You take what you can get and adjust to your conditions.  The sooner you tune into a paradigm shift, the better.

Information costs money. Sensing the proclivity of a certain asset class, we shall call it MOMO, to form ‘fake moves’ before making ‘real moves’ was not a free lesson.  Quite the contrary, mates.

Nevertheless we must will ourselves into accepting external events one way or another and on we go.   Fungula, that is the pet name.  It also harks to tones from the underworld, earning it the persona of a succubus.

It’s fast as is the evidence of whether your right or wrong.  None of this waiting around, wringing your hat baloney.  And I appear to have acclimated to it.

In short, now would be a perfect time for volatility to vanish entirely and put me back on the drawing board.  FML, I suppose that’s why I toil away 10 hours of my weekend on the WSS.

Comments »

The market has a special way of keeping participants right on the edge of their seat, doesn’t it? Right when you think all hells about to break loose, you are given a gasp of air. One to keep you going so you may live to be milked another day.

Or do the milking, your decision.

Me I have committed to the fungula methodology. It is a system developed behind three security doors at the Raul facilities. Our Asian correspondents have labored 1000s of hour to perfect it and it is my task to implement it.

If your humor reservoir is drained after a hard start to the year, I understand. Know that your faithful servant Raul is dancing on the rim of the volcano with you. I am wearing a coat of chainmail and it s putting a nice singe on my nips. But here me out: Wednesday my play was AMZN and I scrapped a win off that trainwreck of a chart albeit smaller than I would like and with both hands on the wheel. Today’s fungula play is FB. Look at that horrific chart. Brah, I like it into the weekend.

Because brah the music is still playing, and even if it’s a big ragtime, we can still get down, yes?

Comments »

Oil is by no means out of the woods, but on this week’s round of buying it did show signs of auctioning well. The first push up went right to the MCVPOC formed in the balance formed at the beginning of January. Then the subsequent completion wave went and kissed the daily VPOC from 01/05 before we found a sharp responsive seller.

Coming into today sellers made a strong defensive response at $47.74. This action is responsive in relation to where we closed out yesterday, but initiative in relation to the bigger trend and also the initial response up over $50.

On the buyside, we saw buyers active at Wednesday’s VPOC. Overall, we are seeing some order in the behavior of oil prices, a constructive sign for the otherwise plunging commodity.

You can see my levels below:

Comments »

The primary hypo today was to ‘spill over’ the shelf at 4106.75. The site has been the scene of some valiant responsive buyers a few times this morning. However, we are lingering here as we press into lunch.

The overnight stat is still open (89.52% odds of taking out either ONH or ONL). Buyers need to show up soon or the door swings open for lower prices. But, the formation has the chance for balance. So, it is a v.edgy sitch, no doubt.

Comments »

Comments »

We have a theme here. It is mythological, it is showing its teeth daily, and you might want to listen. There is a succubus in the marketplace. She swears no allegiance and is out for blood.

Her favorite haunts are at the cusp of breakdowns and breakouts.

If you choose to collude with the succubus, you would be wise to wear a mask and other protections and by all means do not give into her temptations.

Today’s victim was AMZN. Never has the stock complex seen a more clearly setup short. Therefore it had to be bought.

Fun-goo-la, FUNGULA!

You know we keep it simple.

In other news, a vicious short covering rally took hold in energy names today as the January contract went into expiration. OPEX shenanigans continue. Gird up your loins and report for duty, this doesn’t end tomorrow.

Comments »

Comments »

You have to adjust to the present if you want to stand a chance trading. Constantly learning and performing is the only way you will sustain yourself in this hyper-competitive field.

In four days a whole plethora of leverage [options] will expire worthless. This rewards the sellers of premium who took on the infinite risk associated with selling premium.   This is January OPEX, and traders want to hit the new year right, especially if they faltered in the year prior.

In short, the stakes are elevated contextually.

There are so many marquee stocks setting up highly visible short trades. A few weeks back many were enticing a similar looking long trade. Do you know what happened to the breakout chasers? Zeroed out—do you know what I am betting will happen to the breakdown chasers?

Yep.

Maybe you don’t like this trade because you follow trends and you buy stuff that’s going up and you sell stuff that’s going down and that is just fine. You’ll make money doing that in most conditions.

Not these.

I am a buyer of the ugliest looking daily bar charts until I am wholly corrected of my ways. You can stick your anatomy in those shorts all you want.

You know the tickers.

 

Comments »

Over the weekend I managed to develop a charting package for observing the action in oil. For week’s I worked away at this goal and kept hitting roadblocks. Then, during a fierce set of 40 kilo kettle bell swings I had a creative epiphany.

And voila, I can see:

Also, I have gone back to some old favorites, old school market profiles. They almost feel like training wheels, is that bad thing? Not sure, but they really whisper to me. Stay tuned for live reads of stuff like this:

Subs: The Weekly Strategy Session is live.

Comments »

As a trader, these are my favorite conditions. Look at the structure and the story the S&P 500 elegantly tells:

Comments »