NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked slightly higher overnight before balancing out.  This is the fifth gap up we have seen this week.  At 8:30am Non-farm Payroll data was slightly better than expected.  So the the reaction is mute.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but.  They only occur about 5% of the time.  The day began with a gap up and sellers pushed hard off the open.  Then, the rest of the day was spent trading inside the range established during the first hour of trade.  Balanced.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close teh gap down to 5889.50.  From here, we continue lower, down through overnight low 5881.  Buyers show up just below and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers push down to 5840.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5906.50 and continue higher, up to 5942 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up, the fourth gap up this week, after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session.  Several companies posted stronger-than-expected earnings, including Tesla:

Tesla Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $(1.33) vs $(1.80) Est., Sales $2.79B vs $2.55B Est

At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Service/Non-manufacturing Composites and Factory Orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up.  We briefly probed the weekly high then reversed and drove lower.  The gap was filled and we continued lower, down to the lower ATR band before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press off the open and probe the Wednesday high 5935.50.  Look for sellers up at 5942.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5910.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5895.75.  Look for buyers down around 5870 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press below last Thursday’s low 5844.75.  Look for buyers down at 5840.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on normal volume.  Price spiked higher Tuesday afternoon after Apple reported earnings well above analyst expectations.

Apple Reports Q3 EPS $1.67 vs $1.57 Est., Sales $45.4B vs $44.89B Est. at 16:30:24

At 8:15am ADP Employment change data came out below expectations.

USA ADP Employment Change for Jul 178.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 158.0K

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and sellers quickly worked into the overnight inventory to close the gap.  Then we spent the rest of the day marking time, waiting for Apple earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher.  Look for buyers to work up through overnight high 5947.50 and tag 5962.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the Apple earnings move and trade down through overnight low 5885.75.  Look for buyers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 5962.75 setting up a move to target 5980.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Note: Despite the IndexModel coming into the week with a bearish bias, we are back to a neutral stance after the stronger-than-expected Apple earnings.  If sellers manifest Hypo 2, then we can consider returning to leaning bearish.

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday, the first trading day in August, gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher and held inside the Monday range, coming into balance around midnight New York.  At 8:30am Personal Consumption data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing/Employment and Construction Spending at 10am.  At 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off 4-week T-bills, then Apple reports earnings after closing bell.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The week began with a gap up.  Sellers pressed into the gap and closed it, then continued down through overnight low, ultimately testing the low-end of value (set last week) before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  Look for sellers to step in around 5906.50 and begin working lower to close the gap down to 5890.25.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5875.50.  A bid steps in just below and two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5915.50 and work up to 5920.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down through 5860.75 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to probe below last Thursday’s low 5844.75, potentially setting up a move to target 5841 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher until about 3am New York time.  Then we balanced out just above last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar is hot this week but it starts off slowly.  Despacito.  At 9:45am Chicago Purchasing Manager, 10am Pending Home Sales, and at 11:30am both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week we drifted higher through Thursday morning.  The Dow was trend up all week.  The Russell was under pressure.  The NASDAQ and S&P made hard moves lower Thursday afternoon then stabilized into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down but inside the Thursday range.  Then we spent the rest of the day slowly working higher, slowly working the gap fill.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5911.75.    From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5897.25.  Look for buyers down at 5879.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5933.50 triggering a quick rally up to 5962.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through 5872.50 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to test last Thursday’s low 5844.75.  Look for buyers down at 5841 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday at record highs after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher overnight, sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly.  Durable Goods and Advance Goods Trade Balance data came out at 8:30am and both were huge bullish beats.

Then came the earnings.  Here’s this morning’s big winners:

Comcast Reports Q2 EPS $0.52 vs $0.48 Est., Sales $21.165B vs $20.86B Est.
Mastercard Reports Q2 EPS $1.10 vs $1.04 Est., Sales $3.1B vs $2.97B Est.
UPS Reports Q2 EPS $1.58 vs $1.47 Est., Sales $15.75B vs $15.5B Est.
Celgene Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.82 vs $1.78 Est., Sales $3.27B vs $3.23B Est.
P&G Reports Q4 Core EPS $0.85 vs $0.78 Est., Sales $16.1B vs $16.02B Est.
Twitter Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est., Sales $573.9M vs $536.5M Est.
Dow Chemical Reports Q2 Operating EPS $1.08 vs $1 Est., Sales $13.8B vs $13.61B Est.
Southwest Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.24 vs $1.20 Est., Sales $5.7B vs $5.72B Est.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed nominee Quarles confirmation hearing at the Senate banking committee at 10am, then a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap up, sellers stalled ahead of record highs instead going range extension down.  Sellers, however, could not close the overnight gap.  Then the Fed left their key borrowing rate unchanged at 2pm.  Third reaction off the announcement was a sell, but buyers ultimately took the day back to the highs. Then, after hours, several strong earnings reports pressed the NASDAQ even higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and press down to 5974.  Buyers step in here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5948.75 then take out overnight low 5947.25 setting up a move to target 5936.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5993.50 and tag 6002 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 6002 triggering a rally/trend higher.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher early this morning while company-after-company issued earnings well beyond analyst expectations.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in below last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have the Fed Rate decision at 2pm.  There are several other low-impact events before the announcement including New Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gay down and push lower, but sellers were unable to take out the Monday low.  Instead the auction reversed higher and spent most of the day working upward.  Price was contained however inside of the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher off the open, up to 5967.50 before we pause ahead of the Fed decision.  Look for third reaction analysis after the announcement to give direction into the end-of-day.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5935 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5927.  Look for buyers around 5920 MCVPOC as we wait for Fed decision.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up through 5974 and sustain trade above it, causing the NASDAQ to trend higher up into the Fed decision.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, holding inside Monday’s range.  Just after closing bell Monday, Google earnings erased much of the progress achieved by buyers late into Monday’s session.  At the core of the selling reaction was the $2.7 billion dollar anti-trust fine levied against the tech giant by the European Union.

At 9am today the House Price Index came out slightly below expectations.  Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began flat and buyers made a move up to the open gap from last Thursday (primary hypo).  Sellers then stepped in and pushed the market range extension down.  Then we traversed the entire daily range, pushing neutral, then to new all-time highs before ultimately falling back to the daily mid after Google.  Neutral print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to 5937.50 then stall.  We then take out overnight low 5920.75 setting up a move to target the naked VPOC at 5907.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, down through overnight low 5920.75 and work down to fill the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5842.75  and probe Monday’s high 5954.75 continuing higher to 5967.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Action was balanced overnight.  Price briefly exceeded the high set on Friday.

On the economic calendar today we have Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began strong with price action drifting higher through Wednesday before balancing out.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ formed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and choppy opening hour which ultimately gave way to afternoon buying.  Buyers were unable, however, to close the overnight gap by the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5922.75 and close the gap up at 5924.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5905 and work down to the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to new record highs, above 5935.50 and work up to 5953.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, holding onto Thursday’s range.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  A morning gap down was sold into, pressing briefly below the overnight low and into range extension down (hypo 3).  Then a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5924.50.  From there we continue higher, briefly poking above overnight high 5932.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 5895 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to the open gap at 5833.25 before two way trade ensues.

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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