SOTU: Analysis and How to Play It


The lady really isn’t into politics, and gets tired of the constant conversations between my friends, her father, and myself. But tonight, towards the end of the speech, she said, “wow, this country is going to shit.” I couldn’t believe my ears, she isn’t one to use profane language like that. See, she is a salaried worker, so she recently felt the pain of the social security tax cut expiring. I was actually embarrassed by the speech, for a number of reasons, two that really get me. First, the State of the Union, especially in the time of war (remember?), should not be an awards show. All those people did very commendable things, but acting like you somehow helped it, is something a dictator would do. Second, having a definitive number for what he wants the minimum wage to be, while he speaks so high of veterans and the military, yet gives no real information on how he is going to help them. I’ll expand upon both going forward.

We all know my stance on the gun issue tonight, does it deserve a vote, no, it’s in The Constitution. I feel as though this is some sociopathic stunt, people elected our president for a second term, so why wouldn’t they vote for something he feels so strongly about? He loves to show everyone how great he is, and how he helps people so much. He surprised everyone with his immigration reform point, but again provided no actual proposal of how to do so. I think it’s truly criminal that it’s a supposed “god given right” for people to reproduce, when they earn minimum wage and can’t even take care of themselves. Even worse still, if they rely purely on government entitlements to survive, and these same entitlements entice them to reproduce more. Listen, this is not what your God or Mother Nature intended, when we evolved or whatever you think. There’s a reason it is hard to reproduce and care for a child, and that’s called natural selection. That gets thrown out the window when you start paying people, more or less, to reproduce. I feel that having unprotected sex without being able to care for a child should be criminal. I’m not going so far as to say married, but children are expensive, and as a parent, your children should be your main focus in life, not a means to an end.

Now, considering that the government makes me pay for those who have children, without the means: materially, emotionally, morally, or ethically; does it not seem unfair that I may not chose to be able to defend myself in the manner I feel comfortable? That’s ludicrous. I will examine two quick points: the aforementioned households, statistically speaking, tend to produce far more criminals than those that are well balanced, I have no say in this though. Let’s not even focus on the economics, but go look at the amount of criminals that come from broken homes. Why must I support the reckless reproduction of humans who are statistically not be able to have the support and opportunities to become a responsible member of society, and have the highest rate of becoming criminals?  It makes no sense whatsoever.

The good that came out of it? Well, the trade agreements with Europe could be good, but do we really want to be involved with those idiots? Getting companies like Apple to make computers in the US could be good, but with all the union trouble already, is it really going to happen? I want to know where the $9 minimum wage is going to come from? San Francisco has the highest minimum wage in the nation at $10.55. Back in the day I worked at a GNC here in San Francisco, where I got paid the minimum wage, it was nothing, and what further exacerbated the problem was that the owner would not let anyone work full time, because he would then have to pay them benefits. He does’t have to have anyone full time, and there were plenty of people willing to just work part time. How does that then work in places like Kansas where it would raise the minimum wage almost $2 or 28%? My biggest problem with this is how it effects the military. The military is limited to a maximum 1% increase per year, so that doesn’t even come close to matching inflation and the diving price of the dollar. Is that fair?

Our president was up there, with all his examples for why he is so good and great– idols almost –but he never really owned up to anything that really mattered. For example, the division in the house on the budget and debt ceiling. Seriously, can you give me an instance where he really provided any real strategy for a bipartisan solution? No. That’s what matters. Is it absolutely horrific that those children were killed? YES, it was horrible, but right now a fight over the morality of guns should not be the focus. Europe is teetering, and there are all kinds of crazy things happening throughout the world– his Israel soliloquy was pathetic — yet here we are, debating guns, and how a child was killed one mile from his Chicago home, in the city with the strictest gun laws, but it was the gun’s fault. We should be talking about all the debt we have, Japan has, Europe has, etc. The system is failing, so let’s take a serious look at what’s best for “US,” instead of “me.”

How to play it:

Minimum wage increase: short “Big Box” retailers with small margins. Names include TGT, WMT, BIG, COST, DG, DLTR, FDO, FRED, PSMT

EU trade agreement: Long Europe and the Euro. Names include EWG, ULE, FXE (all ETFs)

Gun Talk: short gun makers for the time being, then buy into earnings. Names are RGR, and SWHC

Middle East: Oil will continue upward. Names include OIL, WNR (on a OS reading), and OII into earnings.

Charts for all here.

Scary time we live in.

7 Responses to “SOTU: Analysis and How to Play It”

  1. $PSMT is purely international. I’m guessing you’re looking for $PETM.

  2. Just a couple of brainstorm thoughts without investigation.

    I get emotional when hearing what I believe to be mistruths – but that’s the animal side overriding the man side & I need to just look at opportunities – a quality that every blogger on IBC has and I’m beginning to “get it”.

    A few things really stood out to me. One was the hype of global warming causing relentless forest fires. I believe that weather happens, and though everyone would agree that pollution is bad, man is not great enough to make the impacts that he is now given credit for. Many forest fires in the West are due to poor forest management. These forests are too dense & logging restrictions are a contributing factor – as ugly as some of those bare strips we’ve seen by a “clearing”, they act as ‘fire breaks’ as well. This problem isn’t being addressed….but how do we make money out of another upcoming summer wildfire season? I searched for “slurry” and found that Phos-Check is an approved one. The manufacturer is a wholly owned subsidiary of Israel Chemicals Limited (ICL), based in Tel Aviv, Israel. They do have an Unsponsored ADR (ISCHY:OTC US). Maybe someone else has another idea?

    Other thoughts came from the “Fix-It-First” proposal to rebuild deficient infrastructure. My first thoughts flow to concrete and re-bar (also goes with the housing recovery). CX comes to mind, maybe EXP & VMC? As far as re-bar, possibly X or MT.. CMC looks kind of interesting..but I’m sure the heavy hitters know how to play this best.

    Just thoughts off the top of my head with zero analysis. I have a few health care thoughts, but have to run out for a bit.

    • Insteel Industries (IIIN) might be worth a look.

    • there are very few folks left that truly understand the vital importance of forests,and lumber especially. civilizations can come and go based upon the availability and sustenance of lumber. @ rhino,all i have to say is anyone that voted for this “FAKE”,got,and will get what they voted for.

  3. Ok – so here is my SOTU thought that I didn’t have time to type this a.m. – Another statement by the president really made my eyes bug out, here it is: Obama: “Already, the Affordable Care Act is helping to slow the growth of health care costs.”

    As a member of the “ham & egger” club – I actually get to experience the compression that is really happening out here. ‘Obamacare’ has NOT lowered my personal health care costs. In fact since passing they have risen dramatically. 2012 saw a 40% increase in my premiums, and for 2013, I was informed they would increase by another 60%! I’m not kidding or exaggerating. The Fly was kind enough to share his wise advice and told me to “hedge by selling meth”….lol!!

    So what did I do? I started shopping around and got educated about “consumer-driven” plans. I had been closed minded before, but the tipping point had been reached, and since I go to the doctor about once every 3 years(or less), the “consumer-driven” model was something I should have been signed up for long ago.

    The HMO I dropped was Health Net. Their increases were shocking, and they did not offer a ‘consumer driven’ option. As of 2013, no one, and I mean NO ONE in my workplace belongs to HNT.

    Where did they go? Blue Cross Blue Shield in which WellPoint is a play, also WLP, as it turns out, was an author of Obamacare & has now acquired Amerigroup, making it the top private manager of Medicaid benefits with presence in 19 states, the largest in the nation.

    The other company that had a ‘consumer-driven’ option was United Healthcare. UNH definitely had the best rates and reputation among those that were already using a provider other than HNT.

    This is just my anecdotal experience, but I’m watching these companies out of sheer interest, and won’t be surprised if HNT disappoints in the future.

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