The Fly Wins Again

Betting against “The Fly” is pure madness.

Two of my top 5 positions with monster better than expected earnings results, indeud.

Corinthian Colleges, Inc. [[COCO]]

COCO Corinthian Colleges beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs and EPS above consensus; raises FY10 EPS and revs guidance (14.34 ) Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $0.44 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 30.2% year/year to $414.3 mln vs the $404.5 mln consensus. Total student starts were 29,156 versus 26,334, an increase of 10.7%. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.45-0.47 vs. $0.44 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $470-480 mln vs. $431.03 mln consensus. “We expect new student growth in Q3 10 of 6% – 8% compared with the third quarter of the prior year. This expected growth rate includes Heald on a pro forma basis. Excluding Heald from the Q3 09 base, but adding Heald students for Q3 10, the projected growth rate would be 18% – 20%.” Co raises guidance for FY10, sees EPS of $1.63-1.68 vs. $1.59 consensus, up from $1.55-1.60 previously; sees FY10 revs of $1.74-1.76 bln vs. $1.66 bln consensus, up from $1.62-1.64 bln previously. “We continue to expect new student growth in fiscal 2010 of 11% – 13% in fiscal 2010 compared with fiscal 2009. This expected growth rate includes Heald on a pro forma basis. Excluding Heald from the fiscal 2009 base, but adding Heald students for fiscal 2010, the projected growth rate would be 17% – 19%.

Cummins Inc. [[CMI]]

CMI Cummins beats by $0.60, beats on revs; guides FY10 revs above consensus (46.94 )
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.36 per share, $0.60 better than the First Call consensus of $0.76; revenues rose 3.4% year/year to $3.4 bln vs the $2.83 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY10, sees FY10 revs of $11 bln vs. $10.23 bln consensus. The co’s fourth quarter results were driven by continued strength in China, India and Brazil, along with a significant increase for on-highway truck engines and components in North America in advance of new emissions standards that took effect at the beginning of 2010… The increase in truck engine and components sales in the United States during the fourth quarter was largely the result of OEM customers buying 2009 engines in advance of the EPA emissions regulations, which took effect on Jan. 1, 2010. Based on current orders and forecasts for the first part of this year, North American truck and bus engine shipments could fall by as much as 80 percent in the first half of 2010, compared to the second half of 2009. This translates into a 50 percent drop in externally reported revenue for heavy-duty truck and medium-duty truck and bus in the first half of 2010 compared to the second half of 2009. That weakness also will affect the Company’s components businesses, although higher Cummins component content on the 2010 engines and improved truck sales in emerging markets will partially offset this drop in demand. In addition, the Company is expecting its Power Generation business to perform at levels consistent with 2009. This late-cycle segment bottomed out in the third quarter of 2009 but has yet to resume strong growth. The weakness in these segments will be offset by continued strong growth in the Company’s distribution business and further improvement in China, India and Brazil. Cummins also expects to see growth across all its business segments in the second half of the year, compared to the first six months.

Source: Briefing.com

I will not brag about my wins today. Instead, I will relish my stay of execution, as if it was my last day to live. Tonight, I shall celebrate and eat like a king. Crabs, lobsters and steaks for everybody, served on golden trays, garnished with 24k gold flowers. At the Casa de Fly, champagne flutes will overflow with Armand De Brignac and cuban cigars will be passed out, as if they were $1 bills.

God willing this rally will continue, allowing yours truly to recapture lost coin. However, I will not rely upon mere “luck by occasion.” Like I said earlier, I will use this rally to upgrade my portfolios with higher caliber equities. Stocks on my “to buy list” include: Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , [[CBD]] and Masco Corporation [[MAS]]

Ten thousand men, dressed in burlap dresses, stood at the edge of a preposterous mountain cliff, readying to do battle with several million patriots of humanity. Then, all of a sudden, my IT guy (Vincenzo) crashed his horse drawn wagon into what looked like a wall of burlap. A tremendous accident indeed, as 100 barrels of pure 100% extra virgin olive oil—rummaged out from the back of Vincenzo’s wrecked wagon—spilling all over the “Burlap Princes of Darkness.” The ground became so slippery, they began to fall on top of one another. All you could see was the sparks from the burlap dresses crashing with one another. The friction became so intense, a fire broke out, which was, shall we say “stoked nicely,” by all of the excess extra virgin olive oil massed on the ground. The fire spread rapidly, as Vincenzo looked on in horror, while eating a french baguette drenched in gravy.

Top picks: Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Cummins Inc. [[CMI]]

Fuck you Mother Market. I will not be hoodwinked into believing that this is the bottom, not today. As much as I believe a beleaguered Greece is an absurd reason to sell stocks, people want a reason to sell—just because.

Nevertheless, I remain 90% long, into the teeth of this decline. I’ve given back all of my early 2010 gains and will allow for another 5% of downside, before doing some wholesale selling and/or initiating some short positions. If I were to short stocks, I’d target weak CRE names.

Should the market bounce here, I will look to sell some of my weaker names, in order to raise cash and/or add to higher quality names that now trade at a discount.

Bottom line: You should not be delving into low quality, small cap names down here. Like I mentioned several weeks ago on The PPT, now is the time to GET BIG and bulk up on big cap/ high quality equities, not Chinese lotto/fucking retarded gambling names. If the market dives, you will not get “napalmed” in big cap, only slightly destroyed. However, if this pullback is for real and you have a portfolio filled with small cap bullshit, you will get wiped the fuck out. No joke. Do yourself a favor, pal, GET BIG or get out.

Peter Rotesque was a 40 something year old wall street professional, with big plans to expand his burgeoning career, catering to the super wealthy. He lived in an atypical upscale suburban community. He had 4 cars, 2 homes, 1 boat, 4 kids, 1 wife and 1 mistress. His work ethic could only be described as “obsessive psychotic,” where he was a partner at an up and coming NYC investment bank, overseeing and cracking a stiff whip on an underpaid and brazenly disloyal staff of 25. Everything was fairly straightforward with Peter, with exception to one major character flaw: aside from Peter’s obsessive work ethic and infectious charm, Peter was also a fiery kleptomaniac aka “great collector of other people’s things.”

It all started one day, while at a business meeting. His devout client, Bradley Hamlargular, of 20 years had met him for lunch at The Four Seasons restaurant in NYC. While discussing a multi-million dollar deal over $25 quail egg salads, Bradley politely excused himself from the table for exactly 4.5 minutes, so that he might relieve himself inside of the Four Seasons bathroom. In a mistake that can only be described as “unfortunate,” Mr. Hamlargular left his prized Grayson Tighe Limited Edition rollerball pen on the table— with Mr. Rotesque as its primary caretaker until he returned.

To be continued…

As you waste your weekend away, gawking at dumbtube and internet porn, “The Fly” is reading research reports. See pal, THAT’S the difference between a person such as yourself and me. I will opine on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] Sunday or Monday, dependent on how futures are looking. Good stuff.

A lot of you are worried about losing money and some of you are happy as pigs in shit, due to your short positions rising in value. For the most part, the unwashed masses on this site are being rather polite, with regards to my recent set backs. Perhaps it’s a sign of maturity, or the fact that I have imprisoned over 200 neerdowells throughout the years. Nevertheless, I appreciate the sentiment.

Some of you are asking about my breaking point, the line in the sand if you will. I opt to give my answer in the form of a simple mathematics exercise.

Joe Blow starts off 2009 with 100k. At the end of 2009, due to market gains, Joe Blow has 190k. During the first week of 2010, Joe Blow extends his gains by another 12%, sending his account value up to about 212k. MUCH TO HIS CHAGRIN, in ghoulish fashion, the market staggers him in the subsequent weeks after his great start, effectively erasing all of his 2012 gains.

His account stands at 190k.

Now ask yourself, is Joe Blow hurting?

My line in the sand is the proverbial “180k.”

Come Monday, investors will be introduced to a 2008 style “faces of death” tape. We’re dumping out here and I am going down in this fucker, bar mitzvah party in Tehran style.

Eat good and hearty over the weekend and enjoy the wife and kids. Come Monday, we are going to be jumping out of cylinder shaped windows onto the traffic down below.

Off to see about a gourmet hotdog lunch.

I get too excited. When shorting stocks or going long, I tend to get, shall we say “overly dramatic” on occasion, which inevitably leads to thorough annihilation. Granted, I did not buy into today’s hype; but I should have sold. On Jupiter’s stone, this fucking market is broken and is dismantled by men in burlap dresses.

Tech names are being shredded, based upon nothing. It’s quite laughable. But then again, it isn’t a game.

Commodity stocks have reversed and are getting smashed into microscopic pieces. Apparently, Mother Market isn’t pleased with plain ol’ small anymore.

Like I said last night, the market has one or two really bad days left in it, before a sharp bounce. Much to my chagrin, this mornings GDP data got me all excited. I was walking around the office, all huffy and puffy and shit—throwing lit cigars at the men and glasses of orange juice on the ladies. For me to sit here, in my luxurious chair, and tell you “go eat a sandwich” would be a lie.

You should not be eating anything when your fucking net worth is being dismantled by men in burlap mini skirts, unless of course we’re talking triple bacon cheeseburger with a fried egg on top.

Maybe JAKEGINT was right, when he said “the market needs the dollar to get clown raped by hamburglar impersonators, before this motherfucker can go higher again, son.”

Perhaps.

All I know at the moment is pain. Not Clubber Lang, knock you out in the 2nd round, take your fucking belt and steal your woman pain; but instead, Ivan Drago, I will break your face with one punch then shame your entire country with your loss calamity pain.

Stocks are most certainly for asshats only

The dollar is rising because the economy is kicking ass, as evidenced by 5.7% Q4 GDP gains, and because Europe sucks long rope. Today’s numbers should buoy the markets several hundred points, considering how scared everyone is and the high level of short sellers permeating leadership stocks. However, for some odd reason, the market is full of ball-less cowards. These so called men are nothing more than eunuchs, unable to muster a respectable rally on fantastic data, on this frigid NYC morning.

I’d bet my face that Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] breaks $100 today and re initiates coverage on destroying the Cramer crowd who is short the name. In addition, I like the look of Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] and Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , down at these levels.

All of my rhetoric and Godly market timing will go to waste, unless of course the people managing the 401k money get off their lazy asses and get long in size here.

PNC Financial Services [[PNC]] is your market leader today. Trade accordingly.

Here’s your spark bulls. Run with it.