Monday, December 5, 2016
Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

This Is About Par for the Course

nervous breakdown


Moober can vouch for this.  Woodshedder and Fly as well.  Back in 2009, after one of the worst precious metal (and overall market) meltdowns in my lifetime, I started to plow back into the precious metal markets in the middle to third week of February.  I was early.

Oh boyo, those were a painful two weeks plus, I’ll tell ya.  But as I recall, we bottomed right around the end of the first week of March (the sixth or seventh?). It was glory days for the PM’s after that, right into 2010.

So I was feeling real good about getting back in during the first week of February.  Real good.  I guess I should have held off maybe two more weeks, eh?  Ah well, let’s just say that we are running into the same exact kind of  egregiously oversold market conditions we saw back then.  Given the tenor of the rest of the market, and the gobbets of fake money-digits entering the global economy via the cake-batter hoses of the world’s central banks, this is an insane and untenable condition.

It will not continue.

I will not add here, but wait until the turn is in.  I’ve saved a little something for the insanity.

You should too…


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  1. Rhino

    I’ve Been beaten with an ax handle in EXK.

  2. MOOBS


  3. Woodshedder

    Senator Gint speaks the twooth!

  4. PirateSmile

    This has the makings of a classic “everybody hates this ” kind of a play that can make your year.. Charts look ugly in the face of what is clearly the kind of macro environment ( central banks pumping cash furiously ) that should ( will ) benefit this asset class, “this time it’s different” rants from the knucklehead CNBC pundits, etc.As we used to say back in the day, close your eyes , hold your nose and drop that buy ticket.

  5. Chris

    I’m dyin’ ovah heah.

    Got a RGLD upgrade to buy by UBS. At least there is that.

    I’m digging through all the cushions and checking the change jars for more cashola to deploy. I’m on a one way ticket to hell or glory.

  6. #6

    The “buy and hold” (and add on dips) strategy for pm’s has definitely not worked for me over the last, say 5 years (? – can’t remember exactly when i jumped in but it was a while ago) save for slw and rgld. Up large then down large then to even and now back to pretty much down again across the board. If these guys do take off, I’m going to rethink my strategy in the pm’s since this clearly isn’t working for me. I don’t mind the roller coaster ride if the eventual trend is up. But seems like there’s got to be a better place to dock $ that will make $ over a five year term. Either that or I’ll have to turn into one of you deadbeat day traders 😉

    • JakeGint

      It’s been about three years, actually… since 3-4th Q of 2010.

      If you want some comfort… take a look at a 5 year weekly chart of $HUI:$GOLD (that’s the goldbug miner index vs. the price of gold).

      You’ll see that its lower than it’s been at any time, save for the nadir of the Great Selloff in 2008.

      And the stochastics are all turning up….

  7. #6

    One more infuriating thing about the miners – AG agrees to acquire Orko back in december and its shares take a left hook to the nuts and drops it to its knees. Today, CDE decides to outbid AG for that same Orko deal and its shares take an uppercut to its nuts and sends its shares plummeting to its knees.

    Now, logic would say shares in AG should recover whatever hit it took in december since it’s no longer saddled with the deal. Logic, unfortunately, has no place here. But fortunately for me, I own both AG and CDE and took both shots to the groin and am absorbing a 2 time loser deal, while on my knees and gasping for air.


    • JakeGint

      AG will be fine… CDE is more of a problem, but it’s a perennial underperformer.

      If it makes you feel better, sell your CDE and buy AG.


      • #6

        That ship has sailed. I’ve been waiting for these guys for too long to give up now. One way or another CDE, AG, EXK, AAU, etc etc will help me buy that apt in your old stomping grounds (carroll gardens/park slope – you wouldn’t believe the difference in price since you were there) or cause me rent a studio right abutting the westbound LIE in Lefrack City (“the Heart of Corona”). There is no other outcome.

        The horror.

  8. Honolulu Trader

    Getting To Max Pain Level.


    2013 not off to a good start.

  9. ThePragmatist

    This is a very similar situation to the very early 70s: stagnating/contracting economy, rising inflation, and loads of easy money.

    Back then the S&P lost 50% over 2 years, and the miners jumped by around 400%.

    History never repeats, but it often rhymes.

    S&P tops at 1575, late March, miners already bottomed, the summer lows will hold. Gold also about to head up ($2,300 by year end, up in line with the trillion extra Fed monetary base.

    Good luck all.

  10. Honolulu Trader

    “Gold also about to head up ($2.300 by year end”

    Yeah & I’m fucking Paris Hilton tonight.

  11. Honolulu Trader


  12. MOOBER


  13. ThePragmatist

    IMHO we needed this washout to clear out the last of the weak hands. No more sellers = up up and away.

  14. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Had to dip into AGQ today. Just absolutely stupid pricing levels

  15. Chris

    Taking the worst beating ever in a single stock – RGLD. It is relentless in its decline. I refuse to sell – as sure as I do it will turn. I am riding this thing to hell or glory. No bailing out. Catching a falling knife for the sake of an “investment” is not very fun. Hopefully in 3-5 years this little corner of the portfolio will be whole again.