Ahm gonna take this itty bitty world by storm…

And ahm just gettin’ warm….

_______________________________________________

Just in case any of you are thinking this recent pullback has been anything but a dollar play, have a look at this piece by ETF Trader (and by extension, The Financial Times).   Yes, that’s an $8 billion plus short on the Euro, and that’s only what we peons are seeing.  It could be a lot worse, or it could be all for show.  

What we do know is that the Euro is just another failed fiat waiting to happen.   Whether it occurs before the dollar (likely) or after, they all meet the same end, in tears.  Right now, the dollar is strengthening against it, after dropping to test support at the $80.09 level, and back to $80.34, after opening at $80.40.  

As you know, I think anything over $80.20 is a bad sign, and that combined with the large selling on strength from Fridays trade (some $675 million in the SPYs), we may be in for testing that 1,035 level on the (SPX: 0.00 0.00%) after all.    The silver stocks, after showing some promise this morning, are tipping their heads in obeisance to a further weakening in the POS (currently hanging above it’s $15.03 open at $15.11) and even the POG (currently $1,065.60).

I will be focussing on opportunistic gold plays today, as I’ve gotten quite a bit of silver in (AGQ: 43.70 0.00%) and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 13.58 0.00%) the last couple of days, and only got half my (GDX: 40.78 0.00%) calls on Friday.  I’ll be looking at some of that under $41 and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV: 12.82 0.00%) on any more weakness like this morning (which I missed, dammit).    I may bend for more (EXK: 3.15 0.00%) as I still have room for another 2k shares in that name.

The overall word is caution, but be ready to jump on an alert, because if Soros or some other whale wants to squeeze these Euro shorts, it’s going to be five alarm time for the PM’s.   Same will be true if the Euro really cracks, although I’m not sure the effect on gold will be as harsh as the effect on my poor silver horde.

Best to you all.

_______________________

A Really, Really Good Football Player vs. A City’s Karma

______________________________________

That’s the way I see this Bowl, btw.   As I’ve mentioned, I think the Vikings should be playing in the game, but for the asteroid-like karma of the City of New Orleans.   Let’s see if that’s enough to beat probably the greatest QB in the game, and maybe… ever.

Picking up after Manning just took the Colts 95+ yards with a mixture of passing and clutch running from Addai.   Already looking kind of bleak for the Aints, but we know they have a fast strike offense, so there’s a lot to go, heah.  

Commercials thus far — kinda lame.   The Go Daddy guys need to pack it in with the exact same commercial from last year.  For that they paid $2.5mm?  End of First Quarter… Colts 10, Saints 0.    the rest of the game will be continued in comments.   Feel free to add your two drachmas.

____________________________________

Mr. Limm, Out on A Limb
________________________
The dollar is currently right in the “crunch zone” at $80.24 as I type this. As you recall that was right in my “Wall of Death” from the previous dollar chart, as it ran into two separate strong fib lines:

So, today, on any sign of weakening in the $USD (you can keep an eye on it at (UUP: 23.64 0.00%) if you can’t get the DXY quote), I will be adding to my (AGQ: 43.70 0.00%) position one more time.

If we break through this area on more dollar strength, I will be hedging my positions again, and likely cutting down on some of my Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 13.58 0.00%) calls.

Best to you.

_____________________________________________

 

Freeeeeeee-ddddoooooooooooommmmmmmm!!!

________________________________________________
Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here, albeit with my guts wound around a spool and looking forward to that “Can’t-Get-Here-Soon-Enough” beheading.

I kid, of course.  But I didn’t want you to think I had abandoned you all, or my positions.  No, I’m sticking hard here, and have not deployed any more money today, although a couple of things are looking very tasty. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD: 42.49 0.00%) is one of them, already up more than a buck off it’s lows of the day. I may dabble in that one more time before the day is out.

(AGQ: 43.70 0.00%) is presently suffocating me, by means of a large rock laid across my larynx, choke-out style. This is the way this stock trades, though, so you have to be ready for “double draw-downs” as it is a double ETF. I will be looking to add that final 600 shs here, however, and it may be today or tomorrow. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 13.58 0.00%) is equally as ugly, but has (as a kind reader mentioned on the previous thread) quite a reputation from pulling back hard off of highs. Whether it gets all the way to 35%, I cannot say, but I’m also waiting to see how that on develops.

For golds, RGLD aside, Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) (EGO: 11.85 0.00%) is performing the best of my three cabelleros. Next IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) (IAG: 13.31 0.00%) and dragging up the rear is the less liquid Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV: 12.82 0.00%) . I continue to think Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV: 12.82 0.00%) will provide the best long term bang for your buck, but I’d only nibble until a turn is confirmed.

The dollar (DXY) is most frustrating here, as it ran all the way to $79.97 only to fall back to the $79.84 region. I was hoping it would clear out all the way to $80.50 or so, but it looks like we may have to wait on that action again, at least until tomorrow.  

There’s also a possibility that $79.97 was the high water mark, but I’m not counting any of those quail’s eggs yet.   

Note — 1,035 or so is a 10% retrace on the S&P (or $103.5 on the (SPY: 105.89 0.00%)  – that could be a nice target for any resumption in the overall cyclical bull.  I imagine we’ll all be pretty exhausted at that point.

Hang in there, folks.  

________________________________________

 Special Update:  

_________

 

Best to you all.

Canucks Took this German Bunker, Back in the Day
______________________
Yeah, so it increasingly looks like we got head faked on Monday, and the dollar (DXY) is going to make another try at that $80.20 level we talked about last week.  The dollar is up 35 cents as I type this to $79.73, after dropping briefly below $79 earlier this week.  Que sera, sera. 

I will continue adding to (AGQ: 43.70 0.00%) , as I want to get at least another 600 shares for my “full compliment.”  I will likely add opportunistically to other positions as wel, as I still have a little under 20% of dry powder left to deploy.    The gold stocks seem to be hanging in a little better than my bastard-children silvers, but that’s to be expected.  I am extremely pleased at the results of Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD: 42.49 0.00%) today — beating revenue estimates by almost 30% and earnings estimates by over 20%.    That should bode well for my portfolio going forward, even if we do take a bit of a “dollar bite” today.

Again, not so sound like a broken record, but I think it’s very important to concentrate on these key names at these important inflection points — which is where I still firmly believe we have arrived.   On the gold’s, Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV: 12.82 0.00%) has shown nice strength, as has Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) (NXG: 2.46 0.00%) , Exeter Resource Corp. (XRA: 7.33 0.00%) and Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) (AUY: 10.01 0.00%) should all be holding in here.   If you can get Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD: 42.49 0.00%) in the red today, it is a gift, imho.    All silvers should be bought opportunistically, of course, and I continue to love Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 13.58 0.00%) , (EXK: 3.15 0.00%) and (PAAS: 20.74 0.00%) here.  Also, you may want to keep an eye on (PAL: 3.62 0.00%) and (PTM: 17.45 0.00%) for platinum exposure.

So wear your burlap today for fashion’s sake, and maybe even add a cap fashioned out of old tuna cans for “extra penitant” effect, but be sure to sew extra pockets within your sack so you can sidle into your local gem & coin dealer and slip some cadged Morgan dollars and Canuckistanian Maple Leafs  into them as your youngest son fakes an epileptic seizure in the lobby.

Best to you all, my bunkermates.

________________________________

_________________________

In fact, it may only be around temporarily this morning, but silver has dropped about 1% this morning in early trading (due to a slight uptick in the dollar) while gold has held pretty much flat. That puts our new Gold/Silver ration at a hair over 67.2x , and I So I’m going to take this opportunity to load up on some more select names in bullion (AGQ: 43.70 0.00%) — and in miners, with (EXK: 3.15 0.00%) , (SVM: 5.10 0.00%) , (CDE: 13.55 0.00%) , (PAAS: 20.74 0.00%) and yes, even Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (SLW: 13.58 0.00%) again.

I will not be pulling the trigger all at once, as I would like to see if we get more dollar strength in the day, but given the strength of gold in this downdraft, I don’t believe this divergence will hold for very long. Either gold will drop down to a low 60’s POG/POS ratio, or silver will rise. In either case, I think our safer bet will be silver again.

Also, I may dabble in some more (PTM: 17.45 0.00%) here, which has shown very good relative strength through this whole dollar strenghthening period, as has the platinum/palladium miner (PAL: 3.62 0.00%) .

Best to you all.

_____________________________________________________