Getting Food Stupid for Thanksgiving

Shares of Origin Agritech Ltd. [[SEED]] exemplified the recent run in ag names today: stupid. It’s all the same story: massive reallocation of capital from dollars into commodities. The scary thing is, if the dollar should ever surprise everyone and boot stomp higher, the entire commodity space will get obliterated, starting with the bow tie of Jim Rogers, cascading down to “The Commodity King,” Dennis Gartman.

I am long The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , as a long term hold and have no intention of selling at the moment. However, let’s face facts, ag isn’t running because of population growth in China. It is running because of excess liquidity, which is the exact same reason why real estate became a bubble in 2006. Frankly, our great nation is heading for another calamity. This time it will afflict and milk the farmers, sending those stupid bastards to the poorhouse for good.

I have no estimate on this prophecy, only that it will happen, as sure as I am sitting here laughing at you clowns for having such poor taste in business attire.

Keep in mind, most of the following stocks are in melt up mode and will likely trade higher over the short term. All I am suggesting, via dire warnings of calamity, is to avoid FTKing yourself with high prints. If you were curious about how to play ag, here is your guideline.

Ag Chemicals
Syngenta AG (ADR) [[SYT]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[IPI]] , Terra Industries Inc. [[TRA]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company [[SMG]] , [[COIN]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. [[TNH]] and Compass Minerals International, Inc. [[CMP]] .

Farm Construction and Machinery
[[ARTW]] , Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , Deere & Company [[DE]] , Astec Industries, Inc. [[ASTE]] , CNH Global N.V. (ADR) [[CNH]] , Lindsay Corporation [[LNN]] , Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]] , Manitowoc Company, Inc. [[MTW]] , Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]] , Caterpillar Inc. [[CAT]] , Columbus McKinnon Corp. [[CMCO]] and Terex Corporation [[TEX]]

Miscellaneous

Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] , [[YONG]] , Origin Agritech Ltd. [[SEED]] , AgFeed Industries, Inc. [[FEED]] , Agria Corporation (ADR) [[GRO]] , [[CAGC]] , Archer Daniels Midland Company [[ADM]] , Bunge Limited [[BG]] , Innophos Holdings, Inc. [[IPHS]] , Tractor Supply Company [[TSCO]] , Titan Machinery Inc. [[TITN]] , Cadiz Inc. [[CDZI]] , [[CRESY]] , Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. [[CALM]] , ZHONGPIN INC. [[HOGS]], E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company [[DD]] , Landec Corporation [[LNDC]], [[NOEC]] Imperial Sugar Company [[IPSU]] , Cosan Limited [[CZZ]] and Raven Industries, Inc. [[RAVN]] (precision farming!)

I hear all of you late comers clamoring for a piece of the yellow metal action, up at these levels. The time to buy gold was when no one was interested, exactly what Jakegint was doing many months ago. Now that every one is talking about it, the trade has become stupid.

Instead of buying gold near $1,200 per ounce, I’d rather shoot my face off with a howitzer. Sure, the dollar is screwed and we’re all going to die, at some point this century. However, that does not mean it makes sense to buy a stupid yellow metal, which has little to no purpose on Earth, aside from providing criminals with profound reasons to cap someone in the face.

As an aside, it appears the market is “going virgin” into the bell, by denying me of my victory, my rights. No worries kids, we’ll be back at ’em tomorrow with more buy tickets than the world has ever seen.

Top picks: W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] , FBR and U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]]

The market is being stubborn. We all know it’s going to 10,500. However, it seems my enemies are moving against me, in unison, to keep the market under 10,500, in an effort to steal my victory. It’s only a matter of time, until I capture my win.

Regarding the markets:

This is a continuation of the last 8 months. Expect to see asset managers chase stocks into the New Year, sending the Dow well above 10,500. When you take a step back and look at the state of the U.S. economy, it really is sobering. Cities like Detroit and Cleveland are dying, Great Depression style, yet here I am waiting for stock market jubilation.

The truth of the matter is, as discussed with my new buddy Scott Bleier, the market is going up on liquidity, controlled by villains dressed in dark suits, posing as Car Czars.

With my money, emphatically, I like U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , FBR , BigBand Networks, Inc. [[BBND]] and W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] —amongst others.  One thing is for certain, we are no longer in a “melt up” stage. Accurate stock picking abilities are very important at this juncture, as well as proper risk analysis. Despite today’s big jump, numerous stocks are weakening, as the day matures. In my estimation, it is not a good time to add to positions, so early in the day. With sideline cash, before buying, I’d prefer to wait until the end of the day, in order to assess relative strength. And, if we continue to weaken, I’d recommend holding said cash until we dip again, setting up for the ultimate Turkey run.

On Thursday of last week, The PPT pointed to an oversold condition in the market, via the Overall Hybrid Score. These are the results, life to date.

Okay, I am doing some internal restructuring at iBankCoin, with regards to direction of content, which happens to entail cleaning up my dated blogroll. I added a few names, while tossing others. However, the truth of the matter is, typically, I am too busy to surf the web, like some of my competition. Therefore, I have no idea who is worth linking to anymore.

If you are an avid reader of a certain site and want to recommend it for blogroll induction, leave a note in the comments section. Or, if you are a blogger looking for some street cred, leave a note in the comments section, with a link to your stupid blog. Over the next day or so, I will read through all of the recommended blogs and add a few to my blogroll. In addition, I will dedicate a post highlighting the idiocy or splendor of the suggested blogs, depending on my mood, labeling them “worthwhile” or “GIANT WASTE OF TIME.”

In other words, fellow bloggers, choose your link whoring very carefully, for it may be your last.

Classic SNL:

I’m sick and tired of this market not going to 10,500. We were no more than 80 points away from 10,500 last week until that weak/lame sell off. Mostly everything gets me mad, from dumb cellphones to disgusting people to men who get their eyebrows plucked. But nothing vexes me more than denying “The Fly” of what’s rightfully his: victory.

Talk all you want about moving averages and/or SCARY ECONOMIC DATA: I spit on you.

I spit on you, from the the top of the Empire State Building. I spit on you.

As I write this, my stupid neighbor has a bunch of “illegal Mexicans” doing renovations on his house, making all sorts of noise with their silly little tools. I feel like grabbing a hammer and putting a few good sized holes in his house; but I won’t. Instead, I will roam around my house, barking out orders, while ignoring all incoming emails/texts and most definitely phone calls—for I have the symptoms of the “death flu,” and there is nothing remotely fun about that.

In closing, on my eyes, the market will touch down on 10,500, before X-Mas, granting me my only wish, which is: a very vulgar and entirely unnecessary rude iBC Christmas.

Remember the turkey, always.

In the year of the accordion, The Baltic Dry Index will change its name to SCAM, whereby all investors of the underlying equities shall be given 1 bag of rice per 1,000 shares of stock. It will be lauded by President Palin as “fair settlement” for “wourthless assets.”

In the year of the goat, men with muskets will fall into harms way, via blackhole induced time travel. The NY Times will offer extensive coverage of the ordeal.

In the year of the lamb, pestilence will be encouraged to spread through the continental United States, in order to deal with the troublesome “surplus supply” of humans.

And, finally, on the day of November 20th, 2009, only one day after the debut of The New Moon, the market shall rise and fill the lungs of the overzealous with black smoke and iron.

I bought 20,000 BigBand Networks, Inc. [[BBND]] , under $3.65.

Disclaimer: If you buy BigBand Networks, Inc. [[BBND]] because of this post, the economy will “double dip” and zombies will eat your brains. And, you may lose money.

I think we are close to bouncing; but what do I know? Hell, I am only on a 10 year winning streak, despite having wide ranging intellectual impairments, with regards to not believing political campaign literature and commercials. Everyone has their vices. I guess my biggest one is being able to see the worst in everyone. I am a cynic and it helps to fuel the fire in my stomach, which, incidentally, makes me work harder than everyone else.

Aside from the stocks on my radar, there are a number of others that have been resistant to the recent decline. It is incredibly helpful to see what the morons at our local mutual fund companies are buying now, into weakness, since they may be outperforming other equities if the market goes on a protracted decline. Also, consider the following: we are ending the calender year soon and many managers want to chase performance, into the New Year. There is no way, on God’s green/filthy Earth, that the market is going to collapse into the New Year, while sitting on handsome year to date gains.

Here is a short list of names, screened by The PPT, that meet the criteria (min mkt cap 10 billion, hybrid daily change 5%+, % from 52 week high less than 10%):

Lorillard Inc. [[LO]] , Duke Energy Corporation [[DUK]] , The Coca-Cola Company [[KO]] , Kookmin Bank (ADR) [[KB]] , Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (ADR) [[SHG]] , Best Buy Co., Inc. [[BBY]] , General Mills, Inc. [[GIS]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , Abbott Laboratories [[ABT]] and [[MCD]] .

In this screen, same criteria as above but scanning for hybrid weekly change leaders, the following met the criteria:

[[CGA]] , Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. [[WMT]] , Best Buy Co., Inc. [[BBY]] , Visa Inc. [[V]] , TransCanada Corporation (USA) [[TRP]] , General Mills, Inc. [[GIS]] , Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (ADR) [[SHG]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Abbott Laboratories [[ABT]] and Duke Energy Corporation [[DUK]] .

Like it or not, that is what is working now, at least in large cap. All in all, not a bad list and not overly defensive.

My best guess, we strengthen throughout the day, based upon the prospects that the dollar will get its face punched in again.