Nasdaq futures are up a touch as we head into US market open after a second globex session of normalized range and volume. The overnight session compressed in the upper quad of yesterday’s range before making a burst higher.

At 8:30am we heard Advance Retail Sales figures as well as Initial/Continuing Jobless claims. We also have natural gas storage data at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a trend day, for the most part, before settling out in the afternoon and forming balance/acceptance. The last three days have been an exercise in clearing up old open gaps. On Tuesday we went and closed the 5/13 gap and bounced. On Wednesday we continued lower before finding a sharp responsive buy. Then yesterday we pushed higher to close the 6/5 gap and the 6/4 gap.

Bulls will have to consider the fact we left an open gap behind yesterday morning down at 4431. If this market has consistently demonstrated anything this year, it has been a strong proclivity to go back and close gaps.

Nevertheless, this type of methodical trading suggests we’re in a healthy market with multiple time frames participating.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap to 4488. Look for buyers to defend north of 4482 who continue pushing higher to take out overnight high 4500. Overhead targets are 4512.75 and 4515.50.

Hypo 2 buyers push early and take out overnight high 4500 and continue higher to explore the LVNs at 4515.50 & 4520.50. Look for responsive sellers at 4529.50.

Hypo 3 Churn inside the upper quad of yesterday’s range 4473.50 – 4500.

Levels:

My expectation heading into the week was for volatility to be low in the beginning of the week. And while most other indices saw volatility decrease, the Nasdaq has been ripping around, especially overnight.

However volatility receded during this morning’s globex session, and we’re heading into cash open with a normal range and volume overnight session in tote.

This is a slow week for economic events, but the pace will pick up a bit on the tail end of the week. At 7am we had MBA Mortgage Applications, at 10:30am Crude/Gas Inventories, and at 2pm we have a Monthly Budget Statement. Tomorrow morning BMO we have Advanced Retail Sales.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day, and nearly a neutral extreme day. The variation that qualifies a neutral day as extreme, at least in my unwritten book, is closing in the upper quadrant of the day’s range. Neutral days feature a range extension on both sides of the initial balance and tend to occur at-or-near inflection points. The session also printed a healthy-looking excess low that may stick for the remainder of the week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for seller to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap to 4431. From here, it’s not a big distance to take out the overnight low 4430.50. Look for responsive buyers at 4411.50-4407.50 and two way trade to ensue, south of ONH 4451.75.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, instantly leaving unfinished business in their wake, to take out overnight high 4451.75 and continue exploring higher to target 4480.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4407.75 setting up a test of yesterday’s low. Look for responsive buyers from 4387.25 – 4379.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Tuesday on above average range and volume. The session was dominated by sellers who took out yesterday’s session low and continued pushing lower, well into the range from 05/12.

Scheduled Economic events aren’t the likely catalyst to this selling. It appears to be related to the ongoing discussions between Germany and Greece. Today is another quiet economic day for the US—at 10am we have Wholesale Inventories.

Yesterday we came into the week gap down and proceeded to push lower for most of the session. Price travelled down into the 5/13 range and closed an open gap we had down there before finding responsive buyers. The strong rotation off the low was faded into the bell and led to continuing sell flow overnight.

The higher time frame action resulted in some ugly profile prints above, and it will be interesting to navigate these footprints, to say the least.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4433.75. Look for buyers to continue higher to take out overnight high 4441.25 and test the 4450 mark.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, take out overnight low 4403.75. Look for responsive buyers form 4387.75 – 4379.

Levels:

The algos came out hunting longs this morning. They pushed down into the Friday stick save to see if buyers mean business.

So far, the push managed to liquidate some longs, but no real OTF order flow has been motivated by the move. The result? A b-shaped long liquidation profile and a nice, long, pole.

I know you like pole, I do too.

Check it out:

The risk here is the thin nature of the below structure. So if the pole climb starts going south, don’t overly commit to it. CUT IT.

Nasdaq futures are heading into the week balanced and compressed. The overnight session has so far been a narrow (but normal) range on normal volume. The economic calendar is light this week and today in particular only has one low impact release—at 10 am the Labor Market Conditions Change.

Aside from headline risk, that essentially leaves the market to its own device.

Last week we came in ambitious, gap up, and quickly eroded the gap to kick off 3 days of chop. Toward the end of the week sellers worked us lower until we found a sharp responsive bid Friday morning. We closed out the week grinding sideways.

Interesting to note, last week Monday we printed a normal day—we haven’t seen this print in quite some time. It suggests strong OTF presence early in the session, but no conviction follow through afterwards. The footprint it left behind suggests higher time frame selling that was absorbed well for much of last week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher. Look for an early move to take out overnight high 4483.25 followed by a gap fill trade up to 4497.50 with 4508.25 as an upside target.

Hypo 2 buyers push up to 4497.50 then stall out and two way trade ensues with a range of about 4500 to 4473.

Hypo 3 sellers work lower, take out overnight low 4468.75 and test below Friday’s low 4449.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are trading lower as we head into Friday’s trade. The session was active even before the Non-farm Payroll data but obviously the pace has increased since the data. Range and volume have extended beyond first sigma and it will be interesting to see if the volumes carry into the day session of if we instead see action fizzle out as the day progresses.

Also on the calendar today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down to press the low end of our range. Down there we found buyers who emerged late in the session despite being bludgeoned most of the day with selling pressure. If affirms the idea of intermediate term balance.

Heading into today, I will patiently observe the first hour, allowing the post-NFP dust to settle. However, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4497.50 and continue to target the overnight high 4506.50.

Hypo 2 is a seller push down to test below yesterday’s low 4473.25. Look for buyers at 4460.50 then again at 4450.50.

Hypo 3 we chop inside of 4473 – 4500 range.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are coming into the new week (and new month) gap up. The globex session featured an abnormal range on high-end normal volume. The defining feature of the session was a large rotation up, nearly 30 points, that occurred from about 7am to 7:45am. The move is being attributed to rumors of a Greek accord coming out.

We had Personal Consumption data out at 8:30am which came in softer than expected. It introduced a bit of selling into the market. We also have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and Construction Spending/ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

Last week was a holiday shortened week. We came into Tuesday gap down and trended lower most of the session before finding buyers in the former resistance zone from back on 5/8-5/13. They worked price nearly 30 points off the lows Tuesday which led to Wednesday when buyers became initiative and trended price higher all day. Thursday and Friday we chopped about in Wednesday’s upper half range.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory. The push to green was rumor driven and may stick, but I will look for sellers to attempt a gap fill down to 4516.75. From there I will look for buyers to come in and work higher to target the open gap at 4543.25 then a test of Wednesday’s high 4547.50.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out the gap up at 4543.25 before stalling out and rolling over to chop around 4520.50 for the rest of the session.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, take out and sustain trade above 4543.25 to set up a leg higher to new swing high. Measured move targets are 4557, 4560.75, and 4565.75.

Hypo 4 sellers fade the overnight move, take out overnight low 4506.50 and undo Wednesday’s trend day by testing below it 4497.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures were balanced overnight, trading normal range and volume within the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came in solid with Claims holding below 300k for the 12^th straight week. The initial reaction to the news is muted.

Also on the calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, Natural Gas Storage figures at 10:30am, and Crude/Distillate inventory at 11am.

Yesterday buyers came in early and put together a trend day. The action was successfully in traversing the entire developing value area. The day prior (Tuesday) we traversed the range in the opposite direction. We managed to take out the lingering naked VPOC at 4543.50, a reference point left behind on 4/27, the day we hit contract high. Price went slightly beyond the reference point before stalling out ahead of contract high.

Heading into today, my expectations for index moves are low. I am looking for action to slow down and grind with a slight upward bias. Look for buyers to sustain trade above overnight low 4531.25 and set up a push to take out overnight high 4543.75 and test above yesterday’s high 4551.

Hypo 2 sellers continue pushing, take out the overnight low 4531.25 and test the LVN at 4520.50. If buyers cannot defend then we continue testing lower target the MCVPOC at 4508.25.

Hypo 3 buyers try a push higher, stall out around 4540, failing to take out overnight high, setup up a move lower to revisit the LVN at 4520.50.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are trading a touch higher as we head into US open. The overnight session kicked off atop a 30 point afternoon bounce that buyers managed to put together after facing heavy selling most of the session. Range on the overnight session is normal on a normal amount of volume.

The economic calendar is open today. Overnight the Bank of Japan released the minutes from their April 30^th meeting. It yielded little reaction from US equity futures however it has put continued upward pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair. We also had MBA Mortgage Applications at 7am this morning which came in a bit worse than expected and also yielded little reaction.

Yesterday we came into the holiday-shortened week gap down and had an open auction outside range before failing lower. Selling pressure was heavy throughout most of the morning and attributed to news about the Europe/Greek situation.

The nature of the move calls it into question. It was news driven and left behind a string of poorly auctioned prices. If the move is legitimately the start of a correction, then we likely won’t spend much time above the overnight high 4490.50.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap to 4481.25 and a continuation lower to push into yesterday’s bounce. I will look for signs of buyers at 4470 who work us back up above 4485.

Hypo 2 is buyers push above the overnight high 4490.50 early and we begin “climbing the pole” up to 4525.

Hypo 3 is sellers push but struggle to close overnight gap before buyers step in and we begin the pole climb.

Hypo 4 liquidation continues. Look for buyers around 4460 who ultimately are overrun and we continue exploring lower prices. Stretch target is the open gap at 4424.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are lower ahead of the start to a holiday shortened week. The session featured big rotations both up and down, and volume is running just a touch above first sigma while range remained compressed into normal territory.

The economic calendar is chock-full of events to wade through today. At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in-line with expectations with orders for Capital Equipment climbing for a second month. The initial reaction to the data is selling. Also on the docket today we have House Price Index at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence at 10am. Also this evening the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s April 30^th meeting will be released.

If I had the software capabilities to do it, I would completely remove Monday’s trading action from my charts. I am skeptical to give any weight to trade data that occurred while the underlying components were closed. Conversely, on my Market Profile chart (the letters and turquoise shaded volume distribution) I prefer to see all activity on the Nasdaq futures.

We formed a large distribution last week (and during the holiday) just below our contract-high session back on April 27^th. Instead of making new highs, the distribution formed and then we headed lower. Meanwhile, on a slightly higher time frame, we are coming into balance. This can be seen as several sessions of overlapping price action. Overall it seems the market is accepting higher prices and forming value.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for choppy action. With the busy economic schedule and the holiday rebalancing needed, fits and starts with little accomplished seems likely. I will look for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and take out the overnight high 4528.25. I will look for signs of sellers up around 4530 who work us back lower. The I will look for the remainder of the session to back-and-fill around 4520.50.

Hypo 2 sellers push the lower early on, taking out 4503.25. Look for buyers around 4496.25 then two way trade to set in around the MCVPOC at 4504.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through the volume pocket at 4496.25 to test down to 4489.50 where buyers come in and we back-and-fill around 4496.25.

Hypo 4 buyers push up through 4536 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to new highs.

Level: