then make a judgement. Frankly speaking, seeing my intra-day gain of 2% morph before my eyes into a small loss was more than tragic, it was an abomination.

‘Tis the life of a railman.

This didn’t turn out as you planned, did it mate? The dogs of hell have been released upon you. Markets are trending higher, despite earlier weakness in crude. In a nutshell, you’ve been had and now your face is a chew toy.

I believe this rally will continue till Wednesday, then reverse to retest the lows. Of course I’m just guessing, merely using my reservoir of vast experience to navigate these troubled waters, might I add, with sublime and harmonious precision. Then again, I am sure all of you predicted this would happen back in April, like me, calling for a major rally in TLT. Yes?

I didn’t think so.

As I write this my largest position is careening lower, based off some trial decision. God damn it, I hate the courts.

Nevertheless, the market still has lift in it and those TNA positions should profit over the next few days.

Off to deal with a crisis.

Post IBM, the market was supposed to crash. But it didn’t–boo-hoo.

Oil is lower, which makes me uneasy. For the moment, my FMSA purchase looks like an act of genius, as I am up 21% on the position since I purchased it on Thursday. It reminds me of when I was buying WNR, circa 2011. Do you remember that? I was on vacation in Turks and Caicos and the market cratered. My WNR went from $17 to $11 in a flash. I bought it up down there and before I knew it, I was selling it north of $20. That stock, eventually, went north of $40, where it resides today.

In addition to FMSA, I am up nicely on MBLY, AAPL, GILD, ICPT and SGEN–just to name a few.

My top 5 positions are TRN, FMSA, MBLY, CYBR and CLR. Only TRN is greater than 10% of my assets, so everything is pretty drawn out, diversified over many sectors, and market caps.

I’d like the market to not give back the 275 pieces it gained on Friday. That would be a pleasant start to the week. On Friday, I was up 1.9% for the session and right now I am up 0.9%, down about 1% from my intra-day highs. I’d like to keep these gains too.

There is winship brewing in this market. You just can’t see it yet.

Great floods will be avoided this winter, as the rivers and the lakes freeze into solid mass. The hurricane season will be non-existant by November, as the country prepares to feast on large birds and seasonal squash. The Turkey Gods will make an appearance on the NYSE and swallow one trader whole, as is the custom during that time of year. Shortly thereafter, a buying frenzy of discretionary goods will sweep the nation, with little children running about–asking men with giant white beards to buy them things.

Rumors of flying reindeers, with incandescent noses, will run rampant and the Coca-Cola corporation will propaganda the idea of strange fat men breaking and entering the homes of millions of Americans to be, not only an acceptable practice, but preferred.

And the stock market will trade up on most days, down on some. There will be periods of panic and greed, hedged by periods of consolidation. Men will be broken over the knees of Mother Market, like stale pretzel sticks, for not exhibiting patience. Persons of little to no experience will make great strides early on, then lose everything, AND MORE, during downturns.

This cycle will repeat itself for all of eternity.

The recent downturn in the market, coupled with the surge of VIX instrument users, has motivated me to conduct research into what is causing people to behave in such an irrational manner. Despite the irrefutible evidence, empirical in nature, stating that 99.9% of VIX trades will result in horrendous capital losses, I took it upon myself to understand why the Twitter, the Stocktwits, and The iBankCoin comments section was littered with ‘kamikaze’ styled traders who believed ‘this time would be different.’

Without further delay, I am proud to announce my findings.

At first I thought there was a chemical imbalance in the brain that led to irrational behavior. I examined levels of serotonin in my subjects (do not concern yourself, I am a Doctor); but this study proved to be inconclusive. I then experimented with electric pulses and the “amygdala” part of the brain, the part responsible for fear. Regrettably, our research ran into significant road-blocks here too.

We then experimented with neurotransmitters and became emboldened by our findings.

In 97% of our subjects, persons exhibiting ‘acute mental disorders’ emanating from a malady in the pre-frontal cortex, we found they executed VIX instrument product trades when left to their own volition–despite empirical evidence stating this was detrimental to their financial well-being.

What does this mean?

This means, through proper surgical means and partial removal of this part of the brain, the subject may, at some point in time, lead a normal life. Naturally, of course, our research is in its nascency and there are aspects of this illness that we are becoming acquainted with each and every day. But, I am pleased to inform you that electro-shock therapy is no longer needed as treatment and we are now on the cusp of revolutionary, break-through, treatments–that will benefit the good of mankind for centuries to come.

Dr. Fly, 2014.

After the gym, instead of drinking a glass filled with chalky protein powder, I will drink an entire, mind you, bottle of red wine (white is for women). As of late, I’ve been getting into the Nebbiolo grape, instead of my preferred Bordeaux. To pair the red, I will grill up a 2 1/2 inch thick ribeye, heavily salted, lightly peppered, served medium rare.

Do you know why I am going to do this, aside from the fact that I can? It’s because the mother-fucking market tried to rape me this week–but I escaped intact. At the open of yesterday’s trade, I was at the lows, down another 2.5%. But I closed up almost 3%. This morning, I gapped up 4%.

These are significant returns, lads. I didn’t endure the sort of fucked up draw-downs that many of your neighbors had, because I was old manned up in utilities and REITs.

So, having said that, still up 1.9% for the session, I deserve to celebrate the great feat of avoiding my own rape.

I know it’s a hard time to invite you, but I will do so nevertheless. Come out to Vegas this November 8th and join the crew, hosted by Ragin Cajun, Jeff Macke, and Howard Lindzon, with keynote speeches by our very own Option Addict. Now more than ever, it’s important that we figure out these puzzles, whilst throwing people off balconies, for the sake humanity and all that is good with capitalism. We endeavor to assist you in this quest.

In other news, the good folks at iBankCoin have just about finished their first Income Report, soon to be release to the massing hordes. This report will be given gratis to all of those attending the November 8th investors conference. The contents of the report have been thoroughly curated by Caine Thaler, trained mathematician, a gent who works until midnight, each and every night, on the 9th floor.

Here is a sneak peek.

This report will be a premium service of iBankCoin, issued quarterly for the explicit purposes of analyzing companies for their dividends.

I was out all day, as promised. I left up 4% for the day. Now I am barely up. Sharp reversals everywhere, yet the market is still up more than 200. During that time, Obama appointed an ‘Ebola Czar”, who has zero medical experience for a disease that has afflicted a handful of people in the United States.

This is a process. I don’t expect it will be easy.

Take a look at CLR. It was up 3 points in the morning; but now it’s down. The fundamentals suggest it’s worth more than $75. So should I be concerned with just one day’s trading action? If I was a neanderthal and had just two pennies to rub together, than I’d be beguiled with today’s misfitted action. But gents, need I remind you to never bet against Le Fly, for he wins even during defeat?

This process will play out. We might even retest the lows. But, rest assured, this market will be supported by our friends at the central banks and we will hit new all-time highs before the year is out.