I got smashed to pieces today, off by 255bps, and I’ve never felt better. It started bad and ended bad and I feel as if I got the big down day out of the way and it’s nothing but net from here.
At the lows of the session, I was down by 3.4%, totally bedraggled in a coffin of my own making — but I never felt the pangs of despair that so readily accompany poor trading sessions. Simply put, I am master of my domain and one bad day cannot stop the train that I am driving because I am driving it straight to the fucking moon.
I know what some of you are thinking “oh fuck off Fly — you’re gonna get bogged again tomorrow.” But you’d be wrong. I closed at 75% cash, 5% $TZA.
If you want to know how I got myself into such a pickle — I increased my position sizes to 10% after being routed at the open. I tried a gambit and it nearly worked — but ultimately it failed and now I get to write about it.
RULE OF THUMB for traders out there. I have unlocked the perfect position size and have done so after experimenting with them for decades. The correct position size is between 5 and 6%. If you go smaller, your prowess is meaningless and you subjugate yourselves to the market. If you go 10%, you get bogged heavily on large down days. The perfect size is, and this is not up for debate, 5%.
Overall, I feel good. My health is very excellent and my mood superb.
US 10yr -11bps – bullish
Nasdaq up – bullish
$BTC above $43,000 – bullish
Large Cap tech up — bullish
Small caps -1.2% – bearish
Every sector is red – bearish
Breadth 36% – bearish
Over 200 stocks down 3% or more – bearish
Early going I was bogged and switched my positions to large capped and 10% weighted in an effort to capture back my lost coin. Initially it worked, as markets legged higher. But I didn’t take profits. I had reduced losses from -2.3% to 1.25% and then cannon balled the fuck lower back to session lows on the renewed downswing. I now stand before you entirely defeated -2.8%.
What should I do now?
I should shut the fuck up is what I ought to do — but I won’t. Because of my greed, I am now down 0.47% for December. This is the important perspective worth remembering. It’s a bad day and it can only get worse if I let it. What I am likely to do is greatly reduce my positions sizes and call it a day. I tried a gambit — but failed. I now risk taking a bad day into a much worse day, providing we cascade lower into the close.
It is very possible we have seen the highs for the year. It’s also possible the market isn’t done going higher. When markets are running on pure adrenalin it’s always guess work and that’s exactly what the market has been doing. We only default to long because market, over time, always trade up. But there are chasms in between that can ruin people and those ruinous events almost always happen when greed goes unchecked and risk aversion is discarded for grandiose visions of a deluded man.
The best course of action, at least in my experience, is t err on the side of caution — even if it means missing out on a rally you felt entitled to.
The US 10yr is down anther 10bps today to 4.18%, down from 5% just 1 month ago. This move is on par with about 4 rate cuts without the Fed even moving. If you think about it, the Fed has escaped the pangs of deleterious inflation and managed to normalize the yield curve without destroying the economy.
Now they get to cut rates and throw the economy back into hyper drive, if they so choose. I hate to see this current regime strengthen, since it’s inherently evil, but it does appear the economic backdrop is increasing for the better.
I haven’t been so lucky, since I was stuck, catacomb’d even, in a pastiche of piece of shit small capped stocks of ill repute. This positioning sacked me, now off by 1.8% in a tape that is green for large caps. The issue is small caps, which are lower by 1% — but I would not worry too much about it. With yields crushed lower, the market is likely to trend up. My issues in regards to my trading account is a one off event and I will fix it. With my longer term strategic account, it is down just 20bps.
In an attempt to fix my losses, I’ve taken on some 10% positions in a variety of larger capped stocks — hoping the Gods will humour me with an early afternoon rally.
I am here attempting to formulate a stratagem for 2024, where I will attempt to swashbuckle into newly forged riches. Without further delay, I present to you the best growth stocks of 2023, all cash flow positive. I have segmented them by sector, and also took license to weed out any names I deemed inappropriate.
The Stocklabs YTD technical score is the final arbiter.
I traded very poorly today, as evidenced by me just making 32bps today. I had gains of 95bps several times and squandered them due my insatiable greed. I now find myself heavily long in the most absurd small capped stocks, but hedged with $UVIX.
I’m frankly greedy and should call it a year, happily rich, +58% for the year. But I have a void inside of me that needs to be filled and I find that when I cartoonishly increase the digits of my brokerage accounts — I temporarily feel better about myself. If my life was surrounded by true innovation or achievement — perhaps I would be content with index funds and charitable donations. But as it stands now, I am neither charitable nor content and seek to explore the emotion called happiness via meaningless trading.
As it stands now, I do not know with certainly where markets are heading next. It can go down into hell roasting me heavily, or perhaps much higher and that would make me happy. I think if it went up and I became happy, I’d take some of the winnings and buy booby traps to place outside the house in the event the fires rise again and nomadic bands of criminals attempt to retrieve surplus food supplies from my house. Or, maybe I’ll just stow the money away and continue to live frugally, only spending large sums at The Shopping Mall or Whole Foods with Mrs. Fly.
I do have an uneasy feeling which means I positioned wrong and will most likely regret every god damned thing I did today. Sorry to have made you read this utterly useless missive about my feelings. Perhaps tomorrow I’ll have something constructive to contribute. I will repeat to you my core beliefs: buy $TSLA $UBER and $BTC every month for the next 2 years and then fuck off.
As markets rest here after pulling out from an early grave this morning, I thought I’d take some time to ponder about the future — this Xmas to be precise. The way I see it, I’ve been good all year. My temperament has been under control and I’ve been extremely generous with my time and my coin. I treat people the way I’d like to be treated, except for the rare occasion I slander someone or tell them to FUCK OFF for asking me stupid questions. But all things considered, and this of course is just my opinion in the matter, I have never been a better person than in 2023.
If you could’ve chanced upon Young Fly in say 2003 — you’d think I was a devil, always up to mischievous things — talking down to people who made less money than me — kept myself secluded from the plebeian class and never even bagged my own groceries, but instead waited for the cashier to do it for me on purpose. That Fly didn’t deserve anything at all; but he somehow managed to make it all the way to today — a classic villain arc story.
And now here I am: packing my own bags at the grocery, very polite to obvious poors, although I am still extremely disdainful to the homeless as I see no reason whatsoever to ever comport with their kind.
At any rate, I am started to annoy myself with this fucking long winded blog.
HERE IS WHAT I WANT TO KNOW.
WHAT THE FUCK IS SANTA CLAUS BRINGING ME FOR XMAS? Is it gains? Will my fucking stocks go higher, or will KRAMPUS whisk them away and make me furious for believing in the magic of the holidays?
+53bps into the final hours, seriously thinking about what I deserve and what I might get.
Last night gold bugs were having a moment with gold at record highs. Amidst the pomp and glory, Peter Schiff was a hero again, the proverbial “I told you so” fucked face after decades of waiting. And then gold collapsed again and no one cared.
On the other hand, $BTC is everything gold was supposed to be and more. The price has melted up above $41,000 and nothing seems capable of stopping it. If you’re still doubting the viability of Bitcoin, you’re purposely deluding yourselves. This is from a person who mocked it in 2013 as it crossed $100.
Today we are seeing large caps down, smalls up very big. There is a massive risk on scenario underway in many of the worst stocks. In my longer term account, I’m up 165bps. In my trading, I’m range bound from +40 to +95bps and extremely on edge about rugs being pulled. I can see it now, the rally revoked and all lost, just like Peter Schiff.
But then I see $CVNA and others and really want to play the video game, enter a few more quarters into the machine to catch some winners.
I’m caught between my greed and fear, encouraged by my competitive nature — fighting my emotions with my intellect. I’m also over dramatizing this for a fucking blog, getting carried away again.
I did a poll last night on X to better understand what sort of returns people enjoyed in 2023 and was, quite frankly, STUNNED by the results.
Look, I know the trading environment has been hard, lots of ups and downs. But for the year, the Nasdaq is +46%, S&P +20% and even the retards in the Russell are +6%. The only way you managed to lose money in 2023 was through sheer obstinance — opting for swing trades with terrible timing tricked and fooled by the prevailing winds. Simply put, you were a slave to your emotions.
I am now going to show you 3 of my accounts.
The trading account is my sandbox, where I play in all day — have fun and really exercise my intellect to its maximum potential. Some might find it difficult to follow all of my day trades and I hoped that members of Stocklabs would cling to methods more than my picks to create their own stratagems. But alas, people are lazy as fuck. The Tesla Focus is my monthly $TSLA allocation account and the Quant is a monthly allocation, where I have zero input. That is straight up machine learning, up just 2% for 2023. I will be making some adjustments to that for 2024.
It did rather well last year, all things considered. Here are the returns for the quant since inception.
And now to my point.
I haven’t blogged about stocks since 2005 for no reason. I didn’t quit my lucrative money management job and take a 90% pay cut just so that I could boast online about how great of a trader I was. If I was you reading me I’d be skeptical too — some fuck named after an insect trying to cajole me into giving him money for some service which I’d likely think was a fucking scam. FUCK OFF FLY!
I will do it for free, to a limited extent, here on iBankCoin or my posts on X. Why are you such a bad trader and what can I do to help? Look at me, charitable and grand. I am here to assist you in staving off the poorhouse, in order to preserve your dignity and home. It’s very possible that if you do not seek my FREE COUNSEL, your wife, kids, and cars will leave you.
You’re probably really good at changing tires or slapping tiles down on the floor. My skill is high finance, understanding the market and using the emotions of people in it to trade in advance of the next move.
Perhaps in 2024 I can be more instructional with my content, attempt to instill some trading and investing tenets instead of talking shit and attempting to convince you to join Stocklabs. However, you really should join, since it’s the best way to access me 24/7. Also, consider the fact that I’m a really fine person, perhaps the best person alive, and Mrs. Fly is out and about spending all of my money on things we do not need. I have a knack for offsetting her consumerism exploits; but as I age and grow closer to the grave — she might in fact outspend me into the poorhouse myself, which would be richly ironic — financial guru beset by heavy losses at the shopping mall.
I had a great day, highlighted by the fact that I was right every single minute of the week, sashaying into the weekend +209bps, made nearly 5% for the week — uplifting gains to nearly +58% for 2023. Things are good and they’re going to stay that way. There is a very specific method to how I am able to perform with such consistency and I’ll never tell you what it is. I’d rather die with it in my head, having known I never told you.
My stated goal is to accumulate as much money as I can and then bury it all somewhere beset by booby traps, killing scores of people from beyond the grave preying on the greed of the living.
This is where you get in the car and press down on the fucking pedal — FULL FUCKING SPEED, without ever even thinking about the brake. This is the time and place where we mount attacks on the bears, burn their villages down with gelatin gasoline ordinance — and watch them scorch to cinders.
Good Sirs —
I stand before you at the apex of my game, the very best I’ve ever been in all of the years living. Through the fires and the tumult, I have increased my capacity for peering into the future. HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD stocks were in play. You want to find stocks with beta over 2. Those stocks were up more than 5% today.
I finished the sesh fully long without hedges, captivated by my own prowess — scalps in hand, knife bloody, musket bellowing with smoke.
What the fuck is an SAA score and why should you even care? Well, fucked face, those are your top ranked stocks by technicals inside Stocklabs. We have our own algorithm to rank stocks. We do it for fundies and technicals. We have one for intra day, which is the default tech score. And then we have the Stocklabs Advanced Algos (SAA), which is an aggregate. The YTD scores above demonstrate the very best stocks, technically speaking, for 2023. We have numerous time frames and I use these tools to track for rotation in markets, to see which areas are firming and getting soft.
Early going, I’m up 88bps, but now mostly cash. I prefer to move to cash after a successful gambit and will largely remain in cash until mid afternoon.
Heading into the final month of December, I have to admit to being bearish. I’m not bearish now and perhaps I’ll chance my mind. But on the whole, December is typically a poor month to trade stocks. Santa Claus rallies rarely materialize into anything of note.
On a separate issue, I might reopen my trading mentorship Programme dubbed CAPSTONE, but only for a few people in 2024. I launched this in 2018 and quickly regretted it because people paid me to not listen to my advice, so I stopped the service. I still have a handful of people left and they’ve listened and done well. This is a 1 on 1 coaching call for an hour, with the goal of making you less retarded.
If interested in being less retarded, email me at flybroker at gmail and we can see if we’re a good fit or not. I’ll likely take only 5, which I figure is a good way to donate my time, in a most Christian and charitable way, for a small fee of course.
All proceeds will of course go to me, which is an excellent cause.
