Scoundrels, Mongrels and Knaves

The catamites over at Citron ‘Research’ published a hit piece on GPRO today, which is particularly amusing since they haven’t the slightest edge on something as mainstream as this. My recommendation for them is to stick to their Chinese accounting plays and leave the real market, filled with real companies, to men who are interested in the upward trajectory of mankind.

Now before their report, GPRO was soaring high, up more than $2.50. Post report, it now wallows down by just 60 cents, up from down $3.

YOU CANNOT STOP THE HONEY BADGER aka GPRO. It is coming to eat your liver whole and there is nothing that you or your stupid fruity friends can do about it.

I view today’s sell off as constructive and absolute for the oil and gas space. My SLCA position is receiving multiple lumps to the skull. There are some stocks, like FMSA, doing decidedly worse.

According to Dennis Gartman, we are now entering a new era of energy renaissance, led by cold fusion. Albeit, it may take 200 years for us to convert to such a standard; the point remains: oil is old hat.

Top picks: TRN, GPRO, ANET, MU and BALT.

All of these three things are feeding off one another, oddly enough.

Men of industry and substance, you are entering a golden era of American dominance, buoyed by its magnificent currency and NASDAQS. The oil barrels that once thwarted your very existence, forced you into trillion dollar wars, and made you open Mcdonald eateries in stupid places like Destin, ND are now over. The King Dollars that you hold in your wallet, the same King Dollars that a certain Dr. Benjamin Bernanke toiled tirelessly to protect and promote, are now the envy of the world. Supremacy has its advantages.

The Europeans have failed.

The Asians haven’t figured out finance yet.

And the South Americans/Africans are still throwing spears at one another.

America stands, sporting superior growth and margins. For every penny gasoline drops, the American fat cat grows $1.1 billion fatter. Now all of this is a lot for you to take in, on such an arduous morning, ahead of a GOP sweep, with futures pointing lower. You have predilections to fear the unknown and you miss the beatings from your middle eastern masters, about the face and chest from their oil barrel prices. But we’ve won the war. Our agents in the middled east, ISIS, are readily chopping off the heads of anyone who looks at them sideways. As a result, the entire region is paralyzed with fear, all the while the price of their oil barrels plummet to new lows.

I sold my largest oil position yesterday, CLR, and so should you. The dynamics of the industry are undergoing change and King Dollar is here to stay.

Ask yourselves this question: this great, grande tax cut, could it come a better, more opportune, time, ahead of our pagan holidays? I think not. I also think that our sovereign buying power, coupled with the surge of our equity markets, coupled with the collapse of commodities, is a win-win for anyone in the business of speculation and vacationing in well-to-do places on the european continent.

I know this is entirely off topic and something that most of you are uninterested in, mainly because you’re all fat porkers, busy and readily stuffing your faces with cheese sandwiches. But I just got done with a moderately successful cut cycle and I must admit, it sucked giant nuts.

I cut for the entire summer and really cheated heavily along the way. It was more of a maintenance diet, where I limited myself to around 2,000 calories per day with an ample amount of protein to keep the muscle from washing away. The whole point of a cut cycle is to remove the fat to display your muscles. It’s purely aesthetic.

Fine, it’s great that I can spin a knife on my stomach; but I’m weaker for it.

I don’t work out to look better or even feel better. I work out so that I am harder to kill. Whenever that fated day comes, the arrival of some jackass in a mustache trying to shank me with his homosexual switch blade with the intent to sever my head, I want to be able to tear his head off with my own hands–clean. Fuck the knife.

The problem is, as some of you know, when you’re cutting, you’re really just a big pussy–trying to get lean for the sake of conformity.

Listen to me now: I am going to eat 4,000 calories per day and gain 20 pounds in the next 3 months, so that I too might be able to throw grown men over my head into a crevasse, should the occasion arise. As I write this very blog, I am eating a grotesquely large peanut butter and jelly sandwich with a side order of protein bar and a 12 ounce mug of milk.

Having abs is great. But what’s even greater is to have brute strength that would allow you to punch the fucking bone marrow out of approaching enemies.

My year to date losses once stood at a staggering -37%, post Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse blow up in May. As of right now, I am off by 12.5%, my high point since the blow up–readily positioned to take back all of my money and more.

I am going to make this very brief.

Rubber and plastics use a shit load of oil. Cheaper oil means higher margins. Look at GT, ROG and CTB.

Airlines make out like bandits. I like DAL and ALK.

Shippers spend an immense amount of money on fuel. Look at BALT, NM, DRYS and SBLK.

DPZ and PZZA spend lots of money on gasoline, via their delivery service.

PTRY and CASY should see a spike in their gas station businesses and COST should benefit from the newly founded riches of the US consumer–who saves $1.1 billion for every penny decline in gasoline.

There are plenty of ways to play this tax cut called cheaper oil. Start looking for them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqeg-IUXz8k

The reason why I sold out of CLR, in spite of loving the company, has everything to do with my recent windfall in GPRO and nothing about a prediction in crude. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that I know absolutely nothing about the political games behind the price of crude. Therefore, I am edgeless in a sea of knives. I thought it made sense to take a shot with CLR, being that I needed a big winner. But then out of nowhere, GPRO and ANET appeared, granting me the respite I desired.

Considering that TRN is my largest holding, a company dependent on the good health of the oil and gas business, as well as a top 10 position in SLCA, I felt it was the responsible thing to do, swapping out ole CLR for BALT, ANET, YELP and cash considerations.

The easier trade is to avoid the battlegrounds. Right now tech is without an enemy–unless of course you consider men running about the internet with burlap underwear to be the opposition.

In summary, I took a cold 6% loss and now I’m moving on to better climes. Keep up.

My testicles made me buy more ANET and YELP. Throughout the day, I’ve also added to TRN and started a new position in BALT, while liquidating CLR. I’ve been a very busy bee.

Captain Fly is back on his pirate ship, The SS BALT, out for extreme bounty.

I initiated a half sized position ahead of a potential dilutive financing, which may or may not be coming soon. Either way, the BDI, spearheaded by Capesize day rates, have been soaring as of late. The shippers are my favorite plays heading into November and December.

To finance this purchase, I liquidated my third largest position, CLR, for a 6% loss.

Every so often I feel comfortable playing earnings. For me, GPRO was a no-brainer, since I wanted to be long heading into the holiday season–one way or another. Back in the old days of refining resurgence, I had to own the WNR. Last year, in light of soaring BDI rates, BALT was my play. And now, I am entirely convinced in the prospects for TRN.

But that isn’t my earnings play. It is a name that is little known, since it’s a freshly minted IPO.

Name of the company is Arista Networks: ticker ANET.

Stifel came out with this note this morning:

Arista Networks upgraded to Buy at Stifel; tgt $95  (81.25)

Stifel upgrades ANET to Buy from Hold and sets target price at $95 as checks show that co continues to notch up big wins with large financial services companies. Firm’s checks also show that the company has started to make inroads into the channel, which is helping Arista diversify beyond the financial services vertical into the enterprise market. Other highlights:

• Partnership with IBM and potential opportunity with VCE
• One of the biggest variables and focus areas for investors going forward will be gross margins

At 10x sales, this stock isn’t cheap. At the same time, compared to other high valuation plays, it’s rather low key. Sporting a growth rate of 65%, expected to exceed analyst expectations for the foreseeable future, one can make the argument that ANET should and could trade up to 14x, just like PANW.

I hate doing that, by the way. Rationalizing high valuation stocks by comparing it to even higher valuation stocks is a great way to blow yourself up. However, during bull markets, that’s how the game works. So, you play the stupid game until it ends, very simply.

Last quarter ANET smashed estimates by .22, posting eps of .35, with revenues of $137.9m, well ahead of consensus estimates of $125.6m. Furthermore, they offered upside guidance of $142-150m, compared to consensus of $134.1m. They are scheduled to report earnings on November 6th, after the market close.

I will be holding my position though earnings, hoping for the best.

Capital IQ EPS consensus: 0.28
Capital IQ Rev consensus: 148.20 mln

We are done with the ambiguously gay month’s of the year. Tis’ is the time for Santa Claus sleds and Turkey Gods. They will descend upon you like 10,000 flaming arrows. Your little shield doesn’t stand a chance against the tidal wave of bullishness heading your way.

The recent V-shaped recovery in stocks is lining up perfectly with the 1st Annual iBankCoin Investors Conference. Under the cloak of darkness and anonymity, “The Fly” intends to treat his VIP members to the very best foods and drink available. After all, it’s a bull market. Isn’t it?

Very soon earnings season will be behind us and the fantasy can begin to fester again. The market will always prefer the hint of grandeur over grandeur itself–if you know what I mean.

Being down 14% for the year, I intend to give the ole college effort these last few months of the year, sticking swords into the abdomens of my enemies along the way. Without a doubt, it’s been an arduous year for Señor Tropicana. But the year is still young, isn’t it?

The crispness of the fall air invigorates me. The foliage and the specter of colder climes motivates me, as I am a northerner from birth and right, to succeed and excel at my trade. I intend to do that, for the benefit of all, heading down the stretch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7qa26iEtkI

Let the festivities begin. Halloween is one of my favorite holidays, I’ll have you know.

This is the last weekend to sign up for the iBC Investors Conference. We have 15 seats remaining.

I sold nothing and hold it all into next week.

Ciao