iBankCoin
Home / Raul3

Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

How to set up a good psychedelic experience

I read a beautiful tweet this morning:

And whether or not this nice man came up with a billion dollar idea, we don’t know. It doesn’t matter. I know well the feeling behind the message and that he was brave enough and has a strong enough relationship with his wife to take psychedelics together is a wonderful thing.

Set and setting are so very important when you take these chemicals. Self-awareness skyrockets when we introduce these compounds to our body. The mushrooms show you what you need to see. Most of us have some goblins hiding out in our psyche, wrong doings, whatever, which is fine, however confronting those spooky things around the wrong people and/or in the wrong place is a recipe for a bad time.

You know, running down the street naked, rolling around in gutter puddles, stuff like that. No bueno.

I spend a good deal of my time building places I feel safe going on a trip. You would not believe how difficult it is to create total outdoor privacy. Pure, garden of eden style, nudity without the risk of offense, writhing around on the ground asking the gods why, why, WHYYYY? outdoor privacy. Ask me how I know.

There are a few ways. The first and least labor intensive is go to a national forest and hike at least a half day into the wild then venture off any beaten path. You will find, however, that it is extremely difficult to get away from humans. They. Are. Everywhere. Again. Ask me how I know.

Next you can build privacy. But don’t assume a six foot wooden fence will do it. It won’t. Don’t assume 20 acres of land will do it. It won’t. Some fucker always has the higher ground. I work hard in this department.

You need to become one hell of a gardener. In the north, emerald green arborvitaes are your friend. They need lots of space though, more then you might give them if you’re impatient and want privacy NOW. I recommend planting two rows of them in a checkerboard formation. So with a six foot wooden fence and about $5,000 fiat american dollar’s worth of arborvitae stock you are well on your way to creating total visual privacy. Guess what? You still need to create audible privacy.

You would not believe how fucking god damned nosy people can be when you start howling like a wolf. You’re going to need to build some fountains. Big ones. You really need lots of white noise if you’re a moaner.

Okay now the third way: obtain the high ground. This works well especially in the city where there is all sorts of other noises. Climb or otherwise gain access to the tallest building in sight. Bring a couple snacks, some forty ounce bottles of malt liquor and the psychedelic of choice. Make sure you have the mental fortitude not to lose your head up at those heights. I recommend a faithful companion.

The fourth way is a totally different set of circumstances and will result in a totally different experience. Which is fine. And can be wonderful — go to a massive gathering of freaks (rave, masquerade, festival) and sort of just go with the flow. Blend in with the wookies. Experience the deep interconnection to your fellow humans. Beware though. They may gross you out at some point—what with all their gluttony and pores….their pores…and their stimulant impulses.

So yeah man there you go. Those are a few ways to set up for a nice trip.

BACK TO MARKETS: We have a signal to work with from the IndexModel. The first one in thirteen weeks. Hallelujah. Bunker Buster. This is a wild signal. It calls for an acceleration to the downside which eventually leads to a low that can last for weeks. Months even.

And we’re heading into March. And the moon is big. And last week we had all that spooky numerology guff going on (3.33 on 02/21/21).

I do not day trade during Bunker Buster signals. But I do accumulate/add to long term investments. Therefore I will use the week to buy more TACO, TWTR, TSLA, FAMI, GOOGL and so on.

I will likely put out morning reports still. Or just tweet out my levels. Either way thank you for stopping by and just know I am looking for fast selling to buy into.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, February 28th 2021

And now the 327th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 03/01/21 – 03/05/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.55, medium bear*. Selling velocity increases to the downside, ultimately forming a sharp, excess low that holds for the rest of the week. Third reaction to Non-farm payroll data Friday morning sets direction heading into the end of the week.

*Bunker Buster signal triggered, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Pro gap down into the week. Sellers control the tape through early Tuesday. Buyers strong Tuesday and erase Wednesday’s down gap. Strong selling Thursday. Choppy Friday, chopping along the weekly lows.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations uniformly lower except for energy which continues to trade independent of other sectors.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed heavily to the downside last week. Median return nearly -2% but not quite. The median 30-day volume delta remains negative suggesting a continued outflow of capital from the equity complex.

bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Bunker Buster

This is the first bunker buster signal of 2021. There were four bunker busters in 2020 (2/2, 3/22, 6/28, 11/1). This signal is bullish, in a sense, but has been hard for me to use to my advantage in my day trading. I have however found it to be a useful time to accumulate additional long-term investments.

Therefore I will use the upcoming week to add to my favorite investments of 2021, especially into any fast selling. The key is to wait for responsive buyers to emerge. This will look like a sharp, fast bounce off the lows. It could come as soon as Monday morning.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Pro gap down into the week. Sellers control the tape through early Tuesday. Buyers strong Tuesday and erase Wednesday’s down gap. Strong selling Thursday. Choppy Friday, chopping along the weekly lows.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors wearing out support zone

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports still look to be in discovery up. Primary expectation is for a continued up phase.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors have pressed into their local support level hard three times. The more times a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. This could lead to a fresh leg lower. This general drawn box envisions where a new balance may form along the highs.

Or we could switch right into discovery down.

Or the support holds and discover up continues.

All this to say the key semiconductor index is looking uncertain heading into March.

neutral

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signaling bunker buster after thirteen consecutive weeks of neutral readings. This signal calls for an acceleration to the downside that ultimately discovers a tradable low.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Friday, February 5th Exodus flagged hybrid (and technical) overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that ran through Monday, February 22nd end-of-day. Here is the final performance:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.” – Buddha

Trade simple, be patient

 

 

Comments »

Not trading today // letting Jacked Dorsey do all the work

Lads I’ve been on the wrong side of the tape all week and very early yesterday I hit my weekly loss limit. I am in good spirits but rules are there for a reason. Namely so I don’t blow my account up.

Twitter is my second largest position. Yesterday’s spike did well to shore up some of the bleeding. But with Jack giveth, Elon taketh.

I will spend the day working on installing my dang kitchen. I reportedly have Cousin Raul on the way to help.

Twitter is a never sell for me. Soon I will be charging 1 doge to see my tweet, and at the rate I tweet this will make be a very rich doge.

Trade’em well lads. I’ll be back Sunday with preparations for the week.

Raul Santos, February 26th 2021

Comments »

Gap down in range ;-) here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NADSAQ future are coming into the final Thursday in February down about -100 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily declined overnight, balancing along the Wednesday high until about 3am New York when sellers began campaigning price lower. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out better than expected, GDP results were below forecast and jobless claims data came out better than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering about +80 above the Wednesday midpoint.

Key semiconductor component NVIDIA reported earnings after the bell Wednesday. Shares of the chip maker are down about -2.25% in pre-market trade.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range and after an open two-way auction sellers made a slight push lower, nearly tagging the Tuesday VPOC before a sharp excess low formed that would ultimately mark low-of-day. Price slashed through the midpoint then formed a quick and tight little chop just above the mid before beginning a steady campaign higher for the rest of the day. We ended on the highs, up into the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,329.25. Look for seller up at 13,325 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ on the move // was up now lower // Powell then NVIDIA on deck // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Wednesday of February down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, in a choppy sort-of way, first exceeding the Tuesday high around 8pm New York then falling back down to the Tuesday midpoint before walking back up and making a new overnight high. That second high happened around 8am and tagged the 0.618 retrace of this entire sell move (from 2/21 at 8:20pm through to 2/23 at 9:50am). Since then price has dropped about -250 points, and as we approach cash open price is hovering about +100 above the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am then a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Major semiconductor maker NVIDIA is set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap down then a sell drive down at the open. Sellers drove down and closed the gap left behind on MLK day before discovering responsive buyers who formed a sharp excess low. Buyers sent the auction higher, slicing through the daily midpoint and pushing an early range extension up. Price then fell back down to the midpoint and was sort of chopping all over it before buyers reasserted themselves and mounted a huge +300 point ramp into the close. Price closed in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,155.25. Look for sellers ahead of 13,200 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go down through overnight low 13,027 and tag 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers take out overnight high 13,295.50 on their way to tagging 13,300.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Pro gap down // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday down a quick -225 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. The selling began around 1am New York and the campaign lower continued unidirectionally until about 5:30am with the market catching a bid down in the lower quadrant of the January 29th range (the last trading day of January). As we approach cash open, price is hovering a touch higher, just below 13k, holding up a bit above the February 1st lows.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am, a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am followed by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down below the prior three sessions, down near the lows of February 2nd-4th. After an open auction outside range buyers made the initial push, pushing a bit beyond the opening swing but ultimately stalling and printing an excess high before the first hour was complete. That would mark the high. Sellers pressed down through the range quickly, then made an early range extension down. Price checked back to the midpoint around 2:15pm after one ticking below the prior daily low. Sellers defended, setting up a push lower into the close. We closed on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and work a half gap-fill up to 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 12,946.50 on their way to closing the open gap down at 12,886.25 (Jan 29th) before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag the MLK gap down at 12,772.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Pro gap down into final week of February // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 1am New York. Price was marking time inside the lower half of last Friday’s range before sellers stepped in and drove lower, driving down near but not exceeding the February 2nd low. Since then price has chopped in a little 60 point range along these lows. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the February 4th conviction buying range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week markets were closed Monday for President’s Day. The holiday shortened week kicked off Tuesday morning with a gap up to new highs. Sellers pressed into and erased the gap then continued lower through Wednesday morning. There was big chop for the rest of the week with sellers pressuring the tape into Friday’s close.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began a gap up right to the Wednesday close. Sellers drove into the opening bell and made short work of filling the overnight gap. Buyers then mounted a slow rally, back up through the daily mid and nearly up through the morning high. But instead the auction stalled and then made a fast move lower. The selling sent price down below the Thursday midpoint and we spent the rest of the session chopping along the daily low and into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,569 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower, down to 13,327.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Tired // still bullish // NVIDIA will tell a story

Started my research late. Then went for a winter walk. Then ate good soup. Came back and finished the Weekly Strategy Session.

Now I am tiredt. I shall light a fire and brood next to it until morning time.

Know this — the fate of the entire market lies in NVIDIA’s hands.

Raul Santos, February 21st, 2021

Here is strategy session I make for to enjoy and trade well maybe you love it.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 02/22/21 – 02/26/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.33, medium bull. Rally through end of Monday then choppy. Then look for third reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after the bell to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Markets closed Monday for President’s Day. Holiday shortened week kicked off with a gap up to new highs. Sellers pressed into and erased the gap then continued lower through Wednesday morning. Big chop for the rest of the week with sellers pressuring the tape into Friday’s close.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations a bit mixed but key sectors like Tech and Discretionary were lower.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows show a balanced ledger last week. Median return reflects this, just slightly negative on the week. Quality industry groups on the positive side the ledger. The median 30-day volume delta remains negative suggesting a subtle outflow of capital from the equity complex.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Holidays don’t count

When working through an overbought or oversold 10-day cycle it is important to remember market holidays do not count. This can throw off when we think a cycle is ending. The current overbought cycle triggered on the 12-month algo has been incorrectly noted these last two weeks to end last Friday, the 19th when actually it ends tomorrow, Monday the 22nd at end-of-day.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Rally through end of Monday then choppy. Then look for third reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after the bell to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Contextual sub-indices remain discovery up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Same as last week — transports continued their discovery up phase.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors continue to discover higher prices. NVIDIA earning out Wednesday after the bell could serve to pivot this entire index.

bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a thirteenth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Friday, February 5th Exodus flagged hybrid (and technical) overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Friday, February 19th end-of-day. Here is the performance thus far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“The confidence of people is worth more than money.” – Carter G. Woodson

Trade simple, guard your emotional capital

Comments »

NASDAQ choppy overnight / buyers prevail / here is Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into option expiration day up a quick +80 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price first drove lower overnight, rotating downward until about midnight New York when a bid stepped in right near the Thursday midpoint. Price has been unidrectional up since then, effectively driving up through the Wednesday and Thursday highs. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have PMI composite flash at 9:45am followed by existing home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down into the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range. After an open two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove price down to 13,500. Price overshot the century mark by about 30 points before a responsive bid stepped in. Said buyers reclaimed the midpoint and rallied about 30 points above it before one last check back to the mid. This check-back overshot the mid to the downside before buyers ultimately held the mid going into New York lunch. The rest of the session was spent rallying, with value shifting higher along the way. Buyers eventually tagged the Wednesday naked VPOC before we sort of chopped along the upper quad to end the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up and closing the gap up at 13,749 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers to reject a move back into the Tuesday range, holding price below 13,730 before working into the overnight inventory and closing the gap down to 13,638.50. Look for buyers down at 13,600 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 13,792 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

On the lows /// here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily declined overnight, slowly rotating down through the entire Wednesday range at 8:30am a slew of economic data came out. Housing starts in line with expectations, jobless claims higher than expected, Philadelphia Fed stronger than expected as were import export prices. As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the Wednesday low.

Major U.S. emoloyer Wal-Mart is -5% in premarket trade after reporting earnings.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm and Treasury Secretary Yellen is set to speak on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ show.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down below the Tuesday range. After an open two-way auction buyers made an attempt higher however the auction stalled well before returning to the Tuesday range. Sellers then worked price into a range extension down, trading down near last week’s low but not exceeding it. Instead we saw a strong ramp higher into the close, a ramp that effectively traversed the entire daily range and pushed neutral during settlement and closed on the high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to 13,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 13,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,695.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ down -120 heading into a busy day // here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Tuesday’s range until 8:30am New York. At 8:30am retail sales data came out much stronger than expected and the producer price index came out higher than expectations. The data was met with selling, selling that knocked the overnight session out of balance. As we approach cash open price is hovering down near last Friday’s low.

Busy day on the economic calendar. Today we also have business inventories and housing market index at 10am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Major U.S. employer and retail giant Wal-Mart is set to report earnings tomorrow morning before the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up beyond all prior highs. There was a sell spike on the open that successfully closed the overnight gap before buyers stepped in and formed an excess low. The first hour of trade was big and choppy, eventually leading to a brief range extension up. The auction reversed shortly after, quickly falling down through the daily mid adn then pressing neutral. The sellers tagged the naked VPOC from last Friday and exceeded it a bit before responsive buyers stepped in. Said buyers worked price back to the midpoint. Sellers defended. Twice. Eventually leading to a sell rotation into the closing bell. We closed off the lows but in the lower quadrant.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain Monday’s low 13,716. Sellers reject a move back into Monday range setting up a move down through overnight low 13,627.75. Look for buyers down at 13,600 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, down to 13,571.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a full gap fill up to 13,749. Eventually working up to 13,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »