Ideas Are Worth Billions

Let’s discuss the market.

I can guarantee you, we will see actual job growth inside of 6 months. Write that down, jelly belly. You do not get the type of productivity gains we’ve bee seeing, without job growth shortly thereafter. Playing the market is like piecing together a puzzle. First, the crisis was abated, through Government welfare. Then, the liquidity issue was resolved, with LIBOR and Fed Funds rates drilled to the floor boards. Then, corporate America rebounded, thanks to keen management. Next, the consumer started spending more, on the backs of hope for a positive turn in the economy.

The next big issue is bailing out states and municipalities. Unfortunately, many state and cities are on the verge of bankruptcy, including California and New York. The Federal government cannot afford to let this happen. I suspect, within 6 months, there will be some sort of bailout for troubled states, in an effort to relieve the incredible debt burden. Whatever the solution will be, one thing is guaranteed: The United States will continue to borrow money from others, in order to pay its own bills. As a result, the dollar will be pressured.

As you know, with a weak dollar, commodities will benefit. I cannot stress this enough: do yourself a favor and hedge your declining dollar with something “real.” Go to Jakegint’s blog and learn up on gold/silver. Or, you can stick around here and I will scream POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] in your fat face, until you get the point.

As an aside, I am not confident that Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] will meet estimates. They are very stupid and have no idea how to manage a company. I should have sold months ago. Nonetheless, I will see the company through another arduous conference call. But my patience is running thin.

In short, here are 10 basic material ideas, stolen from The Commodity Index, on The PPT.

Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , [[VALE]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] , Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. [[NGS]] .

Now where’s my 5 billion dollars?

Believe it or not, I do not read the goulash that is disseminated on the internet. I read news, sports and iBankCoin—that’s it.

Blogging is not for everyone. As a matter of fact, I believe 90% of the financial bloggers out there have no business offering financial commentary. Running a website is harder than you think. I have to deal with the technical stuff, the personalities of others and quality of content. Without getting into specifics, let’s just say, I have done a poor job managing the content of this site and that is going to change.

A great man once said: “This isn’t a game anymore.” The truth of the matter is, I will rip out the livers— and eat them raw— of anyone who gets in the way of iBankCoin’s destined future to become the #1 destination for financial commentary. In order for that to happen, change is necessary, starting with me.

So, effective immediately, “The Fly” will no longer be considered “nice.” Gone are the days of unwavering patience, in the dark shadows of sheer ignorance. Gone are the days when I’d talk to strangers as if they were my equal, making believe they had value. Ladies and Gentleman of the interwebs, over the past 6-12 months, I’ve gone soft—losing my ways in the euphoria of the stock market. However, I promise you, from the bottom of my black heart: Omnibus Locis Fit Caedes!

As for this market:

We should be down 200 on the bad employment data, but we’re not. Even though the banks are weak, they’re not down enough to scare guys like me out of the market. Let me be clear: you cannot stop the momentum, spawned off by the will of the Turkey Gods. With every hour that passes, we edge closer to Thanksgiving. I need you to appreciate the significance of this inalienable fact: Wall Street likes turkey and stuffing.

Into this weird tape, I like POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] .

Now go away you stupid, stupid people. Go away.

Short Sellers Trapped on Egregious Bus, Nov. 5th, 2009

They unravel the “dollar carry trade,” in order to lure you into the burning bus. Once in the bus, you are looking around, like “WTF.” Then, it hits you: “holy crap, this bus is on fire.” In a panic, you run towards the front of the bus, in an effort to escape; but it’s too late. By now, this guy is driving it and there is no way—other than death— to get out.

The market is embracing “King Dollar,” as if it meant nothing. Hell, just yesterday it meant everything. This is an important lesson for you trend followers: they are made to be broken. They work until they don’t; you’re rich until you “Nick Cage” yourself into bankrutpcy court.

Stocks are roaring higher, thanks to all of the fodder on the short side. They ignite share prices to the upside, better than any positive earnings report or economic statistic. Look you, I told you before and you chose not to believe me: “The Fly” never loses, ever. My competition, although interesting in a retard in the swimming pool sort of way, are not in the same league as me. I hear voices, ladies and gentlemen. I see shadows, near my favorite urinal— and they chain-smoke cigarettes. To hell in a hand basket, I am a friggin’ lunatic and should be caged for proper and thorough examination.

Luckily for you, I am still free to walk around, without the luxuries of sleeveless dinner jackets. Enjoy it while you can pal; I offer no promises.

In closing, I didn’t win because I am smarter than you; which I am—but that’s besides the point. I won because I blog from the future, all thanks and praise to my plutonium powered time machine.

Top Picks: Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]]

Fly Fun Facts: Today is both Grandpa Fly’s birthday, rest his soul, and my anniversary—bless mine. In other words, today’s melt up was a gift from the stock Gods to me.

One More Thing Before I Go Update: Remember this chart from last week, via The PPT?

Indeud.

I bought 4,000 Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] @ $84.35.

Come on, you must adnit, you are really, really dumb. I mean, it’s almost comical, if it wasn’t so very sad. If I had any feelings, I’d cry for you, on behalf of the lives you are ruining with your investment mishaps. How are your short sales working out for you? I gather the storm is on the horizon, readying to come crashing down on my head, right?

See pal, you look at the market and see cancer. I look at it and see vaccines. Your mind is distorting everything that you see. The prism in which you view things is entirely without honor and dignity. You are not honest with yourself. How in the world do you expect to make money in this market? Get with the program Jack, else you will be shining my shoes.

Everything is going up today; I don’t care what it is. The market CANNOT reverse lower today, for we are rolling downhill now.

In other words, feel free to get drunk and buy stocks until the people on CNBC start doing lines of blow out of Jimmy Choo shoes, live on teevee, while popping Bignac champagne corks.

Top picks: POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]]

Coincidence? I think not.

Blankfein is not on the board of any other public company. He is, however, a trustee of the New York Historical Society and an overseer of the Weill Medical College of Cornell University. Blankfein is also director of the Partnership for New York City and of The Robin Hood Foundation. He is also said to be a Yankees fan.

Think about it. Think.about.it.

The Fed just wants liquidity and they could care less if you get nailed at the pump, the fruit stand or even the hamburger shoppe. The mantra is to continue the path of easiest inflation, in order to “feel good” and avoid making hard choices. It’s politically convenient to pass the buck down the road, ignoring basic mathematics, pertaining to insurmountable debt payments and general expenses. Nevertheless, the stock market is only interested in near term data. If you think about it, the market is pretty darn stupid, representing an ironic cross section of this countries fiscal policy.

Deep down, I am afraid of what this country will look like 10 years down the road. The way I see it, our leadership is too impotent to get anything done. Moreover, the great experiment known as American Capitalism is best represented today by the ponzi schemes of Bernie Maddoff, than the industrious men of the 20th century. Very apropos.

As for this tape:

I am not impressed and would sell, if I was not thinking 2 months in advance. The post Fed sell off may spill over into tomorrow’s opening tick and test the durability of this rally.

Into the bell, I am content with my stocks being up, but disappointed that the rally was stymied by lunatics in burlap hoodies and velcro shoes.

It’s not always this easy. Going into a Fed meeting, it’s entirely possible for the market to reverse and head lower “a couple.” All they have to do is hint that interest rate hikes might be on the horizon and BAM— off with the markets head. However, at the moment, I am willing to accept that risk, in order to participate in the greatest melt up known to U.S. equity history.

In case you didn’t know, we are in a “long only” market, where short selling or hedging is simply a waste of time and money. You may not realize it, but I shame many of you into thinking correctly. You can all thank me later, down the road, when I am stuffed into a pineapple coffin, on my way to the after-life, better known as nothingness.

For you Republican Tea Party “freedom lovers” out there: do not associate today’s melt up with Republican victories in NJ and VA; that would be plain ol’ retarded. The Republicans are idiots, on a wholesale level, while Democrats are mentally disturbed on a retail level. At the end of the day, the market was destined to go higher thanks to The Turkey Gods. So let’s just leave it at that. If anyone asks “hey, why did the market go up today?” Just say: “Turkey Gods,” then hang up quickly.

My investment thesis is supported by three main themes: 4g, foreign and commodities plays—all represented by three neatly organized index’s on The PPT. My investment dollars will continue to flow into names like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , [[CBD]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Vimpel-Communications (ADR) [[VIP]] and Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) [[ARA]] . Within that theme, there are certain risk factors that must be addressed, such as position concentration, industry diversification and cash reserves. Most investors just buy a bunch of stuff, forget about it, without even analyzing the risk elements to their portfolios.

There are no short cuts and there are no magical secrets to getting rich. If you are serious about investing your hard earned dollars into the stock market, have a gameplan and follow through with it, or hire someone who knows how to do it. For the love of stupid grass blades, I know how to cut grass; but I don’t have time for that sort of “slave work.” Self-managing a large sum of money is not for everyone, especially if you are busy running a business.

Into the Fed meeting, I will hold my 12% cash position, hoping for a minor dip. Actually, scratch that thought. Should the market reverse and head lower today, that would be incredibly bearish for equities. We DO NOT want a market reversal today, especially on big volume.

Mashed potato smacks to the face. Cranberry packed punches to the scrotum. Turkey leg kicks to the sternum. These are some of the things—AND MORE—that define The Turkey Gods. You, Sir, are now falling victim to Turkey God attacks and you do not even know it.

As an aside, have you ever noticed that people who use exclamatory statements to get a point across are mentally ill?

Indeud!

Hopefully many of you will stop reading Le Fly, starting today. Let’s be honest with each other: most of you are undeserving of my advice and are better suited for the incoherent dialogue of the yahoo message boards, than fiddling around with the Gods site. A small number of you even sign up for The PPT and still trade like imbeciles. Seriously, it’s time for you to move on and GET THE HELL OFF MY WEBSITE!!!

This is a classy joint, endowed with all of the finest amenities known to man, with regards to websites of course. You can’t drive Ferraris here; but with a little hard work and a “piker free attitude” maybe one day you can buy a car that costs more than 30k.

Yesterday’s purchases are paying early dividends, with outsized gains in TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] and Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] .

Mark my words, we are heading for new 52 week highs and we will fulfill “The Prophecies of The Fly,” closing above 10,500 before the year 2009 ends.

Top picks: POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]]

An egregious loss by old Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] .

Now the good folks from NJ can get back to lower taxes, more spending a more borrowing from China, instead of higher taxes, more spending and marginally less borrowing from China.

Trade accordingly.

UPDATE: I like this post from Uncle Howard. What were you pikers doing in March of 2009?

Here’s what “The Fly” was doing:

Get Ready to Be Rich

Bears Lose a Leg

Fly Buy: KIM

Up, Up and Away

Fly Buys: LOGI, NTGR, TNA

Fly Buy: AXP

And The Wins Continue

F**** You Bears, You’re Dead