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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Blogging Trends at iBankCoin

So I was perusing the traffic stats for iBankCoin and came across some fascinating stats. Traffic via Blackberry devices is down upwards of 75% across the board. Our main driver of growth is through mobile devices, specifically iPhones and iPads, up more than 120% yoy. Within browsers, Chrome and Safari are enjoying double digit gains, while Internet Explorer is down 25%.

Our app traffic is up 500% and my fame and stardom in France is enjoying nothing but growth, where “Le Fly” is practically a household name, along with The Count of Monte Cristo.

Traffic via Twitter is up 300% and Facebook traffic is non-existent.

The good state of Texas is down 18% yoy. It is evident to me, through these stats, that Texas has seceded from the market. Both Houston and Dallas (no champagne parties) have left iBankCoin for dead, likely in favor of some transvestite site. In other good news, the state of Illinois is our best performer–all thanks and praise to the gangster culture present there that identifies with “The Fly” and his violent ways.

In August of 2012, we changed the layout of the site, nuking both our news and blogger network sections, both constituted about 10% of traffic a piece. We also removed ourselves from the vagrancy of Stocktwits, following repeated insults to myself and the readers of our great institution. Stocktwits represented just 155,000 views per annum, out of 13 million overall views–a pittance of minute proportions.

Nevertheless, due to the changes to the site, coupled with a general apathy within the investor community, iBC traffic will endure its first annual decline ever, in the range of -5 to -9% yoy. But it had to be done.

WE NEEDED TO CLEANSE THIS SITE FROM THE EVILS THAT INFECTED IT, IN ORDER TO CREATE A NEW ORDER, ONE THAT WILL LAST A MILLENNIA.

In summary, RIMM to zero, AAPL back to new highs, GOOG is at risk since traffic trends are strongly in mobile’s favor– and of course FB is a piece of shit. If Twitter ever ipos, buy with both hands.

NOTE: With analytics, I am able to view mobile usage on a daily basis, which gives me a unique advantage to identify trends in real time. I’ll keep you posted.

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I Was Dead Wrong, But Exactly Right

I misjudged the incompetence of our government, thinking they’d parlay the panic to the latter half of the month, in order to give investors a respite for the holiday season. I was wrong.

My original assumption, a bet if you will, is for massive incompetence–on an industrial scale–to take place in Washington DC. This is a high probability trade.

Since I am not in the business of shorting artificially inflated markets, I opt for cash instead. I swapped out of NXPI for UA today, and added to SWHC–based upon RECORD gun sales this black friday.

At the end of the day, I am destined for extreme winship of the belligerent variety. I intend to purchase your margin liquidations, once again, when dressed in tuxedo, top hat and white gloves. I will purchase your shares using the tip of my cane–as I do not intend to ever get my hands dirty.

With gains in excess of 20% for the year and time on my side, I am poised to close out 2012 successfully, restoring The House of Fly back to its former glory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cqg_ZGcuybs

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BREAKING: SENATOR REID COMES TO THE INVERSE RESCUE

The market was looking good earlier, absent anything to do with reality. Then SENATOR REID had a word, with regards to “The Fiscal Cliff.”

***REID SAYS `LITTLE PROGRESS’ MADE RECENTLY IN FISCAL CLIFF TALKS***

There you have it, children from the interwebs. Your government is raping you again, depleting the value of your investments because they are all drug addled perverts, corrupted by money, power and God complexes.

UPDATE: I sold out of NXPI, putting cash levels back to 40%.

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We’re Living in a Costanza World

So the bankrupt Greek economy has produced a bull market in 2012, with the Athens exchange up 25% year to date. On the other side of the ledger, creditor nation, China, is down 10%. We live in interesting times.

The new head of the BOE is a good ol’ chap from Goldman Ballsachs. Such a brazen act of patronage calls for a 5 second golf clap.

The status quo is the desired outcome here. The power elite want the market to go up, and they want countries like Greece to default, without having to actually declare it. Essentially, they want to have their cakes and eat them too. It’s clear to me, as of right now, the market has no intention of trading lower. Perhaps it can trade lower tomorrow, amidst rumors of war and fiscal malfeasance. But for today, we are going north.

I purchased shares of UA–because I like large cap short squeeze ideas. Other stocks that fit the criteria are LEN, LULU and FB. Out of 4,000 stocks in The PPT database, just 4 fit the large cap short squeeze criteria–definitely something to behold.

I added to my SWHC position because the south is going to secede from the union and march an army of militia into DC to arrest President Obama. I cannot think of a reason to sell RGR, SWHC into economic and social upheaval.

Lastly, I’m a big fan of the homebuilders, and anything to do with construction. I haven’t ‘sacked up’ yet to buy into the bull run, aside from the occasional BZH trade. But it is my belief that residential construction is on the rise again. Homies like BZH, HOV, LEN, RYL, PHM and SPF should continue to rise as credit becomes available to qualified buyers. Inventories are low and rates are a steal.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vyb5dkQZPw 603 500]

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Chase For Performance Versus THE FISCAL CLIFF

The ultimate show down approaches, with the month of December. Billions of hedge fund dollars will go back to work this holiday season, in a last ditch effort to chase performance and salvage the year. The overall economy is “meh”, but the stock market is fixed–helped by the Fed. That’s the upside.

The downside is a tragic amount of tax hikes looming in 2013. Most people believe there is no way the government will let it happen. Why not? It will add $500 billion to the “revenue side”, alleviating budget constraints, so that the government can spend even MOAR.

Ask yourself these questions:

Did the government fuck up with the TARP vote?

Did the government fuck up with the debt ceiling extension?

Those were simple, straightforward propositions. The fiscal cliff is far more complex. I am expecting a dysfunctional government to once again reemerge as the dominant factor in fucking shareholders.

I’m already at 40% cash, so there isn’t much for me to sell up here. I might even take out a few trades, providing the uptrend continues. But rest assured, your government will fuck this up and markets will panic because of it.

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Squeeze Plays

Markets that defy gravity are perfect for squeezing shorts–because they cannot hold onto their shares as the market performs illogical feats of magic. Case in point: VHC ripped the chest hairs off shorts today, for little to no reason. It’s true the stock shouldn’t have been sold off in the first place. Nevertheless, today’s punch in the face makes for good conversation.

You know my position: 40% cash, 60% long, of which half of that is in VHC. I am very cautious here, but will never entertain the idea of going short. Short selling is for fucktards. I’d rather be in cash, watching everyone else die, than get my hands dirty.

At any rate, courtesy of The PPT, here is a group of stocks that have been identified as being in ‘short squeeze mode.’

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Sticking to the Plan

I sold out of WNR this morning, putting me at 40% cash. AAPL is leading the nasdaq higher and complacency is very high. I don’t expect the market to get crushed, until AFTER the New Year’s. Consider the period between now and then a twilight of sorts.

On a more optimistic note, I like smartphone derivative plays heading into the pagan holidays, specifically NXPI, AVGO and RFMD.

Despite the tepid tone to the market, breadth is under 40% for the day and utilities are the top performers. This is not exactly a healthy backdrop for a continued run.

I am holding large positions in VHC, EXK, NXPI and SWHC. I regret not buying YELP when it was lower. And I am shocked to see DECK all the way back, following a horrendous quarterly report. The market is always filled with surprises, so one never knows exactly what’s in store. All we can do is make educated guesses, try to avoid making stupid errors, and bet big when the odds are optimal.

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Jump Up To Enter the Helicopter Blades

Last month, almost to the day, the markets topped out–leaving bulls strewn across Wall Street, like some sort of degenerate trash. The fat faces on CNBC didn’t know what the fuck was going on, but I did. Over the past two weeks, markets have stabilized and surged into light volume, tryptamine induced, gluttony.

The bad news (fiscal cliff, really fucked up economy for another 4 years etc) has magically morphed into a catalyst to drive stocks higher–based upon the hopes of a deal. But you know our government, always opting for the dramatic course of action instead of the logical. We have elected monkeys dressed in fancy suits, who throw bananas at one another and ask us to clean up the mess. They intend to “tax the rich” in order to “create jobs”, spearheaded by unions, who will then finance their reelection campaigns. It is the ultimate circle jerk.

So as the markets figure out that the fiscal cliff is not only a risk but a reality, I strongly suggest ‘vamoosing’ out of high risk plays in exchange for a “Hugh Hendry” styled portfolio.

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The Bear Market Will Resume Shortly

We had a nice respite, courtesy of the Turkey Gods. But now it’s time to sit back and enjoy watching an illiterate America get pushed over “the fiscal cliff.” Dicks will be removed and accounts destroyed. Satan Claus is coming and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Pagan X-mas shopping is underway, so losses will be muted. But rest assured, as soon as 2013 arrives the market is going to be in catastrophe mode, leaving the lot of you– conversing about the markets on homosexual social networking sites– in a state of catatonic stupidity.

I will be selling this week.

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