NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last week of July down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. price was balanced overnight, balancing below last Friday’s low until about 7:10am New York when sellers stepped in and drove price lower. As we approach cash open, price is hanging onto the lower quadrant of the 07/08 range.

On the economic calendar today we have housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week equity markets rallied through Wednesday morning then featured selling pressure for the rest of the week. Russell 2000 was bearish divergent all week long. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up in range. After a brief open-test higher, sellers stepped in and filled the gap then continued their campaign lower, taking out the Thursday low around noon. Just below Thursday low was a strong responsive bid and price rallied back to the daily mid. Sellers were a wall here, defending a setting up a fresh rotation lower which lasted right up into the closing bell. We closed on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and tag 14,600 before choppy two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, tagging 14,400. Look for buyers down at 14,334.25.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 14,667 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are heading into option expiration day up about +70 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Thursday’s range until about 8:30am when retail sales data came out stronger than expected and introduced buyers to the tape. Since then price has worked up through the Thursday midpoint and as we approach cash open price is hovering about +40 handles above the Thursday mid.

Also on the economic calendar today we have retail sales data at 8:30am followed by business inventories at consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap down. Sellers drove lower off the open, taking out the weekly low within the first few minutes of trade before finding a sharp responsive bid (very sharp) that quickly negated the selling. Sellers then made a second sharp move lower, pushing an early range extension lower, then we methodically rotated lower for for several hours. Around 2pm New York the auction reversed and steadily campaigned back up to the midpoint. We ended the day below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 14,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 14,771.50 then take out overnight low 14,736 setting up a move down to 14,700.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 14,900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing inside of Wednesday’s range. Price nearly took out the Wednesday low around 7:45am New York but was bid higher before it could do so. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly better than expected and we approach cash open price is hovering about 30 points above the Wednesday low.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am followed by Fed Chairman Powell set to speak at 9:30am. Then we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range and after an open-two-way auction buyers stepped in and worked price up to a new all-time high. The auction failed at this point, and after chopping back to the mid a few times sellers became initiative and worked us into a range extension down. This selling was met with sharp responsive bids right around the Tuesday volume point of control. Said buyers formed a sharp, excess low and sent price back up through the mid. Sellers held mid twice though, and we ended the session chopping along the bottom-side of the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 14,962.75 setting up another tag of 15,000.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,864 setting up a probe below Tuesday low 14,833.50.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 14,751.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NADSAQ futures are lower by about -70 as we make our way to the opening bell after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, pressing to a new record high and sustaining the gains until 8:30am when CPI data came out higher than consensus range. In the moments after the print price fell -80 and has continued to move lower since, off more than -120 from the high. As we approach cash open price is bouncing along the Monday lows.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a Treasury Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day which is anything but. Normal days only print about 20% of the time. The day began with a gap up beyond the Friday high, nearly at all-time high but not quite. Sellers drove lower off the open, successfully campaigning the gap fill and taking out overnight low by a few ticks all within the first 45 minutes. Then responsive buyers stepped in and worked price back to the daily mid. Sellers defended for several hours, and we chopped until about 2pm New York on the bottom-side of the mid before ramping higher into the bell. We never made a range extension however.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into this CPI reaction, working price higher to close the overnight gap 14,880 then continuing higher, up through overnight high 14.927.50. Look for sellers up at 14,948.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers take out 14,948.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a run to 15k.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 14,814 setting up a quick move down to 14,751.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ future are higher heading into the week after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range until about 8am New York when buyers stepped in and initiated higher prices. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have 6-month bill and 3-year note auctions at 11:30am and 3- month bill and 10-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week featured a choppy drift higher during holiday-shortened week. Russell 2000 lagged behind all week but ramped strong into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap down in range. After a brief open-two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove higher, driving up through the Thursday high and unto last Wednesday’s range. We ended the week chopping along the Wednesday midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, setting a new record high above 14,883.75 on their way to tagging 14,900.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 14,948.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,811.50. Look for buyers down at 14,751.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper half of Thursday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap down below the prior three days’ ranges. After a tight open-two-way auction outside range buyers stepped in and attempted the reclaim the Tuesday (weekly) low. Sellers rejected the move, sending price down near, but not quite closing the open gap left behind July 1st. Instead responsive buyers stepped in and formed a sharp excess low. This would be the low of the sesion. After chopping along the top-side of the mid until about noon, buyers stepped in and rallied price back up near the Wednesday low. Sellers met this action and sent price back down to the mid, but a late-day ramp propelled prices back near the high into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 14,742.75 pm their way to tagging 14,788.25.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,640.75 and tag the Thursday VPOC at 14,635 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 14,528.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Thursday in July down a quick -200 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 2am New York when sellers stepped in and began campaigning price lower. Said campaign continued down through Wednesday low around 3:20am and then down to a new weekly low around 5am. Then the campaign continued lower, working down through the gap left behind on 07/02. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly worse than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering around 14,600, below the prior three days’ ranges. Pro gap down.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 11am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up to record highs and after a brief open two-way auction outside range sellers stepped in and drove lower, filling the overnight gap and working to an early range extension down. Responsive buyers were found ahead of the Tuesday midpoint and after rallying back to the daily mid we spent the rest of the session chopping along it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to attempt to reclaim the Tuesday low 14,625. Sellers reject the move setting up a push down through overnight low 14,544. Look for buyers just below at 14,529 and for two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower. Sellers take out 14,529 early on and sustain trade below it, setting up a push down through 14,500. Look for buyers down at 14,450 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers aggressive off the open, reclaim Tuesday low 14,625 setting up a quick run to 14,700. Buyers then continue higher, closing the overnight gap at 14,803 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday-shortened week gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range. Price was balanced for the extended Globex session, which began Sunday evening and extended through Monday. Around 6am Tuesday price drifted up and away from the balance and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM services index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured strong buyers early Monday who squeezed prices higher, then we drifted for much of the week before accenting with a rally Friday. All week the Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and a small open drive higher. Responsive sellers faded the early drive but were unable to take out overnight low. Instead buyers stepped in and worked the market into a range extension up before noon and we spend the rest of the afternoon rallying, eventually closing along the high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to buyers to gap-and-go up to 14,800.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 14,864.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,711 then take out overnight low 14,671 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are heading into the first day of the third quarter down a touch after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, first pressing higher and making a new record high then traversing the entire Wednesday range and taking out the lows. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out a bit better than forecasts. No move in price really. Likely investors are more keen on hearing the NFP data tomorrow morning. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have PMI manufacturing at 9:45am, ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10am and then 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down in range. A slow open two-way auction accomplished very little. Eventually we made a range extension up late in the morning but never managed to close the overnight gap. Instead price probed below overnight low a bit and found a responsive bid then essentially marked time, walking all over the midpoint in an apparent local-to-local chop.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 14,553 then continue higher, up through overnight high 14,606.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,498.25 setting up a tag of 14,470.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 14,400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of June with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range. Price was balanced above the Tuesday range until about 2am New York when sellers reclaimed the range. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out slightly better than expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near the Tuesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and farm prices at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up, the second consecutive print of this day-type. The cash session began with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the gap and took out overnight high during a brief open two-way auction in range. Then there was a battle along the daily midpoint for a few hours which eventually gave way to a rally during the lunch hour. Said rally continued, grinding to new heights right up into settlement and spiking a bit higher into settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 14,598.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,527 setting up a tag of 14,500.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 14,470.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »