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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

ENTER DICK GUILLOTINES

You were warned, weren’t you? From your housing tenements, desperate, cold, and without electricity–you sold short the market because Obama is a communist. You told tall tales, read Zerohedge and planned for the economy to thrust lower, amidst violent revolt and european sovereign debt crisis.

Understand something, you are the very dumbest the world has to offer, not because your IQ is low–but due to your inability to learn from past mistakes. You bastards are accustomed to tripping over live claymore mines, aren’t you?

You touch the oven and burn your hands. You recover from the wounds and touch the oven again.

DO NOT TOUCH THE OVEN ANYMORE, fucked face.

Lounged up in a dimly lit room, shrouded by a cloud of marijuana smoke, Benjamin Bernanke, in an unusual animated composure, is yelling at the CNBC, saying “I told you motherfuckers I was gonna get you real good this time. You thought this shit was over, didn’t you? POMO for life you fucking homos (puff, puff, puff–exhale).”

I was up 0.8% for the day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPID2gwQSXM

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The Turkey Gods Have Spoken; Santa Clause is Gearing Up For War

The markets have been bailed out by the splendour of mashed potatoes. As we speak, a gluttonous populous are raiding retail shoppes, tripping over one another, in order to “save” coin by spending money for X-mas items. The day we call “Black Friday” is upon us and “Cyber Monday” lurks in the crevasse.

Just know, today’s low volume melt up is one of the few “dunk shots” of the market. If retail sales come up short, Santa Claus will get kicked off his sled and beaten senseless. It’s also worth noting that every single crisis in the market is used to fuel short covering frenzies–this time circling around the specter of “The Fiscal Cliff.” Bulls will use rumors and rumors of rumors of a soon to be inked deal to frighten short sellers into mercy positions, breaking the shorts over their knees like pretzel rods. Once the reality kicks in, markets will fall. However, until the moment of truth is delivered, it’s casino time–courtesy of a hyper malfunctioning government body.

If you’re new to the site, looking for a hot hand, run over to Ragin Cajun’s blog. He just hit a grand salami long RIMM. The boys from 12631 are having a phenomenal year.

In short, the Santa Claus rally is in full retard mode. Let’s just hope the upright walking pigs have enough credit to fuel this rally until year end.

 

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A Gentleman’s Guide to Thanksgiving Decorum

I like to consider myself to be an expert in decorum. Lucky for you, I am going to share some of my secrets, in order to help you socialize during tomorrow’s Thanksgiving feast.

When hosting, be sure to address each person who enters your home by their proper surname, even if it’s your mother and father.

Example: “Good afternoon Mr. Thomson. I am so happy you could attend, accompanied by the venerable Mrs. Thomson.”

Immediately have someone fetch their outer-garments, then invite them to your parlour for refreshments.

Example: “Mr. and Mrs Thomson, please join me in the parlour. Can I offer you some wine or perhaps something stronger?”

After your guests have loosened up, serve appetizers and ask that they make a small donation to your favorite charity.

Example: “Mr. Thomson, please have a meatball, they’re delectable. They’re made from kobe. Also, let me offer you an opportunity to be charitable. Are you aware that children in Africa do not celebrate Thanksgiving?” (then proceed with sales pitch)

After you’ve achieved your philanthropic goals, ask everyone to sit and prepare for dinner.

Example: “Gentlemen and ladies in attendance, please join me in the dining area, where we will be serving a freshly slaughtered, organic, free range, stuffed bird, cranned berried sauce and other fine delicacies.”

Once seated and served, ask that everyone join hands to say grace. You will perform this function, and do so with the professional acumen that comes natural to you.

Example: “Dear Turkey Gods, thank you for all of this food on this table. I particularly would like to thank you for inventing cranned berried sauce and stuffing. I will be sure to douse your body with gravy and devour you whole. A-fucking-men.” (apologize to the children immediately)

While at the table, small talk is important. Try to address your guests with respect, but let them know who’s boss. It’s also important to frame your sentences in a way that demands a response, in order to keep the party vibrant.

Example: “Mrs. Thomson, would you be kind enough to pass me the gravy, okay, pal? Mr. Thomson, do you see those biscuits over there? Would you be a champ and get them for me? I greatly appreciate your assistance, thanks skip.”

After dinner, dismiss the women from the table, so that they might clean up. Ask for refreshments too.

Example: “Okay ladies, please allow the men to mingle in bitter solitude for a few moments. Dear (referring to wife), go get us some Port and a box of cigars. Mrs. Thomson, make yourself at home. There are plenty of aprons under the sink, if you need one.”

After you’ve had a nice cigar and some dessert wine, re-invite the ladies to join the men in the drawing room to discuss politics and religion.

Example: “Ladies, if you’re done cleaning up, please join us in the drawing room for casual discussion. Mrs. Thomson, how do you feel about Islam?”

Now it’s time to wind down operations. But it’s important to do so without looking rude. You do not want your guests to feel as if you’re kicking them out.

Make believe your pocket-watch isn’t working, tapping on it, complaining “this darn thing stopped working again. Can anyone be so kind as to tell me what time is it?” After hearing the time, address a guest in a specific manner to make her feel as if she’s intruding, but do so without her knowing it is intentional.

Example: “Mrs. Thomson, do you have many things to do tomorrow morning? My wife has been complaining to me all week about getting an early start on this Black Friday thing. Do you intend to wake up with the roosters and join the frenzy?”

When saying goodbye to your guests, be sure to offer parting compliments, prior to waving your hand as they drive away.

Example: “Thank you so much for dining with us tonight Mr. Thomson. Your wife. Ms. (emphasis on Ms.) Thomson looked especially elegant this evening with her costume. Is this Hermes, Ms. Thomson? (As they drive away, while waving and smiling profusely, yell out “Ciao.”

Happy Thanksgiving.

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Fuck With Turkey, Get the Stuffing Kicked Out of You

I haven’t bought any TEA, even though I think the ‘Glaucus Report’ is stupid as shit–because risking $4 for $1 (SBUX acquired TEA for $15.5) is a poor allocation of capital. However, should the stock continue lower, led by fucktards in green leotards, I am a buyer. The whole premise of this “Glaucus Report” focuses around pesticides in tea. Will you shut the fuck up already? You lost because the company caught a bid. Whoever was short TEA, did so because they thought SBUX would compete with them via Tazo. Well, guess what fucked face, SBUX bought them and Howard Schultz is thrilled, saying  he “will do for tea what he did for coffee.” He talked about the synergies with Tazo and TEA and how it was a perfect deal for SBUX.

Those are emotional statements and a little pesticide DOESN’T CHANGE THE FUCKING STORY. If a vendor is putting excessive quantities of pesticide, they’ll find new ones. For the love of bankrupted short sellers, THE GLAUCUS REPORT used just 13 samples, conducted at some two-bit lab (which was likely contaminated) and based Jerky Boys-like prank calls for the foundation to put out a story, charging that SBUX would back out of the deal. It’s laughable.

Here is the vid.

You don’t bet against stocks going into Turkey week. Tis the time to be festive, gain weight, and behave like jackasses. The junior traders will be whipped stupid should they oversee trading errors. Therefore, volatility will be contained and markets will drift higher into Black Friday.

NOTE: I’d be a seller of risky stocks on Friday.

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Slow Your Roll

All coal related stocks are going to zero, thanks to the Obama EPA. Stop buying them. BBY is dying because they dedicate 25% of their stupid stores to selling CDs and DVDs. HPQ is sucking dick because they bought Maddoff’s tech company. And INTC is lower because its super rich CEO decided to quit 3 years early.

Aside from that, everything is good. For every ANR there is a WNR. As of this second, the market is doing what it should, consolidate a big gain with muted losses.

You need to slow the fuck down and understand that the market doesn’t go down on Turkey Week.

Fucker.

 

NOTE: First read this-

Specialty tea retailer Teavana (TEA), which has recently agreed to be acquired for $620M or $15.50 per share by Starbucks (SBUX), is sliding after a firm with a disclosed short position said the deal could be jeopardized by allegations of consumer fraud at Teavana. Glaucus Research Group claimed in a note to investors earlier today that independent laboratory tests it had commissioned indicated that Teavana’s teas contain pesticides in amounts that exceed regulatory limits set by the U.S. and European Union. According to Glaucus, Teavana’s marketing practices violate federal and state laws against deceptive marketing and the firm believes Starbucks is likely to walk away from the agreed upon deal once the “inevitable” lawsuits against Teavana begin. Glaucus disclosed in its note, “We are short sellers. We are biased…(But) just because we are biased does not mean that we are wrong.” In mid-morning trading, shares of Teavana slid 53c, or 3.43%, to $14.90.

If this is false, those fuckers should be tossed into mobile electric chairs. How bitter and destitute do you have to be to keep writing short sellers stories, AFTER the company was bought out? This shit should not be legal. The deal was done for $15.5, ALL CASH. This looks like free money.

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Crack is Where It’s At!

When I refer to “crack” I am talking about the spreads enjoyed by refiners, especially mid-continent refiners like WNR and HFC, with respect to their cost of crude to what they charge for retail distillates. Thanks to Obama, we have a fucked up pipeline infrastructure in this country. God willing (ironies abound!), the liberals in this country will prohibit any new pipeline from building built.

See WNR gets their crude from W. Texas, known as the Eagleford Shale.  They have to truck the oil from Eagleford to their refineries in El Paso–because there isn’t any pipeline infrastructure. Due to logistics, the crude at Eagleford sells at a discount to WTI, which is already at a $22 per barrel discount to Brent, the standard by which all electronic trading is based upon.

The result is WNR gets to steal from you, each and every time you fill up your tank. They are the most leveraged and best positioned at out all the mid-continent refiners. I was very early to the name a few years back, playing it from $12 to $24. Since then, the company paid off debt, made a shit load of money, and even issued a special dividend.

At the moment, 321 crack spreads are north of $26 per barrel. More importantly,  the Brent-WTI spread is north of $22. Anything higher than $10 is fantastic. Having a $22 per barrel discount is insane.

Where is the stock going?

Higher.

NOTE: You can monitor the spreads mentioned above in the drop down/scrolling market data at the top of site.

NOTE II: The words”Eagleford Shale” should be replaced with “Permian Basin.” The logistics remain the same, however.

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Your House is On Fire

Starts rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today inWashington. The median estimate of 82 economists called for starts to fall to a 840,000 pace. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, eased after surging the previous month.

Okay? Let there be no more debate: the housing market is back. It doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is back, at least not yet. There is a demand for alternative investments in this country, as people with money hate the dollar, scared of bonds and suffer from nightmares over the stock market. It makes sense that the ocean of disposable incomes in this country be put to work in housing.

Who benefits?

From my experience, being a very big participant in the last housing boom: HOMEBUILDERS! (duh). You can mess around with derivative plays, like LPX, USG, OC and MAS. But let’s be clear, the companies who stand to benefit the most are the ones with the most skin in the game. That means PHM, HOV, BZH, SPF, TOL, MHO, LEN and DHI are all going higher.

Truth be told, we need the housing market to recover, in order to get unemployment down. Building big stupid homes is what we do best, similar to what the Chinese do with ghost cities and the ancient Egyptians did with pyramids.

HPQ is a disgrace. I can’t believe they got duped with Autonomy. Chanos nailed it the whole time, as he was short HPQ because of Autonomy. What a call.

BBY is tanking because the CD/DVD is obsolete. Look at all of the wasted floor space that is dedicated to CDs and DVDs. The company used to be the best–now they suck like all the rest.

This early sell off is child’s play. The market wants higher.

Wait for it.

 

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A Thanksgiving Gift: My Daily Summary Inside of The PPT

Here is tonight’s take on the markets, purely from The PPT‘s viewpoint.  I write this summary of the days events daily inside the club, aka The PPT, and offer the lot of you a small hole to peer into, considering the holiday season and all.

A great man once said “you owe me.”

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Last week’s SPY and QQQ oversold signals worked almost to the exact day. It was discussed, ad nauseum, that the market, according to The PPT, should be higher by Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, based upon the 5 day hold principle. Moreover, I pointed to AAPL, and SVXY OS signals as de facto overall market oversold points. Well, the pressure gauge went to the extreme and recoiled fiercely today in grandiose fashion.

It was an 85% breadth day, with just 2 out of 196 industries below 50% breadth. Amazing.

There were 88 industries that gained more than 2%. It was a short killer day.

Small tools and accessories is the #1 ranked industry, led by SWKSSD and SNA.

Interestingly, bonds had a big day tooXAA is the number 1 ranked ETF. XIV popped, validating yet another OVERSOLD signal, which was registered on 11/15 at $15.93.

AAPL was flagged OS everyday since 11/8, with the stock ranging from $527 to $558. With today’s 7% move, every OS signal was validated.

What is The PPT saying now?

The Overall Hybrid overbought level is 3.23 for the 3 month algo, which is comfortably higher than today’s closing score. It’s also worth noting that there weren’t any significant overbought signals in the macro ETF land tonight, with only three of minor interest: WOOD,CORN and HAO.

There are over 400 stocks flagged Hybrid Overbought on the 3 and 6 mo algos and 379 on the 12. Overbought stocks of note are: FTKENRGSLNKDANF and FOSL. Keep in mind, most of these stocks start to show weakness after the 3rd day of being flagged OB. Therefore, it is possible for them to stay flat or run higher until early next week.

Fly’s Lab produced 34 picks. Some of note are BODYCEVAQSIIKCG and SYNA.

Heavily shorted stocks, with very high technical scores, breaking the 20 day moving average are COLMDINPRAACALMCHE and RGR.

Stocks under $5 with big daily hybrid moves include ACADAMRSTHLDRMBS and MTG.

What can move next? Let’s have a look at today’s laggards that were beaten to death over the past 1-2 weeks.

Criteria: 1 week return under -5%, daily change less than flat, market cap over $1 billion with average daily volume over 500k.

Here are the results, sorted by cap.

Standouts include AMXBIDUSNDKKLACAKAMBBY and RYL–just to name a few.

If I was a betting man, the safest bets will be stocks with mammoth short positions, breaking out with technical scores.

Here are heavily shorted stocks with technical scores over 3, primed for squeeze.

LEAPTSLAMCPGMECOLMCONN and LULU

And here are  heavily shorted stocks with technical scores under 2, not primed yet, but can get there if this run continues.

SPPIPSODAQCORPANLDMND and SHLD.

Lastly, here are some large cap stocks down more than 10% over the past two week that leapt in Hybrid Score today:  WFTNYXBTUJOY and NVDA.

Bottom line: It was a much needed respite. Mostly everything traded up big and now the market has to prove that it is serious about moving higher. I’m not focused on industry breakouts yet, because it’s only one day of upside. However, I am sticking to my belief that silver will outperform most industries, due to temporary reflation, and will look to rotate out of EXK into tech or cash as the rally matures. The PPT validated all of the oversold signals from last week and does not point to any imminent danger in the markets. Purely from a observers standpoint, this market looks like it wants higher, before it can figure out how fucked up the world is right now.

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GET IN THE URN

I couldn’t resist the temptation of the sweet crack, as Israel drops “smart bombs” all over Gaza city. The powder keg, also known as Obama’s peace prize accomplishment, is on the verge of titanic eruptions– scheduled to effectively and purposely thrust cavemen into ash bins for expeditious liquidation. It goes without saying, I am very long in the WNR.

As the market goes BOOM, so do the wallets of consumers, clamoring to spend even MOAR money on turkey, gravy and stuffing. Shortly thereafter, a very hideously fat America will head out to the shopping malls to spend inordinate amounts of coin on “luxury items.” It’s funny that COH and KORS are considered luxury, when in fact they are reviled amongst social circles in NYC and other meaningful cities of substance.

With all of my talk and chest thumping, I’m barely up today (+1%), thanks to the homosexual nature of VHC. I am sure CHUCK BENNETT will explain to me how $32 was “such a good sale” today, in his never-ending and annoying quest to crush my VHC spirit. Little does he know, “The Fly” has zero regard for money and other trifles that plague the lot of you. As you’ve been told, I have other things at the top of my agenda. For example, I am on the verge of releasing the very best investor tool since The PPT. My world famous artistic programmer extraordinaire, VINCENZO ILLUMINATI, who fancies himself to be the “The Chevalier” of code, is hard at work–putting on the finishing touches of what he describes as “the modern day equivalent of Garcon a la pipe” for investors. It is scheduled to detonate inside of your offices– like a TZAR BOMBA– by pagan X-mas.

I’ve also been preoccupied with Mrs. Fly, whose ruinous spending sprees can only be matched with my penchant for obtaining coin.

Lastly, I’ve been orchestrating a financial coup over my great list of enemies, all to be financed by the winship that you continue to witness here on this first tier site. We do not write on a third grade level, like the majority of your favorite financial blogs out there. As a matter of fact, I piss on them, while smoking a cigar filled with their ashes.

Top picks: WNR, VHC, SWHC, EXK and NXPI

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