iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
16,244 Blog Posts

Barring a Huge Melt Up Today, I’ll Be Adding to $TLT, $GLD and Staying Out of Stocks

Gross underperformance, lads. I’m not trying to stock pick here. My new systematic approach, using a quantitative model that I’ve created inside Exodus, will most likely keep me out of stocks — once again this week — and into more TLT and GLD. The outperformance is staggering, with both risk off assets crushing stocks by at least 200bps over the past week. Couple that with the fact that we’re not at a significant mean reversion fork in the road, and I am sold on staying out of equities for another week.

The one silver lining is the dollar getting pounded again. This is a net positive for exporters.


Head and Shoulders lads; get the fuck out of dodge

Next week is the Comey testimony. I’m thinking, it might make sense to take a trade ahead of that news — since it’s highly unlikely he will corroborate the media’s version of his memos. After all, by failing to report Trump to the AG, he’d be placing himself in the ‘fag box‘ and I don’t think he wants to do that, especially now that he’s retired.

If I’m correct, next week might represent a sharp upside reversal in stocks. However, I need to see confirmation first, more than just intuitive perception.

For now, gold and bonds are my only investments and I’ll likely be adding to them today.

NOTE: Exodus has flashed oversold on its 3,6 and 12 mo algorithms earlier this week, along with some important ETFs like TNA and FAS. The reason why I didn’t take the trade is because the principle algorithm, the 36 mo, did not register oversold.

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6 comments

  1. dmfracer

    Melt up is a possible scenario. Not much Econ news on calendar. Friday. Momentum continuing from yesterday, maybe. And lots of $SPX and $SPY open interest at $236 and $238 for OPEX.

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    • derp

      WAPO is going after Pence this morning. I guess the Russia Muh well is running dry.

      I feel bad for Comey. He will always be the queer who leaked bullshit. And for what? To play the political hack game? There are some fine upstanding FBI agents who give a damn about law and order believe it or not. It should be a legal requirement for any future FBI director to have real law enforcement experience, you know, as opposed to a faggot US attorney from the NY office who never prosecuted one banker and sat on the board of HSBC….

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  2. joyous__ending
    joyous__ending

    We are entering a sorry time of the year for stocks. Buying oversold will work as in Wednesday’s close. There will be money to be made this summer just wait and buy the next day where the media talks about Trump and the bull being finished.

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