When Will the War Matter?

Here is a few facts for you on this wonderful Sunday evening, in regards to the war in the Ukraine.

Typical casualty ratios in any war is usually 1:1.4, whereby the defender is offered an advantage due to fixed defensive lines and to overcome this the attacker must come with superior forces since both sides are going to suffer similar casualties with the advantage lying with the defenders. According to some reports I have been reading, Russia afflicting casualties on the UKR army at a 10 to 30:1 ratio — meaning for every thousand Russian death/injuries — Ukraine is being annihilated with 10-30,000.

The Russian method is slow and methodical and front line Ukrainian soldiers are saying they never even get to see Russian soldiers in the field, up until the point the area is mopped up. How is Russia doing this?

Unprecedented amounts of artillery attacks.

They are expending 60-90,000 artillery shells per day. To put that into perspective, during the entire Gulf War the United States expended 65,000 shells. Russia is doing that in a single day, in what seems to be an endless barrage of attacks supported by first class logistics and an industrial complex.

Since Russia switched tactics, from rapid big arrow attacks to the slow and methodical approach we see now — they have yet to lose a single battle — no matter how many wonder weapons NATO sends the Ukrainian army.

Over the weekend the daughter of an influential Russian philosopher, Alexander Dugin, was murdered in a car bomb in Moscow, in what appears to be an attempt on Dugin — since he’s close to Putin. These sort of provacations are desperate attempts to get the Russians off their methodical strategy — to perhaps respond emotionally and fall into a trap. I seriously doubt anything will change on the ground, other than more of the same.

Back west we are mostly bored of the news and have traded the markets as if this potential powder keg didn’t exist. Biden is financing the entire Ukrainian government and military, to the tune of $1-2 billion per week. It’s clear to anyone watching the actions of the west — they do not want peace with Russia and Russia doesn’t want peace with them.

Back on the issue of when will it matter.

It will begin to matter again when the weather turns and European industry is faced with the task of gathering enough supplies to make it through the winter. After that, the west will need to figure out what will a post UKR-RUS war look like for them — and how to maintain their grip on the resource rich Ukraine without getting into a shooting war with Russia.

Greetings

I just logged off Twitter after absorbing some great news for NATO. Apparently the Ukrainians are winning the war again and will, at some point, “liberate” both Crimea and Russian controlled Belgorod. This is great news for the west and I am hoping their HIMARS production facilities are working fastidiously, but in a manner on par with equity and equal opportunity for persons of color and pansexuals worldwide.

On the important issue of the stock market, we are nearing the end of summer and will be getting back to business soon. The month of September of course looms and with it a plethora of opportunity to be killed in action.

Below are returns for IWM during the month of August dating back to 2000, courtesy of Stocklabs. As you can see, it has been littered with tragedy and if I am being honest with all of you here and now — I can almost taste the tears of the bulls as they probably had such high hopes after a summer of debauchery and looking forward towards Pumpkin’d Pie and carving out the olde Jack O’ Lanterns.

Does this mean we will face a similar fate in 2022?

Yes, that is exactly what it means. This is not a blog of guessing, but a blog of telling. I am telling you now — the market will collapse during the ill fated month of September and if you’re not careful about your portfolio — you too will be liberated from your money and sent packing back to the cold tundra of poverty.

We need a 1970s recession pic.twitter.com/1e9UZsfj9r

— John W. Rich Kid (Wendy’s Fry Cook) (@JohnWRichKid) August 20, 2022

The summer of SAAS you all enjoyed is fast coming to an end. The Champagne is getting stale and the cocaine is losing its potency. The ribald gains you’ve enjoyed will soon be paired with a dagger to the eye socket.

The war in the Ukraine is getting worse…for NATO.

The bitter coldness of winter is just around the bend, threatening the existence of the poors in Germany.

The artificial run down of oil, thanks to the release of the SPR, will not last and America, fat lazy and stupid, will be left without reserves and oil will be $150 bbl.

I positioned bearish into the close, long some oils and defensive stocks — but shed 23bps thanks to an errant WEBR trade that spilled over into losses.

You have enjoyed yourselves the past month or so, almost feeling as if the bear market had ended. You were happy, slovenly, and comforted by gains. All of that, Sir, is about to end and with it comes loss, regret, and tragedy.

Have a nice weekend.

Before 2020 I rarely if ever day traded. Then I tried it and took an account from $100k to $750k inside 2 years, all public for the FUCKERS inside Stocklabs to see. I’ve traded options on and off my whole life but never had the tools made available to me to truly crush it. The derivatives markets are not like stocks and there are complexities that are often ignored by other FUCKERS trading independently.

So I decided to created my own tools with the help and leadership of someone who is better versed in it than I am. We are in the 6th to 7th inning of completing this offering and it’s live now in the screeners for me and it’s great.

Above are active options and % of call vs put buying

FULL DISCLOSURE: I haven’t quite figured out how these correlations work and if there is rhyme and reason to some of the chaos in the options market. I am sure there is and will be studying this daily from now until I master it. Like day trading, I am fairly certain I will eventually crush in this arena too — as trading and investing is more or less, aside from writing, the only god damned thing I am good at doing.

I knew the market *might* collapse while I was away from the office and here we are, DOWN 200 NASDAQ, yields spiking, euro cracked lower, volatility through the roof. To put this into perspective, there is plenty of time to react if you missed this leg lower, should markets barrel back down to the lows.

I’m 95% cash, 5% long REI. Although tempted to place some trades, I’d rather wait to see if this is a legit reversal first. It has all of the trimmings of a bear tape. However, for the last 2 months all of these dips have been bought. Perhaps the reality of the situation is finally settling in, the inexorable dilemma of growth vs inflation managed by incompetents equals crash?

Let’s see.

Hello absolute faggots friends.

I’d like to apologize to so many of you whom I’ve insulted over the years, forced you out of Stocklabs via unnecessary bullying and mean handling. I have looked inward and am a completely different person now. I have even forgiven the folks at Cartoonland for their foray into NFTs and won’t even charge them extra for coming back into the fold.

Since so many of you have left — The Pelican Room has become a liberal denizen for progressive ideas. We are all quite impressed with the Biden regime and feel strongly about the prospects of Pax Americana.

See? I never lie.

In other news, I am back at the trading turret after making 38bps today while on the road from a delightful meeting with the President of the United States in DC. I have other news for my internet colleagues and friends: Option Labs is coming soon. We will provide this service for free for a limited time and then it’ll go premium. It will also be a stand alone service for those not interested in our stock tools.

This is being developed by a fellow Pelican Losblion and it’s going to be straight fire and crack combined. Here is an early look at the screener — filtering out the most active options with call to put volume greater than 60%. We have all the greeks too and I am thinking about adding some minor greeks, especially LAMBDA and ZOMMA.

For the person’s who have no fucking clue about options, the good folks at Stocklabs will be here to help teach you.

Tomorrow my house will be filled with construction workers again — but that won’t stop me from trading.

See you in the AM, good friends.

I was tempted to trade at the open but remembered the misery of trading while traveling and opted to liquidate my account, +35bps for the session.

It is a genteel return, one that all should strive for. If, for example, you just made 35bps per day — by the end of the year you’d be up 77% and considered to be one of the greatest investors alive. Dare I say, you should reduce your lofty goals of 5% daily returns in favor of something much more austere?

The 20yr old punk kid behind the BBBY squeeze has a rich uncle who owns MNMD and now that stock is ripping higher. I only mention this due to its stupidity to make you aware of the current state of things in western finance.

I have no expectations for the session and will need to re-acclimate myself tomorrow with the state of affairs. Being out of pocket for a few days really throws one aback, leaving a feeling of out of the know. I can only imagine how retarded civilians feel whilst glancing at equity markets. They have no idea what happens here.

My business here has concluded and I’ll be making my way back down south in the morning. My biggest takeaway from visiting DC now is the lack of homeless cavorting the street. Dare I say Biden has cleaned up the city and killed off the homeless issue. The people are profoundly vacuous and annoying, glib and teeming with narcissism; but the city is once again delightful.

In terms of the market, I’m still waiting for a fat pitch. I know, the NASDAQ has shot higher by 12% the past month, up 20% from the lows, and 20 year old punks are scoring absurd coin in BBBY.

So what and fuck off. Quit reminding me of missed opportunities and trades that could’ve happened. I have enough regrets and really need to focus on what I have and the good things I’ve done.

I’m up 47% for the year and that’s something to be proud of. Granted, I was up 212% last year and I haven’t made any money in the past month and a half — but fuck off. You think I didn’t know that?

I’m not gonna force myself into trading like an imbecile just because you want gains. You’ll just have to wait until my brain connects with the market again and delivers a fat pitch.

Good news on the Stocklabs development front.

Our options product is steaming ahead and will be ready for beta trials soon. After that we will focus on the AI product, which is a life long dream of mine.

The chart above shows the most active options in the entire market for the session. We’re gonna collect a fuckload of data and parse it and after we are done parsing it, we will parse it again.

With the launch of options I will start to trade options again and dedicate a public portfolio to it. Bear in mind, I’m out of practice and will really need time to catch up and get into the swing of things. But once I do, and after I build the tools necessary to trade them, I can guarantee you’ll I crush.

I offer no evidence to support the title of this post, only a hunch that the recent foray into heavily shorted piece of shit stocks like PRTY is nothing more than a final salvo that will lead to a sequence of events that will entirely destroy the very fabric of western finance and annihilate the stock market.

Naturally all inverse ETFs stormed higher except the one I was long UVIX, which reminds me to stop dicking around with my hedges and to simply buy SQQQ or TZA.

I closed DOWN 1.77% because I’m a moron and on “vacation”. Very soon the apocalypse nears and with it dastardly lower stock prices. I swapped out of UVIX for TZA and hold close to 80% cash because I won’t be at the desk tomorrow and anything can happen.

For a few months now I’ve been trading defensive and afraid of losing my grandiose gains. The same thing happened to me last year and to be honest, I’m ok with it. The whole point of this experiment in finance is to compound absurd returns over many years in order to build absurd wealth. With a little luck and some mathematical precision from Stocklabs, I feel I can achieve this goal.

… while I am out of the office with my family walking and eating around DC. OF COURSE THIS WOULD HAPPEN, providing me with losses of 1.6% for the session. I’m not even gonna try to understand what is happening or try to fix it. I sold all but DECK, BTU and UVIX. With just 20% long, I doubt the market can fuck me even further — but you never know.

Yesterday I had a nice salient and was able to etch out 75bps of gains, in spite of early losses. And today, naturally, all of that was revoked and much more.

I hadn’t looked at my portfolio in hours and figured if I just didn’t look at it, something great would happen. However, seeing the market now, I can see that isn’t happening and because I was loaded up with piece of shit short squeezes, I felt it was appropriate to mitigate the damage.

I’ll be here for another day and back to trading with a furrowed brow on Friday.