iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,275 Blog Posts

A Perfect Day to Bounce

If the bulls want to make a statement, they need to rally the market today. However, there are many headwinds in their way, specifically end of quarter fuckery.

Once again, fund managers will start window dressing, selling off losers, while loading up on winners. Expect the ag/energy related names to hold firm, while financials drift lower—specifically regional banks.

See, the regionals are fucked every which way but loose. No one really cares about them. The Fed is concerned with the big money centers and brokerage houses. Bernanke could give two flying fucks and a gay horse about [[FMBI]] or [[EWBC]].

Right out of the gates, I covered my [[CSE]] short, for an egregious gain. It really doesn’t matter how much lower it goes from here. The point is, I had a gameplan and I am adhering to it.

Let me tell you something, quit pebbling me with [[MVIS]] questions. I’m in the name for a trade, nothing more. So fuck off.

Right here, I want to wait an hour or two, prior to my next big move. Barring a rally, I’m going to lean on the fuckers from [[HRB]], [[FMBI]], [[PACW]] and [[CYN]].

I cannot find stock available to short [[EWBC]].

In addition, I like tech here, as a short—via [[REW]].

Once again, this is the perfect rally day for the bulls, so be on guard.

On the long side, I like [[RIG]], [[PCZ]] and MVIS.

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Fly Buy: CSE, EWBC

I covered my [[CSE]] short, buying 15,000 @ $11.21. I covered some of my [[EWBC]] short, buying 20,000 @ $7.10.

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Position Update: CSE

Idiocy.

CapitalSource prices its offering of 30.0 mln common shares at $11.00/share

On the matter of idiocy, [[CSE]] is trying to close on a deal to buy Fremont General in bankruptcy. Who is Fremont General, you ask? An egregious underwriter of mortgages in the God forsaken state of California. So, after the stock knifes lower by 30% in a week, the company dilutes its shareholders by 10%.

Wonderful clusterfucks.

At the time of this post, “The Fly” was short CSE.

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BREAKING NEWS EMERGENCY ALERT

I just sold short 100,000 shares of Jeremy @ $22 and 100,000 shares of Woodshedder @ $0.73.

At the time of this post, “The Fly” was long 1 million Ragin Cajun @ $350 and 500,000 Alphadawg @ $155. He has no position in “Danny,” which happens to be trading a notch under $1.

NOTE: My IQ is much higher than yours.

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Another Godly Day

The egregious powers of “The Fly” are strengthening by the minute. He is fighting many battles on numerous fronts, and winning on all of them.

In other words, “The Fly” is Godzilla and everyone else is Japan.

During today’s tape, I made massive quantities of coin, while heavily caffeinated, on short [[CSE]], short [[EWBC]], short [[FED]], short [[CYN]], long [[RIG]] and long [[NOV]]—just to name a few.

I gave back a little in my [[HRB]] short; but that’s okay. I have lots of firing power. My ammunition drawer is filled with nuclear bomb grenades and mustard gas. Fuck around, I’ll throw some mustard gas in your face.

As an aside, it appears the banks are sliding down the sloppy slippery slope of sloth. I suspect we will see many more dilutive capital raises, to go with egregious writedowns, almost immediately.

“The Five Reverse Horseman” of death and fun had a splendid day, as did most regional banks.

Towards the end of the day, I started a short position in [[FMBI]], and added to my [[REW]] position. In short, with such an ugly tape, there is no fucking way tech will skirt the selling programs.

Eventually, the pain will become too great for money managers, forcing them to raise cash. When this happens, I suspect REW will sprint to $65.

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Fly Sell: FMBI

I sold short 2,000 [[FMBI]] @ $20.45.

Disclaimer: If you sell short FMBI, the rule that all $20 bank stocks eventually go to $5 will no longer apply. And, you may lose money.

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Position Update: EWBC

S&P DOWNGRADES OPINION ON
SHARES OF EAST WEST BANCORP
TO SELL FROM HOLD
Recent Price : $7.57
Recommendation:
After widening our loss assumption for EWBC’s commercial loan portfolio, we are lowering our ’08 EPS estimate by $0.45 to $0.47 and ’09’s by $0.68 to $0.98, and we are cutting our 12-month target price by $9 to $6, which is about 6X our ’09 EPS estimate – below California peers.We believe EWBC’s commercial real estate and construction loans, which make up over 65% of the company’s loan portfolio and have above-average exposure to California’s Inland Empire, will see losses accelerate in coming quarters as housing market problems spread to other areas of the local economy.

I say, let them burn.

At the present, I am short [[EWBC]].

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Alert: Shotgun to the Head Pick

With oil gapping here, I love me some [[RIG]], under $160. Take a look at [[NOV]], [[SWSI]], [[HP]], [[IO]], [[DO]], [[DVN]], [[NE]] and [[WFT]]. This sector is booking higher, mind you, booking.

With the space on fire, you have to love the “Godfather Pimp” of the drillers aka “The 1 million ton dragon of oil Godliness”: RIG.

Day rates for deep water rigs are through the ceiling. Trading under 9x 2009 numbers, I feel the stock can hit $200 by October, no problem.

Frankly, there are very few stocks “The Fly” buys or shorts, without fear of being wrong. Shorting the “Five Reverse Horsemen” is easy and so is being long “RIG-Daddy” aka “short seller widow maker.”

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