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I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

NASDAQ gap down in range ;-) here is the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range. Price worked lower overnight, trading down through the Tuesday low and down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range before discovering a bid.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the lower quad of yesterday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell speaking to congress at 11am followed by a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a slight gap up and drive higher, trading up to 8300 before settling into a tight range.  Then, around 2:15pm New York sellers made a hard move lower, making a new low of day and pushing us neutral.  Then buyers ramped price back to the midpoint by day-end.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8271.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 8275.50.  This sets up a move to probe beyond Tuesday high 8300.25.  Look for sellers up at 8336 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap 8271.75 then stall just above overnight high 8275.50 and balance out.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 8220 setting up a move to target 8200.  Look for buyers down at 8187.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Trump to speak in the epicenter of capitalism at 1pm, here is the NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was choppy overnight, dropping back to the Monday midpoint before rotating up through the Monday high.  We did not take out all-time highs but we came close to it.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Monday high.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 12:30pm.  Also President Donald Trump is set talk trade policy at the New York economic club at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down inside range.  After some initial selling took out overnight low responsive buyers stepped in and began working the gap fill.  The rest of the session featured a slow ascent higher, with the day ending just a few point shy of the gap fill.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 8274 setting up a move to tag 8300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8228.50, look for buyers down at 8200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 8336 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Wall Street is open for business, here is the Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume.  Price worked lower overnight, making one slow, uni-directional downward move throughout the Globex session.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below last Friday’s midpoint.

There are no economic events scheduled for today, possibly because it is Armistice Day.

Last week began with a gap up and sideways drift through late Tuesday.  Then sellers pressed late Tuesday and into Wednesday before discovering a responsive bid.  Buyers then auctioned price higher through Thursday afternoon before we balanced out into the weekend.  The Russell lagged throughout the week.  Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The da began with a gap down that buyers quickly resolved with an open drive up.  Sellers then pushed down through the Thursday low before forming a sharp excess low.  The rest of the day was spent auctioning higher, including a strong ramp near end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8256.25.  From here we continue higher, taking out overnight high 8264.25.  Look for a tag of the naked Thursday VPOC at 8267.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8213.75 setting up a move to target 8200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 8187.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Not applying pressure to my strategy—just cruising

Not much to say.

Sunday research is complete.  I like that Walmart reports before market open.  There are only a handful of stocks that anyone should bother paying attention to, and even fewer that anyone should own.  For the most part, the tickers worth owning come from the west—names like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, maybe Twitter.  You always have to wait until after-market-close to trade these earnings announcements.  But Walmart, which is just as worthy of tracking and owning as the above, they report in the morning.  Like a chicken and bread eating American they are on the road early, commuting to their work, at their work station by 7am sorting boxes and clicking buttons.  I dig that.  Walmart reports Thursday morning then Nvidia reports Thursday afternoon.  Thursday is likely to be pivotal.  Sure, Fed Chairman Jay Powell speaking Wednesday afternoon is likely to cause some rotations, but the Fed has proven predictable.  Walmart tells the story of America’s economy (and therefore the world’s economy) better than any silly government statistic.  Certainly more relevant than GDP.

As we continue to transition to decentralized currencies like bitcoin, government stats will become less-and-less relevant, much like the various stations of the government have already become.

Anyhow enough of that.  As I highlighted in the strategy session the NASDAQ transportation index is really pressing up into the upper boundary of its multi-year price range.  This key contextual sub index is likely to tell a story about the overall stock market soon and you should have at least 1/5th of your computer screens dedicated to monitoring this instrument.

You really don’t need anything else.  We are at all-time record high stock prices lads.  These are casual times where advisors are gods, optimists are right again and active trading is less lucrative than when we’re in the thick of the auction.  Behave accordingly.

Raul Santos, November 10th, 2019

Exodus members, the 260th edition of Strategy Session is live.  Be sure to read the notes about the NASDAQ Transportation index, at a minimum. Cheers.

 

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Fell out of touch mid week—daylight savings time, man

I am not one for excuses, especially when it is 7am and a cement truck is about to arrive.  Because at that point the only option is to more work on me.  Grieving over daylight savings is a popular plebeian pastime (PPP).  But by-golly my sleep schedule is out-of-whack, and with my circadian rhythms off I figured it was best I withdrew myself from the NASDAQ 100 arena.

This is the benefit of being time rich and independent.  Nobody can tell me I have to work.  I love to work, and sometimes I work too hardt.  This has not been a work-too-hardt week.  First off it has become quite cold in the murder mitten.

And I welcome the cold.  As any faithful reader of the old Raul blog knows, my primary objective is to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex and use said dollars to acquire land as far north and at as high an altitude as my constitution will allow.  Then to build.  I come from a long line of builders and soldiers.  We build and we fight and we fuck and we farm.  Additional fiat american extractions will be converted into quonset huts and water-heated cement pads.  Greenhouses and solar panels and lithium-ion batteries.

So I am big on conditioning my mind and this sack of fluid my soul occupies to handle the cold.  Right now the inside temperature of Mothership is a brisk 52 degrees Fahrenheit. I am wearing finger-less wool gloves, shorts and a Nike heatgear tee shirt that is designed to wick any moisture off my body. This shirt keeps me from suffering from any sweat chills.  I am barefoot like Honest Cato, of course.  The only heat sources are a fire near by bed which I’ve kept lit this entire week, the flame below my soup stock pot and the the human mammal heat I generate via frequent jumping jacks and other calisthenic exercises.

What most millennials (and boomers) fail to understand is that the only escape from normalcy is to BE different.  I choose to remove as many modern creature comforts as possible, instead focusing on stocking my coffers with homegrown jellies, gathering wood and foraging for food and stuff to sell on Craiglist like a beautiful trash panda.

Some would see a man such as myself, who hasn’t left the house in days and say, “That fucker has no ambition.  Look at him, poking that stupid fire and reading books all day.”  Little do they know I am constantly plotting, waiting, ready to strike with merciless tenacity when the right opportunity presents itself.

And it is nearly showtime.  Or at the least, nearly snowtime.  And humble Raul thrives in the winter.

Plus the stock market is just prancing around up here at record highs.  There is not much for me to do.  I will not simply work for the sake of work, I know better than to do something for the sake of curing boredom or “appearing” productive.  What matters most is the health of my mind and body, otherwise I will be in no condition to help the people around me.  Work for the sake of work is not only a waste of time, but when it comes to trading it is a recipe for disaster.  I have seen 20 year professional traders, legends amongst our ranks, drift away from their plans and suffer major losses during slow tapes.

None of us are immune.  The best we can do is feel in-touch with our ourselves, prepare all our research, then trade our plan.  In doing this we can be liberated from the monotony of W-2 employment.  But what the heck am I going on about?  Every time I preach this line of trading to a room full of people they just want to fire tickers at me, or talk about how profound seasonality is or talk big shit about their five thousand dollar in-the-money call option position in Apple.  So I am done.  Do whatever you want.  I am off to do some dead lifts.

I will be back Sunday with an update on these super strong markets.

Good day and cheers to your weekend.

Raul Santos, November 8th, 2019

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Balancing along the highs, NASDAQ drifting into Tuesday, here is the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, making a new record high before finding sellers just ahead of 8250 and coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Monday high.

On the economic calendar today we have trade balance at 9:30am, ISM non-manufacturing/services PMI at 11am, 52-week T-bill auction at 12:30pm then a 3-year note auction at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs.  After a two-way auction sellers stepped in and slowly worked price lower.  Their campaign ended around 12:15pm New York lunch when buyers stepped in and rotated price back up and through the daily midpoint.  We oscillated back into the lower quadrant once more, not making making new lows before returning to the midpoint by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8215.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 8206.  Look for buyers ahead of 8200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down into the weekend gap and fill the gap down to 8159.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher trading up through overnight high 8248 and probing open air.  Look for sellers up at 8300 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ pops up a quick +60 into Monday, here is the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro-gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price drove higher overnight, discovering higher record prices throughout the globex session.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above 8200 up at record high prices.

On the economic calendar today we have durable/factory goods orders at 11 am followed by 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 12:30pm.

Last week also kicked off with a gap up Monday.  Then Monday featured a slow grind higher all session until settlement, when price spiked lower and erased most of the intra-day gains.  Tuesday saw sellers continuing to pressure the tape, eventually climaxing with a sharp move lower Wednesday morning.  This formed an excess low, closed the Monday gap and served as the low-of-week going forward.  After making time for several hours Wednesday the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis point as was expected, this introduced buying into the market.  Thursday was choppy before Friday saw price work to new highs.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher.  Sellers stepped in before the market could establish an early range extension up and sellers pressed RE down.  They were unable however to reclaim the Thursday range.  Instead buyers stepped in and worked price back up through the daily midpoint.  Then, late in the session buyers worked us to a new high-of-day (neutral) and closed out the session on the highs (neutral extreme).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to close the gap at 8159.25 and take overnight low out by a few ticks 8158.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher trading up to 8246.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8246.75 setting up a continued discovery of open air above.  Look for resistance at 8250 and 8300.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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I worked late Friday

As a rule of thumb, and folks I have massive thumbs, my hands were passed down from the old country. GRANDPA RAUL was a soldier for the fascist Mussolini regime.  He spent seven years as a prisoner-of-war in Africa before returning to Italy and adding five children to the three he’d had before the war, one of those children being Elder Raul.  As a rule of thumb I do not trade late into the Friday session because there is no sense in sullying the mind before two days of market-free rest.  A big loss late in the day Friday can distract nearly 48 hours of family time and philosophical study, and it just isn’t worth taking that risk for another seven or eight hundred fiat American dollars.  But I worked late Friday because I had a reason to stick around and trade:

Exodus also aligned with my late-Friday buy campaign:

This is a big problem with losing “traders” —they take action for the sake of action because they are trying to fill some existential void in their life with purpose, unaware that by carelessly trading financial instruments in an attempt to fill that void they are likely to blow an even wider chasm in their soul as their suffering and losing drives the people they love away from them.  Then, in isolation, these failed traders turn their self-pitying into blaming society, the democrats, women too smart/attractive to engage, Big Tech and more as an excuse for their failure.  This destructive loop continues, ad nauseam, until they either snap out of it and make a determined effort to rebuild the software inside their minds or they give up and return to being a W-2 wage slave, being told what to do like a dog because they are incapable of catching their own bounty like a wolf.

Anyways, if you are reading the old Raul blog you likely identify far more as a they/them wolf then a dog.  I worked late Friday because I had a reason to and while it is bad form to talk about winning trades I’ll just say it was a pretty sweet Friday.

MOVING ON.

Most of the firms relevant to the NASDAQ 100 have already reported.  The Fed has already cut interest rates.  It’s already November.  The algos are still bullish.  This run on the highs is long-in-tooth but that is no reason to assume it is about to roll over.  It might, but as I discussed in this Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session, always trying to be on the ‘right’ side of the market’s oscillations is unrealistic.  YES, we have been on both sides of all the last several major market rotations inside Strategy Session, but that is not always going to be the case and to think it will be is foolish.  If you want to be a fool there is a whole finance site dedicated to being a fool.  There are also books called “Idiots Guide To…” that are perhaps better suited for people who view themselves this way.  We do not view ourselves this way.

We are astute speculators, fully accepting our fate.  We live by the sword.  We know the inherent risk of our craft and we do our absolute best to mitigate those risks.  Then we show up every day with a plan and we trade that plan and let the results of these activities happen.  Trading like this can be a tool for building our character at all times, regardless of the outcome.  Or it can be an accelerated route to becoming a degenerate.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH.

Raul Santos, November 3rd, 2019.

Exodus members, the 259th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

 

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Bull victory lap continues after huge payroll beat, here is the Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price worked higher overnight, trading  up through the Thursday high just before midnight New York before settling into balance above Thursday’s midpoint.  Then at 8:30am Non-farm payroll data came out well above expectations and sent price on a spike higher to a new overnight high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just about 20 points below all-time record NASDAQ highs.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began flat, and the open featured a selling drive down.  Sellers traded down and tagged the naked VPOC left behind Wednesday before we formed a sharp excess low.  We then bounced back up and through the midpoint before chop ensued, chopping along the bottom-side of the mid before a late-day ramp took price back up above the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through record high 8141 to tag 8150 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8089.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 8084.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Halloween victory lap, Facebook and Apple propel NASDAQ higher, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, chopping along the top-side of Wednesday highs for most of the Globex session before rotating back into Wednesday range.  From there onward we held balance in the upper quadrant.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Wednesday high.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

All important earnings for the week are out after Apple and Facebook appeased investors with strong earnings. Big Tech continues to drive broad market action:

Apple Q4 EPS $3.03  Vs $2.91  Last Year 
Apple Sees Q1 Sales $85.5B-$89.5B vs $86.92B Est. 

Facebook Q3 EPS $2.12 Beats $1.91 Estimate, Sales $17.38B Beat $17.36B Estimate

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution up.  The day began with a gap up in range that sellers worked down into during an open drive down.  The selling accelerated into the weekend gap, filling the gap before forming a sharp excess low.  Price then reclaimed the midpoint and chopped sideways all over it before the Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate by 25 basis points.  The initial reaction to this was mute, but eventually third reaction was up and we worked up to 8100 before chopping into the bell.  During settlement the earnings mentioned above spiked price to a new daily high but did not take out all-time high before cash close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 8141.  Look for sellers up at 8150 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8081.50 setting up a move to target 8069.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8050 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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