The Market Looks Great

I heard you like banks? How do you like this chart, the KRE regional bank ETF.

It’s only a matter of time now because SCHW loses another $100b in deposits thanks to cash sorting.

What does this market landscape look like now?

Well, we have Chinese penny stocks barreling higher by 1000% inside a few short hours, heavily short one day bankrupt companies shooting higher based off a sugar rush, and BIG TECH surging ahead thanks to monopolistic practices. The real market is the IWM and the IWM is down nearly 12% over the past 3 months. We have a real tangible danger ahead of us in regards to the regional banks — because the loss of equity causes insolvency.

BANKS IN TROUBLE:
PACW, FFWM, FHN, WAL, ZION, BKU, CMA, BOH, KEY, SCHW, EBC, CUBI.

Like 2008, this burgeoning crisis is very transparent, slow moving, and predictable. Enjoy the semblance of normalcy now for by the time Autumn comes ’round, you’ll be lit aflame and burning to a cinder begging for it to end.

CVNA is up another 22% — at the same time various regionals knife lower. The IWM is once again red, at the same time piece of shit stocks like FUBO gap up. Breadth is marooned at 44% and ZS came out with an upside pre-announcment lending strength to the entire SAA sector.

Out of nowhere, coal and natty are up — but sadly biotech is marked lower.

If you’re haven difficulty trading this tape — it is because you’re a normal person and not a lizard. Only lizards can understand this tape with all of its grant eccentricities.

My Quant is powered by lizards, so up 68bps. But my trading account is -56bps, based upon the whims of man.

Do not give into the apathy, taking off the summer like losers. Keep at it — sweating profusely at the monitor whilst your friends summer at Newport on yachts — popping champagne corks into each other’s faces.

Eventually, all of the hard work pays off and then you’re dead and your money sent to your kids who spend it on clothes, trips, and ill advised luxuries until they’re broke.

Nearly every single time I go on vacation markets careen lower, causing me to panic and forced to divert attention away from all of the beauty and splendors of exotic attractions and food to the evils of stocks. Since I’m going away for 15 days starting Wednesday, it’s fair to assume something very terrible will happen when I’m there.

I know what you’re thinking: “this narcissistic piece of shit thinks the simulation revolves around him.” This is precisely true, actually. You’re all side characters in this AI program, digging holes, playing the fool on Twitter, etc. I fully expect a global financial meltdown to occur within a fortnight.

Early going, SAAS and select commodities look ok. When SAAS is stromg the market usually does well. However, I think the market looks very terrible and will be happy to short it soon.

Stop emailing me, at once. I will never feel sorry for your sloth, the inability to email me in time to gain access to the world’s best stock market data platform and Gentleman’s trading room. I’ve been tasked, due to various degrees of inefficiencies which are entirely my fault, to create each trial with my bare hands. I am tired of offering gratuities to grifters and mountebanks — plebs who’ve read me since 2007 — but never even bothered to purchase a poorly made mug from me.

For the next two weeks while I’m away, I intend to annoy Mrs. Fly via trading from my phone. I realize Europe’s timezones are not in sync with US markets — but I will attempt to do something whilst cavorting on one highly overpriced tour after the next. I will do the weekly quant on Monday — but FORGO IT next week — as I am sure my travels will interfere with proper management of my positions. I will, however, take pot shots at the market when possible and blog in the evenings in order to maintain my very lofty royalties paid to me by my son of a bitch advertisers who festoon my website with their complete crap.

I wanted you to watch Mr. Hugh Hendry wax poetic over the current crisis, a viewpoint that I share with him almost identically. Although in recent years he’s debased himself marooned on an island tripping on acid, back during the financial crisis of 2008 — no one had been better.

HUGH HENDRY THINKS US GOVT WILL FREEZE AMERICAN BANK DEPOSITS $XLF
pic.twitter.com/mBzeQljUyX

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 5, 2023

The gist of his argument is that the current crisis is Fed managed and there is nothing they can do to stop it — because people will not leave money at banks for 1% and would prefer t-bills at 5%. This is called “cash sorting” and this is why SCHW will trade to zero when this is all said and done.

The unrealized treasury losses on bank balance sheets will need to be realized once capital flies, forcing them to take losses they never needed to take. The only way to stop it — they’ll FORCE you to keep your money at your bank.

If you like your bank, you can keep your bank.

I traded shitty today — yet still managed +245bps. I took a 20% hedge via TZA at the close, in spite of being bullish. I did this because I know, at some point, it’s gonna end and when it does — ALL STOCKS will hit rockbottom and there won’t be anywhere for you to hide. You’ll try to hide underneath a rock or perhaps wedged in between a crevasse — but the market will find you and rip your arms and legs from your torso — kicking you into the pits of hell to repent for a life of waste and greed.

I depart for Europe next week for two weeks. I remind you of this because I will sparsely update the blog for the next 2 weeks or so. You are welcomed to join Stocklabs and talk to my fellow traders in there if bored, or you can fuck off for a fortnight and check in with me towards the end of May.

Everything worked out according to doctrine. Whilst my enemies soiled their pantaloons into the close yesterday, I was emboldened to exit an otherwise harrowing session 152% leveraged long and boosted with upside ETFs out of my fucking mind. Much to my delight, everything worked out and even CARL “FUCK YOU GIVE ME THREE SEATS ON YOUR BOARD” ICAHN is on the move. I doubled my position at the open and just kicked it out for a 6% win.

I stand before you, once again, a victorious man. My library room now plays chamber music and chamber music only. The supple leather and silky rugs help me think amidst the leather-bound books which adorn my surroundings. You attempted to defeat me and now your head is in the guillotine. How does it feel?

+250bps and rising.

NOTE: Today is the final day to get a free trial to Stocklabs. Email me for access: [email protected]

I’ve been lost in the wilderness — taking Ls like Grant — bad tactics command retarded results. I have no one else but to blame but everyone else. After all, I am not wrong — just early.

Apple beat and authorized a $90b share buyback. They might as well up it to $500 trillion. It makes no difference.

The only thing that matters now is whether the banking system as we know it can make it. More than that, how incompetent is the Fed, really? We are now pricing in a 60% chance of a June rate cut. Meanwhile, the Fed is out to crush inflation.

I have only a few days left until I depart to Europe, at which point whatever bed I’ve made for myself will have to be endured. At the moment, I’ve been losing about 3% per week and it might be a lot more than that tomorrow, when I chance upon my highly leveraged only long portfolio boosted with upside ETFs. I’ve made this determination based upon my conviction that what doesn’t destroy us can only make us stronger — in this case the lack of fear and panic in the face of a very obvious broken and bidless banking sector.

Things are bad enough without the sophomoric CUNTS in the media making things worse. Let me tell you the type of people who take up journalism.

FT published this tidbit regarding WAL exploring options for their shit company.

Joyfully, I was enjoying a full collapse of western finance as we knew it.

And then…this happened.

$WAL THREATENS TO SUE FT OVER ALLEGED FAKE NEWS STORY SUGGESTING THE BANK WAS LOOKING FOR A BIDDER ***

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 4, 2023

And we saw some whip-sawing of stocks, mostly to the upside for the banks based off the notion that FT was just making shit up. Things are hard out there, on par with the wild bullshit I had to deal with in 2008 when Charlie Meatball Gasparino interrupted by trading day 4 times a day for months in order to disseminate some bullshit rumors about bailouts and deals. 99% of them turned out to be false and if you’re up for some digging, you can find all of that shit in my archives — as we go back here, way the fuck back, to 2007.

I am still wading into shorts here, with a watchful eye on CARL ICAHN’s IEP, which is apparently on the menu. I bought some back and almost instantly lost some money in it; but I have reserves to buy more — as I am only 157% leveraged to the fucking hilt trying to sort out this fucking God damned mess.

Regulators are working on new insurance schemes but I really don’t think it matters. The reputation of the small banks are forever lost and people don’t really care about them and prefer to have their money at JP Morgan. That’s just the way it is.

So what’s going to end up happening is widespread collapse of the regional banking space and the FDIC can’t cover it all and Chase can’t buy them all. These bank runs could spell an extreme version of doom, never seen before.

Today TD Bank told FHN to fuck themselves and canceled their proposed merger. I’m pretty sure the only way they could do this is due to a material change in FHNs business. The stock is down 45%. Based on all this you see, how can the FOMC with a straight face say hiking rates was a good decision? The reason why this is happening is because of the Fed, period end of story.

Today we are also seeing the contagion spread to insurance firms. Look at MET and PRU getting knifed in the fucking face. How do you paper over this?

You can’t. Banks are losing deposits because people don’t see why they should keep money at PACW over JPM.

I started the day down 1.2% thanks in part to CARL FUCKING ICAHN collapsing again, due to some internet short seller. What in the fuck Carl? I sold it out for a nice loss and now heavily hedged my longs eagerly awaiting a crash event.

Let me offer you an excuse for missing out on the coming crash. It’s up to you whether you choose to accept it or not.

I had to drop my wife off at the airport this morning and then shortly afterwards I had to pick up my mother in law, who is staying with us in lieu of our trip to Europe. I had been quite busy — barely enough time to absorb all of the news — and now find out in the after-hours the entire regional banking sector has blown up and JP Morgan will soon be tasked with nationalizing the entire banking sector.

I guess when Jamie said “this part of the banking crisis is over” what he was really alluding to is another crisis looming in the foreground.

ALL REGIONALS ARE BLOWING OUT ON NEWS THAT PACW WAS LOOKING FOR A BIDDER. The fact of the matter is, this time it’s really over.

LOOK AT IT.

Data by Stocklabs

This hurts especially because I was heavily hedged 10 mins to the close and decided to go long on a whim based upon my testicles. Like I said, I had been busy and although my allergies are non-existent, the fact that I had to do so many things should more or less excuse me from my disastrous positioning. I might actually ask the NASDAQ and the NYSE for a full refund, based on these events.

My plans entail letting loose some blood tomorrow and then quickly reacting in size to what I see in front of me, which is code word for shorting the market down to zero. I might’ve missed out on the opening salvo of the coming fires, but soon enough I shall partake in the roasting of the heads of my enemies over campfires as if they were marshed mallows for a s’mores treat.

I do not feeeeel very good about all this and I am delighted to see so many banks ripping lower amidst a gargantuan move in the VIX and blowing up of oil — I am dismayed, saddened even, by these turn of events as it directly pertains to missing out on all of the fun.