Fly Buy: $USG, $BX

I added to both my USG and BX positions.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, the next time you go hiking, you will fall off a mountain. And, you may lose money.

I sold out of more of my VHC position, so much so that it only represents 5% of my holdings. I’ve been fortunate to escape from it with a 15%+ profit, considering it’s an illiquid, trade by appointment, sort of name. There is nothing wrong about VHC, per se (less homo than Bo Jackson); I just need to climb the market cap ladder. That’s all.

Like other men possess an innate instinct to mine for gold bars or stick needles filled with opiates into their necks, “The Fly” endeavors to climb the market cap ladder to safety and  success.

With the proceeds, I’ve reduced my 140% long position to something slightly less than that. Do not fear, small plebeians from the intersphere, I shall reinvest the monies wisely and catapult myself to the +20% range in short order.

Your turgid style bores me and I’ve asked all of the Gods (the new and the old) to kill you where you stand.

May 10,000 bolts of lightening evaporate your well being into ashes and rapacious hurricane winds disperse them quickly–to steal away a proper burial for your family and loved ones.

So far, so good–my longs are up and my single short is lower. CCL is a broken company, not just a chart. They sell a luxury item that has been killing their customers or forcing them to defecate on themselves. I cannot think of a worse brand in America right now. Wait until the lawsuits hit and the crap swings around and hits them in the face.

The end result is very predictable. Their competitors will take away share, forcing CCL to lower margins–hence miss earnings.

I am short CCL until the stock hits$30.

GS is steadily progressing higher. I’m up nearly 20 points on the stock and have no intention on selling anytime soon.

My other top picks are USG, BX and MOS.

You might think I am joking when I say “forget about 2013”– but I’m not. Earnings multiples are never based upon current year estimates–but the future. We want to know what the S&P will earn in 2014, then extrapolate a reasonable and historically consistent PE ratio to derive targets. Already, analysts are looking ahead.

“Our baseline forecast remains unchanged — slow growth in most of 2013 as tax increases and government spending cuts offset the private sector improvement, followed by a substantial acceleration in 2014 as fiscal policy turns more neutral,” Hatzius wrote.
Source

That’s right pumpernickel faces–the economy is going to FARGIN’ (god help me) skyrocket in 2014, allowing us to rip out the entrails of our neighbors and festoon our fences with their guts.

This is how the market is going to play out, to the exact detail.

Feb- +1-3%

March- +0.5-1.5%

April- (-1-3%)

May (-2-5%)

June +3-6%

July +0.5-1.5%

August (-3-6%)

September (-3-6%)

October +4-8%

November +3-6%

December +1-3%

Volatility is the biggest loser and XIV will close out the year at new highs. Not all stocks will go up, as dislocations cause disruptions and that means earnings will be messy. But if you stick to names of a larger market cap nature that correlate well to the market, you will do fine.

According to the palm readers at Goldman, 2014 is the year we ramp. As far as I can tell, there are no grave risks to this rally. Some believe the sequester will cause stocks to trade down. I believe the only thing that puts this rally at risk is if “the Fed put” comes into question. That can happen if we get a new hawkish Fed Chairman, or if the unemployment rate approaches 6.5%. Bernanke said they’d consider removing excess liquidity should the unemployment picture firm up.

My biggest failures over the past two years, the only reasons why I made single digits and not 35%, is due to poor risk management. If I moved up the market cap ladder after making big returns, I would have made an additional 60% over the past two years. Therefore, if you see me selling low cap stocks, despite liking them, in favor for big cap–do not be surprised.

For the third year in a row, I am up huge (+15%) in the first two months of the year. Unlike the past when hubris controlled my compass, I endeavor to keep these gains by steadily moving up the market cap ladder, ignoring my inner Henry Fool–discarding him to the trash heap of society, melting his face off with a flame thrower.

We’re all looking for opportunities. Some of us are retarded, unable to decipher a good deal from a poisonous rat trap. Most of the people I know are illiterates when it comes to investing.  Sadly, these people manage your money. They read magazines and concoct ideas after absorbing hours of financial media, pawning off the ideas of others as their own.

If you’re unable to read, like most investors these days, and can only depend on the “streams” of others, or charts, take note of what I am about to teach you.

This isn’t rocket science and I am not the only one doing it. We are talking about short squeezes, measured using proprietary technical analysis–via algorithms, overlaid on top a few simple data points.

In this case, the most important data point is the amount of shares available in the float. Stocks with less than 20 million shares in the float and considered to be “casino stocks” in the sense that their beta or volatility is extreme, thanks to the inherent nature of so little shares available for daily trade. Conversely, large float stocks, like MSFT, DIS and INTC, move with much less vigor because of their diversified shareholder bases.

After float, I want stocks that have very strong technical readings (trending up) and more than 15% of their respective floats are sold short. In an up trending market, it’s very dangerous to be short low flow stocks. Very simple, if RBCN can attract some natural buyers, via analyst note or news event, the people who are sold short may join these natural buyers in buying back their shares, adding tinder to the low float, causing the share price to spike. It’s a matter of supply and demand in the most basic sense.

There is no guarantee that these stocks will continue upward. But they’re certainly worth keeping a close eye on, possibly buying a few with tight stops underneath.

The Fly
The Amazing Market
IT’S OFFICIAL: CARL ICAHN IS GOING TO DESTROY BILL ACKMAN
IT’S TIME TO SHUT YOUR BIG, FAT, STUPID, FACES

Chess
Stock #Market Recap 02/13/13 {Video}
The VIX Can Remain Rational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent
ALL-NIGHT RUSSIAN CLUBBING: METEORITE CRASH STYLE

RC
4 Trading Ideas For Monday
Trade Ideas For Wednesday

Rhino
SOTU: Analysis and How to Play It
Just Not Built The Same

Wood
Checking In on the Asset Class Rotational Model
Dr. Benjamin Carson’s Amazing Speech at the National Prayer Breakfast

Raul3
The Stage Is Set
INTERNET FTW

Elizamae
Ode to a Stupid Company
BRAVO Good Sirs of iBankCoin

Jakegint
This Is About Par for the Course

Scott Bleier
Race to the Bottom? Are You Sure? (click link for full size!)

Caine Thaler
Long(er) Silver – Bought AGQ

News

The Man Who Literally Killed Bin Laden Cannot Find a Job 

FLASH: SEC Freezes Assets in Swiss-Based Account Used in Suspected Insider Trading Ahead of Heinz Acquisition 

Ackman Vs Icahn Battle Heats Up: Carl takes a 12% Stake in $HLF 

Meet the New Dodgers 

Kitaro 

I added to most of my positions today, except for VHC. I sold some of that. Also, I am planning to buy some Apple July calls ($600’s), in order to up my exposure there. It’s so hated right now, hedge funds are flipping out of it, you almost have to buy it every time money gets allocated.

With today’s buys, I am now at a record 140% long, meaning I am heavily levered to the upside. I am putting my money where my mouth is, foot firmly pressed down on a gas pedal inside of car made from dynamite sticks–headed for the sun.  I intend to maintain a constant and belligerent state of warfare against all sellers, good and bad, until tax day.

If you haven’t banked coin in this tape, you have the brain of a goat and should be put out to pasture in some sleepy Romanian village.

“The Fly” has been to the future, in his space rocket made from space grade materials, and stocks are substantially higher there.

I haven’t forgotten about the Japanese trade and will resume the ways of the samurai shortly. I am very nervous about missing out on a massive melt up in NAV too. It appears the company is doing a few things correctly and the stock action reflects that.

As of 3:23 pm on a calm Friday afternoon, Le Fly is up 1.4%–spearheaded by BX and USG.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM1RChZk1EU

This Scott Wapner guy needs to watch some old Mark Haines footage about how to properly interview a man of substance, like Carl Icahn. I’m not even going to link to the interview, since it’s too awful to watch, let alone promote.

In short, Icahn said he had a total of $14 million in exposure via long calls and short puts. It’s a brilliant move that limits his exposure, but gives him outrageous upside, should he win versus Ackman.

Also, let’s be frank, Icahn can throw another billion at the common stock, if he so chooses, to buoy the value of those options. Don’t think that doesn’t happen.

Icahn didn’t reveal anything of substance and clearly wanted to avoid getting into a soap opera-esque meatloaf throwing match with Ackman. But that didn’t stop that idiot, Scott Wapner, from goading Carl for no less than 10 excruciating minutes.

UPDATE: After the interview, Scott Wapner is still trying to create drama, instead of reporting the god damned news.

Long Icahn, short CNBC.

I sold short CCL because pricing will come under pressure following the Triumph.

I sold a little more of my VHC position and added to BX.

Blackstone is now my largest position, displacing VHC, for good reason. VHC is all concept, dependent upon the courtroom to make their living. BX is a behemoth, monster of finance, landlord and proprietor of assets in demand.

Total exposure to US real estate stands at a staggering $57 billion. A few years ago this would have been deemed to be a dreadful data point. Men clothed in burlap would sell BX short, hoping for a swift decapitation and subsequent bankruptcy. But we are living in a different world now, aren’t we? Re is in boom mode and BX in the captain’s seat.

To be specific, the sages at Blackstone took it upon themselves to buy into the distressed residential housing market, purchasing 17,000 homes, renovating them for income (rent) or resale.

Source: Credit Suisse

Real estate represents one of the four pillars of BX’s business. They are profiteers, flush with capital, dominant in the private equity world and its stock price is heading higher.