NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of August with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher overnight until about 5:30am New York, marking a new record high. Since then price has retraced the overnight move, effectively returning inside the Monday range and dipping a bit below the Monday close. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up beyond the Friday range. Buyers drove into the open, campaigning price right up to 15,500. A bit of back-and-forth at the century mark occurred before the campaign continued making new highs, eventually tagging 15,600 and sustaining trade up at this next century mark into the close. This effectively migrated value up to the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 15.677.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers hold buyers around 15,605 setting up a move down through overnight low 15,563. Look for buyers just below at 15,550.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers effectively erase much of the Monday rally, trading down to 15,500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Monday in August gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked slightly higher overnight, making a new record high and then drifting along it. As we approach cash open price is up above the Friday high.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a big gap up across the board to start things off followed by a conviction buy trend Monday. Steady gains through Wednesday. Selling pressure Thursday immediately negated Friday morning by another day of conviction buying. The Russell 2000 lead the way.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. It nearly resembled a double distribution trend up and these labels are only generalities but given the auction behavior I am classifying it as a normal variation up.

The session began with a slight gap up in range. After a brief two-way auction sellers made a try at closing the overnight gap. They could not and this was followed by a initiative buyers spiking price higher, to new all-time highs. Price nearly checked back to the midpoint before buyers came in and began a slow grind higher, a slow grind that migrated value up to the highs and made new highs. We ended near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a tight drift along the highs, ranging between 15,450 and 15,420.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers campaign price up to 15,500.

Hypo 3 sellers close the gap down to 15,423 then take out overnight low 15,415.50. Look for buyers down at 15,400 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NADSDAQ futures are coming into the final Thursday in August with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price sort of drifted lower overnight, working down into the Monday range for a bit. Then it rotated back up into Wednesday range. At 8:30am GDP and jobless claims data came out inline with expectations and as we approach cash open price is hovering below Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up in range. Buyers drove higher off the open, working up to a new all-time high in the first 15 minutes of trade. This would mark session high and sellers quickly resolved the overnight gap shortly thereafter. Then sellers pushed an early range extension down. Sellers could not, however, campaign price down through the Tuesday low. Instead price drifted below the daily midpoint for several hours before ramping up through it late in the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject a move back into Wednesday low 15,333 setting up a move down through overnight low 15,295.50. Look for buyers down at 15,262 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 15,200.

Hypo 3 buyers reclaim Wednesday low 15,333 and sustain trade above it setting up a move up through overnight high 15,383.50 and a prove beyond all-time high 15,397. Look for sellers at 15,400 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last Tuesday in August with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price worked higher overnight, making new all-time high prints until about 6am New York. Since then price has faded a bit, and as we approach cash open price is hovering inside Monday range up near the highs.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am followed by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a gap up nearly above last week’s entire range. Buyers drove higher off the open, putting up at all-time-highs early in the session. The campaign continued higher right into the lunch hour. Then price stabilized and held the highs into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 15,384 on their way to tagging 15,400.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 15,500.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 15,301 setting up a move down to 15,262.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last Monday in August gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price steadily ascended higher until about 10:30pm New York, gradually trading up near (but not exceeding) all-time-highs. Since then price has balanced up near last week’s high and as we approach cash open price is hovering right along it.

On the economic calendar today we have PMI composite flash at 9:45am followed by existing home sales at 10am.

Last week featured weakness early Monday which discovered a strong responsive bid and sent markets rallying hard into Monday’s close. Gap down Tuesday reversed much of the Monday gains followed by selling pressure through Thursday morning. Strong bidders reversed the auction Thursday morning and rallied price nearly back to unchanged by week’s end. The Russell 2000 was significantly weaker that the other major indices.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap up inside Thursday range. Buyers stepped in after a brief open-two-way auction in range sending price up through the Thursday high before the overnight gap could be filled. Price worked up near the Monday open gap but did not exceed it before sellers stepped in and worked price back down to the daily midpoint. Buyers defended the mid and we bounced away from it, flagged along the daily high for a bit and then rallied back up to the high by end-0f-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Friday high 15,098 setting up a move up through overnight high 15,153.50. Look for sellers up at 15,161 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out all time high 15,172.25 on their way to tagging 15,200.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight inventory and close the gap to 15,091.75 setting up a move down to 15,040.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the Thursday before option expiration down -100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 2am New York when sellers stepped in and drive price lower. The selling campaign took price down to levels unseen since mid July. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out better than expected and as we approach cash open price is trading down near the lows of July 21st.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down. After a brief open two way auction buyers resolved the open gap and continued higher to briefly probe above the overnight high. Just before buyers could go range extension up, around 10:27am the poked above the daily high and the auction failed. This sent price traversing the entire daily range and into an early neutral print. Price sort of walked over the mid once more before sellers made a new daily low. There was one more check back to the mid around 2:45pm before sellers began their final selling campaign which would continue right up into the closing bell, closing on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 14,851.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 14,892.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation down through overnight low 14,710.50 early on setting up a move down to 14,600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the Wednesday before OPEX essentially flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. Balancing along the Tuesday midpoint. At 8:30am housing starts/permits data was mixed with starts below forecast and permits above. As we approach cash open price is trading just above the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap down in range and after a brief test higher at the open sellers drove into the tape, effectively tagging the Monday VPOC which had stayed down near the lows. Buyers reacted here, driving price to an early range extension up which was met with swift responsive selling. These sellers managed to press prices into a neutral print and down below Wednesday’s low. Low of day would print a bit after 1pm New York and we spent the rest of the session working back towards the daily midpoint, eventually closing slightly above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 15,028.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,951.50 on their way to tagging 14,900.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation down to 14,827.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price briefly poked higher overnight, taking out the Monday high by a few ticks before falling about -50 off of it, balancing for several hours, then continuing to campaign lower. At 8:30am retail sales data came out much lower than expected. On that note, Walmart earnings this morning exceeded analyst expectations despite a -34% drop in profitability year-over-year, hit by tighter margins and higher expenses. The retail giant is -0.50% in premarket trade. As we approach cash open price on the NASDAQ is hovering a bit above the Monday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production and business inventories at 10am followed by a speaking engagement with Fed Chairman Powell at 1:30pm.

Yesterday we printed what can be best described as a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down in range and after a brief test higher that did not quite fill the gap sellers stepped in and drove lower. The drive saw price down through last week’s low on heavy volume and made an early range extension down before responsive buyers stepped in. The auction sharply reversed in the late morning, and began to campaign higher, steadily making its way back to the midpoint and then breaking through it on the way to pressing neutral, effectively closing the overnight gap and then closing on the highs.

Interestingly, value on the day never shifted off the lows, suggesting the market may be eager to revisit the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory but stall around 15,071 setting up a move down through overnight low. Look for buyers down at 15,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work a full gap fill up to 15,134.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through the Monday low 14,917.25 and tag 14,000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into third week of August gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering inside the Friday range, down near the lows.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we saw a steady, week-long rally in the Dow and S&P while the NASDAQ and Russell marked time. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day which is anything but. Happening a bit less than 20% of the time. The day began with a gap up inside range. Sellers quickly resolved the gap after a brief open two way auction. By 9:45 the daily low was in and price began to campaign higher rallying up near the weekly high but never exceeding it. Instead an excess high would form within the first hour of trade before the rest of the session was spent chopping the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 15,125.25. Buyers continue higher from here to take out overnight high 15,130 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low setting up a quick tag of 15,046.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 14,988.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday essentially flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out in-line withe expectations and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower half of Wednesday range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. Price action was fast early on. Before the bell CPI data put a strong spike into the market and by the the opening bell rolled around there was a gap up in range. After a brief two-way auction sellers drove down into the gap and made short work of closing it. There was a brief battle at the UNCHANGED line before sellers resumed their campaign, effectively taking out the Tuesday low. We chopped along the lows for a bit, making an early range extension low before responsive buyers bid price back up into Wedneday range. We spent the rest of the session sort of chopping along the lower half of the days range, never revisiting the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work price up through overnight high 15035. Look for sellers up at 15,060 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 15,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 14,983 then continue lower, taking out Wednesday low 14,963. Look for buyers down at 14,936 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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