If It’s Not Systemic, It’s Not Worth Worrying Over

I still believe the market is going to cascade lower in late August, through pagan X-mas. I’ve told you we are following the path of 2000 and I am sticking to it. But part of that journey included a July fake out, a decline that scared people into believing we’d head back to the May lows. Many stocks are indeed back to the May lows and even more are hitting new lows. But that doesn’t mean the game is over, just yet.

Let me tell you something, this market has been marked by satan ever since it crashed in 2008. Do you people remember how much fun that was? Do you? I mean, really? If you were happy to see the market at 666, then something is chemically wrong with you. I’d castrate 90% of the male population, if given the chance. The simple fact of the matter is, most of the current gene pool shouldn’t continue. There, I said. I do not support genocide, per se. I am only advocating the sterilization of more than 100 million eligible men.

Back to the markets.

I don’t care what that idiot Cramer said: markets don’t go lower because airplanes get shot down. Believe me, I am saddened by it and I will probably never ever fly in an airplane that is even remotely close to Russia in my lifetime. But are we all fucking children here? Have you all lost your minds and balls?

We trade up from here, people. If a military jet was shot down, maybe we trade down for about a week, maybe two. But we have a destiny to fulfill and there is nothing that can derail us from tethering the timeline of 2000 to the exact decimal.

I don’t care what people are telling you, what the talking heads on the television are saying, praising new highs and what have you: this, ladies and gentlemen, is a bad tape. This isn’t an environment to make money, when only 25% of stocks are up. Are you a fucking idiot?

When markets behave like this, watch out. Go to the sidelines and wait for an inflection point.

How will you know when it is time to buy?

If you weren’t so cheap, and jaded, you’d know that The PPT is running at an 89% accuracy clip over the past 12 months. While it’s true, nothing is forever and there isn’t a such thing as a holy grail, this thing works. When it stops working, I will be the first to fix it. Until then, I will depend on it to time my buys.

I am 13% cash, heavily invested in a wide array of stocks, and I am not happy. In my favor, I am milking the farmer and his bullshit corn, via PEIX, and my silver stock (AG) is rallying hard–because Russia is now shooting down commercial jetliners.

I think it’s clear, as well as evident, that the market has morphed into a death trap, whereby any unsuspecting participant is liable to get his head chopped off at any given moment. My first instinct, as I look at this tape, is to buy more AG. But I am fully aware that the market might just bounce tomorrow and gold and silver could very well kick me in the nuts, like it did last week.

I guess what I am telling you is go eat a sandwich. This market is only going to disappoint you and rob you of your time.

If you would excuse me, I have a meeting to take.

Being a trader or manager of other people’s assets is a hard job. It’s very stressful because there is a lot to lose. You have to find an escape, an oasis away from the job, otherwise you’re gonna burn out. More than 90% of the people I started with in this business are out. They’re not out because they weren’t good enough or because they didn’t want it. They are out because they were unable to see the bigger picture.

What am I talking about?

You know I can see your smug faces just looking at this post, thinking that you know it all. But guess what? You don’t know shit, so why don’t you shut the fuck up and listen to what I am about to tell you.

It’s not enough to go out and drink like an idiot or have sex with every girl/guy that you meet. Those are bad habits and they will literally kill you. When you’re not building your business or stressing out over stocks misbehaving, go read a book. Do not simply read the pages–become entranced by it.

I’ve always found the single best form of communication between the human species to be through cinema. Go see a movie. As a matter of fact, watch a lot of movies, all different genres. It’s not corny to become inspired by a fictional character on the screen. Sometimes a little fiction can go a long way, to break up the monotony of life–offer an escape from the hard realities of competition.

We are all competing against one another, on multiple levels. You are trying to outsmart me (good luck with that) by making the bigger gains, buying the bigger house, the better car, etc. While it’s true, those are all material items and success isn’t simply gauged by possessions. I’d literally rather be dirt poor and happy than rich and miserable. But you know what? I’m just not built like that. I could never, ever, ever be happy without money.

Some of you can fuck off and go live your pathetic little lives without money, eating out of garbage cans. But I can’t do that. I’d rather throw myself into a lit fireplace than go back to poverty–thank you very much.

If your job is such that you are unable to break out and make it big, then save, invest wisely, and do it on your own time.

We are here to help.

Listen to me, okay? I sold out of my largest position today for break-even. I was up 5% on it a few days ago, but was forced to sell. Do you know why?

Because of this lady.

Last go around, TSL made me money. It didn’t make me a lot of money. But I made money. So today I sold, against my better judgement, because of this lady.

With some of the proceeds, I bought PEIX. Do you know why I bought PEIX?

Because fuck the farmer. That’s why. Do you know why I am cursing now, despite promising to never curse here again? Because I am an adult and can do whatever I like. That’s why.

Look, the Fed wants air to come out of the small cap biotech and tech space. Some of these stocks have been hammered in recent weeks, absolutely destroyed–20-35% declines. These are weak stocks, in an awkward tape, that are susceptible to further selling. Do yourselves a favor and lighten up. I am not telling you to get bearish and to sell everything. I am telling you to lighten up–because if this lady gets her way, you’re gonna be shining my shoes by Christmas.

Futures are lower. You’re all gonna lose money and die tomorrow. Have a nice night.

“Go fetch me a bushel of corn. I will not be paying very much for it either.”

The simple fact of the matter is, the US farmer are stuck in a corn maze, all to do with the sun and a cooler than expected summer. These summer winds will bring forth RECORD corn crops. As such, the price of corn shall plummet to the dirt, offering corn farmers nothing but misery.

To profit from this, “The Fly” has decided to chase the shares of PEIX here. Gasoline demand is robust and we have a criminally insane administration who just might up the mandated 10% ethanol blend to something even more egregious. With corn low and gasoline high, ethanol producers are in a sweet spot (extra corn).

Other ethanol plays include REX, GPRE, BIOF and AMTX.

The sun is too hot for me to bear. I broke even on TSL and moved on.

In case you’re wondering where I’ve been: it’s none of your business. “The Fly” is busy–all the time– and slices out tiny morsels of his day to speak to you. Please don’t tell me you think these blogs consume a lot of my time. I can write like you can throw away opportunity. Plus anyway, don’t let the markets fool you, there is a weak underbelly, a dark side, to this tape. Most of you will finish in the red and stay there because of an old seahag who felt it was incumbant upon herself to ruin it for the rest of us.

I am not saying she is wrong, per se. All I am saying is that this business is hard enough as it is than have to worry about the fucking Federal Reserve Chairman taking shots at my holdings. That’s all. She might as well pen a hit piece on Seeking Alpha and make it official.

I am having a mixed day, with most of my speculative holdings in the red. My conservative holdings are doing fine which suggests a rotation of sorts is underway.

UPDATE: It appears Janet has started her own blog on Seeking Alpha.

Ok, I held back this afternoon, with regard to my true feelings towards Janet Yellen.

But now it is time to let this geriatric woman, this misanthropic hog, know exactly how I feel.

It’s bad enough that this bastard of a stock market is manipulated from the top down. All of the traditional correlations, based upon LOGIC, have been distorted by the perverts at the Fed. I’ve grown to accept them and even embrace them, interpreting their words and actions as a ‘green signal’ to speculate, open up personal harems, and behave in gluttonous ways–at all times. Now this lady, this Brooklyn troll, tells me that ‘social media and small capped biotech stocks’ are no good?!

WHAT THE FUCK!

Are you serious? Since when is it the Fed’s business to tell me what sectors of the market to avoid? Say for example, I listened to Ms. Yellen and sold short YELP, based upon her analysis. Let’s say, for example, I sold short a small capped biotech stock named Seattle Genetics, SGEN, thinking the Fed knows all.

What if YAHOO took some of their ‘fuck you’ Alibaba money and made a hostile bid for YELP at $100 and on the very same day Pfizer acquired SGEN for $98 per share, backed by the Baker Brothers? Would I be entitled to file a lawsuit against the Fed, or are they protected by the ‘newsletter act’? Any attorneys out there?

If the good Dr. Benjamin Bernanke were still at the helm, none of this would be happening. He’s not a stupid man, unlike Janet. She is a very stupid man, indeud.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW3Y4OuTPHQ

Rocky Dennis, Superstar Inflation Analyst

That’s my raw commodity index, year to date. That doesn’t look inflationary anymore, does it? Take that, coupled with the fact that bonds are gapping higher daily, the dry bulk index is at new lows, sub 800, and one could make the argument that we are headed, rather decidedly, into the deflationary vortex of magnified death. You don’t need to take my word for it. Have a look at some three month returns for some of your favorite commodities.

Wheat -23%

Corn -23%

Coffee -21%

Cotton -20%

Uranium -11%

Natural Gas -11%

Death to the farmer. Long live the grocer!

Going against her better judgement, I disobeyed Grandma Yellen and averaged down in shares of RUBI. Its been an awful performer and I really shouldn’t be buying more of this offal. However, it’s down 9 consecutive days and this whole sell off due to Janet Yellen suggesting valuations are stretched in social media and biotech has me sick to my stomach.

The manipulator in Chief doesn’t like the market to be manipulated. How ironic.