Sunday, August 28, 2016
Home / Raul3

Raul3

I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations

FBI Announces They Will Delay The Release of Hillary’s Calendars Until After The Election

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 29:  U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton answers questions from people from around the world during a "Global Townterview" at the Newseum January 29, 2013 in Washington, DC. Clinton took questions from youths from around the world via satellite and social media including Twitter, Facebook and Skype in advance of her last day at the State Department Friday.  (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

If you thought the government would give you a chance to see former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s calendar book before the election, you are wrong.

The FBI plans to withhold the information until December 30th, a few weeks before the Presidential Inauguration.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Seven months after a federal judge ordered the State Department to begin releasing monthly batches of the detailed daily schedules showing meetings by Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of state, the government told The Associated Press it won’t finish the job before Election Day.

The department has so far released about half of the schedules. Its lawyers said in a phone conference with the AP’s lawyers that the department now expects to release the last of the detailed schedules around Dec. 30, weeks before the next president is inaugurated.

When the first batch of scheduling was released, it showed a State Department for sale, with more than half of all calls and meetings being with donors to the Clinton foundation.

While many see this behavior as fair, the big donations make others leery of Hillery Clinton’s allegiance.  Is she a steward to the US citizens, or is she out for piles of dead presidents?

Most agree that transparency is key.  When presented will all the facts, as brutal as they may be, anyone can make the right decision.  However, our elected officials and federal organizations do not want us to have all the facts.  Instead the calendar of our former Secretary of State will remain shrouded in slow-moving procedures until after we pick her to lead our country for the next four years.

Comments »

Trump Pulls A Classic Business Tactic on Immigration

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks about Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl at a rally Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

– Your mother is dead.

– No. What? Oh, my God!

–  No, she’s not dead, we’re getting divorced though.

– Why – Why – What – What – Why would you say that she’s dead?

– That’s a business tactic.  You drop the bomb, then you soften the blow.  You never tried this?

The above dialogue is from Season 2, Episode 1 of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia when Frank Reynolds, the fictional father of the show’s main characters, shows up after neglecting his children for years.

frank-lookinggood

As silly as the tactic sounds, and while it can be viewed as deceptive, it works well.  You never tried this?

It appears republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is working the same scheme on one of the most heavily debated issues facing the United States.  The billionaire businessman  was hard on illegal immigrants when he first came on the scene.

During early days of the primaries, Trump vowed to use a “deportation force” to round up and deport millions of illegal immigrants.

These initial comments, along with the infamous wall, were enough to startle people into paying attention.  Some were outraged, others invigorated.  Both sides were glued to the media frenzy that followed.

Once he had everyone’s attention (and the Republican nomination sealed) Trump began softening his aggressive rhetoric on the deportation of illegal immigrants.

“So you have somebody who’s been in the country for 20 years, has done a great job, and everything else,” Trump said. “Do we take him and the family and her and him or whatever and send him out?”

His question was met by some cheers over suggestions that immigrants be allowed to stay, while others responded in roars when he suggested deporting them.

The Republican nominee then said he “would come out with a decision very soon” about deportations.

Trump had been scheduled to outline his immigration policies on Thursday in Colorado, but that speech has since been postponed, likely until next week.

His latest comments at the town hall come as he may be moving away from one of his signature proposals during the Republican primary.

He is softening the blow.  He even said so:

“There could certainly be a softening because we’re not looking to hurt people,”

We have a businessman running for president, and he is using tactics that work in business.  Whether they are effective in politics will be determined in November.

As of August 27th, the statisticians at FiveThirtyEight are still 80% sure his methods will fail.

538-lateaug

 

 

 

 

Comments »

Nobody Cares About GDP; Investors Eager To Know If Yellen Will Lift Rates in 2016

jhole

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price traded a tight balance inside Thursday’s range for the duration of the Globex.  At 8:30am both Advance Trade Goods Balance and GDP came in better than expected.  There was no reaction to the news.

Investors are more interested to hear what Fed Chair Janet Yellen has to say at 10am, when she speaks from Jackson Hole.  Also on the economic docket we have U. of Michigan offering their final August reading of Confidence at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down and after a brief probe of the week’s low buyers worked into the overnight inventory and closed the gap.  Then sellers stepped in and we balanced out–marking time until the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4782.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 4786.50 to 4808.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 4775.75 then test below the week’s low 4768.25 setting up a liquidation down to 4756.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buying takes us up to 4815 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

08262016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

08262016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

Will Assange Release The Hillary Clinton Leaks Before One of Her Goons Kills Him?

hillthug

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has alluded to the existence of material capable of damning democratic presidential canidate Hillary Clinton for several weeks. Assange claims he is waiting for the right moment to release “a variety of different types of documents, from different types of institutions that are associated with the election campaign,” which he believes are significant enough to swing the election.

The editor-and-chief of WikiLeaks has even warned he has enough evidence on the Clinton Foundation to make Hillary lose the democratic nomination.  If she did in fact lose the nomination, DNC rules state the second canidate with the highest number of delegates would get the nomination.

Bernie bros –  stay strong, there is still a chance!

As the USA election draws near, the public grows anxious about when the leak will be released.  Assange seeks to achieve maximum impact from the information he releases, and the timing of the drop is critical.  On a Fox News interview (video below) Thursday he described this process:

It makes sense to time your leaks.  We are seeing just how easily a massive dump of information can be overlooked right now with the George Soros leak.  Ask 10 people if they knew a billionaire investor was bribing Catholic Bishops and there is a good chance none of them know or care because the deleterious facts are not going viral.

However, the public needs to obtain this information, and after a potential assassination attempt on Assange was thwarted there is reason to think we may not have the opportunity to see what WikiLeaks is holding onto.

There is also the mysterious murder of Seth Rich, a Assange suggested may have been killed in relation to the DNCLeak.  On July 8th Rich was walking home, talking to his girlfriend on the phone and boom, shot and killed.  Nothing was stolen away from him.  He was just made to be dead.

While the next batch of leaked documents may lead to an FBI indictment against Hillary Clinton, this process can only occur if the data dump is made available to the public.  Let’s hope the Ecuadorian embassy in London keeps him safe.

Comments »

Strong Economic Readings Rattle Investors Heading into Jackson Hole

FILE - In this May 7, 2010, file photo traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York. The Dow Jones industrials'  1,000 point nosedive the day before, along with Europe's spreading debt crisis and fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, are turning up the heat on Congress to get the nation's financial house under control. Two senators have proposed requiring the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to scrutinize high-frequency trading and other computerized strategies that move buy and sell orders at blinding speeds, practices that may have contributed to Thursday's snowballing selloff.  (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Wednesday’s range while working lower.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders came in well above expectations, and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am then a 7-year note auctino at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  This came on the heels of a failed auction Tuesday and confirmed the pattern, which will be considered a live pattern as long as price sustains below 4816.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make an early push lower and attempt to trigger a liquidation.  This attempt ultimately fails, and we print a sharp reversal back up to 4800 before two way trade ensues as investors wait for Jackson Hole on Friday.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory off the open and close the gap up to 4787.50.  Buyers sustain trade above 4800 setting up a move to target 4808 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full-on liquidation, down to 4757 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

082532016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

08252016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »

Hackers Gain Access To George Soros; Over 2,500 Internal Documents Leaked Online

soros

The curtains have been drawn open and hardly anyone is parsing through the findings.  Most journalism outlets refuse to mention that George Soros has been hacked and over 2,500 of his internal documents are now floating freely online.

Regardless of their silence, this is the biggest glimpse into how money can buy the direction of our Democratic leaders since #DNCLeak.

So far one documents show how billionaire political activist and investor George Soros is actively running a plot alongside the refugee crisis in Europe.  He sees the flood of migrants into Europe as providing “new opportunities,” for his organization to further influence global immigration policy.

A leaked email shows Soros paid $650,000 to influence a catholic bishop during the Pope’s visit to USA.

Any hound sleuths who want to participate in the hunt can access the entire document leak at DCLeaks. The website categorizes the emails by region involved.

These findings further demonstrate how the global elitist views significant world events and what he does to capitalize on the fragility of affected people and countries.

The documents have only been live to the public since August 11th.  It will like some time (No FBI) for people to finish combing through the data before all the shifty dealings are revealed.

For now, take solice in the fact that anyone tuning in to mainstream media has no idea this information is available.

thelive

Comments »

Here Is Everything You Need To Know About The Failed Auction

The Man burns during the Burning Man 2013 arts and music festival in the Black Rock Desert of Nevada, August 31, 2013. The federal government issued a permit for 68,000 people from all over the world to gather at the sold out festival, which is celebrating its 27th year, to spend a week in the remote desert cut off from much of the outside world to experience art, music and the unique community that develops. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart (UNITED STATES - Tags: SOCIETY TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY) FOR USE WITH BURNING MAN RELATED REPORTING ONLY. FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. NO THIRD PARTY SALES. NOT FOR USE BY REUTERS THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTORS ORG XMIT: BRC186

This morning we discussed Tuesday’s failed auction, which is just a name given to an event that sometimes occurs when a market trades.

When one of this chart pattern shows up, I make a big deal about it because on October 2nd, 2014 I made an oath to the good readers of iBankCoin.

And for damn good reason–these failed auctions have been a popular feature at many an inflection point during my young career as a trader.

The last time we had a significant failed auction was back in December of 2015.  We discussed it ad nauseam:

December 2nd, 2015 – Failed Auction May Signal Trouble Ahead

December 3rd – Failed Auction Validated: Hide Your Wives, Kids

December 11th – It All Started With A Failed Auction

Perhaps your short-term memory does not recall what happened later that month and into January…

082432016_NQ_failedauc

With regards to our current failed auction, it validated this afternoon.  Consider my bias short as long as price stays below /NQ_F 4816.

 

Comments »

Failed Auction Alert on NASDAQ

turmoil

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower until about 3am, right down to the MCVPOC at 4805 before printing a v-shaped bounce back to Tuesday’s close.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in lower than last week’s reading.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Existing Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year Note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down after taking out swing high.  The nature of this move, taking out swing high then swiftly reversing, elevates the possibility of a failed auction, a price pattern that has marked inflection points in recent history.

Here’s a look at the potential failed auction on the NASDAQ:

Failed-auction-08242016

Note: the same event happened on the S&P 500 yesterday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4805.25.  We’re going to test down through our balance and probe the other side of it, most likely, now that the topside has failed.  Look for a move down to 4796.50 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers show up in the VPOC zone from 4805 – 4795 and we chop about in this region all day.

Hypo 3 buyers show up around 4812.50 and the push up through overnight high 4823.50.  They continue higher, up through Tuesday’s high 4836.75, effectively negating the failed auction.  Look for sellers up at 4839 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

082432016_NQ_MP

Comments »

Reports from The Far East Show A Mature Semiconductor Cycle

ghangis-khan

The semiconductors have enjoyed a renaissance over the the summer, with the PHLX Semiconductor index is up nearly 25% since May.

phlx-renn

However a Digitimes report out of Taiwan Wednesday show orders from Intel slowing down:

Josephine Lien, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 24 August 2016]

With Intel decelerating its pace of orders for baseband chips, utilization rates for TSMC’s 28nm processes are set to drop slightly in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to industry sources.

A pull-in of orders for smartphone-related chips has heated up and filled TSMC’s 28nm process capacity with utilization rate reaching 110% in the third quarter, said the sources. However, orders for baseband chips from Intel are slowing down which will likely drag down the foundry’s 28nm utilization rate in the fourth quarter, the sources indicated.

TSMC’s 28nm process utilization rate is expected to experience its first sequential fall since 2016 in the fourth quarter, the sources noted. Nevertheless, TSMC has enjoyed strong demand overall for 28nm chips since 2012, the sources said.

In addition to brisk orders for smartphones, TSMC’s 28nm processes have attracted orders from major set-top box (STB) companies including Realtek Semiconductor, MStar Semiconductor and ALi, the sources indicated. China-based HiSilicon, which is contracting TSMC to make its handset chips, also has STB solutions manufactured using TSMC’s 28nm process technology, the sources said.

Brisk orders for smartphone chips including related peripheral ICs, as well as STB chips, already filled TSMC’s 28nm process capacity in the first half of 2016, the sources said.

Just last Monday Needham put out a harsh assessment of Micron Technology,  the strongest performing semiconductor stock during the chip run.

It is hard to bet against semiconductors up here after breaking free from several years of range, but technical reports are starting to lean bearish as summer comes to an end.

In terms of investing and trading, watching the acceleration and slowing of underlying orders is rarely actionable.  However it does provide some context on where we may be in the cycle of a rally.  Perhaps a short-squeeze of the fundamental variety is in order?

Comments »

Pay To Play: AP Bombshell Reveals A State Department For Sale During Clinton Regime

clint-found

The Associated Press obtained State Department calendars, and upon review they found most people outside the government who met with Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State gave money to the Clinton Foundation.

WASHINGTON (AP) —At least 85 of 154 people from private interests who met or had phone conversations scheduled with Clinton while she led the State Department donated to her family charity or pledged commitments to its international programs, according to a review of State Department calendars released so far to The Associated Press. Combined, the 85 donors contributed as much as $156 million. At least 40 donated more than $100,000 each, and 20 gave more than $1 million.

If a private sector civilian wanted to sit at the big girl table over in Washington, they had to grease the wheels at the Clinton Foundation.

Maybe the donation puts you on the books for some face time with Hillary, or perhaps it buys you a 10 minute phone call.  A charitable donation first, then a meeting, a bit more charity, and finally the State Department clears up the obstacle.

Now set the private sector aside.  Foreign countries had to buy in also:

Clinton met with representatives of at least 16 foreign governments that donated as much as $170 million to the Clinton charity, but they were not included in AP’s calculations because such meetings would presumably have been part of her diplomatic duties.

The Clinton Foundation took in nearly $200 million dollars from 16 foreign governments.  They presumably paid these fees for special access to State Department intelligence and access to key personnel inside the state.

One of the private meetings was with Muhammad Yunus, the Bangladeshi economist who pioneered micro-loans which are low-denomination loans given to extremely poor people in developing countries.  Said loans often carry usurious interest rates.

Muhammad Yunus, a Bangladeshi economist who won the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize for pioneering low-interest “microcredit” for poor business owners, met with Clinton three times and talked with her by phone during a period when Bangladeshi government authorities investigated his oversight of a nonprofit bank and ultimately pressured him to resign from the bank’s board. Throughout the process, he pleaded for help in messages routed to Clinton, and she ordered aides to find ways to assist him.

American affiliates of his nonprofit Grameen Bank had been working with the Clinton Foundation’s Clinton Global Initiative programs as early as 2005, pledging millions of dollars in microloans for the poor. Grameen America, the bank’s nonprofit U.S. flagship, which Yunus chairs, has given between $100,000 and $250,000 to the foundation — a figure that bank spokeswoman Becky Asch said reflects the institution’s annual fees to attend CGI meetings. Another Grameen arm chaired by Yunus, Grameen Research, has donated between $25,000 and $50,000.

As a U.S. senator from New York, Clinton, as well as then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and two other senators in 2007 sponsored a bill to award a congressional gold medal to Yunus. He got one but not until 2010, a year after Obama awarded him a Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Yunus first met with Clinton in Washington in April 2009. That was followed six months later by an announcement by USAID, the State Department’s foreign aid arm, that it was partnering with the Grameen Foundation, a nonprofit charity run by Yunus, in a $162 million commitment to extend its microfinance concept abroad. USAID also began providing loans and grants to the Grameen Foundation, totaling $2.2 million over Clinton’s tenure.

By September 2009, Yunus began complaining to Clinton’s top aides about what he perceived as poor treatment by Bangladesh’s government. His bank was accused of financial mismanagement of Norwegian government aid money — a charge that Norway later dismissed as baseless. But Yunus told Melanne Verveer, a long-time Clinton aide who was an ambassador-at-large for global women’s issues, that Bangladesh officials refused to meet with him and asked the State Department for help in pressing his case.

“Please see if the issues of Grameen Bank can be raised in a friendly way,” he asked Verveer. Yunus sent “regards to H” and cited an upcoming Clinton Global Initiative event he planned to attend.

Clinton ordered an aide: “Give to EAP rep,” referring the problem to the agency’s top east Asia expert.

Yunus continued writing to Verveer as pressure mounted on his bank. In December 2010, responding to a news report that Bangladesh’s prime minister was urging an investigation of Grameen Bank, Clinton told Verveer that she wanted to discuss the matter with her East Asia expert “ASAP.”

Clinton called Yunus in March 2011 after the Bangladesh government opened an inquiry into his oversight of Grameen Bank. Yunus had told Verveer by email that “the situation does not allow me to leave the country.” By mid-May, the Bangladesh government had forced Yunus to step down from the bank’s board. Yunus sent Clinton a copy of his resignation letter. In a separate note to Verveer, Clinton wrote: “Sad indeed.”

Clinton met with Yunus a second time in Washington in August 2011 and again in the Bangladesh capital of Dhaka in May 2012. Clinton’s arrival in Bangladesh came after Bangladesh authorities moved to seize control of Grameen Bank’s effort to find new leaders. Speaking to a town hall audience, Clinton warned the Bangladesh government that “we do not want to see any action taken that would in any way undermine or interfere in the operations of the Grameen Bank.”

Hillary went to Bangladesh and dropped some strong-armed rhetoric at a town hall in their country.  It cost Yunus and his people about $300,000 to have the Secretary of State from USA endorse their bank.

There are more case studies in the full Associated Press report showing a similar link between donations to the Clinton foundation and preferential treatment by the state.  They call into question the ethics of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and the potential for corruption if she is elected.

Comments »