There Will Be Letdowns
It’s not always this easy. Going into a Fed meeting, it’s entirely possible for the market to reverse and head lower “a couple.” All they have to do is hint that interest rate hikes might be on the horizon and BAM— off with the markets head. However, at the moment, I am willing to accept that risk, in order to participate in the greatest melt up known to U.S. equity history.
In case you didn’t know, we are in a “long only” market, where short selling or hedging is simply a waste of time and money. You may not realize it, but I shame many of you into thinking correctly. You can all thank me later, down the road, when I am stuffed into a pineapple coffin, on my way to the after-life, better known as nothingness.
For you Republican Tea Party “freedom lovers” out there: do not associate today’s melt up with Republican victories in NJ and VA; that would be plain ol’ retarded. The Republicans are idiots, on a wholesale level, while Democrats are mentally disturbed on a retail level. At the end of the day, the market was destined to go higher thanks to The Turkey Gods. So let’s just leave it at that. If anyone asks “hey, why did the market go up today?” Just say: “Turkey Gods,” then hang up quickly.
My investment thesis is supported by three main themes: 4g, foreign and commodities plays—all represented by three neatly organized index’s on The PPT. My investment dollars will continue to flow into names like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (CTRP: 37.64 -0.87%) , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) (IBN: 40.99 +1.31%) , (CBD: 69.01 +0.45%) , TEKELEC (TKLC: 18.23 -0.92%) , Equinix, Inc. (EQIX: 102.42 +0.35%) , Vimpel-Communications (ADR) (VIP: 18.62 +1.31%) and Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) (ARA: 0.00 N/A) . Within that theme, there are certain risk factors that must be addressed, such as position concentration, industry diversification and cash reserves. Most investors just buy a bunch of stuff, forget about it, without even analyzing the risk elements to their portfolios.
There are no short cuts and there are no magical secrets to getting rich. If you are serious about investing your hard earned dollars into the stock market, have a gameplan and follow through with it, or hire someone who knows how to do it. For the love of stupid grass blades, I know how to cut grass; but I don’t have time for that sort of “slave work.” Self-managing a large sum of money is not for everyone, especially if you are busy running a business.
Into the Fed meeting, I will hold my 12% cash position, hoping for a minor dip. Actually, scratch that thought. Should the market reverse and head lower today, that would be incredibly bearish for equities. We DO NOT want a market reversal today, especially on big volume.
Fantastic post
Don’t have a boring afterlife!
good schtuff, sir le Fly
.
just one thing -
“Also be respectful to the poor and needy, and give them alms and good in right measure according to your
wealth and possessions, and when doing so consider that you will not be able to take one thing to the realm
of the invisible (other world/death-life) from all that you have gathered together in terms of goods and chattels
and possessions and wealth, because there are no pockets in which you could take anything with you.”
finally a post about the FOMC…….it definitely is a make or break(er) short term.
what happened to Gio blog? will he no longer be serving the iBC community?
re your commodity theme:
The International Energy Agency next week will make a “substantial” downward revision to its long-term forecast for global oil demand, a person familiar with the matter said, marking the second year running the group has slashed its view of the world’s thirst for oil.
The forecast of slower growth in oil demand puts the IEA increasingly in a camp of contrarians bucking the popular view that crude demand will grow briskly in a postrecession world. That view holds that long-term demand will grow at a fast clip because of rising emerging-market wealth and consumption in places like China and India.
This prompted me to ask: Why does the Fly like commodities. After all, it is increasingly mainstream to say that oil/commodity prices will just rebound like its 2008.
You don’t need demand when the dollar is being ground into oblivion.
How many times do I have to say this?:
Demand will drop slower than supply
or
Supply will drop faster than demand.
or as is customary today
Demand will drop slower then supply
or
Supply will drop faster then demand.
I wish my grass read “Twilight” so that it would cut itself.
It is the Fed’s mandate to keep unemployment down and I think they will keep rates low for as long as possible so as to not repeat 1936-37. However, to not spook all of these turkey fearing investors and make any sudden movements unwinding Fed positions they, the FOMC, must begin discussions about how and when they will begin to sell/repo assets. They are trying to dampen volatility and stabilize markets, not the opposite, fuckers. I expect constant rates and more talk about eventually raising of rates. Do not fear the tapping of construction-paper turkey hands on the windows while driving past your local elementary school, the Turkey Gods will come.
can’t fucking wait for 10500…..
Could be wrong but I have a feeling we peaked @ 1101 … staying neutral with lots of cash, a few longs but no shorts yet. Think we may see 1078 again but that may be it for awhile …. hope Fly is right, but I’m just having a sandwich for the time being and happy to scalp a stock here and there when the op presents itself.
If 10500 doesn’t develop, Fly should hedge his buy stop on swearing with a sell stop @ 1029 in order to lose that muzzle for the holidays and start the festivities off with Blue Cheer and Black Fridays.
Goldman Sachs posts 98.4% winning percentage in Q, trailing only Le Fly’s 99.3%
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/11/goldman-sachs-gs-q3-winning-percentage.html
Who needs New Jersey when you own the world?
Ron Paul and like minded individuals are our countries only hope!! The mainstream republicans are sociopath criminals while the Democrats, who are also mostly criminal, have a void in their brain when it comes to anything remotely involving economics.
they have one thing in common: politicians
“The Republicans are idiots, on a wholesale level, while Democrats are mentally disturbed on a retail level.”
Thats Rich….did you steal it?…..if not— your Godliness just increased on a E-Commerce level.
This market is for closers only! Period.
just made it up
STEC is getting crushed…. wow
What about MBT in lieu of VIP?
May your appointment with the pineapple coffin be postponed indefinitely.
Classic… Nothing more to say.
Just say “the Turkey Gods,” and hang up quickly.
_____
Holy shit!
(craps kidney)
_______
JG - In your case… “craps gold/silver brick.”
Bring out Merlin.. Poof!
Yeah.. never mind.
Crap, I just burned Jeff’s English Muffins
Fly,
What the fuck, deud. You are no ordninary space alien. PKX penetrating like a mofo. What’s your price target on that, you space alien magician special individual horatio clawhammer!
as you probably can tell, i’m in awe and running out of words to describe exactly what the fuck you really are!
Reading the turkey bones here, I got…
“The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
The bold stuff is what’s new relative to last round’s roll of the bones. Interestingly, we came back pretty smartly after that first 20 minutes of dippery, and TBT’s actually spiked on language that would typically be pretty happy news for bondholders.
who will benefit from a rise in the feds funds rate?
MF Global?
anyone got ideas?
HAL
cute…..
UUP
___
“No foreseeable inflation, blah blah blahddy blah blah….”
Wha??
Do I look like a chump???
I THROW IT ONNA GROUUUUUUUNNDDDDD!!!
________
No forseeable inflation if you bury your head in the sand.
What the hell do you call the run in Equities since March? Or Oil valuations?
Oh well…woohoo! free money! let’s keep this coke party going!
Exactly, and it looks like the market saw straight through the “no forseeable inflation” BS too.
No forseeable inflation, as long as you don’t need to buy gasoline, groceries, healthcare, or anything made overseas.
I have posted to my blog about ibankcoin and other lesser known blogs being responsible for my site’s demise. Fly, please stop stealing traffic from my site and the evilspeculator site. Its simply wrong and unfair. You might find yourself in court one day…
What is happening in this world of blogs? What is happening to xtrends?
Finally….
quick! buy dollars! bullmarkets over!
JUUSSSST KIDDING
(or am i?)
Whuh Happened?
Red or Green Call it
Red -60 Dow
nq gap filled. moving on.
I will have you know that today’s “puke in the cake pan” close was significant.
My GRMN is being fondled by angry tiny men wearing clown suits and pink leaotards.
and they will continue until said ball sack is raw……
just saying.
GPS is going the way of “free” with each turkey leg 8 piece box purchase…..if you know what I mean.
She still has a little run left in her………somebody is going to take these guys out. MSFT…HP….T….They still grunt money. Best of Breed Booyah.
BTW have those properties sold yet by your house…………didn’t think so.
blip
today classifies as a reversal