AFTERNOON TINDER

329 views

There certainly isn’t a lack of skepticism surrounding this rally. Extended as it may be, and though it should **cringe** let some air out (because it’s a bubble) IT IS NOT. Yet the slightest sighting of sell flow and shorts pile into the hole.

Then the door is shut and the walls squeeze together.

The rest my dearies, is history.

3 waves, a correction, and little VPOC wiggle and we go out at HOD. Someone fetch me a hogie.

Top pick—I am with RaginCajun GPRO

 

$AAPL WANTS $TSLA

407 views

Tesla shares are on a rally this morning on unconfirmed rumors Apple may be investing. There have been several people speculating Apple may be interested into entering the car market. Can you imagine the awkward coference rooms inside $GM, $F, and Chrysler if that type of alliance actually comes to fruition?

I love the thought of an outside thinker entering the auto market. After all, I live inside the fish tank with all these group-thinkers in Detroit and the water is nasty. I worked at Chrysler and spent most of my time riding a silly tricycle around their oversized tech center.

But even without Apple money, shares of Tesla will be demanded by the people. Ask any man of industry to define what success looks like and they will point to Elon Musk. In the world of app makers and wonderful intangible innovation, Telsa and Space X create the tangible future. And people want it.

 

The Sideways Correction

413 views

Nasdasq futures are about flat as we enter US trade. After printing a neutral day yesterday we spent most of the overnight session drifting higher. This drift took us just above yesterday’s MID to test the volume pocket just below 4450 before finding responsive sellers.

Those responsive sellers starting working ahead of the 8:30am data dump, which included CPI, Durable Goods, and Initial/Continuing Claims. Overall it was a balanced session with a slight upward drift on normal volume and slightly compressed, but normal range.

Also on the docket today is some Fed repo activity from 9:30-10am, at 10:30 natural gas storage stats, at 11am the Kansas City Fed MFG activity, and at 1pm Fed’s Lockhart is set to speak. We also have GDP stats out tomorrow pre-market.

Our last three day’s overlapping value are just like last week’s Monday-Wednesday. Last week it turned out to be a time-style correction before we legged higher Thursday and Friday. Coming into today, Thursday, we have essentially the same look—three days of overlap atop a rally. The nuance is yesterday’s neutral print.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap fill down to 4437.75. That opens the door to take out ONL 4435 and test the low of our 3-day balance 4427. I will look for responsive buyers to defend and trade up through the ONH 448.75 air pocket to 4450 to target a new swing high 4461

Hypo 2 buyers cannot defend 4427 then we continue lower to target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and stretch to 4413 then 4399.50.

Hypo 3 is we stick inside the 3 day balance and continue sideways between 4450 and 4430.

Levels can be seen below:

NQ_VP_02262015

Good Spot for Bulls To Start The Day

193 views

Oil is starting the day at an interesting price level. The current profile shows balance and potential excess lows as we come into the VAH of the prior structure.

Otherwise price can fall back into that value and potentially accelerate down through it.

Keep the prices levels in mind if you are managing any short term oil-type trades:

QM_MP_02262015

QM_VP_02262015

Tech and Energy Press Higher

386 views

You should read my morning blogs.  They are technical and obfuscated with a 20-30 word vernacular [which is a long overdue reference post]. It is dense and probably not your style, but a heaping dose of morning context is essential like a daily mountain of dark leafy greens.

I go out of my way to keep the morning oil look simple. Maybe start with that one.  If you’re the slightest bit involved in the energy trade, why not take 30 seconds to check out the key levels and context?

Today we printed a neutral day in the Nasdaq, hands down, my favorite market profile day-type. These days are the fascinating, ~20% occurrences. They bring added shock and flavor at or near extreme swing levels. When the second range extension is down and the higher time frame trend is up, it’s an invitation to buy your favorite momentum chart.

It is usually good for at least some order flow back to the mean on the Nasdaq, which you essentially use to lift your little momo boat a bit.

All these fun happenings, and more, have me in a gregarious mood. I suppose I will go walk through the tundra for a bit.

Nazzy Holding Its Water

296 views

Developing an intimate relationship with a traded instrument is an interesting exercise. This is especially the case in a slow market. Mentally the occurrences seem similar to the nonverbal cues you’re able to detect with your closest relationships, like a look your wife can give you or a small shift in posture.

Today for instance, featured some of the heaviest offer spoofing I have ever seen yet here we are, trading flat, after filling the overnight gap, despite the spoofing. The market is quiet. I didn’t even listen to Yellen today, wasn’t it essentially a repeat of yesterday?

Oil’s somewhat behaving.

Smooth.

Another Yellen Talk on Tap

277 views

Nasdaq futures drifted lower, down into the mid of yesterday on abnormally low volume and range. There seems to be little interest in conducting business during globex with the looming Yellen discussions and perhaps Friday’s GDP data on the horizon.

Today, as I mentioned above, Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying for a second day. Today she meets with the Financial Services Committee at 10am. We halso have month-over-month new home sales at 10am and oil/gas inventories at 10:30am.

The trend continued yesterday, intermediate term, where buyers are in control. The last few days have been buyer controlled. Yesterday we managed to briefly take out the prior session’s low 4429.75 before finding responsive buyers who took us to new swing high prices.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction in range to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4450.25. From there I will see if buyers can take out yesterday high 4455.75. Above there I will look for signs of responsive selling.

Hypo 2 is seller push down through yesterday’s VAL 4442 to probe yesterday’s session low. Look for responsive buyers around 4430.

Hypo 3 is drive down, take out 4430 and target 4422.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_02252015

Oil Compression

210 views

Oil prices are compressed at the MCVPOC. This structure suggests we are building energy for the next move. With inventory stats set for release at 10:30am, you can bet your bippy we will attempt a move away from this compression today.

With that in mind, check out the market profile value levels-useful references as today develops. And below the market profile picture, the big picture where the compression can be seen:

QM_MP_02252015 QM_VP_02540215

Janet Yellen is on FIRE

378 views

yellen_02242015

Janet Yellen is an awesome grandma-like figure. She possesses the ability to answer seemingly “yes or no” questions with 20 minute tales, just like any grandma recanting her trip to the grocery store. It crushes the q&a session where Senators each only have a few minutes. I wish someone would run a statistic on what % of each Senators time she was occupying with a monologue.  You know you can’t wiggle your way out of the grocery store conversation once you’ve made eye contact.

More on the topic of statistics–let’s discuss an interesting one. 93.44% of the time the initial balance, or the range of the first hour, breaks. That’s in either direction.  Of those breaks 62.97% are IB high [these are somewhat dated numbers]. Therefore, if through context and/or market structure you hypothesize the session low to be sound you have a statistical target to shoot for. Wrap some risk onto a long and work that stat.

The Nasdaq has taken IB high with relative ease six sessions in a row. It suggests an active intermediate term time frame is participating in the tape. And that makes sense, given the proximity to a multi-month-two-way market. The duration of the coil may contribute to the magnitude of the thrust.

My risk aversion side kicked in and I stopped out of TSLA this morning. I low-ticked it after it went gap down below my risk and then wedged lower. Literally 5 minutes after stopping out, I saw the lovely falling wedge picture. Even if I would have stopped out later in the session it made sense to hold through this point. I wavered decision-wise. Here’s the picture:

TSLA_02242015
Learn this look into the automatic computer bank of your memories. Keep your eyes peeled for one while listening to sweet tales of Better Years by Aunty Yellen.

Busy Tuesday Morning

397 views

The Nasdaq futures aren’t signaling we’re in store for a busy Tuesday, what with range and volume compressed well-below normal. But perhaps they are. Perhaps the volume and range are so abnormally low because everyone waits with bated breath to hear what The Fed Chair Yellen has to say both today and tomorrow. First she will talk with the US Senate at 10am. Atop this discussion we have Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed MFG at 10am.

For all intents and purposes, the market doesn’t open until 10am.

Overnights low range pushed back to the 50% mid of the afternoon ramp before finding responsive buyers. Yesterday we printed a normal variation day with a small range extension up. The most prominent feature of yesterday’s session was a late-afternoon push which traversed nearly the entire range to close us out near the high of the session.

Intermediate term the Nasdaq is trading up at swing highs after a multi-month neutral consolidation. This timeframe is bullish.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for balanced, 2-way chop. I will look for buyers to defend yesterday’s value area low 4436.25-35.25 and then make a push to test swing high 4449.25 and in particular the mezzo century figure 4450.

Hypo 2 is sellers accelerate down through yesterday’s VAL 4436.25-35.25 and push through yesterday’s low 4429.75. In this instance I will look for responsive buyers down at 4423-22.25 area. If they do not show then sellers will target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and perhaps overshoot down to 4413 LVN.

Hypo 3 is a strong push higher up through 4450 to continue the discovery process up.

Key levels can be seen below:

NQ_MPVP_02242015

AFTERNOON TINDER

329 views

There certainly isn’t a lack of skepticism surrounding this rally. Extended as it may be, and though it should **cringe** let some air out (because it’s a bubble) IT IS NOT. Yet the slightest sighting of sell flow and shorts pile into the hole.

Then the door is shut and the walls squeeze together.

The rest my dearies, is history.

3 waves, a correction, and little VPOC wiggle and we go out at HOD. Someone fetch me a hogie.

Top pick—I am with RaginCajun GPRO

 

$AAPL WANTS $TSLA

407 views

Tesla shares are on a rally this morning on unconfirmed rumors Apple may be investing. There have been several people speculating Apple may be interested into entering the car market. Can you imagine the awkward coference rooms inside $GM, $F, and Chrysler if that type of alliance actually comes to fruition?

I love the thought of an outside thinker entering the auto market. After all, I live inside the fish tank with all these group-thinkers in Detroit and the water is nasty. I worked at Chrysler and spent most of my time riding a silly tricycle around their oversized tech center.

But even without Apple money, shares of Tesla will be demanded by the people. Ask any man of industry to define what success looks like and they will point to Elon Musk. In the world of app makers and wonderful intangible innovation, Telsa and Space X create the tangible future. And people want it.

 

The Sideways Correction

413 views

Nasdasq futures are about flat as we enter US trade. After printing a neutral day yesterday we spent most of the overnight session drifting higher. This drift took us just above yesterday’s MID to test the volume pocket just below 4450 before finding responsive sellers.

Those responsive sellers starting working ahead of the 8:30am data dump, which included CPI, Durable Goods, and Initial/Continuing Claims. Overall it was a balanced session with a slight upward drift on normal volume and slightly compressed, but normal range.

Also on the docket today is some Fed repo activity from 9:30-10am, at 10:30 natural gas storage stats, at 11am the Kansas City Fed MFG activity, and at 1pm Fed’s Lockhart is set to speak. We also have GDP stats out tomorrow pre-market.

Our last three day’s overlapping value are just like last week’s Monday-Wednesday. Last week it turned out to be a time-style correction before we legged higher Thursday and Friday. Coming into today, Thursday, we have essentially the same look—three days of overlap atop a rally. The nuance is yesterday’s neutral print.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap fill down to 4437.75. That opens the door to take out ONL 4435 and test the low of our 3-day balance 4427. I will look for responsive buyers to defend and trade up through the ONH 448.75 air pocket to 4450 to target a new swing high 4461

Hypo 2 buyers cannot defend 4427 then we continue lower to target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and stretch to 4413 then 4399.50.

Hypo 3 is we stick inside the 3 day balance and continue sideways between 4450 and 4430.

Levels can be seen below:

NQ_VP_02262015

Good Spot for Bulls To Start The Day

193 views

Oil is starting the day at an interesting price level. The current profile shows balance and potential excess lows as we come into the VAH of the prior structure.

Otherwise price can fall back into that value and potentially accelerate down through it.

Keep the prices levels in mind if you are managing any short term oil-type trades:

QM_MP_02262015

QM_VP_02262015

Tech and Energy Press Higher

386 views

You should read my morning blogs.  They are technical and obfuscated with a 20-30 word vernacular [which is a long overdue reference post]. It is dense and probably not your style, but a heaping dose of morning context is essential like a daily mountain of dark leafy greens.

I go out of my way to keep the morning oil look simple. Maybe start with that one.  If you’re the slightest bit involved in the energy trade, why not take 30 seconds to check out the key levels and context?

Today we printed a neutral day in the Nasdaq, hands down, my favorite market profile day-type. These days are the fascinating, ~20% occurrences. They bring added shock and flavor at or near extreme swing levels. When the second range extension is down and the higher time frame trend is up, it’s an invitation to buy your favorite momentum chart.

It is usually good for at least some order flow back to the mean on the Nasdaq, which you essentially use to lift your little momo boat a bit.

All these fun happenings, and more, have me in a gregarious mood. I suppose I will go walk through the tundra for a bit.

Nazzy Holding Its Water

296 views

Developing an intimate relationship with a traded instrument is an interesting exercise. This is especially the case in a slow market. Mentally the occurrences seem similar to the nonverbal cues you’re able to detect with your closest relationships, like a look your wife can give you or a small shift in posture.

Today for instance, featured some of the heaviest offer spoofing I have ever seen yet here we are, trading flat, after filling the overnight gap, despite the spoofing. The market is quiet. I didn’t even listen to Yellen today, wasn’t it essentially a repeat of yesterday?

Oil’s somewhat behaving.

Smooth.

Another Yellen Talk on Tap

277 views

Nasdaq futures drifted lower, down into the mid of yesterday on abnormally low volume and range. There seems to be little interest in conducting business during globex with the looming Yellen discussions and perhaps Friday’s GDP data on the horizon.

Today, as I mentioned above, Fed Chair Yellen will be testifying for a second day. Today she meets with the Financial Services Committee at 10am. We halso have month-over-month new home sales at 10am and oil/gas inventories at 10:30am.

The trend continued yesterday, intermediate term, where buyers are in control. The last few days have been buyer controlled. Yesterday we managed to briefly take out the prior session’s low 4429.75 before finding responsive buyers who took us to new swing high prices.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction in range to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4450.25. From there I will see if buyers can take out yesterday high 4455.75. Above there I will look for signs of responsive selling.

Hypo 2 is seller push down through yesterday’s VAL 4442 to probe yesterday’s session low. Look for responsive buyers around 4430.

Hypo 3 is drive down, take out 4430 and target 4422.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_02252015

Oil Compression

210 views

Oil prices are compressed at the MCVPOC. This structure suggests we are building energy for the next move. With inventory stats set for release at 10:30am, you can bet your bippy we will attempt a move away from this compression today.

With that in mind, check out the market profile value levels-useful references as today develops. And below the market profile picture, the big picture where the compression can be seen:

QM_MP_02252015 QM_VP_02540215

Janet Yellen is on FIRE

378 views

yellen_02242015

Janet Yellen is an awesome grandma-like figure. She possesses the ability to answer seemingly “yes or no” questions with 20 minute tales, just like any grandma recanting her trip to the grocery store. It crushes the q&a session where Senators each only have a few minutes. I wish someone would run a statistic on what % of each Senators time she was occupying with a monologue.  You know you can’t wiggle your way out of the grocery store conversation once you’ve made eye contact.

More on the topic of statistics–let’s discuss an interesting one. 93.44% of the time the initial balance, or the range of the first hour, breaks. That’s in either direction.  Of those breaks 62.97% are IB high [these are somewhat dated numbers]. Therefore, if through context and/or market structure you hypothesize the session low to be sound you have a statistical target to shoot for. Wrap some risk onto a long and work that stat.

The Nasdaq has taken IB high with relative ease six sessions in a row. It suggests an active intermediate term time frame is participating in the tape. And that makes sense, given the proximity to a multi-month-two-way market. The duration of the coil may contribute to the magnitude of the thrust.

My risk aversion side kicked in and I stopped out of TSLA this morning. I low-ticked it after it went gap down below my risk and then wedged lower. Literally 5 minutes after stopping out, I saw the lovely falling wedge picture. Even if I would have stopped out later in the session it made sense to hold through this point. I wavered decision-wise. Here’s the picture:

TSLA_02242015
Learn this look into the automatic computer bank of your memories. Keep your eyes peeled for one while listening to sweet tales of Better Years by Aunty Yellen.

Busy Tuesday Morning

397 views

The Nasdaq futures aren’t signaling we’re in store for a busy Tuesday, what with range and volume compressed well-below normal. But perhaps they are. Perhaps the volume and range are so abnormally low because everyone waits with bated breath to hear what The Fed Chair Yellen has to say both today and tomorrow. First she will talk with the US Senate at 10am. Atop this discussion we have Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed MFG at 10am.

For all intents and purposes, the market doesn’t open until 10am.

Overnights low range pushed back to the 50% mid of the afternoon ramp before finding responsive buyers. Yesterday we printed a normal variation day with a small range extension up. The most prominent feature of yesterday’s session was a late-afternoon push which traversed nearly the entire range to close us out near the high of the session.

Intermediate term the Nasdaq is trading up at swing highs after a multi-month neutral consolidation. This timeframe is bullish.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for balanced, 2-way chop. I will look for buyers to defend yesterday’s value area low 4436.25-35.25 and then make a push to test swing high 4449.25 and in particular the mezzo century figure 4450.

Hypo 2 is sellers accelerate down through yesterday’s VAL 4436.25-35.25 and push through yesterday’s low 4429.75. In this instance I will look for responsive buyers down at 4423-22.25 area. If they do not show then sellers will target the NVPOC at 4417.75 and perhaps overshoot down to 4413 LVN.

Hypo 3 is a strong push higher up through 4450 to continue the discovery process up.

Key levels can be seen below:

NQ_MPVP_02242015

Previous Posts by Raul3
Dow 20 Days
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