As per the usual modus operandi (extra redundancy) I navigated today’s trade without media outlets like the teevee and with very little twitter exposure.  Instead the news came through the filter of a well curated group of elite traders in the 12631 trading room.   “No taper” they said, the exploding /ES and /6E charts told me the rest—risk rush on.

Reacting is a dangerous beast unless your reactions are decisions contemplated hours and days in advance from the war room (home office).  I took SKF off first, as I rehearsed in my mind last night.  Then I took a wish list of stocks and picked two: CLF and Z.  Zillow was an obvious buy because I love the company and housing will quickly become the catch up play as we dash to Xmas. CLF was a pure chart buy that could play catch up. Then I dove back into the big wave riding competition in the green lit halls of globex.  Futures good friends, I held my own with the big kahunas.

I’ve had 2k days on sessions like this.  Today was much more modest, but much less stressful and a hell of a lot more precise.  When November rolls around and I’m trading the size I want to deploy my scaling system, these will be 2k days again.  I ran before walking, fell quite a bit, decided to start walking, and soon I will run again.

6 trades: 5 long – 1 short, 6 winners.

Seeing as RBCN was my largest position going into today’s tape, yes, I did have a good day…thank you.  What would have made it only better but without it I still high watermarked would have been holding onto EXK which I regretfully cut this morning.  Regrets, I’ve had a few as Sinatra says.  It ripped the tits off and looks ready to continue ripping the tits off this week.  Now I feel like I am missing the action, therefore I am.  I will revisit the miners this weekend.

Oddly yet amusingly enough, RVLT paired up with IMMR, smoked entirely too much MJNA and enrolled in Clown College. Due to their heavy course load, 7 credit hours, they will be too busy to participate in this ramp up. They will instead focus on balloon animals, banana cream pies, and terrifying children.

The question that should be at the front of each of your minds is, “Is this euphoria?”  Because, I can tell you I feel a bit euphoric.  I will be breaking down the days leading up to this moment, all the blogs, all the behind the scenes homework, and psychoanalyzing this win ship to find repeatable strengths.

The work load only increases when you are winning, you must love the process as much (if not more) than the outcome.

Get some rest and come back early tomorrow, for today is only Wednesday.

http://youtu.be/nhflmIbyHbg

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After narrowly escaping a swarm of viscous flies keen on eating my flesh, I’m happy to be reporting to you from the deepest waters of Lake Michigan. Verizon has been kind enough to supply the lake with an acceptable data feed sufficient to update my internet people.

When soliciting the advice of strangers on the internet, there comes a time when one must ask themselves, “Why, in fact, should I listen to this man?”

Many things happen to a person who submerges himself into the news flow. It makes us feel smart and ‘in the know’. We read blogs; first hand accounts from the trenches of industry or sports or fashion. Depending on the trustworthiness of the information, we act and often times we overreact.

I used to hate overreaction.

Which brings us back to the important matter of Raul, floating in the lake, mind swirling from the crafts of brewers and wine makers, having the gall to provide financial commentary on a tier one website.

Tier one, mind you.

I came into the morning very long volatile names, names like $RVLT, $ENPH, and $END. I put faith in my finest futures trading robot to trade at full automation today. More on that in a moment. Sensing maturity in the bounce, I scaled off shares of YGE and MHR at respectable levels from a rain soaked campsite. But #bossram alpha was enjoying the long side of the tape, so I went about my day, exploring sand dunes, beaches, tearing down backcountry roads on a speed board, and letting my longs ride.

When I checked in just now and found the market much lower, I nearly choked on my pipe smoke. How could it be? Things were going so well. The first thing I noticed was ‘El Roi’ my favorite algo, extracted $175 dollars on the way down, in ten minutes. Well done El Roi, which is Sapnish for, ‘the return on investment’.

Next I saw AMBA. Oh the laugh I had when I saw AMBA! At my fellow traders, long of the shares? Goodness no. I’m in deep correction in RVLT and wouldn’t wish that upon my comrades. However, what a comedy of overreaction. This is now an unacceptably oversold situation, one in which I intend to extract income.

Pray for weakness early tomorrow, so I may buy the shares with great pomp and vigor to make a quick 10-15 percent.

You see? I have hardly heard news of any war out at sea. It passed by only, like a cool breeze on my face.

I still want more shares. I want your jetsam…the jetsam you tossed overboard as your mispositioned ship took on water.

Then I must suit up to race on one of the greatest road tracks in America. Because, my friends, you only live once.

Trade’em well

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I trade my worst when I feel chaotic.  I feel chaotic when I’m taking unplanned trades because I’m not trading with any structure.  I long ago accepted and embraced that much like an ocean, I cannot impose my will upon the market.  The market is the final arbiter.

There have been situations where unexpected news resulted in my losing money, like OCZ.  In that situation I felt an anxiety perhaps, more like a tension in my shoulders, and when I cut the loss I immediately felt a sense of relief.  Relief is a sensation, and sensations are one of the cornerstones of habits and habit formation.

Perhaps cutting CREE right here at this juncture would provide the same sensation of relief, but in this situation that would be a detriment to my long term goals.  Goals I’ve mapped and planned for prior to embracing this position.

Commenter AKwitdemBeamz commended my riding through a bludgeoning in CREE these last two days and likened me to Slim Pickens riding the nuke.  For those unfamiliar, he is referencing the most iconic scene from one of the most entertaining movies of all time, Dr. Strangelove.  As flattering as it is to be associated with such a feat of courageous greatness, my first thought was AKwitdemBeamz thinks I’m trading this position like a cowboy.

Shooting from the hip, if you will…

Everyone loves the big shootout scene in a western.  It’s usually the climax of a story and our hero cowboy, seemly outnumbered and certainly outgunned singlehandedly (or perhaps with the help of his faithful steed) dismantles the villains, restores order, and rides off into the sunset.  All this, mind you, happened against all odds.  That’s why we love it.  It’s seeing the low probability happen: the diving catch in the outfield, Jeb Corliss Grind The Crack, or the 65 yard field goal in overtime.  As breathtaking and impressive as it can be to watch these cowboys, you’re watching someone defy the laws of large numbers and probabilities.

I’m not a cowboy.  What I’m doing, right here right now with CREE is planned—god damned brooded upon while mopping floors.  Because when I have a plan, I don’t feel the chaos, and when I don’t feel chaos I trade my best.

I’m going to share my plan with you because I want this to go down as a nonevent, merely another blip in the trading timeline.  BEHOLD: The plan.  If it seems too simple then perhaps you’re too dense.  This is a weekly chart, this is an investment, but it’s always amorphous.  If conditions arise that suggest a retooling of the plan, such decisions will be made.  Typically the plan is reassessed when one of the following levels is traded:

“I ain’t no cowboy, gus”

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You can ‘get by’ being mediocre.  You may even be so lucky as to afford the occasional weekend vacation from your modest suburban home.  Your children can attend mediocre schools and earn mediocre grades in spelling and mathematics.  You can buy a dog off craigslist and admire its scruffiness and lack of AKC certification.

You might even set up a horseshoe pit to occupy your red necked relatives while you barbeque hotdogs.  Fun times will be had by all.

I’ve traded mediocre all day, when I should be trading like Chief Keef, if that makes sense.  Sure, I’m long, with about 50 percent of my book.  Yes, I took two planned trades today in the futures, that earned chicken and beer money.  But where’s the tenacity?  Where’s the gumption?

I’ll stop speaking to my own subconscious now and address you, good people of iBankCoin.  I traded like a little baby today, hiding under my sheets from the risk reaper.

Buying END yesterday was so perfect.  I sized the position perfect: 10 percent of my book.  The light and sweet ripped overnight, so I woke up like, “now these shorts can’t leave.”  Yet I SOLD 2/3 of my long below $4.50, for what?  I don’t know!  I wasn’t getting my fix fast enough.  I should have been scaling off right here, at 4.67, earning me more meat before trimming down to a runner.  The trade has tacked 50 basis points onto my YTD return already, but it could have easily tacked on 100.  I’m keeping my runner and aggressively hunting out more oil opportunities.

My second $ES_F trade I played along inside The Pelican Room, it fruited early and I earned my first scale, 1.25 points.  Already being a puss, I nudged my first scale in a tick.  Don’t ask why?  Because I don’t know except the market paused for like 30 seconds.  Then I sat through the lunch hour baby sitting my final contract.  I started thinking the upside progress would clunk out so I raised my stop a few ticks above the logical support.  You can guess what happened next: the market stopped me out to the tick then went One Direction, up, for four handles.  That was my pay day.

I feel really confident about my trading right now.  I’m so close to making a breakthrough, closer than most of you will ever be.  Perhaps you’re this close too or at least you have been, but just at this moment your willpower fails you and you give up.  That must be what happens, why 90% of traders fail, because they give up when they’re so god damned close.

RISE UP MOTHA FUCKAS!

 

I’m close

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It was a week of setbacks in the market for yours truly, being on the receiving end of two major blows.  Going into the weekend, I had to rid myself of one of these losers and of the two, TPX and ENPH, I decided to cut ENPH.

It was not an easy choice but it was most certainly a necessary choice.  I want loose capital, ready to pounce of fresh ideas.  Hell, I may even buy some ENPH next week, who really knows?

There were big winners this week. Zillow spent most of the week pressing into the necks of their high short float…I wish I hadn’t sold, but perhaps we’ll get a downdraft next week to latch onto.

Facebook was hands down the darling of the market, perhaps restoring the confidence of the disheartened retail investor.  I knew this day would come, where I would have a low cost basis in the name, able to now kick back and let the future pan out.

I made OCZ full size early last week, a rare move even for me.  To go full size in a sub $2.00 stock takes a certain amount of gumption and laser clear risk parameters.  As dicey as it seemed to hold the position for 8 sessions with zero progress, it continued to behave constructive.  It was only a matter of time until the shorts were spooked.  Today, I sold ¼ @ 1.75 earning around 5% and another ¼ at 1.825 (damn algos) earnings over 8%.  It’s a great trade so far: a very constructive chart with lots of shorts to fuel a rally and a company that creates wonderful value for the world.  I love it.

I’m beginning to see the potential of smoking shorts out of their favorite hiding places in this aging bull market.  With the tools this site provides, I intend to do exactly that.

I backed off the futures this week, taking a more passive approach.  They intrigue me to no end, and I see huge potential in trading them, but my interest is shifting to day trading these momentum stocks.  There’s an edge to be had in sousing short sellers with the buy cannon and grabbing .40-.50 cents in movement.  If you align your orders with a change in trend in the /es, you’re riding the tide holding a water bazooka.  It just sounds fun!  And I want to put more capital towards this new sport.

I’ve accepted that TPX will likely trade down to $35.00.  Then I want to see how this price level is met as it is of HUGE importance.  I may buy more shares, I may sell, or I may simply hold on to what I have.

This has been another fantastic week working alongside the brightest minds in finance, and I look forward to doing it all again next week.  Have a great weekend.

I’m such a sucker for Bruno Mars, I can’t help it…he reminds me of James Brown in this video, enjoy:

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First off you need a hot ride:

Then there’s nothing like driving into Detroit on a politically heated summer night, a night just like this in fact, and being greeted by the hot stench of incinerated garbage.  It’s a mix of death and cheese that says, “Stay the fuck out of here unless you’re ready for some shit.”

The bond holders are descending on our fair lady sporting fresh pocket protectors.  Their pens are their pistols in the bloody turf war to come.

Most residents I’ve spoke with have an, “it’s about time” consensus on the situation while others are much more titillated.

I’m mostly worried that my urban safari days are numbered.  I quite enjoy early mornings surveying the endless blight.

Here’s one of my favorite scenes, captured earlier this spring.  I call it, Making Lemonade:

That cat really captures the Spirit of Detroit more than The Spirit of Detroit or the giant black fist on Jefferson. He’s down for whatever.

Like any desolate dump, it is surrounded by communities so incredible, bubbles if you will, only a stone’s throw away. This stark contrast and the endless winters are only a few components that make up the talent foundry that is Detroit. We will always work harder as a people.

May the pensions be gutted, the institutions privatized, and the streets gentrified

I’m off to cruise the hood 10 MPH under the speed limit, Corojo in hand.

http://youtu.be/03YUgHAshSo

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I put some oomph behind the old saying because I rather enjoy the occasional cigar.  Whenever I have a thousand dollar day in the futures I go to the shop and pick up a few cigars.  Since starting in April, I’ve done this three times, which is pretty cool, considering my largest position is only three contracts.

But lately I want more cigars.  I know…it’s bad for my health, sure.  Perhaps it’s a summer thing: chilling poolside with a cold blonde ale and a warm blonde female, it’s nice.  So I’ve updated the requirements.  If I can go an entire week without deviating from my plan, then I earn a cigar.

That means if I do what I’m actually supposed to, eliminating the gut trades I LOVE TAKING which statistically speaking donate money back to the markets 67 percent of the time, I can smoke a cigar every weekend.  How vile is that statistic? Can you imagine being wrong that often?  Net-net they’re not profitable either, believe me.

I need to snap this caveman tendency.  Punching walls with my head doesn’t work.

Does anyone else subject themselves to such Pavlovian rewards? If yes, I’d love to hear them in the comments below.

Thanking you in advance,

Raul

PS How goddamn annoying is that closing salutation?

http://youtu.be/TpH_e0of400

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The weather in Michigan has reached the short stretch where it becomes sublime and you’re flooded with memories of what make the murder mitten a great place.  I watered my new cement, one of the joys of home ownership.  Imagine that, desert troglodytes.  I’m surrounded by fresh water, splash.

Cement is a great foundation for building upon.  For weeks after you pour it, the cement continues to cure underneath the hard surface.   Cooling it off with water promotes a more solid cure and whiter concrete.

I could go on about fresh concrete for hours, I love infrastructure.  But instead turn your attention to these profiles building up in the S&P.  My game was thrown off over the weekend, and important work was neglected.  The profiles needed to be chopped and screwed going back to late-May to give us an idea of what’s going on above and where we may expect to encounter resistance.  There’s lots of really interesting stuff going on, but I want you to pay particularly close attention to the following features of the profile chart:

Look at the profile NAILING the RTH high today

Look at the layers of support properly formed and lain below, like good concrete

Look at the OPEN AIR from 1649 to 1661

You better click this one and keep it open on a new tab

The red dotted line at today’s high represents the value area high from the calm morning of 5/30, just before all hell broke loose and a one direction (no homo) move to our recent swing lows occurred.  The green dotted line is the 05/30 VPOC.  Curious, yes?  That we’ve set value in near perfect alignment with this singular event?

Buy orders brought us back here this morning, that’s what today’s P-shape profile suggests.  They came to market early to initiate new longs, or perhaps it was short covering.  Either way the buy pressure abated and/or was met with enough selling pressure to end upside progress for the remainder of the session.  But, not enough to press lower.  You still with me?  Because none of this matters too much.  All that really matters is The Fed.

But we’re here, at a critical juncture, the market will tip its hand, but a tip higher has to simply levitate, as where a missile lower has to carry grade USA bunker-busting power.  Place your bets…

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I certainly hope I’m not beating a dead horse, buying more solar longs into the close.  If I had a time machine that could give me 30 minutes back, I would have bought either GS, XONE, or CHCI.

Especially el CHCI.  Watch that one tomorrow.

But instead I bought a trashy little stock that goes by the handle of HSOL.  May it burn my enemies like ants under a magnifying glass.

Fly favorite (and quickly climbing my ranks) IMMR asserted a nice comeback today and has the look I like.

Believe me…I see the $45 level resistance on TPX.  I don’t care.  They’re selling these beds like truck stop hot cakes.

There was some straight up voodoo going down behind The PPT pay wall today that had members laser focused on higher equity prices.  It scared me a little, I’m not going to lie.  It was like walking in on a séance while the devil plays a fiddle made of gold.

RGLD caught a strong bid on Hilsenrath mouthing off.

Watch what goes down tonight as the sun settles and biblical storms impress upon the east coast.  The birth is happening.  Tomorrow is my birthday and with it comes great power for Raul.  Galactic alignments, hail storms, and ABENOMICS!

I must be off, for many preparations must be made before sunrise.

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Per the modus operandi, I started the day as I always do: panic when the alarm rings and direct my fuzzy eyes to the undersized iPhone for quotes on the futures.  “Oh they’re up wonderfully!” my internal dialogue rattled off.

I had my new breakfast, water with no ice.  It’s very American to ice your water, especially in the morning.  Next the morning commute was divine, showing signs of diminishing congestion. The blessing come summer of less women driving their bastard children to school. 

Upon arriving at my terminal, my minion greeted me with coffee.  I like my coffee just like my women: hot, black, and strong.  I immediately scalp two handles of upside out of the $ES_F.  Then I spot the trend change and capture 4 handles down during the gap fill.  Oh how lovely a morning it was.

Then the bozos kept selling the futures down.  Bozos really, for they’re fighting a losing battle with a structured system much more powerful then they fathom.  So I bought more YGE.  My foray into trading solar stocks isn’t dead, yet.

As we’re all held victim to the caprices of the Yen and its stupid ETF, FXY, I said forget this and had a walk and enjoyed some fancy tacos.  This is nonsensical noise.  Eventually this mess will all be sorted, lines will be snorted, and ladies will be courted.

Moving on to more pressing matters:

The very important matter of my birth is just around the corner, and I refuse to let a stupid little currency and the jackass carry traders sully my good time.  I’m eating many cakes.  I’m eating many cakes with both hands and getting frosting all over my mouse and keyboard.  I don’t care.

Do you see how much I’m not caring right now?

Until the market starts bleeding me out via my swing longs, I’m looking at a very green day of future trading pared with some resilient longs, names like CREE, TPX, and IMMR.  Hat tip on the haptics good Fly sir.

We know how it ends, but can you stomach the intermediate roller coaster?  Find a way how.

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