Fake Jobs Numbers Sold to You

Well, the faux jobs report, as some are calling it, has led to a stiff sell-off. I’m going to refrain from displaying any semblance of emotion and remind you that all sell-offs are opportunities, mind you, to buy back in. Nothing has changed and counterfeit money is still out there, waiting to bid up stocks.

At the moment, I am down about 1%. I don’t feel great about my positions, since most of them are designed to be trades. I have little conviction in most of them, which is fine on a short term basis. However, longer term, I can’t own a bunch of high-risk, high-beta, plays and expect to live comfortably without fear.

I’ve designed a fairly good system for investing, one that entails low risk, moderate reward. I keep tight leashes on most of my positions and book profits fast, unless the idea is something I feel passionate about, like former positions in MVIS, FTK, WNR, YELP etc. Every once in awhile a light bulb goes off and I know there is money to be made. Understand something, I don’t think money will be made, I know.

I’d be telling you tall tales if I said “I know stocks are going higher from here.” I’ve defaulted to a long only bias only due to recent history. Plainly, I have no fucking idea what the market will do next week. According to The PPT, we are overdue a 1-3% correction. Not a big deal.

In summary, don’t panic, this is normal. Eventually the market trades up, so go eat a few sandwiches, guzzle down some vintage wine, and unwind.

After my KMB sale, I am 15% cash, a meaningful amount in a very bullish tape. I’ve been saying this for awhile now: we’re due for a rest. Our algos were flagging OVERSOLD signals for a number of inverse ETFs yesterday. Here is the data.

DOG (6 mo algo)

DOG (12 mo algo)

And it is signaling the decline in the dollar is about to stop, which bodes poorly for risk.

UDN

If that’s the case, why am I 85% long and why did I buy ANR yesterday? In short, because I could. I do not cede my decisions to a computer. I use both data and intuition to make decisions. There is a reason why quants blow up. It’s because they forget how to think for themselves. I outsource much of the grunt work of combing through numbers to The PPT. But when it comes to the art of investing, it’s all me.

Still, I may lose money on ANR and I might end up regretting being 85% long at the top end of the range. But I am pushing the envelope. How else am I supposed to make triple digit returns, as promised in this year of generosity, if I am not willing to lose a little to make a lot?

Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, accused Obama of manipulating the jobs numbers today. I don’t know. What do you think? Does the white house really have control of economic statistics?

Lastly, today is the one year anniversary of the passing of Steve Jobs. Say what you want about his personality, but he will be missed. As a small business owner and big thinker, even bigger dreamer, I have nothing but respect and admiration for what Steve accomplished during his time here with miscreants.

Obama could not answer any of Romney’s charges because he didn’t have his teleprompter. But he was able to jerk the employment numbers today, effectively pancaking the unemployment rate to 7.8%. It’s so funny how everything is viewed cynically and accepted as “part of the game.” Perhaps I am being a bit too harsh on the Big O. After all, I’ve prospered during his administration and I really, really like his Federal Reserve chief.

Futures are way up and the fucktards who are long 7 stocks and short 8 are going to watch me bank coin again.

ULTA for the $100 roll.

OSG for stiff boat drinks.

Thank me later.

During last night’s debate, much to my surprise, Romney came out aggressive in favour of coal. I am sure the toothless, overall wearing, guitar playing, rednecks threw their beer cans in the air upon hearing it, as a classless sign of southern solidarity with the monstrous mormon. Since Romney won, rather decidedly, coal stocks are screaming higher today, in hopes that a mormon administration will be a favourable development to the black lung crowd.

I sold ANR three weeks ago near $8.80, a rare top-tick of sorts. And now I am buying that fucker back.

I sold out of my largest position, KMB, and dropped half of the proceeds into ANR. It’s now a big position of mine and I am going to make a fucking killing on it.

I do regret selling WNR, HFC and ALJ. As I write this, the Brent-WTI spread is upwards of $20 and 321 crack spreads are north of $36, with gasoline soaring today. The price of gasoline is now retailing for $4.40 per gallon. As you get mugged at the pump, the crude is just sitting at Cushing, OK doing nothing.

Let’s not even discuss the oil being extracted from the Eagleford Shale. There is a desperate demand for pipeline infrastructure in this country, to get the crude and distillates moving. However, the EPA hamstrings them, fucking you directly at the pump.

As a result, refinery related stocks are enjoying a renaissance. HFC, TSO, WNR, CVI, DK, PSX, MPC and VLO are the new bankers. They are the guys stealing from you, with the help from the government of course. Truth be told, running a refinery business is capital intensive and they need to eat too. Nonetheless, do not complain when gasoline is retailing for $6.00+ when the war with Iran starts.

We have the oil and the capacity to refine it. We just don’t have the infrastructure to move it around–all thanks and praise to your local fucktard politicians.

I didn’t think the market would turn so quickly. Nevertheless, I am back to banking stupid coin again, tossing bearshitters down elevator shafts, having horses kick them in the fucking face.

Commodities are decidedly higher. Romney trounced Obama in the debates. Dare I say, NAK is going the fuck higher today, a big middle finger to the devils at the EPA, who are so interested in saving “the environment.”

FUCK THE ENVIRONMENT.

May we all perish from the Black Lung, as rich as can be, addled with rare types of cancer– but exceedingly wealthy from our prospecting fortunes.

Top picks: DDD, OSG, PPC and JIVE

Happy Anniversary Mr. and Mrs. Obama.

You can read my view points here.

It was embarrassing for Obama.

I’ll be live tweeting this shit from Twitter.

@The_Real_Fly

While we all sit here and wait for the “next housing boom”, the market is giving us fits. Only thanks to my supreme standing with the stock gods, I am enjoying a +1% day. Everyone else, for the most part, are losing their shirts.

I won’t take too much of your time, as I am sure you need to prepare supper. I understand people from housing tenements like to eat supper before sundown, to avoid getting shot in the streets, in search of potatoes and macaroni.

We have the Presidential debates tonight, so that should be fun. Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @The_Real_Fly, where I will make fun of both candidates, furthing embedding myself on the CIA’s “to kill” list.

I like boats, chicken and 3-D printers, OSG, PPC and DDD. In addition, I like APKT, SVU, KMB and ESRX. My top 3 positions by size are KMB, DDD and ESRX. As you can see, “The Fly” is a rather conservative gentleman, who never delves into intoxicants during work nights or disgraces himself for whores, unlike many of you. I tend to uphold traditional standards, living life as it was lived 10,000 years ago (no caveman). The stock market is nothing more than an avocation for me, as my true passion lies in building Orbital Space Cannons (OSC) and amassing fortune and power on a governmental scale.

Long term readers of the site understand that “Winship” is my middle name. I shall not be denied and time adheres to my caprices.