I’m back. Moreover, I do not appreciate shit from “oldmantrader” grabbing the headlines. How egregious.
While I was away, the market made a nice comeback, with the exception of the banks.
Listen to me: either the banks are buys or sells. You cannot have it both ways. It doesn’t matter that [[C]], [[BAC]] and [[MER]] have raised a gagillion dollars, due to their writedowns. It doesn’t matter because those “writedowns” will likely become “writeoffs.” Anyone who thinks they have it all figured out, due to past references, I am telling you now: you are naive.
Home prices have not bottomed. The underlying “collateral” behind all of the toxic paper is in depreciation mode. Therefore, it is fair to say the following will occur:
Banks will be forced to “writeoff” the bullshit paper on their sheets—instead of sticking a bandaid on the problem, via “writedowns.”
Banks will continue to raise capital, in a very dilutive way—pressuring equity prices lower.
Many thrift and regional banks will be closed, by the FDIC.
Now, that doesn’t mean some drunk stock trader can’t make coin in [[RIMM]] or [[AAPL]].
Short the banks: that’s my position.
Aside from [[SKF]], I am short [[LEH]], [[MER]], [[DSL]], [[WM]], [[FHN]] and [[FED]].
As for long ideas:
If you do not have energy stocks in your bullshit accounts, you have no right or business managing real money. You’re better off paper trading and sending your fucking results to that queer Dinosaur, at the end of every day.
With oil above $125, I love [[CLNE]], [[NOV]], [[ARD]] and [[IOC]].
Finally, with dry bulk shipping rates through the roof, I may bag some trades in [[NM]], [[DSX]], [[EXM]] or [[PRGN]]. I can’t buy into [[DRYS]] or [[GNK]] after their “balls on fire” run. Not for me.Comments »