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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

The SEC Mocks Cryptofags

In recent weeks, we’ve seen so many absolute faggots change their Twitter handles to ‘Blockchain This’ ‘Blockchain That’. Here’s the Forth Worth SEC pushing against that horseshit — smugly mocking them in an apparent episode of levity — perhaps taking a brief break from going after penny stock peddlers, while ignoring bigger fish worth frying.

What wonderful market.

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Morning Poppers (Oprah is Too Fat to Be President Edition)

I’ve had enough of the celebrity President thing. For example, I like The Rock too much to possibly want to hate him as my President. Also, Oprah is fat as fuck — way too out of shape to launch ICBMs at N. Korea. After Trump, the country will be properly primed for a professional liar again, a standard run of the mill statesman. Agreed?

Futures are slightly higher and oil is strong. You want to get long oil — because the seasonality Gods say so. Buying oil from December through March is the best time to own it.

I am long SLCA, BBG, SN and FTK — because they are going the fuck higher.

Year to date, large cap tech is where the real money has been going — which is exactly where Exodus quant is invested.

Here are this morning’s headlines.

Helios & Matheson announced that MoviePass surpasses 1.5 mln subscribers
Wells Fargo upgraded to Buy from Hold at Sandler O’Neill
Amazon target raised to $1400 from $1200 at Piper Jaffray
GoPro target lowered to $4 at Dougherty & Company; maintain Sell

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“INSANE” Bitcoin ETFs Are Coming Soon

The scoundrels and bandits from Direxion have applied for a slew of new ETFs, five funds in total, all to do with Bitcoin. If you thought Bitcoin was volatile enough, you haven’t seen anything yet. Direxion intends on applying leverage to these fucking bombs, with the evil intentions of blowing up a brand new investor class of HODLers to smithereens.

Their names are Direxion Daily Bitcoin Bear 1X Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 1.25X Bull Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 1.5 Bull Shares, Direxion Daily Bitcoin 2X Bull Shares and Direxion Daily Bitcoin 2X Bear Shares.

Industry wide, crypto currencies is widely regarded as a retarded investment, as indicated by Merrill Lynch’s ban on buying and selling GBTC.

More from CNBC:

“That would be insane for them to actually approve this. Then they’re putting a rubber stamp on it as an asset, and I don’t think governments want to go there yet,” said Michael Cohn, chief investment strategist at Atlantis Asset Management. “It just seems as though it’s not something I’d want to put my clients into in any way, shape or form. You can only be embarrassed.”

“There are a lot of conflicting attitudes about this thing. I don’t think the SEC can wrap their arms around this,” Cohn said. “It’s not an asset class, it’s not a currency. It’s going to be evolved into a technology. As to whether that technology is viable, that remains to be seen.”

“Can you imagine what a 2X bitcoin put or call is going to do? It’s going to be amazing volatility,” said Nick Colas, a bitcoin watcher and co-founder of DataTrek Research. “It’s eye-watering.”

Colas said he sees the attempts at leveraging bitcoin as part of traders’ quest for volatility, which has been noticeably missing from most of the market but is pretty much a daily fact of life for cryptocurrencies.

“This is the analog of the search for volatility,” he said. “Obviously, bitcoin does have a lot of volatility on its own. This is an attempt to create a product that has some volatility that leverages that.”

Wall Street will not embrace Bitcoin investments because they cannot buy and sell cryptos; therefore, they cannot collect fees. They do not like what they cannot profit from. Nevertheless, these new ETFs, if approved, will attract a brand new genre of eager late comers into an asset class that is widely desired, but hard to attain.

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CRYPTO WORLD IS GETTING FUCKED UP NOW

Long ago when I first started blogging finance, ABSOLUTE faggots were up in arms because I dared to curse on the internets. Did you know that was one of the reasons why The Fly became popular — because all of the priggish liars were relieved to read someone who used words they used every 5 minutes in the office? Brokers would pretend to be proper outside the office, but inside were savages.

Speaking of savage, no more than 2 days after I warmed to cryptos, the entire sector gets destroyed. No worries, the HODLers will save the day.

The complex is getting cracked asunder, led lower by Ripple.

Overall market cap is now $682 billion, which is down from ~$800 billion. I cannot and will not call for the destruction of the complex now, especially since people can’t even buy if they wanted to. Did you know that? The demand to open accounts is so great, exchanges are closed to new accounts.

Buy dips.

The crypto proxies are mixed, with gains in DELT, BURG, CNET and OTIV, with losses in DPW, NXTD, MARA and RENN.

Overall, markets are a little weak. Go eat a sandwich.

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INDEUD

BURG is getting some hamburger helper today — breaking the fuck out to the upside sans news. It’s the very best marketing gimmick known to mankind.

“Come and eat our hammed burgers and win a chance at some of these here crypto currencies that everyone is getting rich from.”

You’d have to be a fucking moron to eat a MacDonald’s when BURG is handing out wealth.

Stock will trade in 100% increments shortly. You’ve been Mcwarned.

Tired of winning yet?

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$OSTK Target Pushed to $110, Bull Case to $261; $STX Might Own a Chunk of Ripple

I’ve often said that OSTK is the CMGI of this era for cryptos. They were first to commit to the sector and now we’re starting to see extraordinary shareholder value realized. Today Davidson, albeit a shit shoppe, came out with boolish notes — upping their price target to $110.

$OSTK Incr. Valuation for Blockchain-Related Holdings, Raising PT to $110 from $85 • CONCLUSION: We are increasing our price target to $110 from $85. The change is a reflection of raising our valuation for Medici Ventures, Overstock’s portfolio of investments in ten companies that to varying degrees leverage the blockchain; in particular, tZERO and we made an initial effort at valuing Bitt (beyond our prior of carrying it at book value based on the amount of capital invested, to date, by the company). With shares trading above our valuation for Overstock’s legacy home e-commerce business ($58 per share), we believe it is important for investors to understand that buying and owning shares at current levels is a bet on its blockchain-related investments. Given our view that not only is there tremendous value in its holdings, but it owns, by far, the best portfolio of blockchain-related assets among current publicly-traded equities, we believe the stock merits such a valuation. • Additionally, to provide greater insights on the potential value of shares depending on the outcome of a number of items (such as the possible sale of its legacy home e-commerce business to a bricks and mortar retailer), we have updated not only our base case scenario (new $110 price target), but also our bear case ($34) and bull case ($261). (See Figure 1 on page 4.) • We recommend investors purchase shares at current levels and reiterate our BUY rating.

I think it’s a foregone conclusion that OSTK is going to trade inexorably higher, don’t you think?

In other news, Seeking Alpha is out with an article this morning, claiming Seagate owns upwards of 4% of Ripple — the super hot crypto currency, #2 in crypto land.

In the Ripple Series B, there were 10 investors in the round, which was led by SBI Investments. Doing the same calculation as above, dividing the 33% expected equity sale to 10 investors, we can estimate that Seagate bought around 3.3% of Ripple at that point.

Therefore, across the two rounds, a rough estimate is that Seagate bought and owns 4.3% of Ripple.

Multiplying that figure by the $183B of XRP that Ripple currently owns, we can estimate that the current value of Seagate’s investment in Ripple is approximately $7.8B, or roughly two-thirds of the market capitalization of the company.

It seems the market has accepted Seagate as a stodgy old-technology company and has overlooked the value of its investment in Ripple. Otherwise, if we assume that the market has fully priced in the value of the Ripple investment, the rest of the company is trading at less than 6x earnings.

Furthermore, the price action in the last year doesn’t reflect the value that a 4% investment in Ripple would add to the company. Ripple increased by 30,000% in 2017, which should have added billions to the share price of STX, had it been priced in. Instead, STX was up 9.6% in 2017.

STX is +8% in the pre-market. OSTK is off by 0.7%.

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Morning Poppers (Will It Continue Edition)

Morning lads,

It seems futures are marginally lower this morning, a grave sin and crime, especially since our Royal Highness, Donald Trump, wants more.

All of the jobs, JOBS, JOBS are wonderful, and also delightful. Right now, as a matter of fact, I have three jobs — all paying me very fine wages. I’ve been on a steady champagne diet since the beginning of 2017 and have sustained myself on very expensive sushi and aged sake during 2018. It’s very important that we, as subjects of his royal highness, thank him on a regular basis for creating such greatness in America. By all accounts, he is a very smart and stable genius and should be regarded as such.

I’m watching oil closely and of course the crypto proxy space. The press release Gods are toiling away at the Devils Press, eagerly spitting out new crypto pressers — sending shares zooming higher, upwards of 300% per story. This truly is a blue horseshoe environment and if you’re not playing this decadence, you’re a fucking idiot.

To that end, cryptos are lower this morning — so we might see a little profit taking in the sector.

Here’s some other news for your pleasure.

KLA-Tencor downgrade details — to Buy at Needham; tgt $130 (
Applied Materials upgrade details — to Strong Buy at Needham; tgt raised to $72
Wingstop provides prelim FY17 sales of $1.1 bln (+14% y/y) vs. consensus of $1.05 bln
Energous announces first WattUp-enabled consumer products available via pre-sales at CES 2018
Chico’s FAS raises Q4 comps guidance; reaffirms gross margin
GrubHub downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush
Lazard upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Caterpillar upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

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Ethereum Thousand Dollar Rolling, Oil, Futures, Inexorably Higher

I’ve come across some truly great ideas in my crypto space investigations. Right now the halo of uncertainty shrouds the reality, so all that is important are themes. One of the themes that I feel might result in some further gains in crypto land is in storage, leasing out personal PCs and collocating storage capacity in a way that will become ruinous for legacy players. Amazon, naturally, will find a away around this — but aren’t immune to these threats.

There are 4 coins I think are worth further investigation: Siacoin (SC), MaidSafeCoin (MAID), Enigma (END), and Storj (STORJ). Good luck trying to buy them, however — for it is virtually impossible if you don’t already have a shitcoin exchange account open now. Since this is a worldwide phenomenon, exchanges have stopped accepting new accounts — due to the fucktitude of the frenzy now. Normally I’d say this brand of fervor is a good sign to sell; but this time, of course, is different.

Oil is edge lording higher, approaching $62, and Dow futures are +70. This is it lads — the time of your lives and you’re sitting there — dick in hand — watching lesser men have all the fun.

If you’re tentative, go with a basket of large cap tech — or you could join the top hatted gents in Exodus and seek out our live trading room — The Pelican Room — and watch everyone grow.

Oh, by the way, ETH bolted past $1,000 and is now smooth sailing towards $1,200 — all in a day’s work.

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I Was Wrong About Crypto-Fags

I am working on a new project which entails a lot of manual rigor. Part of my job is to sift through the 1,300 or so ICOs and extract what they do, since no one else has actually deemed this to be an important factor in ascertaining information about cryptos. To date, all that is available to crypto investors is price action, which is, mighty I add, inexorably retarded.

To do this, I am forced to read thru white papers, detailing exactly what these companies do. Admittedly, many of these companies are laughable jokes and the valuations are out of whack; but many of them are in fact very real. The best way I can describe what is taking place is we are witnessing an entirely new internet being built — Web 3.0.

To that end, decentralization is about to happen on an industrial scale. While I cannot speak for valuations and the opaqueness of the market place, which is something that needs to be worked through, there are immense opportunities here — especially in storage. If you’re long BOX or any other cloud based server company, you should pay attention to what is going on in crypto land — because they’re about to snatch your wig.

Due to the current market intelligence platforms in crypto land being horrible and wretched places of ill-repute, most prospective investors wouldn’t know where to start, if they wanted to maybe look into a storage based coin. That will end soon.

Observe one small part of the functionality we’re building into the platform — keyword searches — which draws from a reservoir of information that is all being manually uploaded by my own hand.

Another interesting coin is Revain, ticker R — who seeks to supplant Yelp and they make valid charges in regards to Yelp’s fraudulent business, pertaining to fake reviews done to hurt businesses with extreme malice.

The list goes on and on. While some might view having to read 1,300 white papers as a chore, I see it as an educational undertaking. I’ve read through over 100 papers last night and inside the next month will have read them all. By then, I’ll have a firm handle on the asset class and will be able to speak about it with authority.

What we intend to offer is a platform, free of charge, that will overlay the algorithms in Exodus onto cryptos, in addition to a sundry of helpful information that will allow investors make informed decisions. I do not know if our predictive mean reversion algorithms will apply in this asset class — but at a minimum, users will be able to do powerful screens and use it to learn — which is the whole damned point.

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Visa Shuts Down Crypto Credit Card Company Without Warning: “All the Cards Were Shut Down in One Second”

Gibralta based payment solutions company, Wavecrest, was shut down by Visa today — stranding thousands of people with Bitcoin credit cards now effectively worthless.

Source: CNBC

The card provider, WaveCrest, confirmed in an email to CNBC that it was required “to immediately close all Visa cards.”

“As a licensed E-Money Institution, WaveCrest is required to safeguard funds to cover all of its issued electronic money and we can confirm that these funds are safe and available for redemption through other channels,” the statement read.

Visa, a payment network, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Wavecrest provided its services to a number of crypto-card companies, including Bitwala, Cryptopay, Wirex and TenX. These companies convert people’s cryptocurrencies into cash that is loaded on to a prepaid card, allowing people to use the currency for everyday transactions.

Now these cards are invalid.

Tenx is -19% and Cryptopay -18% on the news, a rather tepid response considering the news.

Apparently, Tenx is already working on a solution and have taken to Twitter to assuage users.

Monaco, another Bitcoin based debit card, reassured people they were not affected by the shut down.

People are understandably upset.

According to Wirex, the shut down by Visa was without warning, saying “all the cards were shut down in one second.” Dmitry Lazarichev, CEO of Wirex said Wavecrest was not responding to their concerns: “we asked for more information, but they haven’t provided any.”

Wirex has over 500,000 crypto currency cards around the world

In a statement by Visa, they said the reason for the shutdown had nothing to do with crypto currencies, but the fact that Wavecrest was not in compliance with regulations.

We can confirm that WaveCrest’s Visa membership is being terminated due to continued non-compliance with our operating rules. All of WaveCrest’s Visa card programmes will be closed as a result.

Visa has other approved card programmes that use fiat funds converted from cryptocurrency in a number of jurisdictions. The termination of WaveCrest’s Visa membership does not affect these other products.

Visa is committed to the security of its ecosystem and compliance with Visa’s operating rules is critical for ensuring the safety and integrity of the Visa payment system. Our issuers’ card programmes must comply with our membership regulations, as well as all applicable laws.

A representative from Bitwala isn’t buying it.

The change came very suddenly which gave us no time to properly notify our customers. Right now assuring them is our first priority. The decision also symbolises that Visa, and by proxy other traditional finance corporations, is not willing to service the growing crypto economy. This in turn motivates us to proceed further with our vision of building a crypto first bank which provides a bitcoin debit card with uninterrupted service.

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