Friday, July 1, 2016
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Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

iBankCoin Research Claims Flawless Victory Over June

flawless

Much like a no-hitter, you do not talk about a no-hitter, mid no-hitter.  That is grounds for a jinx.

However, now that June is complete, let me be the first to report the bludgeoning put on the marketplace by the Strategy Session.  Let’s recap the Executive Summaries, shall we?

HEADING INTO JUNE:

Look for price to continue working higher across all major indices.  Keep an eye on the lagging Dow Jones, and whether it plays catch up or attempts to lead us lower.  Look for Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll data to provide market direction into the weekend and into the month of June.

Note: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day.  For a full schedule on all trading products, click here.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses triggered, but extreme reading suggests calm upward drift. See Section IV

Calm upward drift, you say?  That about explained week one of June:

june-week1-2016

Sure RAUL, everyone knows the first week of a month tends to drift/be bullish.  What’s your next trick?

We came into Week Two ready for battle:

Look for bulls to attempt higher prices early in the week.  Janet Yellen speaks Monday and may try to talk up the likelihood of a summer interest rate hike.

Expect price to roll and head lower as early as Monday afternoon.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

june-week2-2016

Cool BRO, your research was RIGHT great job, but did you even trade it? LOLZ

I post all model-based trades inside Exodus, note the dates:

june-week2-2016-trades

I don’t always flip from long-to-short, but when I do it’s powered by my cultivated edge.

Week 3:

Look for markets to explore lower prices early this week.  While the volatility may uptick slightly, expect downside to be limited to the range printed on 05/24 [trend day up].

Look for the reaction post Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC rate decision to drive market direction into end-of-week.

* Rose Colored Sunglasses Bearish Signal triggered, See Section IV

No comment.  The SQQQ was in place, riding the liquidation drop lower:

june-week3-2016

Week 4:

Things became a bit confusing, because Bunker Buster looks for a fast move lower that you can buy:

The week has little by the way of economic events.  There are several T-Bill and Treasury Note auction this week however.  Keep an eye on the demand for the U.S. paper as it will continue to tell us about investor’s faith in central banks.

Look for a fast move lower early in the week, perhaps even a major gap down Monday morning.  Overall a fast downside move leads to a tradable low as investors react and buy lower prices.

* Bunker Buster long signal triggered, See Section IV

We started the week with a huge gap up after bookmakers in England swayed perception over Brexit.  Price action deviated from the Executive Summary.  My interest in BREXIT increased at this point, because it was jeopardizing my no-hitter.  Thanks to the ardent reporting of iBankCoin, I had a strong feeling the people of the United Kingdom would make the right choice and vote themselves out of the failing European Union.  I stuck with my shorts all week.  The result:

june-week4-2016

PAYDIRT.  These events transpired while I was living in a van, at an electronic music festival.  My phone exploded with calls, pandemonium ensued and I was short the market.  I offered tobacco to the sacred Giving Tree and held my shorts through the weekend.

Then, knowing I had a no-hitter on the line, I abandoned the music festival before all the headliners, including Griz, who is changing music for the better.

It was down to the last two innings, WEEK 5, BEHOLD:

Expect some weakness to carry through into Monday morning, perhaps a fast move lower off the open.

Then, look for a strong bid to enter the market and provide us a tradable low through month-end and Independence Day weekend.

At this point I closed my shorts for over a 20% gain and flipped long, last Monday, full of SHOMP and vigor:

june-week5-2016-trades

This week played out to perfection, and I remain long TQQQ, for the win, for the glory, GOD BLESS AMERICA:

june-week5-2016

Consider this my victory lap but also a sincere thank you.  Thank you so much to everyone who reads along, interacts, and provides feedback on my work.  I’d like to give a special thanks to the benevolent Le Fly (as he is known in France) for building an incredible analytics platform and also a proper media outlet.  I appreciate all the iBC crew and readers and members.  It is truly humbling to have a small voice among you.

I hope you enjoy Independence Day.  We live in the best country in the world, and I hope you find time to relax and refresh yourselves.

Everything I do inside Exodus, plus all the tweeting, snapping, and blogging is geared so you can understand the traits that will elevate your game and give YOU an edge in the marketplace.  Perhaps you can also avoid some of the pitfalls I’ve encountered, and continue to encounter along the way.  Let’s continue to learn our vocation with childlike curiosity and burning passion.

 

 

 

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NASDAQ Market Balanced Heading into July

balancedpowers

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher and 1-ticked Thursday’s high before settling above its midpoint.

The only two economic events today are ISM Manufacturing at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  It was the 3’rd consecutive up day, a unilateral occurrence that elevates the probability of a down day today.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to continue working the market higher, up to the MCVPOC at 4425.  Look for responsive sellers here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push lower, down through overnight low 4386.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4377 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push a bit higher, up to 4440.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down through 4377 and sustains trade below it setting up a move down to 4367.  Stretch downside target is 4350.

Levels:
07012016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07012016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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U.S. Markets Continue To Drift Higher; ID4 Holiday Approaching

Danny McBride as Kenny Powers

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after a balanced overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price extended upon Wednesday’s rally a bit before settling into two-way trade above yesterday’s midpoint.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed [initial claims 268k vs 267exp, continuing claims 2120k vs 2152k exp].  The initial reaction is a small buy.

Yesterday we printed a second-consecutive double distribution trend up.  This day type is not as explosive as a trend day, but does see a market that is discovering higher prices.  Price managed to test above last Friday’s high and sustain trade above it heading into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4362.75.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4380 and target the open gap at 4395.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down off the open and take out overnight low 4388.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4328.25, secondary support down at 4324, before two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold, we press down through 4322 and sustain trade below it, setting up a gap fill trade down to 4281.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

06302016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06302016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

 

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‘Reflex Rally’ Extends into Midweek; Volatility Remains Elevated

doc-eve

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked up for most of the session and stalled out just below last Friday’s midpoint.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications printed a slight negative read and at 8:30am Personal Consumption Expenditure came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am and Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  There was a strong open drive higher atop the pro-gap up.  Most of the day was spent consolidating the move along the daily mid before a second continuation wave pushed in, closing the market near session high and reclaiming last Friday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open up to 4328.25 before finding responsive sellers and settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4281.25.  Look for a continued move lower to take out overnight low 4268.25 then responsive buyers just below here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers push a bit higher, up to 4341.25 before settling into two way trade.

Hypo 4 volatility compresses and we chop range, from about 4290 – 4320.

Levels:

06292016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06292016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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U.S.A. Stock Markets Thrust Positive on The Week

kenP_thrust

Heading into the final hour of trade, major indices are back positive on the week.  The move began around 2:30pm after markets spent most of the day consolidating the gains achieved overnight.

Yesterday’s low looks decent, in terms of structure.  The NASDAQ printed a mini failed auction late-Monday afternoon and the low held through globex [unlike current swing high, which printed after-hours, suspect].

We are likely to see some of this move fade off, given the S&P and Dow are both neutral on the day.  However, and this is of note, the best index for bulls is the mighty NASDAQ–a market free of financials, the burden of banks, the sour grapes sure to rot as the reality of Brexit ages and cures.

There is nothing overtly bullish about the world right now, however there is something bullish about America–we’re not in the European Union, nor shall we ever be a part of the failing state.  Oh yeah, and we’re about to celebrate our Independence via blowing shit up and drinking PBRs on docks and boats and beaches.

We have our own failing state to deal with.  The best failing state on the globe.

 

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U.S. Futures Print Extreme Overnight Bounce

kenP

NASDAQ futures are set to come into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme [3rd sigma] range on normal volume.  Buyers saw price thrust higher last night then come into balance below Monday session high.  At 8:30am USA GDP came out slightly better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9am and Consumer Confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Strong selling off the open pushed price down through the week’s ATR measured move band and continued cascading lower, down to an micro-composite volume point-of-control [MCVPOC] printed back in early February at 4171 [see yesterday’s hypo 3].  From here two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher.  Look for a test above Monday session high 4243.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4248 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and test down to 4200 before responsive buyers step in, work us up through overnight high 4234.25.  Look for sellers up at 4241.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4200 and work a full gap fill down to 4178.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4715.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 full-on rally up through 4248 to target a weekly gap fill up to 4268.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

06282016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06282016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Week Begins Gap Down; Sellers Defend Attempts Back into Friday’s Range

Leonidas (GERARD BUTLER) personally delivers his answer to the Persian Messenger (PETER MENSAH) in Warner Bros. Pictures’, Legendary Pictures’ and Virtual Studios’ action drama “300,” distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures.
PHOTOGRAPHS TO BE USED SOLELY FOR ADVERTISING, PROMOTION, PUBLICITY OR REVIEWS OF THIS SPECIFIC MOTION PICTURE AND TO REMAIN THE PROPERTY OF THE STUDIO. NOT FOR SALE OR REDISTRIBUTION

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight to find a responsive bid around prices last seen in late-February.  From there the market worked higher, attempting a move back into last Friday’s range.  This was met with selling which ultimately pushed the market down near Globex session low before we settled into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Advance Good Trade Balance came out worst than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Markit Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am and a 3- and 6-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week started out with a strong gap up.  The move enticed buyers to initiate trades Monday morning before ultimately reversing near the end of the day.  Overall, we traded water after that until Thursday when the market began working higher with conviction.

Friday opened pro gap down after the Brexit vote.  The Friday morning open featured a strong bounce that pushed price up near the gap zone left behind Monday.  Lots of supply was discovered here and we spent the rest of the session trending lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap up to 4268.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4270 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 seller work lower off the open and take out overnight low 4215 setting up a move to the measured target at 4208.75.  Look for responsive buyers ahead of 4200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes the market below 4200 and sustains trade below it triggering a liquidation move down to 4171 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers close overnight gap 4268.50 then sustain trade above 4270 setting up a move to target 4300.  Stretch target is 4328.25.

Levels:

06272016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06272016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Routine Trumps Festivities: Month-End Strategy Is Live Inside Exodus

ExVIC

News of Brexit reached me inside the refugee camps of Electric Forest early Friday morning.  Celebration ensued, a British flag was hoisted, and it was immediately made clear I was claiming a swath of camp as my own.  My position was fortified by age [I am old] and gifts of Pabst Blue Ribbon.  Inside the mobile command unit I was taking many calls from Exodus members, eager to discuss the recent market happenings.

So I had to do a bit of adulting and leave the music festival 2-days early.  Initially I planned to connect to mothership remote and do my research from a tree stand.  Alas, a solid connection could not be achieved so I missed my favorite DJ, Bassnectar, opting instead to return to mothership last night and be ready today to dig into all the data produced by Friday’s knee-jerk reaction.

Because listen, and I had to have this talk with more than one Forester, once you’ve gone 84 consecutive weeks putting out Tier 1 research, never once skipping a beat, you do not abandon your post at a generation-critical time.  If I can instill one trait into my millennial readership, it would be routine.  Routine will be your rock.

So Exodus members, go check out this week’s Strategy Session.  I dug into the data, hardcore, and left all the news bites out.  If you want objectivity, this is your report to read.  If you have a hard time getting a feel for the info, drop me a comment below.  You can also reach me on snapchat [username- vCali] or Twitter/StockTwits @IndexModel.

This week’s report is literally my best research yet.  Behind our wall, the town is humming with information including a controversial stance from Le Fly.  Not everyone agrees on the best course of action going forward, but I will keep adhering to the guideposts of my model, diligently executing the decisions it makes.

Next week ought to be a Hold On kind of week:

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NASDAQ Compressing Ahead of BREXIT Vote; More Testimony from Yellen on Deck

encirccc

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was balanced, holding the range set yesterday during regular trading hours.  At 7am we saw an uptick in MBA Mortgage Applications, the index was negative on the last read [act. 2.9% vs -2.4% prior].

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am and Crude oil inventory data at 10:30am.  Janet Yellen will be on Capitol Hill for a second day, this time testifying to the House Financial Services Committee about monetary policy at 10am.

The BREXIT vote is tomorrow.  The market tipped its hand Sunday night, reacting as emphatically as it did to bookmakers offering better odds the voters will choose to remain part of the EU.  The reaction made it clear the market, overall, is waiting for this uncertainty to settle before choosing direction.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened gap up, drove higher briefly, went range extension down and closed the overnight gap, then pushed up through the range to go RE up, then settled back on the daily mean.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a little push off the open, a squeeze up to MCVPOC at 4425 before sellers come in and work the overnight gap fill down to 4400.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4400.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4393.75 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 a rally takes hold, pushes up through 4425 and sustains trade above it, setting up a move to 4442.25 then 4449.25.  Stretch target is open gap at 4458.50 .

Hypo 4 liquidation takes hold, pushes the market down below Monday’s low 4885 and closes the weekly gap down at 4359.

Levels:

06222016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06222016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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NASDAQ Throwing Violent Fits, But Ultimately Stuck Until the BREXIT Vote

number2

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight—initially with a burst of buying just after U.S. cash market close yesterday (which was faded) then by a slow march higher for the remainder of the evening.

Janet Yellen has to testify to the Senate Banking Committee about monetary policy today at 10am.  We have 4- and 52-week T-Bill auctions at 11:30am and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The week began with a pro gap up and buyers drove price higher off the open.  Just after the first hour of trade, and rather briefly, the market went range extension up.  Shortly after strong responsive selling came in, first working price down through the daily range then accelerating the liquidation down into the open gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the 4400 century mark.  Look for buyers here and then a move to take out overnight high 4415.75.  Look for price to continue higher, up to 4429 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers complete a full gap fill down to 4389.50 then take out overnight low 4388.25 setting up a test of Monday’s low 4385.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4374.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out overnight high 4415.75 and sustain trade above 4429 setting up a move to target 4442.50 then 4450.

Levels:

06212016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

06212016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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