A Change Is Going To Come

The theme heading into this week, an early option expiration and tax day (oh joy) is change.

For the first time since the mid-February rally began, we’ve had about 3 weeks of range.  Perhaps this is a time-based correction, the worst kind of correction, one that quells volatility.  But it looks like, according to the tea leaves, we will be testing the low end of our range these next five days.

It is hard to bet against the market in these conditions, but last week the rotations became more fluid for sellers.  As much as I want to take a firm bearish stance, I need to see the sellers become more aggressive, and globex volatility kick back in.

See also: A Decline Has Begun and Should Accelerate This Week

For now, I am cautiously bearish and looking for clues before becoming heavily active with shorts.

Members of Exodus, the latest Strategy Session has been published. Be sure to check it out.

The end goal of our financial system is negative interest rates and the elimination of cash.

Therefore it makes sense to see buzz around names like PayPal.  Today the rumor is American Express is bidding to take over PayPal.

See also: Why Would Twitter Let MasterCard in The Peer-to-peer Money Game?

If one can seamlessly transfer money to their friends using Venmo, what is to stop a similar offering existing for bars and corner bodegas?

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price held yesterday’s low before pushing higher, up through the pocket-zone (see green/red volume profile on chart below) and settling in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

The economic calendar is light as we close out the week.  At 10am we have Wholesale Inventories and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Which is interesting because Wednesday was a trend up. Thus yesterday’s action came as an unpleasant surprise to bulls.

Market Profile theory states that any entry in the direction of a trend day is “risk free” heading into the following session because we take out the session’s high (if trend up) by at least a tick more often (I have not run this study independently).

However, when you consider the current range, spanning about 7 days, since the major trend day back on 3/29, it makes more sense viewing these last two days of up and down trend.  The intermediate term time frame is battling it out after a multi-month rally higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4490.25.  Look for buyers here and a move to target overnight high 4504.75.  This sets up a fast move to 4524 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push a full gap fill down to 4470.50.  Look for buyers around here and two way trade to ensue, but for price to stay range bound between 4500 and 4460.

Hypo 3 strong sellers fill overnight gap down to 4470.50 then set their sights on overnight low 4458.25 setting up a move to test Thursday’s low 4450.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers push up through 4524 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to close Wednesday’s open gap up at 4535. Stretch upside targets are 4538, 4545.50, then 4569.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, & measured moves:

You guy’s don’t want to see this happening–I’ve been drawn back into the dark world of individual stocks.

Just now I went to the market and picked up some JOY.

Know this: I have not purchased a single stock in 2016, yet here I am, atop the bulletproof market rally, buying Joy Global.  Be afraid.

See also: Stock Market Stuck on Win

Seriously, I bought shares in a company.  I am the one they smell and destroy.  Joy Global manufactures underground mining machinery and surface mining equipment.  SMH

I found the rally and I intend to kill it.  Godspeed lads.

There are only a few resorts in Las Vegas I will even consider for poolside party or lodging: The Cosmopolitan, The Bellagio, and Wynn Encore.

It’s no surprise the first ever iBankCoin investor conference was held at the Encore–we only patronize the finest establishments in the United States.

Now news is out hard ball Steve plans to expand his Las Vegas offering big time, in what is being called Paradise Park, a 38-acre lagoon of greatness.  Visitors can lounge on pristine white sandy beaches, walk the boardwalk, go parasailing and water skiing–feats once impossible in the arid Mojave desert.

“We have a chance to reinvent Las Vegas and make the whole venue an entertainment attraction an idyllic beach paradise surrounded by white sand beaches,” said Steve Wynn chairman and CEO of Wynn Resorts. “People come to Las Vegas from all over the world to live large and have a good time and we can dish up an irresistible entertainment attraction.”

Steve Wynn is an iconic businessman.  If you’ve never listened to his conference calls, you’re missing out.  While the rest of these gambol houses rot, WYNN is GROWING.

No word on which DJ will be dropping heat on this new venue first.  WYNN s

NASDAQ futures are priced to enter Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held balance in yesterday’s upper quadrant for most of the evening before succumbing to selling early this morning.  The selling was truncated well above yesterday’s midpoint before two way trade resumed.  The ECB talked dovish very early this morning, and t 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have consumer credit at 3pm and at 5:30pm Fed’s Yellen is having a talk with former Fed Chairs Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke.

See also: Masters of The Universe (Past and Present) Plan Ceremonial Meetup Tonight in NYC

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a trend up.  The day started flat, and an early attempt by responsive sellers to defend against a test above Tuesday’s high was overrun by strong initiative buying.  The accumulation continued throughout the entire session, trading up through the open gaps left behind Tuesday (4/4 close, 4499.25) and Monday morning (4/1 close, 4529).  Price trended right up through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4535.  From there look for a continued move up through overnight high 4539.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4546.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers defend ahead of 4522 setting up a move to take out overnight low 4508.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4487.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling off the open pushes down through 4487.50 to target 4472.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4468 before two way trade ensues.

UPDATED Levels, volume profiles, gaps, and measured move:

Something to keep on your radar, though it’s unlikely to have an impact on S&P 500 prices, is this evening’s meeting of Federal Reserve Chairheads.  The guest list includes former greats like Paul ‘Pall Mall’ Volcker and Benjamin ‘Blunt’ Bernanke as well as the nagging Allen Greenspan and dangerous Janet Yellen.

They will likely enjoy a round a tea sandwiches whilst making quips about foreign central bank leaders.

The meetup starts at 5:30pm and Bernanke usually sparks the first blunt around 7.

China is out for blood in one of the most sacred parts of the coveted shared economy–they want to dominate ride sharing.  Their horse, Didi Kuaidi, is lead by heavy hitter Cheng Wei, who doesn’t shy away from aggressive posturing:

Didi Kuaidi, China’s largest ride-hailing service, has warned arch-foe Uber Technologies Inc. that its days are numbered.

The startup backed by the country’s largest Internet corporations is stockpiling cash for the battle ahead. It raised the target on its latest round of funding to more than $1.5 billion, which could value the company at more than $20 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person asked not to be named because the matter is private.

“We will be the last one standing,” Vice President of Strategy Stephen Zhu told the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. “Why is our competitor consistently 20 to 30 percent cheaper but still failing to gain market share? It’s because the customer experience is not as good, their network is much less than ours.”

– Source: Lulu Yilun Chen, Bloomberg

The customer experience is not as good using Uber, according to Mr. Zhu.  Even if America starts winning again, building walls and whatnot, it will be difficult to keep out digital competition bearing down on us from the communist people of China.

The Chinese foam and shake at the thought of internet domination.  They will stop at nothing to eliminate the purple hats at Lyft and the black cars of Uber.  Soon all drives will be united under the red flag of Didi Kuaidi!

Both Facebook and Twitter were mentioned in a rumor that MasterCard might be interesting in working with the social media companies to offer peer-to-peer money transfers.  Twitter ended the day up nearly 7% but so did a bunch of other mobile/social plays.

SEE ALSO: Social Media Dogs Are Running

Peer-to-peer money exchange is already huge.  Venmo, for example, facilitated over $1 billion in payment in January according to their blog.  Their recent NYC subway ad campaign created tons of buzz also.  Meet Lucas. Lucas uses Venmo.

The social aspect of Venmo is really fun.  You essentially include a tweet’s worth of text and emoticons with any fund transfer you make.  Thus, it makes lots of sense for Twitter to have peer-to-peer transfers.  Goodness, Snapchat already has this, via SnapCash.

Do you know what powers SnapCash?  Square.  Square also has Square Cash which facilitates the same ends as Venmo.  And who heads Square?

Jack Dorsey

Jack Dorsey is not Lucas.  Jack Dorsey is a bearded man who is CEO of two publicly traded companies.  Jack Dorsey runs a peer-to-peer money transfer company and Twitter.  Yes, Twitter, the company that rallied 7% today on some MasterCard noise.

Get out of here with that nonsense.

This is according to the New York Post who reported that John de Mol wants the wrestling empire.

The New York Post reported that John de Mol, a Dutch media tycoon best known for the “Big Brother” franchise is interested in buying the company. The publication, citing its sources, noted an offer was extended to Vince McMahon to acquire the company, should the 70-year-old executive ever decide to sell his empire.

This news comes on the tails of Wrestlemania 32, which is being considered a rousing success by its diehard fans.

The WWE has been an acquisition target since 2014.  It seems Vince McMahon’s wrestling theater is stronger than ever.