The Gods Are Present

70 views

Ultra_mega_chicken

The turkey gods have made their presence known, today to all of you, via indigenous thrusts at the vital organs of the short sellers. It is a most violent sight to see in real time, one piece after another being squeezed by the cold vise grab of the fowl claw.

GOOGL, BABA, LNKD, CREE, DDD, YELP, Z, FEYE …the fire stocks. The coveted cracked cocaine of the performance chasers.

Those who managed to wrap some risk onto these devious stud stocks are now in a position to rain moneys down on the retailers come Black Friday and its crooked nephew Cyber Monday. Those on the sidelines, rattled by the back-and-forth of seasonality and macro obfuscations must chase as if their animal life depended on it.

Who do you want to be, the chaser, or the The Birdman?

RAUL BUY: $UGAZ

108 views

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Buyers Firming Up into The Week

101 views

Nasdaq futures are higher as we enter the week on a tight Globex range grind up. Volumes are a little light but still in the realm of normal so far. German business climate numbers gave a boost to markets overnight and Asian stocks saw a strong rally as well. Just after the open today we have Markit PMI stats at 9:45am and this evening the Bank of Japan will release minutes from their October 31st meeting, the stimulus meeting.

Before the market opens Tuesday the US Q3 GDP data will be released as we as several other key economic statistics.

Price are set to open inside of Friday’s price range, above the mid of the slow-fade session. Friday showed signs of excess after going gap up to a new highs and finding sellers. It will be interesting today if sellers can build on their reaction or instead back off. The shortened holiday week might favor the longer term uptrend, however Friday’s auction activity is worth keeping in mind as we head into the week.

The double low that had me concerned last week is out of range unless we saw an abnormal selling-type day and the overall context is balanced. My primary expectation is for sellers to push into this overnight inventory, churn about Friday’s VPOC at 4252.25 before ultimately closing the overnight gap to 4249.25 and testing the overnight low at 4248. I will be looking for signs of responsive buyers just below the overnight lows. Sellers may target the HVN at 4242.

I have highlighted these levels and observations on the following volume profile chart:

11242014_NQ_VP

Useless Up Day

162 views

Listen, the market is stretched and then we went gap up big into OPEX. That event was just as risky to the financial complex as a big down gap after weeks of trading one-direction lower. Literally billions of premium that was hard earned by market makers was at risk of being blown to bits.

This simply cannot happen.

The market can rally next week, when all of that option leverage is good and dead. Will it? Without looking I cannot say. Next week is short, I am long, and the turkey gods are on the horizon.

The Chinese eased their lending rate a bit this morning. The Chinese love LED lighting, love it. This was why I had to pull the trigger on CREE. I know PHG is the king of LED lighting, but the lighting industry is a funny place inhabited by even funnier people. CREE is a bigger Nasdaq 100 component then traders give it credit for, and has been dead money for nearly a year and a half—literally a year and a half without a sustained rally. It is a pure LED play while Phillips still sells a little of everything.

It only takes a little bit of leverage applied to the right spot to loosen a boulder of profits. They cannot all be SUNEs, but if you put 1-2 of those bad boys in your book while managing your risk on everything else then you’re cruising.

I intend to pour everything I have into this second Weekly Strategy Session. Let’s plan out the turkey week to put us in the favour of the turkey gods. ARISE!

That Guy Buying All Time Highs

245 views

Do not be the guy buying the market at all times highs. Sure, you have banked hefty sums of coin this week on the backs of central bankers and dead shorts. But is that any reason to go all in up here? Why put all your hard earned coins in risks way?

I am a slightly different animal. My earnings this week are ‘big dicked’ [No SCOK] and I have thus earned the right to allocate some risk.

This morning I sold off my TZA hedge [adieu, my comforting friend] and started positions across the marquee risk complex via DDD, YELP, and CREE.

These moves are certainly not for the faint of heart, and have been implemented at smaller-than-normal size due to the elevated nature of the tape. Nevertheless, I intend to position my book where I see opportunity. Let us hope I am not viewing matters through rose colored sunglasses.

China Drops an OPEX Surprise

117 views

Today is option expiration day for many stock options, and although we live in the age of weekly expiration dated options, the original third Friday expiration carries a bit more weight. Just before 6am we received unexpected news from the East where the Chinese Central Bank cut deposit rates by 40 basis points. This news fueled a rally in the Nasdaq globex session which is currently printing a range in excess of the 1st standard deviation of normal on volume to the same degree. In short, this is an outlier overnight session verse 68.8% of overnight sessions over the last five years.

The price action has us set to gap to new swing highs on the index suggesting the market will be out of balance come opening bell. This can lead to big moves. Leading into today was yesterday’s session which had the look of a short trap. Prices went gap lower and took out Wednesday’s low only to sharply reverse early on and squeeze shorts. The overall look of the profile suggests a short-squeeze event occurred leading into today.

Auction theory is not quite as effective at new highs, however I have listed the support levels I will be observing on the following volume profile chart:

11222014_NQ_VP

Addicted To This Lifestyle

162 views

This evening I strolled down the snow covered walks of my neighborhood and soaked it all in. The automobile artery in the distance had the glow of gridlock traffic but was just far enough for the winter blanket to silence their sound. Instead I was left to hear my own thoughts.

I used to be a member of the rush hour traffic society. A member to a devote network of Waze users colluding to outsmart the traffic jams. No matter how I obfuscated the route the duration would be no less than two hours. It was nonsense, no way for a human to live.

Now my network is hardened speculators, our task is banking coin, and the duration is of no matter because I love every brute second of it.

Let’s close this year out like a bunch of badasses.

All About The Blank Space

132 views

If I can make 1-2 good trades in the Nasdaq then I get to spend the rest of my day as I please. The key is, and this is because I am still developing, shutting the machine gun down and entertaining myself elsewhere.

You will often see me giving traders a risk reminder after they experience an outsized win. That is because I have churned away enough outsized wins by getting inside my head than most people my tender age. I love referring to my age as tender. Doesn’t that make you a bit uncomfortable?

Anyhow, there was a piece of context I will trade every time it presents itself until my eyeballs burn out of my skull, it’s a slip zone. Wrap some risk, grab the wheel, execute. I am going to make a career out of these things.

I put a side bet on GOOGL YOLO whilst we ran up the zipper, to keep me entertained.  It will likely lose.

Surrounded By Weakness

133 views

Prices moved lower in the Nasdaq overnight and as we approach US trade the market is hovering inside the lower quadrant of yesterday’s range. At 8:30am traders learned about the CPI and Jobs situation in the United States, and all numbers but one were better than expected. Initial Jobless Claims came in a bit higher than expected. After the open we have Markit PMI at 9:45am and both Existing Home Sales and Philadelphia Fed at 10am.

The futures broke loose to the downside just after 3am and since then the overnight profile has taken on a b-shape suggesting the initial wave might have been of the long liquidation variety.  It also exposes a slip-zone up to 4217.50. You can see the overnight profile below: 11212014_NQ_ONMP

At our current prices, the weak low at 4207 is now in range. This is a piece of context that formed on Monday when the market printed a double bottom on this tick. That is a poor low and carries an expectation of resolution. The swing high also looks weak but is nearly out of range statistically. The net result is a neutral stance which leads me to expect choppy trade. This is unless we see a strong driver off the open like we saw the past two days. I have highlighted the key price levels I will be observing as well as the weak high/low observations on the following volume profile chart:

11212014_NQ_VP

The Gods Are Present

70 views

Ultra_mega_chicken

The turkey gods have made their presence known, today to all of you, via indigenous thrusts at the vital organs of the short sellers. It is a most violent sight to see in real time, one piece after another being squeezed by the cold vise grab of the fowl claw.

GOOGL, BABA, LNKD, CREE, DDD, YELP, Z, FEYE …the fire stocks. The coveted cracked cocaine of the performance chasers.

Those who managed to wrap some risk onto these devious stud stocks are now in a position to rain moneys down on the retailers come Black Friday and its crooked nephew Cyber Monday. Those on the sidelines, rattled by the back-and-forth of seasonality and macro obfuscations must chase as if their animal life depended on it.

Who do you want to be, the chaser, or the The Birdman?

RAUL BUY: $UGAZ

108 views

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Buyers Firming Up into The Week

101 views

Nasdaq futures are higher as we enter the week on a tight Globex range grind up. Volumes are a little light but still in the realm of normal so far. German business climate numbers gave a boost to markets overnight and Asian stocks saw a strong rally as well. Just after the open today we have Markit PMI stats at 9:45am and this evening the Bank of Japan will release minutes from their October 31st meeting, the stimulus meeting.

Before the market opens Tuesday the US Q3 GDP data will be released as we as several other key economic statistics.

Price are set to open inside of Friday’s price range, above the mid of the slow-fade session. Friday showed signs of excess after going gap up to a new highs and finding sellers. It will be interesting today if sellers can build on their reaction or instead back off. The shortened holiday week might favor the longer term uptrend, however Friday’s auction activity is worth keeping in mind as we head into the week.

The double low that had me concerned last week is out of range unless we saw an abnormal selling-type day and the overall context is balanced. My primary expectation is for sellers to push into this overnight inventory, churn about Friday’s VPOC at 4252.25 before ultimately closing the overnight gap to 4249.25 and testing the overnight low at 4248. I will be looking for signs of responsive buyers just below the overnight lows. Sellers may target the HVN at 4242.

I have highlighted these levels and observations on the following volume profile chart:

11242014_NQ_VP

Useless Up Day

162 views

Listen, the market is stretched and then we went gap up big into OPEX. That event was just as risky to the financial complex as a big down gap after weeks of trading one-direction lower. Literally billions of premium that was hard earned by market makers was at risk of being blown to bits.

This simply cannot happen.

The market can rally next week, when all of that option leverage is good and dead. Will it? Without looking I cannot say. Next week is short, I am long, and the turkey gods are on the horizon.

The Chinese eased their lending rate a bit this morning. The Chinese love LED lighting, love it. This was why I had to pull the trigger on CREE. I know PHG is the king of LED lighting, but the lighting industry is a funny place inhabited by even funnier people. CREE is a bigger Nasdaq 100 component then traders give it credit for, and has been dead money for nearly a year and a half—literally a year and a half without a sustained rally. It is a pure LED play while Phillips still sells a little of everything.

It only takes a little bit of leverage applied to the right spot to loosen a boulder of profits. They cannot all be SUNEs, but if you put 1-2 of those bad boys in your book while managing your risk on everything else then you’re cruising.

I intend to pour everything I have into this second Weekly Strategy Session. Let’s plan out the turkey week to put us in the favour of the turkey gods. ARISE!

That Guy Buying All Time Highs

245 views

Do not be the guy buying the market at all times highs. Sure, you have banked hefty sums of coin this week on the backs of central bankers and dead shorts. But is that any reason to go all in up here? Why put all your hard earned coins in risks way?

I am a slightly different animal. My earnings this week are ‘big dicked’ [No SCOK] and I have thus earned the right to allocate some risk.

This morning I sold off my TZA hedge [adieu, my comforting friend] and started positions across the marquee risk complex via DDD, YELP, and CREE.

These moves are certainly not for the faint of heart, and have been implemented at smaller-than-normal size due to the elevated nature of the tape. Nevertheless, I intend to position my book where I see opportunity. Let us hope I am not viewing matters through rose colored sunglasses.

China Drops an OPEX Surprise

117 views

Today is option expiration day for many stock options, and although we live in the age of weekly expiration dated options, the original third Friday expiration carries a bit more weight. Just before 6am we received unexpected news from the East where the Chinese Central Bank cut deposit rates by 40 basis points. This news fueled a rally in the Nasdaq globex session which is currently printing a range in excess of the 1st standard deviation of normal on volume to the same degree. In short, this is an outlier overnight session verse 68.8% of overnight sessions over the last five years.

The price action has us set to gap to new swing highs on the index suggesting the market will be out of balance come opening bell. This can lead to big moves. Leading into today was yesterday’s session which had the look of a short trap. Prices went gap lower and took out Wednesday’s low only to sharply reverse early on and squeeze shorts. The overall look of the profile suggests a short-squeeze event occurred leading into today.

Auction theory is not quite as effective at new highs, however I have listed the support levels I will be observing on the following volume profile chart:

11222014_NQ_VP

Addicted To This Lifestyle

162 views

This evening I strolled down the snow covered walks of my neighborhood and soaked it all in. The automobile artery in the distance had the glow of gridlock traffic but was just far enough for the winter blanket to silence their sound. Instead I was left to hear my own thoughts.

I used to be a member of the rush hour traffic society. A member to a devote network of Waze users colluding to outsmart the traffic jams. No matter how I obfuscated the route the duration would be no less than two hours. It was nonsense, no way for a human to live.

Now my network is hardened speculators, our task is banking coin, and the duration is of no matter because I love every brute second of it.

Let’s close this year out like a bunch of badasses.

All About The Blank Space

132 views

If I can make 1-2 good trades in the Nasdaq then I get to spend the rest of my day as I please. The key is, and this is because I am still developing, shutting the machine gun down and entertaining myself elsewhere.

You will often see me giving traders a risk reminder after they experience an outsized win. That is because I have churned away enough outsized wins by getting inside my head than most people my tender age. I love referring to my age as tender. Doesn’t that make you a bit uncomfortable?

Anyhow, there was a piece of context I will trade every time it presents itself until my eyeballs burn out of my skull, it’s a slip zone. Wrap some risk, grab the wheel, execute. I am going to make a career out of these things.

I put a side bet on GOOGL YOLO whilst we ran up the zipper, to keep me entertained.  It will likely lose.

Surrounded By Weakness

133 views

Prices moved lower in the Nasdaq overnight and as we approach US trade the market is hovering inside the lower quadrant of yesterday’s range. At 8:30am traders learned about the CPI and Jobs situation in the United States, and all numbers but one were better than expected. Initial Jobless Claims came in a bit higher than expected. After the open we have Markit PMI at 9:45am and both Existing Home Sales and Philadelphia Fed at 10am.

The futures broke loose to the downside just after 3am and since then the overnight profile has taken on a b-shape suggesting the initial wave might have been of the long liquidation variety.  It also exposes a slip-zone up to 4217.50. You can see the overnight profile below: 11212014_NQ_ONMP

At our current prices, the weak low at 4207 is now in range. This is a piece of context that formed on Monday when the market printed a double bottom on this tick. That is a poor low and carries an expectation of resolution. The swing high also looks weak but is nearly out of range statistically. The net result is a neutral stance which leads me to expect choppy trade. This is unless we see a strong driver off the open like we saw the past two days. I have highlighted the key price levels I will be observing as well as the weak high/low observations on the following volume profile chart:

11212014_NQ_VP

Previous Posts by Raul3
You Are Weak
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