Wednesday, September 28, 2016
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Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

Activist Short Seller Pummels LaCroix Parent $FIZZ With Damning Report; Company Immediately Calls The Claims Lies

soren

Shares of $FIZZ are all over the place today after Glaucus Research group issued a 62-page report.  They are also short sellers in the stock.

National Beverage Corp, parent company to beverages sold under brand names like La Croix, Faygo (Detroit, where my juggalos at?), and Shasta issued a response shortly after calling the report “false and defamatory,” in a scathing take down of a report they claim was intended to “severely manipulate” the company’s stock price.

After being down nearly -20% today, the stock has rebounded but is still off by -6%.

Glaucus Research has made some good calls in the past, including shorting AAMC in early 2014.  They produced a Hitler parody during their stay as short sellers, putting custom subtitles on the widely parodied German film “Donwfall.”  It’s actually hilarious, and they were right.  AAMC shares went from over $1000/share to right around $10/share today.  Here’s the video:

Glaucus has had some other hits (and misses) along the way.  Bloomberg with the details below:

Glaucus, which publishes most of its research reports on its website, has targeted more than 20 companies around the world. It came to prominence with a report on U.S.-listed Universal Travel Group in March 2011, claiming the Shenzhen, China-based company falsified its financial statements. The company voluntarily delisted in April 2012. The next year, Universal Travel and two former executives agreed to pay $935,000 to settle a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit alleging that it defrauded investors.

More recently, Glaucus made its first foray into Japan in July when it criticized the accounting of Itochu Corp., which trades everything from commodities to clothing. Itochu strongly denied all allegations. While the shares tumbled the day of the report, they’ve since recovered all losses.

Glaucus also targeted Hong Kong’s Tech Pro Technology Development Ltd. at the end of July, sending the shares down 86 percent the day it said the company overstated profits and inflated the purchase price of acquisitions. Tech Pro demanded an apology, saying the report “has no merit” and is “defamatory.”

Source: Tom Redmond, Bloomberg

In good form, National Beverage Corp immedietly came to the rescue of their shareholders (mostly Nick Caporella, the company’s chairman, chief executive officer and founder, who holds 74 percent of its shares) and issued a PR response.

A false and defamatory “research report” was published today by Glaucus Research Group (whose actions relative to other alleged manipulations can be found on the following site http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/open-letter-to-the-sec-to-regulate-market-manipula). We believe that this “report” was intended to severely manipulate our stock price downward in support of short sellers, whose short position has dramatically increased over recent weeks. The allegations in this “report” are untrue and are based on allegations made in a complaint for the purpose of extorting money from the company. That action was dismissed as being without foundation and the complaint was found to be based on lies. Having failed in that effort, the plaintiff and others associated with him, in violation of both confidentiality agreements and court orders, shared his false allegations with short sellers and their co-conspirators.

Source: Company issued statement, Business Wire

These wild swings are creating opportunities for short sellers to cover, longs who trust the company to add, and momentum traders to just get inside the tape and poke out some gains.

The hit piece calls for an investigation into the firm’s accounting practices.  If they succeed in having an investigation launched, even if it is ultimately proven untrue, share of FIZZ could be in the proverbial ‘fag-box’ for a long time.

Writers note: I started buying FIZZ literally two days ago, FML

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Market Behavior Normalizing at All Time Highs

This is not normal

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced and held the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range before taking out the Tuesday high.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders came in better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying to a House Panel at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-Year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 7-Year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The market opened flat, briefly probed lower, 2-ticked the Monday low, before driving higher and closing the gap left behind Monday morning.  Price consolidated and accepted last Friday’s range before buyers became initiative near the end of the session, shifting value to the day’s high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop as we wait to hear from Yellen.  Look for a move to take out overnight high 4873.25 but sellers just above at 4874.50 and we settle into two-way trade.  Look for the market to find direction for the day during Yellen’s testimony.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4848.75 and we find buyers just below it, settling into two way trade.

Hypo 3 strong buyers continue initiating fresh risk and push the market up to close the gap at 4886.50.  Stretch target is taking out the weak high at 4892.25 and targeting 4900 then 4907.

Hypo 4 sellers drive price back down to 4835 and test the top-end of last week’s balance again.  If buyers do not defend prior value high aggressively, we could press down through the entire value to target 4800.

Levels:

09282016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09282016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

 

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Prank Video Tricks Apple iPhone 7 Owners into Destroying Their Phones

aapl-prank-oct2016

Never underestimate the gullibility of the general population.

A video claiming that users can add a headphone socket to the iPhone 7, which only has a Lightning port, by drilling into the bottom of their phone has been watched almost 10m times.

The prank video shows a man drilling a 3.5mm hole into the bottom left edge of the iPhone 7 held in a vice. It points to the row of small holes on the left side that replaced the headphone socket present on the iPhone 6S and claims that drilling into the second hole on the left reveals a hidden socket.

Once the hole has been drilled the video shows an iPhone 7 playing music, although the sound comes out of the speakers, not the white headphones now inserted in the DIY hole.

Source: Samuel Gibbs, The Guardian

The incentive to drill the hole exists because when Apple revealed their latest smartphone last week the speculative fears of many materialized into an expensive reality–the universal 3.5 millimeter headphone jack is gone.

The YouTuber who produced the video “specialists in smashing technology for your pleasure” according to his profile.  Despite his unique skill set and having other videos featuring the destruction of the iPhone 7, some people went ahead and destroyed their phones after watching the now-viral video.

Now their phones are either completely dead or malfunctioning.

Threats are being made.  The leftists want his account shut down.

Moral of the story–not everything you see on the internet is true.  Here’s the video, enjoy!

 

 

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The Right Stocks Head Higher on Low Overall Breadth

RUFFEandDOWNEy

Just dropping a quick note on today’s breadth, which is weak–the overall equity complex is seeing only about 62% of the stock universe higher on the day according to Exodus.

However, the right sectors are on the move.  Tech leads the way which is evident when you compare the NASDAQ to the S&P 500.  On Tuesday the tech-heavy NASDAQ managed to reclaim last Friday’s range while the S&P still trades well below its respective Friday range.

Utilities are lower, which bodes well for bulls after the sector lead the charge last week, which can be a sign of investors becoming more risk averse.

Finally, Basic Materials are taking a beating, lead by oil.  Neither Gold nor Silver is helping the sector–both metals are lower on the session.  Overall, the metals appear range bound, and by their performance may buoy the Materials group if we see bidders defending the low-end of range.

Or it could snap the range and careen lower.  Never completely dismiss the possibility of an established range breaking.  Risk management 101.

Everything stated above can be derived from a quick glance at the below chart, which is one of my favorite visual tools inside Exodus:

visual-breadth-oct2-16

Breadth is low, but it is showing up in the right places.  Hot, story stocks are running while everything else sort of meanders.  With pace slowing, the ball is back in the confident hands of the bull camp.

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NASDAQ Futures Coming into Tuesday Flat After Active Night Session

index-trump

Futures on the NASDAQ are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked down through the Monday low briefly before finding a strong bid right at the MCVPOC that formed throughout late-September at 4801.50.  Buyers pushed up through the entire Monday range before eventually stalling out just ahead of Friday’s session low.  Price then fell back down into the Monday range ahead of cash open.

There are several economic events today, all low-medium impact.  At 9am the Case-Shiller Composite 20, at 9:45am the Markit Service/Composite PMI, at 10am Consumer Confidence, at 11:30am a 4-week T-bill auction, and at 1pm a 5-Year Note auction.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened gap down and after an early drive lower buyers stepped in and pushed the market range extension up.  Buyers could not close the gap down into the week, however, before price began working to a new session low before ultimately coming into balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for choppy trade that works lower.  There is a market profile ledge at 4812 that price spills over and we work down through overnight low 4800.75 to target 4799.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 the chop gives way to higher prices.  Sellers cannot push the market down through 4812.  Instead we work higher, up to 4837 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through 4837 and take out overnight high 4846.50 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 4858 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

09272016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

09272016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

 

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Tecate ‘Beer-Wall’ Ads Set To Mock Trump During #DebateNight

image

All day this ad has been running hard on Twitter:

The ad depicts two groups of men meeting at a knee-high wall, presumably on the Mexican border, to drink bottles of frosty Tecate beer.

The advertisement is set to run during the debate. The ad pokes fun at the republican presidential candidate for his stance on immigration reform.

It goes to show how much of a circus this election has become. Tonight’s event better resembles a WWE pay-per-view event than a discussion on world policy.

Tecate is one of the beers sold by Molson Coors Brewing Co. (Ticker: TAP) and is imported from Mexico.

Their support of Hillary Clinton speaks to the desperation of huge global conglomerates to ensure try can continually chase cheap labor around the globe for the benefit of their EPS, even if it’s at the expense of America.

Look for the ad to run early, much like Budweiser would march out the Clydesdales during the Super Bowl.

Your best protest against Tecate is to drink Modelo instead, America’s fastest growing imported beer. Or craft beer if you’re one of those people. But be sure to drink beer before the main event, the matchup you’ve all been waiting for.

Be sure to tune into iBankCoin’s special debate page for live content and other shenanigans like Hillary’s Cough tracker.

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China Lifts Ban on U.S. Beef

Chines researchers hold three cloned pigs born on October 12, 2006 in Harbin, northeastern China's Heilongjiang province, on October 15, 2006. The cloned pigs are the first success case of cloning pigs in China.  Photographer: EyePress News. Credit Line: EyePress News/EyePress City, Province: Harbin, Heilongjiang. Country: China. Region: China. Source: EyePress.  **** This photo was licensed for one time use only. PLEASE CLEAR THE COPYRIGHTS WITH THE OWNER BEFORE REPUBLISHING THIS IMAGE.****

A collective shiver runs down the spine of life as China lifts their ban on USA beef.

Thirteen years ago the Peoples Republic of China banned imports of most US beef to avoid the mad cow disease.

China has banned imports of most US beef since 2003, partly due to the concerns over the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, also known as “mad cow disease”. The lifting of the ban will be subject to the completion of detailed quarantine requirements, which will be announced at a later date, the statement said.

Premier Li Keqiang told business groups in New York on Tuesday that China would soon resume imports of US beef.

Source: The China Post

Cattlemen in the United Steaks can rejoice at the demand that is sure to come from the far east, where billions of businessmen spend most of their days dining at large, meat filled tables.

While doctors and other health officials have made progress in educating American citizens on the best practices of consuming land mammals (small cuts, 1-2x per month), the Chinese give zero fucks about consuming bovine at industrial rates.

Thus, the USA will ‘manufacture’ beef at industrial rates–effectively starving our land of resources like water and feed while emitting greenhouse gasses.

Then there’s the whole murdering of animals on assembly lines, to take the sting of killing a living being away.

Expect meat producers to rage higher, going forward, as long as we do not send them any more Mad Cow.

If you are a soulless capitalist and simply want to make money, no matter the expense to our planet and universal life, here are most of the ways you can play the bull market in beef (courtesy of Exodus Market Intelligence):

$AGCO $ALB $ALCO $CERE $CHEF $CRESY $FOGO $FWM $GPRE $HBI $IBA $ICCC $JBT $LUK $NATH $PAHC $PARN $SIAF $TSN

Writers note to PETA: find a way to get this ban reinstated

 

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Sunday Traders ‘Check Back’ To Pre-FOMC Price Levels

retailsalesGUYS

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked lower to test the topside of a value the market formed before the FOMC rate decision last Wednesday.  Buyers showed up and defended the region.

On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week began choppy but ultimately gave way to buying after the Federal Reserve left their key borrowing rate unchanged.  All markets but the Russell 2000 made new swing highs post-FOMC.  However, the Russell was the best performing index on the week.  Below is the return of each major index last week:

09252016_indexperf

Last Friday the NASDAQ opened gap down and after failing to regain the Thursday range it pushed lower to close the Wenesday/Thursday gap, ultimately printed a neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade back to Friday’s low 4848.25.  Sellers reject a move back into the range and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4858 then take out overnight high 4859.50.  Look for sellers up at 4862.25 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4819.  Buyers show up around 4815 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, down below 4815 to target the MCVPOC at 4801.50.

Levels:

09262016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
09262016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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My Thoughts on The Upcoming Week

Four horses are very close, but Mr. Gnarly has pulled into the lead as the horses round the final bend in the first race.

The month of September was good.  It had 5 Thursdays and Fridays which is neat.  The expiration of the September futures contract brought in some much needed volatility and offered me a chance to add some NASDAQs to my purse after a long stretch of scraping by.

Now it comes to a perfect end, on a Friday.

I work off statistics.  And the only stat I have says we are exactly 67% likely to drift higher to start the week.  So my inclination is we drift higher.

Under the surface rotations are drifting away from risk.  The Utilities sector performed best last week as we made new highs across several of the major indices.

Cooler temps are settling into the north.  This shift may prompt the squirrls to start storing their nuts for safekeeping during the winter, resulting in a rotation away from equities.  However none of it seems threatening.  At least not yet.

Finally, the first Presidential debate is Monday evening.  There are bars across the city hosting live viewings.  It is going to be lit.  Whether the market reacts is uncertain, but the events of Monday evening are likely to tint the entire week.

Do not let it sway you.  Keep your vision objective by relying on the information provided by actual order flow.  Market behavior.

Exodus members, the 98th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is published. It details the market data I will be closely watching and a funny but timely quote from Bill Belichick.  Go check it out!

 

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Former Wells Fargo Banker Urges Everyone To Abandon The Bank

wfc-lowlevel

When John Shrewsberry, CFO of Wells Fargo gave a consoling speech to his fellow c-suite bankers in New York City earlier this month we could sense the toxicity of life inside Wells Fargo.

Their ruthless behavior is even more evident after Kevin Pham,  a former employee of the banking firm took to Facebook and penned a viral post telling everyone to peminantly suspend any account they hold at the San Fransisco bank.

To Wells Fargo Customers and Employees,

I’m a former Wells Fargo employee and am writing this to voice my concerns about the CEO’s response to the fraudulent account scandal and to suggest actions we can take as individuals to hold them accountable.

To give you some background, I worked at Wells Fargo from 2008 to 2010. During my time there, I witnessed the alleged toxic sales culture and victimization of unwitting customers first hand (yes this culture dates back to before 2011).

This extreme pressure forced bankers to specifically target the most vulnerable customers, such as the elderly, young, non-native english speakers, and financially unsophisticated.

I’ve heard of children of elderly customers coming in to ask why their parents had so many accounts that they didn’t use. I’ve seen low income customers have accounts charged off due to fees and their credit destroyed.

I admit, as a young and naive Teller, I participated in these practices, but didn’t realize the gravity of my actions until I became a Banker myself. I personally had a mental breakdown trying to reconcile the conflict between my job responsibilities and my ethics. I brought my concerns to my District Manager in 2010 and was accused of making excuses for my poor performance. I quit shortly after.

Source, Kevin Pham’s Facebook account

Pham goes on to condemn top executives of the bank for accepting zero responsibility for the fraudulent accounts.  He then blasts the government for fining the company “0.8% of 2015 Net Income” for the nefarious banking scheme.

The young man also organized a two-day event at the Wells Fargo World headquarters where attendees are encouraged to #CloseYourAccount without rioting or burning hard-working businesses to the ground.

Also, tossing reporters into flaming barrels of garbage will not be tolerated.

On September 8th, federal regulators determined Wells Fargo employees secretly created millions of unauthorized bank and credit card accounts.  These accounts were created to levy late-fees and other expenses against their customers to slowly siphon money into the banks coffers.

The company was fined $185 million dollars and CEO John Stumpf is expected to receive a stern talking to by the Senate Banking committee.

Kevin Pham expects “the bank’s army of high paid lawyers,” to protect the company’s top executives from receiving any real punishment.  Therefore he is urging customers to close their accounts, Wells Fargo employees to seek employment elsewhere, and Carrie Tolstedt to return a portion of her $125 million bonus.

Like any good activist, Mr. Pham also announced he is short the company’s stock (ticker: WFC).

You can follow any updates from National Close Your Account Day by clicking here and viewing the recent posts on the event’s Facebook timeline.

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