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Stating the obvious reason to be bullish

Sometimes you look back and wonder how your mind was so wrapped up in the minutia that you missed an obvious cue.  Sure, my trading and investing is grounded in solid routine and habit.  Yes, I would never take a single trade unless I completed my Sunday research, formed a morning trading plan, and then received an algorithmic entry signal from MOTHERSHIP.  We should have healthy routines for approaching something as important and big as trading index futures, but we run the risk of being so caught up in all of that intellectual work that we miss a not-so-subtle wink from the universe.

Listen to me, did you see that little dog nearly split asunder by the giant fucking longhorn bull last week during an American football match?  That is everything you need to know going into next week.  A pathetic little dog that needs its skin folds regularly cleaned with q-tips, and its butt hole wiped after every poop, was nearly killed on national teevee by a big, healthy Texas long-dicked bull.

The resources wielded by short sellers are very much the size of that dog in relation to the money coming into the stock market every American pay period.

While this weekend has been difficult, and I nearly didn’t make it to my desk to file the Sunday research due to my time being in high demand, I checked in and filed my latest Exodus Strategy Session.  It has all sorts of reasons to be bullish, and it has a plan of attack for the first full week of 2019, but it should be suffice for all readers of this public blog to know that a bullish omen has been sent.

Position accordingly.

ciao

Exodus members, the 216th edition of Strategy Session was late to post, but it is live.  We have an interesting dialogue going in Section III that takes all the recent signals IndexModel has been generating and gives them words.  Be sure to read through how I’ve been navigating this market trough, and what I expect next.

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Put your Vs up, still bullish, bullish into 2019

My bullishness these last 5-or-6 weeks looks foolish in hindsight.  I realize that as well as you do.  There is not much I could have done to avoid this drawdown.  I could have given the failed auction at the beginning of October more weight.  There’s that.  At the risk of looking like a broken clock [not caring so much what I look like] I am once again writing a bullish Sunday blog entry.  I am bullish heading into 2019.

I do not acknowledge that we are in a bear market.  The way people numerically assign this market as being a bear or some other market as being a bull is just another social construct that only exists inside the human brain.  Quite frankly, I think humans are the most out of touch mammals on the planet.  They do not spend enough intimate time with plants or mushrooms.  If they lived in closer proximity to both, and stopped being flesh-eating maniacs, then maybe I would assign more value to their collective thoughts.

We have a long way to go.  The NASDAQ is about 18% lower than its October 1st close.  One of the positions I initiated at the beginning of October [$ALGN] is about -50% over the last three months.  It’s as much a loss of time as it is U.S. fiat dollars on a computer screen.  Other names have been resilient, real resilient.

Like Tesla, all these flat earthers have been mother fucking wrong about that one, ammirite? I’m sorry for swearing. Listen, Larry Ellison joined the Tesla board or directors last week.  Larry, the evil billionaire from Oracle.  If you work in the finance department of any major company, you know what Oracle is like—you cannot escape Oracle.  Oracle makes it all work and you pay your tithing to Larry Ellison whether or not you want to.  The fate of all corporate souls lies in the hands of Larry muh fuckin’ Ellison.  That sort of genius is now a personal guide to Tesla.  I’d imagine they are no longer paying tithing to Oracle either.  Have fun betting against that.

It’s not too late.  To buy Tesla or solar or CRISPR or whatever public stock has a mission you believe in down to your plums.  Truthfully, a lack of faith in your investments will result in you losing lots-and-lots of money.  Will Google’s ideals persevere over the next ten years?  Will Fords?  Two totally different scenarios.  Each able to invoke an emotional response.  Avoid that.  Emotions and investing don’t mix.

There’s still bitcoin.  I had far less bitcoin conversations this holiday, but the few I did have were significantly more meaningful than hearing the regurgitated media talking points 100 times last year.  I still like bitcoin, and since I have no idea what all this forking business is about, I like having some exposure to the other bitcoins too, CASH, GOLD, and SV.

To me, I see little difference between the current market structure and the structure we’ve seen at the beginning of any other ‘v-shape’ recovery since this bull market began got its legs back in ’16.  Fractals of fractals, magnitudes are different, measurements are different, shapes are the same.

There is a key piece of context I will be watching into 2019, it’s the PHLX semiconductor index.  Semiconductors have been the primary driver of our recent growth.  If you recall, our big theme heading into 2018 was Moore’s Law, exponential growth, the rise of AI, and the ushering in of the roaring ’20s, a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen.  After seeing the behavior of our new Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell, I will only add that this exponential growth theory that economic prosperity will be concentrated among less people than I initially realized.  The wealth gap will widen, super wealth will be enjoyed by a select few.

If you have any ideas for pushing yourself over to the right side of the wealth gap before hyper-growth really takes hold, I suggest you put your head down and execute those ideas with an intense urgency.  Otherwise prepare to be left in a massive pool of poverty while others are gilding their staircases with gold and lining their purses with blocked-chain.

You can lose your temper because forces beyond your control are affecting reality in a way you don’t like, or you can remove yourself from the observation, open you third eye, and take a bite out of the pie for yourself and your people before it’s too late.

Ideals are fine unless they hinder your ability to create and execute a solid plan.

Finally, you have no idea how much it means to me that you invest your time into reading my blog,  that you invest your time and money into my research, and how must all your interactions my content help me.  I am so grateful for the community of investors and traders I have to opportunity to interact with both locally in Detroit and online.  I truly believe we can rise up together.  There is plenty of opportunity and no reason for us to wish ill upon each other.  I am not always the best at communicating how you guys help me become a better trader, investor, business man, and human, but you do!  Thank you for all you do.

Here’s to another year of approaching the markets with a steady hand and calm mind, explicitly for the reason of extracting U.S. dollars from the global financial complex.

saluti

RAUL SANTOS, December 30th, 2018

Exodus members, I know the fourth quarter has been a grind.  The 215th edition of Strategy Session is live, check out exactly what I am looking at on the PHLX semiconductor index, and be sure to read through all of Section III and let me know if you have any questions, thank you!

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All of my timing algorithms have failed me

While reviewing last week’s action to prepare the Sunday Strategy session, I kept catching myself feeling negative emotions towards the stock market.  Then venomous thoughts and more anger.  I had to step back and read some Marcus Aurelius for a minute and ended up using a line from the OG emperor as quote of the week:

“You have power over your mind—not outside events.  Realize this, and you will find strength.”

I built my trading career on closing the overnight gap.  I trade it extremely well.  I am the one out of ten trader of fintwit lore, who quietly did one trade well.  Over the years I began adding new trades to my arsenal, notably to Exodus Strategy Session readers I added Rose Colored Sunglasses, Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses, and Bunker Buster.  These ‘biases’ were used as part of a trade I’ve been taking for the last two years or so where I target either a break of the overnight range or the initial balance range.  If bias is Rose Color Sunglasses, I target overnight low/initial balance low, e(RCS) overnight high/IB high, and Bunker Buster begins the week targeting lows, then forces me to pivot at some point, mid-week, and start targeting the highs.

Straight up—Bunker Buster is too fucking confusing to trade in the heat of battle.  I will keep tracking it, but using it to trade futures is off the table.  Power over the mind :::breathes in, breathes out:: power over the mind.

For next week, I am sitting the action out.  Come January I will start rebuilding my emotional confidence by only trading overnight gaps in range, with a little 2-lot, and assess my fortitude on a week-to-week basis.  I will likely be in the mountains for the entirety of February, chasing powdery mountains, then in March I will consider adding back the RCS and e(RCS) trades.

This isn’t my first significant drawdown.  I have been made a poor man many times by the oscillations of stock market price.  I have also managed to extract great sums and put said funds into other investments, like farmland.  Financial markets taught me years ago that they are nothing more than an intangible representation of millions of humans interacting, and that the ‘wealth’ they represent [on paper only] is merely a social construct—much like nations or ‘borders’.  These things are not real to me.  A farm is real.  Farm equipment is real.  Livestock is real.  You cannot take away my work ethic and ability to sustain my people with the fruits of our mother earth.

I love pulling money out of the financial complex and earmarking it for my farm complex.  I will continue to do so for as long as my mental abilities allow it.  While I am a very poor man in stock market and bitcoin terms, I am very wealthy in time, health, workable land, and working capital.  So while all of my timing algorithms have failed me, one after another, big time! –since the failed auction at the beginning of October–I will only be making minor tweaks to them.  I still consider them to be of better guidance than any banker or activist fund (lumps of coal for Andrew Left) or media sound biter.

I also still consider TSLA to be the greatest investment of all time.  It is incredible that Elon and his crack team of scientists and engineers are actually solving modern societies greatest problem (commuting).  TSLA will eventually be the largest company in the world, and when it is we can start to worry about the dumb dumbs in congress jamming the company up.

Investors with long term horizons can seem arrogant during bear markets.  I hope I do not come off that way.  Only time will tell if buy-and-hold and dollar-cost-average will be proven right again.  My money says it will.  Good thing I never plan on retiring.

Merry Christmas everyone.  Here’s to another year down in the trading trenches with you.  Saluti

Exodus members, the 214th edition of Strategy Session is live, we gone make through this bear market, and be better for it!

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Grateful for all the bearish sentiment into year-end

The header photo for this Sunday, December 16th blog entry comes courtesy of The New York Times SundayStyles front page, which I poached from a Howard Lindzon Stocktweet.  It depicts two tiny cartoon humans moments away from being kookslammed by a giant black and white wave with a red crest.  Here is the cover again, for emphasis:

This is the type of sentiment that gives me bullish conviction.  CNN’s Fear & Greed index shows a similar sentiment and the prevailing tone amongst my carefully curated Twitter feed is that the world is fucked and so is everyone else on it.  Bitcoin wealth is all-but-gone and on paper some people look a heck-of-a-lot less wealthy then they did this time last year.

But I do not base my decisions of the capricious sentiment of the herd, or the newspapers, or even the politicians.  Or the raucous behavior of Frenchmen, or the patriarchal shake-ups in Arabia.  I base my decisions on the will of my robots.  They are my guide.  I am their steward.

What are the robots saying?  Last week they said ‘acceleration to the downside then a tradeable low’.  Last week Monday we accelerated to the downside, and except for on the Russell, this resulted in a tradeable low.  Now my IndexModel is back to neutral, while Exodus has a bullish cycle lasting until the end of the half day Christmas eve.  The robots are bullish.  Therefore I am too.

This is a good week coming up.  There is an FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon.  It is a live meeting.  There is a press conference scheduled afterwards and the gambling halls in Chicago are placing 76.6% odds of a 25 basis point lift in rates.  Only 76%.  They usually have more conviction one way or another.  So the hike is not guaranteed, despite being the heavily favored bet.  We like uncertainty.

We also like distractions.  Holidays are distracting.  I fielded over three hours of phone calls this weekend with relatives, some crying, some belligerent, all because of the holidays.  Bringing everyone together can be challenging.  Not being able to satisfy the desires of everyone can be discouraging.  And people are just sort of brainwashed by the consumer cycle foisted upon Americans by the forces of capitalism.  These are rife conditions for a balanced mind to capture opportunities.  This is a good week coming up.

Whether or not rates lift this Wednesday is important, but investors will also be looking closely to see if the Fed is dialing back their intentions to continue lifting rates through 2019.  The 2:30pm press conference will be scrutinized for slight changes in verbiage and tone.  Overall, Wednesday afternoon will serve as a useful guidepost on the week.  The third reaction after the decision/conference will likely dictate direction for the rest of the week.

And listen, while I do my finest work inside the NAS100 futures, I am less concerned with the intermediate-term direction of the indices and more interested to see how individual stocks that I like are behaving.  Tesla, for example.  All this fear and crash sentiment but my favorite stock (and largest position) is a few dollars away from record highs.  Twitter has been fierce. I love solar into 2019.  Sangamo. Goldman.  These are the areas that I expect to see move higher over the coming weeks and months.  That is where my concern lies.  The indices could chop and even head lower, but if individual stocks decouple, this continues to be a healthy bull market.

So there you have it.  The theme going into year-end has been persistence.  I think adding kindness to that theme has been helpful for me.  Persistence and kindness.  Especially kindness for your fellow traders.  2018 has been shaky.  By no means has it been as extreme as 2008 or even 2014 when indices didn’t bother to reflect the huge destruction of market cap happening almost everywhere outside of the FANG stocks, but 2018 has been a test of grit.  Resist the urge to pile onto someone who holds positions that oppose yours.

I am bullish heading into OPEX.  I am bullish heading into this crappy calendar-timed Christmas.  I am bullish into this extremely negative sentiment.

Hopefully I’ve made myself clear and mahalo for reading along.

– RAUL SANTOS, December 16th, 2018

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Plagued by overconfidence

After penning my last entry I embarked on an hour-long drive up a country highway.  They’ve spent the last decade building this stretch of road.  It’s flat and smooth.  It was unseasonably warm and sunny so I starting thinking.  A starling murmuration gyrated above the road, and I remembered how I ended the first paragraph of my entry with ‘Hail Satan.’  What an absurd thing to write, on a Sunday no less.

I have a strange way of coping with things like death or taxes or insurance or organized religion.  Apparently I write shock blogs, worship billionaires, and praise the numeric output of algorithms.

At the core of these behaviors my intentions are pure—to extract as many US dollars as possible from the financial complex whilst keeping a trader blog which conveys and demonstrates real-time, for all the world to see, the mindset that allows a person to consistently engage markets in a repeatable matter to produce consistent results

The blogging is somewhat self-serving, just like weight training.  It serves as a sick kind of mirror I use to find and suss out any odd goblins hiding in my psyche.  I hope it adds value for the reader who is struggling to refine their own mental gymnastic skills and learn to trade.

Near the end of my drive a starling torpedoed just above my windshield that was apparently playing some high speed game of chicken with my car.  I came back to the present and realized how my recent trading performance, while only minorly tweaked, had produced serendipitous returns and that they appeared to have gone to my head, turning me into some kind of overly aggressive rage blogger.  The last thing I want is for that to spill over into my trading or day-to-day behavior.  Sick kind of mirror blogging is.

I apologize for my last blog and acknowledge that it made some dumb claims.  Foremost, asserting that science caused Christianity to shatter.  Christianity shattered into a thousand pieces certainly more so due to the rebellious protestants of Germany.  Science played a lesser role in dissolving the sadistic claim to control the outcome of all mortal souls made by Roman Catholicism.  Not that any of it matters.  The end of one dragon created a thousand more or something.  Again, I don’t know about these things except that I don’t think they really matter to me.  I am simply tasked with earning enough income to relive me of any obligation to an employer or master and being kind to all earth’s inhabitants.

To all earth’s inhabitants.  That includes the political evangelists from the south.  So I am sorry.  I feel bad about the crazy things I’ve written today and many more times in the past, and I will be taking a hard stance against writing that kind of guff again.

I am going to spend the rest of this warm winter day pulling weeds.

mahalo, namaste, and amen

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With old school conservative beliefs gone, I only trust the robots

H.W. is the first President I remember from my childhood.  “Read my lips: no new taxes,” stuck with me.  I didn’t understand taxes, but I saw that taxes angered adults, and this feller was going on the TV and promising no new taxes.  So he seemed like a pretty solid dude.  I knew about as much about politics then as I do now, which is next to nothing.  But I remember liking conservatives back then, back before it became a political arm of the evangelical christian institution, which I find to be the most vile entity on the planet. Hail Satan.

It’s not the christian people I have an issue with.  It’s the institution, and how they are invading our political system and jeopardizing the foundations of America.  The America H.W. made stronger during Desert Storm—a sweeping victory that sent a message across the world that America is the best, #1.

This year has had a transitional vibe to it.  The passing of our 41st President here at year-end only solidifies that feeling.  Enough about feelings and christians.  The algorithms are all bullish heading into the first week of December.

And by golly, all I am here to do is carry out the commands of my robot overlords.  The rest of the information generated by humans interacting with the world is noise when it comes to short term trading, and I need to trade well short term.

I slayed last week.  Slayed.  Best week in months.  I hope you did too, and I hope you all have a prosperous go at the markets this December.

Human interaction is actionable long-term.  This requires long-term patience, short-term urgency.  Like climate change.  We need to urgently address this issue which is why it is so important that we defend the efforts of Elon Musk and his crack team of engineers and scientists.  They are showing us what happens when capitalism attacks an issue—progress.  They seem to even have NASA stoked again and doing good work.  Would NASA be planning to send folks to Mars had it not been for the curious developments at SpaceX?  We don’t know.  That is a different simulation entirely.

What we do know is that TSLA is the absolute best long term investment available on the public stock markets.  Also we know that science shattered the absurd grip christians had on the modern world once before (indulgence, anyone?), and science will topple these flat-earth, conspiracy-loving psychopaths again.

It is best to side with the scientists, believe me.

And the robots.  And the robots are bullish heading into the first week of December.

Behave accordingly.

001010111011

Exodus members, the 211th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Weekend research complete, I’m pretty bullish

Perseverance is my theme into year-end.  I never like to look too far out.  On Sunday, I create a forecast for the upcoming trading week.  Then every morning I establish my plan for the upcoming day, and two alternative scenarios to choose from if the market proves me wrong.  The morning plan is usually complete by noon.  Then the afternoon creates more information.  The next day we make a new plan, and so on.

My brain is wired differently for investing.  I took selling off the table.  Investment accounts do not sell.  Ever.  These accounts just accumulate quarterly with the belief that people are good and humanity is on a long-term bullish trajectory.

With all that being said, going into a very clean calendar style month-end, and with some nudges from my most trusted algorithms, I am bullish until Wednesday 11:30am when Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in New York.  After I see the market react to his words, I will have my bias until the Thursday at 2pm when the FOMC releases minutes from their last meeting.  Then after observing this reaction I will have my bias into week’s end.

One foot in front of the other gets you where you’re going.

What I have demonstrated over the years on this most unholy blog is how I persevere as a trader.  Trading is simple, but it certainly is not easy.  It is a tough gig, emotionally, featuring bouts of over confidence followed by the uncertainly of a draw down.  Long term patience. Short term urgency.

Keep your equity and expectancy curves trending long-term higher and trust your discipline.

Exodus members, the 210th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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All systems aligned: expect blessings from the turkey gods

Last week the signals were mixed and I thought about taking the week off but then I started working intra-day longs after that heavy Monday liquidation pressured prices into a place I couldn’t not do business.  This week is different.  All systems are aligned for a rally.

And it will only take a bit of strength through Monday to invoke the turkey gods whose shadows you can see if you look closely at the horizon during the sun’s rise.

That’s all I have to say about that.  My favorite industries are solar and CRISPR mainly because I invested in both financially and mentally.   They are two small slices of hope in a world pie of despair.

Bullish until otherwise noted.

Exodus members, the 209th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

 

 

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Mixed signals heading into the week and an update on my field work

Greetings lads,

Floods coming.

And until then our job is to take to the financial markets with the explicit intent of extracting US fiat dollars.  Said currency should be stockpiled until the amount acquired is sufficient enough to purchase land as far north as our constitution allows.  I’ll tell you, whoever was representing Canada when the line was drawn splitting North America did a solid for the Canadians—they have all the fjords and 70% of the world’s freshwater.

In any case the incessant desire to burn fossil fuel is putting a lid on our planet and as any Simple Jack can observe, water boils faster when you put a lid on the pot.  So altitude and norther latitudes are the only way to avoid blight, famine, and catastrophe for your children.  Your prayers won’t be of much use, but you may want to keep saying them anyway, especially if you live near the coast.

The models I use to drive my short-term trading decisions are sending opposite signals.  One is triggering a long bias.  The other, a short.  When this happens my default play is to step aside.  You see, unlike the Twitter gurus of the world or the full-time gamblers, I do not need to trade every single day to make money.  I only need to trade when a clear edge emerges.  Forcing myself to only trade when I have a directional bias, an intra-day trade setup, and a morning hypothesis to work with is what elevated me to consistent profitability.

It is easy for me to stand on my little iBankCoin soapbox and preach patience, but I know patience is not the panacea for overcoming the learning curve of trading.  Patience is only effective once you have a consistent and rigorous approach to decision making.  And the development of a style and approach can be an urgent matter that demands your persistence and experience (screen time) more than your patience.  I’m wandering off topic.

I spent part of last week out in the real world, interacting with real humans.  I listened to some smart people talking about blockchain and also a mixed bag of industrialists, attorneys, and drug addicts talk about cannabis.  These two industries are very similar to each other in my brain.  They both are new and confusing and probably illegal.  But it seems like lots of money is made when a business ventures into the grey matter between right and wrong.  It really is an ‘either or’ decision for me.  Either I continue investing in cryptocurrency or I rotate all those funds somewhere into cannabis.  I am taking this decision slowly; asking lots of questions; sizing people up.  I’m not sure I trust any of these cannabis actors.

Speaking of the real world, and if you’re enough of a masochist that you made it this far into my Sunday diatribe, you may be interesting in attending my talk this Wednesday, November 14th from 6-7:30pm.  It’s in Detroit.  Here is a link to RSVP: https://www.meetup.com/Detroit-Investors-Traders-StockTwits-Meetups/events/255982115/

We have room for a few more people, so if you will be in the Detroit area this week, come on down.

Anywho, my signals are crossed so I am stepping aside this week.  Cannabis is illegal but hemp seems interesting and perhaps less illegal.  Blockchain and cryptocurrency is super nerdy and totally out of the limelight, which I like.  And Earth is being brought to a slow boil, gently enough that most of us won’t notice and hop out of the pot before it’s too late.

ciao ciao

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Staying long through a -12% drawdown: how I built a real trading edge

PROGRAMMING NOTE: If you will be in Detroit the week before Thanksgiving, come out to my brief presentation on trading futures Wednesday, November 14th from 6-7:30pm.  Here is a link to RSVP for the free event: https://www.meetup.com/Detroit-Investors-Traders-StockTwits-Meetups/events/255982115/

Greetings lads,

Time changed.  By the decree of man we fell back an hour.  Our leaders can effectively change the time on clocks, but they won’t acknowledge their impact on climate.  Whatever.  Let’s skip right to making money before I lose the attention of my Simple Jack readers.

On Thursday, October 18th 2018 the predictive ‘mother algo’ inside Exodus flagged oversold.  The signal came on the heels of a buy signal that fired on October 4th, so recency bias had the risk of spooking users away from using the information to make money.

First, here is the performance of every major index during the October 4th cycle:

Next, here is the performance of every major index during the October 18th signal:

You may be looking at those two charts and thinking, “RAUL, you dumb sack of shit, not only do you offend my flat-earther sensibilities, you can’t even read a performance chart and see that your precious Exodus buy signals were losers.”

Which is fair.  I did take a proxy position in TQQQ during both cycles, which in both instances generated a 2x loss of the NASDAQ performance shown above.  They were losing trades.  However, the bullish bias worked to my benefit big time over the same period.  Let me explain.

***

I trade NASDAQ futures.  I operate on a different time frame than almost everyone reading this blog.  If you wanted to label my trading, I suppose you could call it medium frequency. My average holding period is about six minutes.  Average.  Sometimes I hold positions for several hours.  Especially if I have a directional bias.

Enter the Exodus buy signal.  When trading within the confines of an Exodus hybrid oversold cycle I only take long positions, meaning I buy NASDAQ futures with the expectation that I can sell them later in the day at a higher price.

I have specific rules defining my entries.  These are setups that I have studied and cultivated over years.  They are my craft.  I can execute them quickly and cleanly, like an experienced chef chopping an onion.  But developing entries is not the purpose of this blog post.  This blog post is about EXITS.

So little attention is paid to exiting positions.

When should you exit a position, and why?  The answer is in the numbers.  The most ratio to track when trading is you expectancy.  Here is the expectancy formula, but we won’t deep dive into the math because I don’t want to lose your attention:

Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

For a trading approach to be profitable, the expectancy needs to be greater than zero.  To cover the overhead of trading as a business, I like to keep expectancy over 0.30.  And overall, when tracking my expectancy, I want to see the arc of my expectancy trending higher.

If you focus on the simple algebra, you can hopefully see (godspeed, Simple Jack) that you have four ways of making your expectancy ratio go up.  Here are the ways of increasing your expectancy, in easy-to-digest list form:

  1. Increase Probability of Win 
  2. Increase Average Win
  3. Decrease Probability of Loss
  4. Decrease Average Loss

Returning to exits.  I need logical reasons to exit a trade—statistics.  The first hour of trade after the cash open is called the Initial Balance (IB).  Did you know that 94.75% of the time, price breaks beyond the IB range?  How do I know?  Statistics, damn statistics, and my only true lover—Microsoft Excel, look:

So we know either the high or low of the first hour’s range will break about 95% of the time.  But we don’t know whether it will break the IB high or the IB low.

ENTER Exodus, BWAHAHAhAHAHAHAHAH

I need to update the study so I can show definitively that Exodus has sharpened my IB trading approach.  But let’s go back to the October 4th trading cycle (10/5 – 10/18) and the October 18th cycle (10/19- 11/01).

How many times did we break IB high before IB low during the October 4th trading cycle?

3 out of 10.  It was a rough cycle.  I was bloodied up pretty badly.

How many times did we break IB high before IB low during the October 18th trading cycle?

6 out of 10.  Back in action.

Here they are, in chart form:

When you have the parameters of the initial balance to work with, the closer you are to IB low during an Exodus oversold cycle, the less risk you have to give your trade, and the more REWARD the trades have.  The initial balances during October have been BIG.  There has ben lots of range to work with.

There is a similar set of statistics that power my overnight high/low approach.

***

Hopefully this short blog post gives you a bit more insight into how I use Exodus/Excel/expectancy to empower my futures trading approach.  Ever since I started using IndexModel and Exodus hybrid overbought/oversold signals to force me to only trade one side of the tape, I have seen a dramatic improvement in my expectancy.

It’s funny, I fought like hell to escape the corporate world and all its structure, yet it is structure and discipline that affords me the freedom I desire.

And that is why I produce a Strategy Session inside Exodus even though I do not receive pay for the newsletter.  I appreciate the structure The Fly created for me, the accountability to my research that came from other people depending on it.  Because it caused me to sharpen my trading edge.  For that I am infinitely grateful and will happily give back to our community of iBankCoiners.  I don’t care if you hate my geopolitical/environmental views, I know we are all here with the explicit intent of extracting fiat dollars from the global financial complex.  These are my ravenous people.

Working through these cycles, one after another, is how I make my way through the world, no one’s master, no one’s slave.  Right now I have no cycle to work with.  That means I will only be scalping the price levels revealed during the morning trading reports and only when I feel like it.  Tight risk, quick 8-9 point scalps.

Neutral until otherwise noted.

Exodus members, the 207th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!  Be sure to take a look at Section IV, I like the story semiconductors are telling.

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