Well, the faux jobs report, as some are calling it, has led to a stiff sell-off. I’m going to refrain from displaying any semblance of emotion and remind you that all sell-offs are opportunities, mind you, to buy back in. Nothing has changed and counterfeit money is still out there, waiting to bid up stocks.
At the moment, I am down about 1%. I don’t feel great about my positions, since most of them are designed to be trades. I have little conviction in most of them, which is fine on a short term basis. However, longer term, I can’t own a bunch of high-risk, high-beta, plays and expect to live comfortably without fear.
I’ve designed a fairly good system for investing, one that entails low risk, moderate reward. I keep tight leashes on most of my positions and book profits fast, unless the idea is something I feel passionate about, like former positions in MVIS, FTK, WNR, YELP etc. Every once in awhile a light bulb goes off and I know there is money to be made. Understand something, I don’t think money will be made, I know.
I’d be telling you tall tales if I said “I know stocks are going higher from here.” I’ve defaulted to a long only bias only due to recent history. Plainly, I have no fucking idea what the market will do next week. According to The PPT, we are overdue a 1-3% correction. Not a big deal.
In summary, don’t panic, this is normal. Eventually the market trades up, so go eat a few sandwiches, guzzle down some vintage wine, and unwind.
83 Responses to Fake Jobs Numbers Sold to You
LOCK is indeud sucking your cock.
We will be near or above 1500 by the end of next week. This is not a guess.
It was written.
No. Go buy long dated out of the money calls on VXX.
What is your few on the LifeLock IPO, Zombie Fly?
Fly, you seem to be having a shit hemmorrhage about the 7.8% unemployment number, just like the Limbaughs of the world, who can’t stand to see any good news.
And do you support Deadbrained Elaine Chao (former labor secretary for Dimwit Bush), who wants defense contractors to issue layoff notices before the even know if there will BE defense cutbacks (the fiscal cliff may not occur)?
What fun seeing GOPs spinning away, as the Obama Recovery continues!
hahahahahahaha The Obama Recovery?
Better watch your branding – Limbaugh would print that on a bumper sticker in a heartbeat.
I would be curious to see how they sampled to discover that 800,000 +/- new jobs were created – particularly when just last month we learned a record number of people were out of the labor force.
Where did someone say that 800,000 new jobs were created last month?
The Labor Department reported that 114,000 new jobs were created in September.
“The drop was due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey of households showing that 873,000 more people had jobs than in the previous month. That was the biggest one-month gain in more than nine years.”
Largest monthly gain since Jan ’03. Take a look at what the market did after Jan ’03 – straight moon shot until ’07. So, we are either on the cusp of a gigantic fucking turnaround or these numbers are bullshit. I don’t believe it because, frankly I don’t see it.
Do not confuse the poor girl with numbers and suchness.
No. The numbers are real!! They hired that many salesmen for the new version of the Obamaphone now being produced in top secret by FoxConn.
OK …Mulitple choice..
Any person actually taking those numbers for real is
A: Drunk on the KoolAid
B Sitting close enough to Al Gore to enjoy his olf.
C.Totally blind to the S.H.O.M.P. the clearly indicates absolute failure of the current administration.
D. Cannot add and actually helped fabricate those numbers.
E. All of the above
Look, we saw this same shit last year. And the year before that.
They get all wet about the great recovery that’s taking place, they overextert the numbers after the labor force drop off, they underestimate the effect season jobs have on the uptick, then come OH sometime next March, they’re left looking like complete jackasses.
How is this not predictible yet??
Just wait ’til next March this time. The economy will be in an unmistakable recovery by then & the stock market will be at least 10% higher.
Although the recovery is taking longer than we would like, due to Republicans in Congress trying to eff it up at every turn to keep Obama from being re-elected, it is still coming along.
Really? It’s that simple is it? Evil Republicans are “holding up” the big O’s brilliant ideas – oh if only they had gotten out of the way sooner of his wonderous management capacity and unmistakable track record
This economy has a debt noose around its neck. But hey it’s not like I’ve heard “by this time next year…” for three straight years
Dominator here, profitable IBC Member.
I like the prez, you don’t. That’s fine, we disagree. But this guy is damned if he does, and damned if he dosen’t. The number went down and he gets bashed. If the number went up to 8.5%, he’d be getting bashed on that too.
He’s not perfect, but he’s still a pretty good prez.
True he does take it all ways.
We would just like honest numbers. Pretty simple really. These are BS.
It is really simple. Honest data, I’d add, but even then, won’t it still get manipulated. Honesty. I’d like it; at least it’s a starting point.
You really do need to get out more!
COMMENTARY NUMBER 473
September Employment and Unemployment, August Construction Spending, PCE Deflator
October 5, 2012
Phony Unemployment Rate Drop? Here Is How It May Have Happened
With Deliberately-Inconsistent Numbers, Only the BLS Can Clear-Up the Reporting
September Unemployment: 7.8% (U.3), 14.7% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats.com)
September Payroll Gain Was Statistically Insignificant
M3 Annual Growth Notches Higher Again
PLEASE NOTE: The next regular Commentary is scheduled for Friday, October 12th, covering September PPI and the August trade balance.
The Special Commentary reviewing economic, inflation and systemic conditions is planned for next week, the week of October 8th. As publication nears, more-specific timing will be posted in the schedule box on http://www.shadowstats.com.
Best wishes to all — John Williams
Opening Comments and Executive Summary. The August-to-September change in the headline unemployment rate almost certainly was not a 0.3% decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) knows the reported change in unemployment was wrong—other than by extreme coincidence—and it knows what consistent reporting actually showed. Only politics prevents the BLS from releasing the correct number, whether the unemployment rate actually declined, held even, or rose as predicted by consensus forecasters. The lack of transparency here in the data preparation allows for direct political manipulation.
The problem is that the BLS knowingly has been preparing the seasonally-adjusted headline unemployment numbers on an inconsistent and non-comparable basis for some time. The September number was prepared using a different set of seasonal factors than was used in coming up with the August number. The reporting difference can be large, when proper consistent month-to-month changes are used.
For example, consider the 0.4-percentage-point decline in the headline unemployment rate for November 2011. That drop in unemployment of that magnitude never was real. Once per year—with the release of December data—the seasonally-adjusted monthly unemployment rates are revised and restated, so as to be consistent. In December 2011, that 0.4-percentage-point drop in November was revised to a 0.2-percentage-point decline. As noted in the text excerpt following, this circumstance allows for outright manipulation of the data, with no cross-checking possible of the unpublished numbers being revised and re-revised every month. The December 2012 restatement of today’s headline unemployment decline will not be published until January 2013, well after the presidential election.
Indeed, with the Fed’s QE3 formally tied to bringing down the unemployment rate, and with presidential election one month from tomorrow, an unexpected and unusually-large 0.3-percentage-point plunge in the headline unemployment rate might raise more than a couple of eyebrows. The BLS has the correct number and could publish it. It had to calculate a consistent August 2012 number in order to estimate September 2012. Now would be a particularly good time for the BLS to come clean on its unemployment estimates, even if the numbers “confuse” data users. Avoiding such confusion is the stated reason as to why the BLS does not publish comparable monthly headline unemployment rates.
Time for the baseball playoffs.
Rays didn’t make it but had a good time at Fenway.
Rookie hazing a couple of weeks ago as shot by David Price (pitcher).
I guess this is yet another political split here. Diehard Repubs can’t believe anything good could happen to the economy during Obama’s administration. They will scour the web trying to find rationales for why every single item of good news is suspect. These turn out to be rationales written by other diehard Republicans, of course, selecting the facts that match their beliefs & ignoring those that don’t.
And bringing out their hatchet men like Jack Welch – the guy that FUCKED UP GE – to try to throw out shit to discredit BLS numbers.
The Obama Recovery rolls on!
Yeah for the Obama Recovery!
All this conspiracy talk in the BLS #’s reminds me of kids in a school yard fight , when it is released as good, the other team does not like it and calls them liars, “fake numbers”!, if the numbers are released as bad, then the numbers are real, “see I told ya he’s no good”. This kind of talk gets repeated over and over again with each team taking turns in selective trash talk. Mr Thaler below puts it most elegantly.
This isn’t a left/right issue. It’s a common sense issue. If Romney gets elected, the economy is going to keep on sucking then too.
Does it look like 7.8% unemployment to you?
Not many people would deny that the suckier the economy is, or appears to be, the more electable Romney would be. Do you deny that?
I guess it all depends on altitude, on election day. ; )
Probably. Most people would also argue that the odds of Obama not knowing that are slim. Or that the chance of such a convenient improvement (below 8%) happening 1 month out from elections is absolute horse shit.
I would just like us to stop pretending like we don’t all already know this number has been mangled into obscurity
On another level and ragardless (yes some here seem to be on the rag since the debate) of any actual or announced improvement in employment numbers, one should take into account that the jobs being created are for the most part not able to pay a living wage, I have talked with “folks” all over the Great Lakes region who have found work but at poverty level wages rather than the good paying job they lost. People who made $18-$25 per hour with bens are now enjoying a new Obamaphone and wages in the $10 per hour range and no bennies.
Sounds like sour grapes … If Romney is elected and the economy does go into cruise control, are you idiot elephants really gonna say that the turnaround is due to Romney being in office 3 months … like blaming Obama for the 800K job losses three months into his first term? Your IQ’s are more suspect than the employment data … Ha!
Nope. And I dare you to find a time when I ever blamed Obama for the 2009 drop.
Here I thought it was Bush’s fault.. That was Wednesday night though…
I miss Bush. Damn it if only he were still President today, I can’t wait for another Republican President so I can stand on all your necks and squeeze every last cent to put in my piggy bank. Screw creating jobs, I’d rather hold my money. Hail Bernie Nadoff, Enron, Lehman, and capitalism all the way. Ayn Rand bitches.
And of course making up many “facts” along the way.
‘It’s Outrageous’ to Say the Jobs Number is Manipulated”: EPI’s Mishel
I’ll be back when the election is over.
All I know is that after an election, it’s like etch-e-sketch
Bureau of Labor Statistics responds to charge that employement data are manipulated:
Here is one for you Frog, coming straight from the White House – they aren’t even hiding the manipulation!
They “requested” that Lockheed hold off on their massive layoffs until after the election, lest they find themselves losing numerous govt. contracts in the future, if you know what I mean.
This apparently is against the law, something about giving employees 60 days notice when entire plants are closing.
And you wonder why people don’t trust the government. There should be no “massaging” of the numbers, you might as well just fucking fudge them to whatever you please. Instead, they “massage” them and tell themselves “hey, these are the numbers we actually came up with, we aren’t lying”.
Part of the fiscal cliff they are trying to hide. And it is against the law but unfortunately our Justice dpt is not concerned with laws that go against the agenda. (Laws??!! We don’t need no steenking laws!!)
Sequestering is the term used.
Bid the Market up with more free money and fudge the numbers a little more then usual leading into elections, just washington as usual I would be shocked if that didn’t happen.
..so, what’s left in their tool box?
..rhetorical question. Fate is sealed, but to only few is it revealed. (Not me).
(I am too PTSD’d to make such claims.)
That’s funny! Romney wins the debate against Obama and increases his chances of getting elected, Market goes up! Reported jobs numbers are better than expected so this helps Obama get re-elected, Market is disappointed and goes down!
Well, I guess that makes some sense, since the entire debate was about the market. So, it’s official. The market is our leader and nation. And patriotism, too. Meanwhile, an arguable majority has no idea what you people are talking about. I’d give in to this class elitism, if I felt market forces were worthy.
The Adam Ant original of Stand And Deliver is classic. Gwen’s is trash…
I like it ; you finally admit that you
have no fucking idea where the
market is headed .
Your coolest when your humble Fly. Good thread.
The Republican / racist naysayers and shills
talked Americans out of $3 TRILLION in gains in
their 401K’s and IRA’s.
The Limbaughs, Hannitys, McConnels, Tea Partiers,
talk radio jocks and Jack Welches have badmouthed Obama’s handling of the economy since the day he
took office. So their sheepish (and foolish) followers failed to stay in, or get into stocks, and are invested/ investing in BONDS of all things- the next bubble waiting to explode!
These naysaying Propagandists should apologize to Americans they DEFRAUDED thru their falsehoods.
They should be forced to lick the feet of Obama and Bernanke, and Americans should NEVER AGAIN listen to them, or heed their investment advice!
You mean those TLT bonds?
I have some good news and some bad news: http://www.facebook.com/lisa.wells.3304673 (..Depending on your ideological convictions).
Why post a stupid Facebook link?
How much are you paying for gasoline? It’s all Reagan’s fault. Obamanatics on this blog have it right, don’t they? Huh?
I’m paying less than I was in 2008 under Bush the Moron.
And I’m sure you duly face the East as you organize your personal policies and compose your literary flatulence.
He said, “literary flatulence”……
Republicans talked us out of trillions of dollars of gains in our 401K’s? That’s funny, the republican named Bernanke has talked me into a fat 401k.
Bernanke is not a Racist Naysayer like Limbaugh, Hannity, Jack “The Idiot” Welch, Mitch McConnell and the brainless Tea Partiers.
But Kudos for not listening to, or heeding, the aforementioned LIARS.
“Well, the faux jobs report, as some are calling it, has led to a stiff sell-off. ”
Apparently the street has figured out this administration is a giant FRAUD, I just hope the voters next month figure it out as well…
Thanks for the Far Right Wing Paranoid’s view on things. We can always count on U to supply that, Moolah.
Paranoia must cause the dirty rotten unscrupulous reporting on Susan Rice, her handlers and the supreme setting the example.
How many American deaths was Susan Rice responsible for, compared to lying Aunt Jemimah Condoleeza Rice?
Pathetic display. Just another racist liberal. Good job rigged.
Who is racist again?
Thanks for the far-left idiotic obama-worshipping zombie point of view. We can always count on you to provide that, frog.
…See how pointless and lame that was?
What is interesting to me is that almost every blog comment page becomes a political battle ground lately.
Sign of election year or something also?
Yeah. Hard not to notice the blind fury. Gun stocks have come in a bit.
Top in Trannies bitchez
You talkin’ boob jobs?
Job numbers, climate change, economic collapse.
What is it about the fucking right wingers that they cling to their stupid theories even when contradicted by the facts.
The facts are these: 1. High government spending during business downturns helps the economy turn around; 2. Digging up eons worth of captured carbon and releasing it back into the atmosphere will cause the atmosphere to warm significantly; 3. Borrowing tons of money and giving it to rich people is detrimental to the economy.
These are facts. Real conservatives accept them, moronic right wingers deny them.
One of the curious aspects of US politics is that traditional conservatives are revolted by the nitwit tea partiers to the point where they will not vote Republican.
Much of politics is tribal, like choosing a sports team to be a fan of, or religious group preference. Although some tribes– like us Progressives– are indeed interested in facts, the same is not true of Far Right Wingers. So we waste our time giving them the facts. They indulge in faith-based politics. They take it on faith that their “team” is always right, regardless of the facts.
NFP as I have said for months and months is just made up of Phone Surveys, etc and with their massive revisions every month it is just a random guessing game. I am always so amazed how everyone gives so much value to it.
FWIW, this market use to run, I guess, on Fundies…QE got rid of that. Then it ran on Macro, well, QE forever, OMT forever got rid of that last month…now we are in this strange new phase of uncharted ground in which, imho, only Oil and Gold count??? Not sure why they are the only things that count?? But, it appears that is the World that the Clams of the World have created. WTI just under 90 is where the dip buyers like to enter, California is going crazy with our Gas Prices..Obama must be getting a hard on to release the Strat Reserves…all I know is next week could get really wild. For Earnings..they don’t matter, Clam killed that.
BTW for Oil on Monday, I am in the camp that maybe this stupid Iran thing may be hitting a turning point http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/iran-shifts-enriched-uranium-to-reactor-fuel-stock-in-confidence-show-for-west/2012/10/06/5b7ad62e-0fd7-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.html
RE job numbers…….
The numbers below are from an unofficial pool from another financial website. Draw your own conclusions about current popular opinion.
The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September. What’s your take-away?
It assures President Obama’s re-election (12820)
It’s proof the economy is improving (33490)
It’s temporary, the worst isn’t over (18329)
I don’t trust the numbers (89909) – your vote
Sounds like the web site is a Far Right Wing one. Is that why you didn’t name the web site?
Frog, you have become a clown. No one in these hallowed halls cares and those that did have overdosed on the hyperpropaganda. You are hurting the cause comrade. Go infiltrate another site of capitilists with your bullshit.
I’m with you Frog has over stayed his welcome. Lets get back to trading ideas. I myself am starting to like MSFT here. Maybe 1/3 position
Unfortunately tools like Frog will never take advice. Not real interested in MSFT. Got a earnings season coming that could test the clams power of influence. Big if.
It was Yahoo Finance Froggy. Is that a far right site or what? LOL