REMINDOOR: We Are Still in a Bear Market

Having said that, we can still run higher from here, even after this big lift. With stocks up 4% for the session and the speculative juices going, we could see a continuation into next week, perhaps a short squeeze or two because fuck you.

Nevertheless, you should be using these rallies to REDUCE your long term exposure, since it’s very likely we are to resume lower at some point soon and then dive back into the crevasse at new lows.

My algo account, which is based solely off the Stocklabs oversold signals, is up 12% today, fully long TQQQ. Just yesterday this looked like a suicide account; now it’s the best thing going. My Quant was also in agony, now +5.3%. In my trading, I went to cash first thing this morning and left a lot of cash on the table in exchange for safety. I am +3% there.

My best guess is a RAMPING of the close. I would not be surprised to see us completely revoke these gains on Monday, as bear markets tend to truly disappoint investors to the point of misery. This is why it’s important you listen to me now: lighten up.

Shares of TWTR are off by 10% today after Elon sent this tweet out.

Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of usershttps://t.co/Y2t0QMuuyn

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 13, 2022

Frankly, it was only a matter of time, given the market conditions, for Elon to impose some hardball tactics with the Twitter board. If it weren’t for the Elon bid the stock would be in the 20s now for sure.

Some believe Elon will pay the $1b break up fee and walk away. I don’t believe that is the case and think the market is assessing correctly the new buyout price, around $40.

Just yesterday most of you were contemplating life without money and here we are today, with stocks screaming higher, you’re now looking at stocks and once again believing they can go so much higher. Fuck all of that, I sold out of my trading account for +300bps and called it a day, having achieved excellence in a week where I resided on a couch in a cold dark basement listening to old jazz tunes — quarantined because I felt sick.

I took some Ivermectin last night and all of a sudden I feel much better! Perhaps there is something in the horse medicine that makes us get better right away.

On the issue of markets: everything is reflating and even cryptos are running. It’s not that I’m bearish per se, but I’d prefer not to play the intra-day swings for the time being and will likely re-apply longs towards the end of the day.

I still have my algo and Quant accounts fully long, one up +600bps and the other +400bps, so it’s not like I’m “missing out.”

Congrats to all involved.

It was at the very bottom of today’s tape the lads inside Stocklabs Pelican Room started to discuss the delicacies of bugs and how one might serve, for one’s family, pancaked made from cricket flour did the market bottom.

I’ve been doing this a long time and never have I bore witness to such desperate men craving for the meal to come. It is my opinion, at least in the short term, the market has bottomed.

Sick on the couch all day, I traded on instincts and not based upon what I was seeing, a playbook in my head based off of years of stock market excellence. I closed +12bps, 27% cash, 10% hedged via FAZ.

Tiger Global is blowing up and your favorite hedge fund manager might have to work this summer, taking a break from his cocaine fueled beach house galas.

Whatever is going on, one thing is for certain, someone is BLOWING THE FUCK UP.

The pin action is becoming grotesque again. However, stocks like SHOP, SE, and UPST are still up nicely. After the bell the canary in the BNPL racket, AFRM, reports. Expect a 30% move in either direction.

I can only offer instinctive analysis since I’m half dead on a couch in a cold foreboding basement.

Markets collapsed at the open and have since recovered. This is a textbook capitulation trade and I see many hard hit stocks, like my SE, ripping.

I also see the Ruble at new highs vs the dollar +6%.

I also see Finland is concerned that by joining NATO Russia will turn off their gas. This leads me to believe the best trade here isn’t the beaten down techs but the beaten down commodities. Stocks like MOS have 20 points in them.

It’s also good to see ETH back above $2k. The whole thing looks good, but I’m not buying.

I’ll keep what I have and if I’m around by 3:30, I’ll allocate for tomorrow.

Presently I’m up 25bps for the session.

I’m feeling terrible this morning, but grateful for not being vaccinated.

Last night cryptos just completely liquidated. Most are now worth zero. This morning stocks are tricking people left and right into believing a bottom is in. The sell off is once again ORDERLY and I ended up selling my hedge for profit and several longs at a loss. As of now I am half cash and half refiners, ag, and SE.

SE is the perfect stock to embody this market, always has been. It went from $40 to $400 in the recent bubble and now back into the 50s, clownishly. There are major institutions who own it and buried by it and it’s the perfect stock to bounce, if there even is such a thing.

Since I’m not feeling well, perhaps it’s allergies or perhaps something a bit more, I’ll be trading light, but checking in every now and then in between nightmares.

I’m feeling under the weather and may very well be DYING of COVID-19. If I do die, just know that I was grateful for not having been vaccinated, seeing the FDA just approved booster number 5. I’m here alone in my dark cold basement, sleeping on a very uncomfortable chair with moving boxes all around me.

There was some data I wanted to share and some of it looks good for potential upside buying action soon. Basically, the bull case is stocks are down and normally when the mood is this grim bottoms are put in. The argument against a bottom is the fact that we’ve yet to see massive unemployment numbers, which are coming soon and in a big way.

Ok, here’s the stuff I wanted to share.

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS CANCELLED THE SALE OF OIL AND GAS LEASES IN ALASKA – CBS.

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 12, 2022

Hardest hit industries the past 9 months, total collapse, trillions lost pic.twitter.com/S1Ygq16A3R

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 12, 2022

Cloud stocks cheapest since 2016, via ?@stocklabsapp? $WCLD pic.twitter.com/OHhMUr1UUn

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 12, 2022

Second worst start to New Year. 1932 was peak Great Depression. Biden is a piece of shit https://t.co/tJ6ariTZb7

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 11, 2022

NASDAQ FUTS are up 80. If we gap up, I’ll likely just move to cash and take what I can get and then reload at the close.

I thought it was funny until it wasn’t anymore. I was barely down all session and then we STEAMED lower into the close. I closed down 1.7%, a formidable loss — but not my concern at least intraday. I am worried about tomorrow, which is why I sold out of my 2x TQQQ position and replaced it with a 2x UVIX hedge. I am in a 17% cash position and certainly exposed on the long side. In the event we violently flush in the morning, I will close out the UVIX and go long. If we gap the open, I will close out the UVIX and probably most of my longs.

I permitted myself to be comfortable today and didn’t take the selling seriously. There was immense damage done to the tape, in a number of stocks.

Irrespective of what the market does tomorrow, the next phase of this bursting of the bubble will be job losses, millions of them. By Fall we will be discussing how best to jumpstart an economy barreling into depression.

Perhaps a world war will save us, financially speaking.

After so many accounts have been emblazoned with losses and the margin call telephone festooned with the guts of all of the zeroes out there, I have decided to bulk up long here. I doubled down in all of my positions and even started one in UPST, now trading 2.3x sales — an absurd valuation all things considered.

I am cognizant of the fact that Tiger Global, Ark Funds and many others are getting their brains blown the fuck out — but I am old enough to remember all of the previous fires and how they burned the brightest when they were just about to be extinguished. Shorting here is on par with believing “this time is different.” In many ways the dynamics of the market IS different, with the Fed fixing to screw us. Also, this is merely the opening salvo into what will likely become a depression. That being said, I am not in this for the long term and I am merely trading to and fro. I was up 1% earlier and then after I doubled down my losses accelerated to 1.6%. Right now I am down 40bps, basically a giant nothing burger, with 13% cash.

The temptation is take quick profits is always lurking. However, there are times and places when you must take a shot and seeing so many stocks down more than 10% today (390) has me believing in a capitulation near term bottom trade might be happening today.

With 1 hr left to trade and stocks back to selling down, it looks like we might CRASH THE FUCKING CLOSE. I will reserve the rest of my cash and margin for an opening flush out tomorrow.