After my KMB sale, I am 15% cash, a meaningful amount in a very bullish tape. I’ve been saying this for awhile now: we’re due for a rest. Our algos were flagging OVERSOLD signals for a number of inverse ETFs yesterday. Here is the data.
DOG (6 mo algo)
DOG (12 mo algo)
And it is signaling the decline in the dollar is about to stop, which bodes poorly for risk.
UDN
If that’s the case, why am I 85% long and why did I buy ANR yesterday? In short, because I could. I do not cede my decisions to a computer. I use both data and intuition to make decisions. There is a reason why quants blow up. It’s because they forget how to think for themselves. I outsource much of the grunt work of combing through numbers to The PPT. But when it comes to the art of investing, it’s all me.
Still, I may lose money on ANR and I might end up regretting being 85% long at the top end of the range. But I am pushing the envelope. How else am I supposed to make triple digit returns, as promised in this year of generosity, if I am not willing to lose a little to make a lot?
Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, accused Obama of manipulating the jobs numbers today. I don’t know. What do you think? Does the white house really have control of economic statistics?
Lastly, today is the one year anniversary of the passing of Steve Jobs. Say what you want about his personality, but he will be missed. As a small business owner and big thinker, even bigger dreamer, I have nothing but respect and admiration for what Steve accomplished during his time here with miscreants.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dInYmYI7Q20 603 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
ideud. RIP SJ
cant say that the WH “controls” economic stats, but I am sure there are phone calls made to influence the “plug” numbers, so long as they are within the acceptable range.
today definatley reflects where apple is heading without Jobs.
dumbass what do you mean? AAPL has doubled since Job’s passing are you not aware of this.
Oh really? Incase you weren’t aware, fuck monkey, today Apple took a shit to the 50 day, has been plummeting for the past 2 weeks. My comment was reference to todays performance of Apple. And apple very well may have doubled YTD of jobs passing, but how will Cook wield the helm? By stretching out iphones and lil mini ipads? Please proceed to the genius bar if your maps can find it, for perhaps a new update before speaking out of line. Good day.
50th anniversary of James Bond franchise. I will be watching to see if the OSC program makes it into a future story. Indeud.
Jack Welch should shut the fuck up about such senseless rhetoric. From a political view, if employment goes up that increases the tax base and lowers the need to increase taxes (other forces held constant). If employment goes down that necessitates ousting of the incumbents while there is increased pressure on govt spending and receipts.
Everyone benefits with higher employment (if it’s quality employment) and fewer benefit with high unemployment. Complaining about this nonsense is completely counterproductive.
I bet those employment number crunchers work on the same server as the voting machines.
Almost 8%…..like dragging absurdity to its logical conclusion. The employment numbers were not even covered in the business section, of my news feed.
Jack Welch is a clown, and an even bigger one if he spouts such ignorance as he did today.
This is the guy who beat the whisper earnings number by a penny every quarter lol
by selling off real estate and other hidden assets….
A more powerful force than the White House probably could influence economic statistics– the Fed. But I don’t think they are doing so at this point.
Lee Adler over at the Wall Street Examiner usually does a good job of predicting these government statistics numbers ahead of time– based on facts, not manipulation expectations– & he did it this time also. He’s a real grumpy guy but seems to know some stuff.
He is bullish just like Fly. Also predicted the housing market & housing stocks recovery. He writes newsletters, but in the past I subscribed & found him not to be a particularly good stock picker– though correct about overall market directon.
The number surely gets manipulated but regardless of whether it was this morning, it is a useless statistic.
The grumbling about manipulated economic stats all over the web, & how we the real story is that we are going into the next Great Depression– All that seems to me to be just the Wall of Worry that this bull market has been climbing since March 2009,
I do think the economy is improving. I don’t see anything irregular about the numbers.
So, the last numbers were bad?
To me, point is, we can’t trust any data, and if they want to attribute numbers to a certain candidate, for political gains, that’s a plain lie, that’s all.
I agree. New orders are not picking up across the board but there are good signs. Housing and stock market gains are excellent for the consumer balance sheet.
True. New headline: “Pols Respond to Jobs Numbers”
The higher capital tax in January should help things going forward. I’m thankful we have a president that strives for fairness. A great economic mind for sure…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54jr3Ceu894
How many of you smart fucking liberals want to argue that raising the fucking capital gains tax on the principle of”fairness” while acknowledging that it will bring in less tax revenue to government coffers is a good idea?
What that video doesn’t say is WHY capital gains revenue went down in the 1980’s, which is the crux of the issue. There is always an economic driver to certain outcomes, and it is the driver that people often miss, because they focus on the result only. Just from the looks of this chart it seems capital gains tax revenue largely follows the path of the market, with the actual tax rate having a marginal effect. What that video also neglects to say is that the long term capital gains tax was increased from 20% to 28% in 1987. What happened that year? Oh yeah the stock market crash. http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=161
But I agree raising the capital gains tax solves nothing. The USA has a growth problem not a revenue/deficit/debt problem.
Revenues & deficits do matter though & they make the problem better or worse. And growth is improving– although slowly than we would like.
more slowly than we would like, I meant to say.
Decreased revenues and increased deficits are a symptom of a recessionary/slow growth economy. Fix the growth problem and you fix the revenue/deficit problem. But is it really a revenue/deficit problem when the government can print its own money at will? If the government can print its own money then it is not in danger of going bankrupt. Acknowledge this fact and you can better see that low revenue/high deficits is merely a symptom and not a problem in itself.
Well, there is the question of how long the government and its creditors will continue to accept its printing of its own money though. As deficits grow, that time gets closer.
Good point, SilentKz. If lower taxes make government revenues higher, then why haven’t we just done away with taxes? Government revenues would go to the moon then, LOL.
It’s interesting how the people who claim to be concerned about the budget crisis always want much lower taxes. Do the math, for Christ sake. But it’s not about math. It’s about wanting to have your cake, eat it too, & never pay for it. Surveys show that everyone wants to cut government expenses. But when you ask them what they want to cut, there isn’t much they want to cut.
Frog, I’m so sick of your bs, calling conservatives selfish for wanting tax cuts. It’s not about me, but the economy. I’m for tax cuts for everyone, including you. If a genie came to me and said “you may cut Frog’s taxes but not your own”, I would do it.
I will ask the question one more time, and give you time to pull your lips of our dear emperors ass.
How many of you smart fucking liberals want to argue that raising the fucking capital gains tax on the principle of”fairness” while acknowledging that it will bring in less tax revenue to government coffers is a good idea?
That’s not in any of the liberal talking points yet so he can’t answer.
Here’s our data-source: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/10/05/latino-unemployment-rate-lowest-in-nearly-four-years-falls-to-pct/ and as for the rest of the 7.8%, I bet, they were able to include prison labor in jobs report for the first time.
Okay, fine. Obama: Take credit for economic growth based on actual slave-labor or slave-labor waged jobs.
Wow, that article is amazing. Although it gives the usual Repub point of view that Obama hasn’t accomplished anything significant, it also mentions the facts that the Obama administration has indeed made progress on employment. I wasn’t aware of Fox News ever giving Obama credit where credit was due before– since their station is the mouthpiece for the Repub party.
Frog – you are spot on. On a separate note that you will find interesting…I attended a private fundraising event about 3 weeks ago for a Congressman. The person shared – and was very careful in how it was worded so you had to read between the lines – that the private polling for both campaigns show the electoral map is even better for Obama than what the media and both campaigns are letting on. The media wants a close race because its good for ratings and both campaigns do not want their fundraising to soften so they won’t discuss it publicly either. Heads are going to explode on right wing websites when the election results come in. Romney totally screwed himself by alienating latinos, women, and blacks during his primary when he had to tack too far right. He simply doesn’t have the math to win the map in the swing states he needs. His only hope is that those groups stay home in massive numbers on election day, otherwise he cannot mathematically win the electoral map. That is basically the jest of what the Congressman shared with us.
Rofl…
Juje machini
“I outsource much of the grunt work of combing through numbers to The PPT. But when it comes to the art of investing, it’s all me.”
When judging when and to what extent to trust an algo score, it helps when you know what’s under the hood.
“Does the white house really have control of economic statistics?” The white house, and specifically the President, have marionette-like control over every aspect of our lives, if you follow the fervor with which people pick sides, etc. I had a novel idea…since Romney won the debate, I started thinking about the qualities that it takes to win a debate (speaking without pause, deliberate, and talking over people) and how that would qualify one to be President (one of the most absurdly complicated and nuanced jobs). People take these shallow cues, like looks, etc, and extrapolate that to infinity. That being said, next debate: the candidates walk out on stage, do their stupid hand-shake-pat-on-the-back combo. However, no podiums. Just a fucking weightbench sitting there. The both see how many times they can rep their weight. And then see what each can “max out” at. That’s it. Winner takes the hizouse del blanca, bitches.
That certainly would make as much sense as the way people pick which candidate to favor right now.
What is funny and what both sides don’t readily admit is the majority of job losses since 2009 has been in the government sector! The dems don’t want to admit it because it shows Obama doesn’t care about government programs. The repubs don’t want to admit it because it shows that Obama really isn’t “big government”. Just look at all the government jobs Bush added! He makes Obama look like a tea party candidate. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=brg
Excellent point, SilentKZ. Things are not what they appear to be. You mostly hear only the facts that correspond with certain agendas that various groups pay to have broadcast. The facts that no one is pushing or paying for– these fact somehow get left out, time after time.
Fly is right that the economy is improving. Although this bull market will have pullbacks from time to time, for the most part, Bears on the economy & the market are going to keep doing a lot of crying in their beer.
good stuff, herr flea
Yeah, just ask Job’s daughter what a great man he is…
Jobs was a fucking asshole (personal experience) that believed in magical thinking. He’s dead, and I’m not. Gotta give him credit for APPL stock price rise though.
I am resting anyway .. sick at home 🙁
I cannot sell KMB though, you know why: if I sold the position where I would be than? It’s a bull market, you know.
By the way I own KMB much longer than I have been reading your blog, which is very very long 🙂
Good day to all and happy trading.
Dr,
what are your thoughts on TCK and VALE here?
At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Convention over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?”
Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. According to his LinkedIn profile, Phillips has been an economist at BLS since June 2009. Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. Phillips was also assistant coach for a girls’ high school tennis team in 2010.
These amounts of money are not huge. And how many economists there have contributed to Repub campaigns?
Back to the grind. http://kik.com/ the texting app my daughter uses. Does this company have a future, researchers?
refined cocaine train
And POOF! the fake job numbers rally is gone
AAPL down 2%, 873,000 people with new jobs aren’t going to buy iphones/ipads ??? wtf??
Which category do you guy’s think Frog is?
V.King/Hustler Post Debate Poll … Romney 59% 0Bama 41%
By vking – Thu Oct 4, 2012 2:35pm – 5 Comments – 1,260 views
The following is a break down of each of the 4 race groups highest self identified likely voter for each candidate 10/03/12
Romney Wins the:
White Males (non HOMO) 95%
White Females (know how to use an oven) 70%
Black Males (who have less than 1 baby momma) 32%
Black Females (non stripper) 28%
Asian Male (Cocaine Karaoke User) 77%
Asian Females ( nail salon workers) 80%
Hispanic Males (non lawn care) 55%
Hispanic Females (non housekeeper) 45%
Obama Wins the:
White Males ( cum guzzlers ) 99%
White Females ( watch more than 3 hrs of Jersey Shore a week ) 59%
Black Males (incarcerated) 100%
Black Females (more than 6 children) 100%
Asian Males ( shemales ) 97%
Asian Females ( “massage therapist ) 67%
Hispanic Males ( MS-9 gang member) 88%
Hispanic Females ( drug mule ) 95%
kind of over-the-top racism, eh buddy?
Marketing research doesn’t lie.
Looks pretty accurate to me.
..they only see the numbers.
and hear the lies.
…just like me. I hear those lies, too
No more than Bill Mahr you liberal hippie
So you *think* you can predict someone’s political leaning by whether or not they promote racism or frown on it?
I am offended.
cry us a river you pussy
Top Gun Fly asks, “Does the white house really have control of economic statistics?” Shot Wad Medfly answers, control of all government matters is exercised by the silent troika – Dimon, Blankfein, Pandit.