Buying Gold and Bonds into this Stock Rally

It’s a real nice rally. I’m proud of all you heading into the burning house for the sake of capitalism. Personally, I’d like to see the entire house burn down.

But this isn’t about my feelings, and certainly not yours.

As an asset class, in spite of today’s tremendous rally, both gold and bonds outperformed stocks for the second straight week. Ergo, and this goes without saying, the correct call here is to buy more.

If stocks continue higher next week, I will correct my allocation. But for now, and this isn’t up for debate, risk off assets are the better performing asset classes.

Now that rape is legal in Sweden, they’ve decided it’d be hypocritical of them to charge Assange with such a low level crime. As such, they’ve dropped charges today — after 7 years of abject fuckery.

“According to Swedish legislation, a criminal investigation is to be conducted as quickly as possible. In order to proceed with the case, Julian Assange would have to be formally notified of the criminal suspicions against him.

“We cannot expect to receive assistance from Ecuador regarding this. Therefore the investigation is discontinued.”

British authorities said they’d still arrest him, should he be so bold as to step outside the embassy, for a failing to surrender to a court offense — which is punishable up to 1 year in prison.

“Now that the situation has changed and the Swedish authorities have discontinued their investigation into that matter, Mr Assange remains wanted for a much less serious offence. The MPS will provide a level of resourcing which is proportionate to that offence.”

“Ecuador will now be intensifying its diplomatic efforts with the UK so that Julian Assange can gain safe passage in order to enjoy his asylum in Ecuador.”

If I was Assange, I’d be suspect as fuck to step out of that embassy — following 5 grueling years of self imposed captivity. With Assange out of the embassy, he’s a much easier target for anyone who’d like to kill him.

Assange’s attorney, Juan Branco, said the Wikileaks founder would be formally requesting asylum in France today.

Gross underperformance, lads. I’m not trying to stock pick here. My new systematic approach, using a quantitative model that I’ve created inside Exodus, will most likely keep me out of stocks — once again this week — and into more TLT and GLD. The outperformance is staggering, with both risk off assets crushing stocks by at least 200bps over the past week. Couple that with the fact that we’re not at a significant mean reversion fork in the road, and I am sold on staying out of equities for another week.

The one silver lining is the dollar getting pounded again. This is a net positive for exporters.

Head and Shoulders lads; get the fuck out of dodge

Next week is the Comey testimony. I’m thinking, it might make sense to take a trade ahead of that news — since it’s highly unlikely he will corroborate the media’s version of his memos. After all, by failing to report Trump to the AG, he’d be placing himself in the ‘fag box‘ and I don’t think he wants to do that, especially now that he’s retired.

If I’m correct, next week might represent a sharp upside reversal in stocks. However, I need to see confirmation first, more than just intuitive perception.

For now, gold and bonds are my only investments and I’ll likely be adding to them today.

NOTE: Exodus has flashed oversold on its 3,6 and 12 mo algorithms earlier this week, along with some important ETFs like TNA and FAS. The reason why I didn’t take the trade is because the principle algorithm, the 36 mo, did not register oversold.

If Comey admits to being ‘disgusted’ by ‘hugging’ Trump, I fucking promise to eat a shoe on my inactive periscope account. When I clicked on this stupid story from The Shill, I figured I’d just watch it and move on. So I got to watching it and as it went on, it became more absurd, almost perverse, in the blatancy of the lies being purported by this former Washpo editor and Brookings Institue faggot.

If you’re a democrat and believe this is a person of repute, feel free to fuck yourself. Look at this submental, literally making the story up as he went along the faggot rode paved for him by the PBS eunuch.

‘He really wanted to blend in and not be singled out. He’s wearing, if you watch the video, he’s wearing a blue blazer. And he stands in the room that is as far from Trump that is physically possible to be and also against blue drapes that are the same color as his –‘

‘He chose that spot?’

‘He chose that spot because it was almost like a chameleon or camouflaged against the wall.’

Fuck yourself Ben Wittes.

It’s worth noting, Wittes has a black belt in Taekwondo. I still like my chances in beating him senseless, if afforded the chance, however.

Following the unbelievable incident where bodyguards for the Turk-roach leader, Erdogan, rushed through a cadre of out of shape DC police officers to beat the shit out of anti-Erdogan protesters, crazy as fuck Senator John McCain called for the Turkish Ambassador to leave the country — saying ‘it’s disgraceful and shouldn’t be happening in the United States. If they want to behave that way in Turkey, that’s too bad and I regret it. Under no circumstances should they behave like that on American soil.’

If you’ve ever wondered why I voted for Trump or was unable to support the psychopathic beta male democratic party, it is Maxine Waters. She represents everything what’s wrong with society. She lives in a $4 million mansion, leading a legacy of unbelievable unchecked scandal — typical of Californian politics, beset with an IQ of a primate.

Here she is, in all of her stupendous grandeur, telling a Morning Joe shill that Putin, in fact, invented the term ‘lock her up’ for Trump — because the english language is, obviously, is a communicative field of expertise for the NON-ENGLISH speaking Russian President.

In a perfect world, people like this would be wiped clean from the earth, protecting future generations from her stupidity and abject malfeasance. But in the latter stages of Empire America, this fucking moron, Ms. Waters, reigns supreme.

When asked about the appointment of a special counsel to investigate Trump’s ‘Russian ties’, he said “I respect the move, but the entire thing has been a witch hunt and there was no collusion between myself and my campaign.’

When asked if he suggested to Comey to back down from the investigated Flynn, Trump answered definitively ‘no, no, next question.’

Fifty five percent of stocks were higher on the day, mostly found in banks. Gains were nearly cut by 2/3rds from session highs. Several chinese internet stocks, like WB and SOHU, were sharply higher too. REITs were, once again, marginally higher for the day, which is odd, since it’s a defensive sector. Retail was sharply lower, as the dead mall thesis permeates the minds of traders. The sector won’t die until the last bull (Jeff Macke) cedes it’s over.

Apple’s 1.55% gain, single handedly, rocked both the Nasdaq and Dow higher.

Hey, 3D printing stocks were up again, led by XONE and DDD. That counts for something, no?

Putting cynicism aside, the trannies were higher today too and it’s always a good thing to see the losses stop. So, in that light, today was a great day. I just wished there were better breadth and overall participation in the gains.

Here were today’s median returns, broken down by market cap.

Over $50b +0.35%
$10-50b +0.33%
$5-10b +0.22%
$1-5b +0.21%
$500m-$1b +0.10%
Under $500m 0.00%

As you can see, the gains dissipated as market caps went lower — indicative of risk aversion. Naturally, the 3D printing stocks were the anomaly today. There is a neatly set convoy of stocks, aka ‘hedge fund hotels’, which is leading the market higher.

Here they are, with YTD gains.

AAPL +32%
GOOGL +20%
MSFT +10%
AMZN +28%
FB +28%
BABA +36%

How about this for proof?

Market caps over $50b are higher, on a median basis, by 8% for the year. Everything below $50b is up less than 1%.

All of this political upheaval has resulted in Trump’s base rushing to his aid, not because they like him again, but because they’re playing team politics and hate the other side. I know many of you, even on the left, know exactly what I’m talking about. But let’s not forget, it was Trump who abandoned his base with the bombing of a Syrian airport, proposed surge in Afghanistan, and saber rattling against N. Korea. Voters requested, or demanded, ‘America first.’ The definition of that policy has become a blur since the election — as the American military-industrial complex pursues peace through offensive measures. If space aliens just visited this planet for the first time, why, they might conclude we were, in fact, the villains.

According to reports, Syrian government forces violated the ‘deconfliction zone’ in al-Tanf — a place where American forces have taken up clay inside Syria to train terrorists, err rebels, in order to overthrow the Assad regime. They violated this zone inside their own country twice over the past few days. In one menacing incident, ‘regime vehicles’ drove within 18 miles of al-Tanf, accompanied by an unarmed soviet made SU-22 fighter — and was quickly intercepted by two F-22s.

As such, we smoked them out.

BuzZzzzZfeed reports from the scene.

As US officials are explaining it, today’s US strikes on pro-regime forces in southern Syria were force protection for US SF based there

— Mike Giglio (@mike_giglio) May 18, 2017

hearing that US strikes hit a mix of regime and pro-regime militia forces. and destroyed a handful of advancing vehicles.

— Mike Giglio (@mike_giglio) May 18, 2017

Unlike the US strike against the al-Shayrat air base in March, which the Trump administration ordered in retaliation for a regime chemical weapons attack, Thursday’s strike seemed designed to protect the US forces based at Tanf.

One of the defense officials — who, like the others, spoke on condition of anonymity to reveal details that the Pentagon had yet to make public — said that the US acted to stop an advance of pro-regime forces toward Tanf. Pro-regime forces had crossed a pre-agreed deconfliction zone and continued to advance despite warning strikes, he added. The strikes destroyed several vehicles. It was unclear if they resulted in any deaths.

The 5th Special Forces Group has been training and mentoring pro-Western rebel groups in and around Tanf for about six months as part of the anti-ISIS campaign developed under then-President Barack Obama and continued by the Trump administration.

While contact with ISIS units is to be expected considering the mission, this is the first instance of American air power being used against pro-Assad forces to support American troops and their rebel allies.

With a mission that focuses completely on ISIS, US troops have rarely had to worry about operating in close proximity to Syrian forces and their aligned militias. The last encounter between the groups occurred last month when Syrian troops passed near a special operations group in the Kurdish areas, but that remained peaceful. As the territory dominated by ISIS collapses in the face of advances by Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq forces in Mosul, though, the world’s most crowded battlespace further shrinks.

Brazil might have an actual Presidential scandal, which is lighting their index on fire now — off by a staggering 11%. How are your BRIC trades working out? US markets are shrugging off all bad news, whether it be a horrendous CSCO warning, Trump in turmoil, a rancid China Unicom cooking the books, plunging copper. It does not matter. Cognitive dissonance is a very powerful mentality, especially amongst the beta amongst us.

Bovespa, clown-raped

Following a 370 point drubbing, one should expect an attempt to bounce here. Traders are accustomed to making money on dips, so it would not surprise me to see it attempted now. But at some point along this winding road, fundamentals will matter.

All that aside, the model that I’ve assembled takes the emotion out of my decision making process. Ergo, if stocks deserve to be bought, I will buy them. I am chasing alpha, but have given myself an out by buying hedges in TLT and GLD when the numbers demand it. As of last Friday, the numbers demanded it.

Whether Trump gets impeached or not is immaterial to the bear case being talked about on Wall Street now. The worry is the economy and all of the stimulus that was supposed to happen looking grim with all of these distractions. Plus, the NASDAQ is higher by 11% YTD predicated on some sort of reflationary lift. Should things continue to spiral lower for Trump, coupled with seasonal factors, markets will get shredded to pieces this summer.