Why I’m Super Bullish on $VHC

If Apple was going to appeal, they’d tell the good judge and VHC to fuck themselves and permit the judge to pass judgement. The whole holiday sales request is a bunch of horseshit. Why would the judge need updated sales figures from the largest company in the world, scheduled to report over $54 billion in sales THIS QUARTER?

He doesn’t.

This is simply a way to give Apple more time to agree to a settlement.

The judge would not have done this if he felt the Apple attorneys were insincere. He can only be doing this, granting them a stay of execution, because the good folks over at Apple have convinced him that they are serious about reaching a settlement agreement.

Mark my words, this is a watershed moment for VHC. After Apple settles, all other ducks will fall in line. From CSCO to Samsung, settlements and licensing deals will be snatched, like a gold chain in Harlem.

As for the trading in the stock: atrocious. I don’t like whining about manipulation because it makes you look crazy. But this stock is being walked down on 100 share orders all day long. There isn’t any real volume, all phantom.

I’ll be buying more tomorrow and on any dips. However, I’m fairly confident that after people get a chance to digest what just happened and what the implications might mean for VHC, this stock is heading back up again, right through its all-time highs.

I don’t want to make this about me–because we’re all intertwined. But I have a certain ‘galactic presence’ here on the planet earth. For many years the sun shined on my face, as I typed fast–consuming unhealthy amounts of rib eyed steaks and monster energy soda. I could throw all of my money into the sea, then recover it all in an afternoon fishing expedition.

I do remember the pangs of misery, seeing my short positions get obliterated in late 2007, only to be vindicated and baptized in the blood of my enemies in January of 2008. But all of that is gone now. Although I am up for 2012, in the range of 16%, the fun has been sucked out (no blowjob) of the game, leaving me to edify myself with the memories of yesterday, trying to convince myself that they will come back.

I’ve been inured to dealing with halfway retarded CEO’s and coxcombical hedge fund managers intent on manipulating share prices for the purposes of self-aggrandizement.

The industry of stocks and bonds is as stupid as ever. Bear witness to analyst coverage sashaying (extra homo) in and out between the absurd intertwix with felonious profligacy.

I only remain in the markets to see it through, escutcheoned by owlish wisdom, accumulated by participating in 20+ years of stock market sweepstakes.

The luxuriant life of Le Fly can only be sustained, mind you, by the trail of tears provided by his enemies.

No more shall be said.

Since last week, the company has been in mediation with the thieves over at AAPL. Tomorrow it all ends and the good judge will rule. The likely scenario is NO settlement, the judge slaps an injunction on AAPL; in turn, AAPL will file for an appeal. The news of an appeal may accompany a clever update from a Herb on the street, which might juxtapose with the reality on the ground, which is winship, and hit the stock with a bit of fright.

Rest assured, Herb is only interested in parlour tricks when it comes to VHC.

The only chance in red hell for Apple is a reversal of opinion at the patent office, which would temporarily toss VHC shareholders into the proverbial ‘fag box.’

But that’s not likely to happen.

If the stock gets hit on news of an AAPL appeal, simply buy the dips. The company is scheduled to throw CSCO into a lit fireplace in March, which should result in a $500 mill+ judgement. After that, expect VHC to sue others, merrily collecting damages along the way.

But the way this story gets past the courtroom is settlements + licensing agreements. The more they win, the more likely they will accomplish this stated goal, rewarding its shareholders with magnanimous returns.

If you are scared, a little yellow in the belly like Chuckard Bennett, go ahead and hedge your position with puts or sell some. I am prepared to endure some downside, as long as the core story remains the same.

The insidious CHUCK BENNETT sold some VHC today because he’s afraid. Afraid of what the judge might say. Afraid of what Apple might say. Truth be told, VHC is a man’s stock, one that embodies cigar smoke and single malt liquor. It’s not for the faint of heart and those who have weak hands and knees.

It’s for closers, only.

Stocks dove today, but had little effect on my stocks. I’ve concluded it to be in my best interest to avoid US stocks, unless they’re from the coal industry. “The Fly” has decided to become the Emperor of Japan, fanatical bull on any and all exporters.

Nevertheless, we’ve come to the end of the road here, as the time in 2012 is almost up. The direction of the market will ebb and flow with the caprices of speculators. Just yesterday, The PPT flagged an OB signal–but it shouldn’t be feared to any large degree. I don’t believe we’re going much lower, at least not yet. We will trade the range and then jump off a cliff in 2013.

Sounds exciting.

If we go up in 2013, Japanese equities are my favored picks, thanks in part to the newly elected government’s plan to stimulate by 10-15 trillion yen. Aside from manipulating the yen lower, the LDP isn’t fucking around with China and intends to bulk up on defense spending, as well as domestic infrastructure spending. They’ve ordered the Bank of Japan to ‘bend the knee’, laying the ground work for a renaissance in Japanese equities.

Exporters should do best, as the rise of foreign currencies boosts earnings. You can short the yen via YCS.

My top pick is HMC, followed by TM. Those are the lay ups.

Some others stocks on my radar include KUB, NMR, MTU, CAJ and SNE. Truth be told, there aren’t any expensive Japanese stocks that are traded in the US. All of them trade under 2x sales.

If individual equities isn’t your thing, consider ETFs NKY, JOF or EWJ.

I’ll be advantageously bulking up on HMC until it is my largest position.

Reduces Herb Greenberg to stuttering, starting 2:20

Shuts down some fucktard Professor (starts at 2:00)

The Fiscal Cliff

‘GO AHEAD, RAISE MY TAXES‘ “Get the little guys off the table”

I’m trying to mellow out after booking a 7 figure loss in SWHC.  It wasn’t working before Sandybrook. It was going to be my top idea for 2013, poised to crrrush earnings estimates from here until 2014. Instead, I had to sell it. You might think I am upset over having to sell it–but I’m not.

Stocks are like women when you’re a teenager, interchangeable. I don’t need to hold XYZ when ABC is looking damn good.

After taking SWHC off the books, my EXK position took on water, as silver and gold got hit. I warned you about owning gold and silver into a mature rally. People sell them to buy high growth stocks, like VMW and RAX. Gold and silver should be bought at the depths of a sell off into the initial reflation move higher. I’m in EXK for longer than a month, so dealing with the volatility is part of the waiting game.

Everything else went straight up, spearheaded by my BZH, killer bees putting bears into emergency rooms. My largest position, VHC, lifted, as well as CROX, FB, NAK and ADTN.

I started positions in HMC, RS and AAPL today, opinionated with strong emotions that Japan is going to lead all world indices higher in 2013.

One last thing, SAFM smashed earnings last night. Look for BIG Q1, 2013 numbers out of protein plays PPC and SFD.

I literally had a mini client revolt this morning, with my larger share holders demanding immediate sale of SWHC. What could my rebuttal have been? “Wait until this whole thing blows over, SWHC will be hitting new highs in no time at all?”

Shit, I couldn’t muster up the arrogance to explain that SWHC is likely 100% undervalued. It doesn’t matter. They don’t want to make money in the stock. I imagine a lot of people are facing a similar dilemma today and will continue to ponder the meaning of being long a gun maker, post Newtown. Truth be told, I am happy to be done with it, even though it resulted in a massive, stinging, loss of more than 20%.

The only thing left to do is to move on and pick up the pieces.

With the proceeds, I doubled my BZH position and started a new one in HMC, as part of my long Japan thesis. Other Japanese stock of interest are NMR, TM and even SNE.

Bottom line: I fucked up and should’ve sold SWHC on Friday. Frankly, I was in a state of shock and really didn’t feel like addressing the issue. But I’m done with it now and will try my best to regain the losses.

The end of December could be a very frustrating time for investors, as fund managers whip-saw in and out of stocks to dress their windows. They want to appeal to their investors, afraid of redemptions, so they sell losers and buy winners. Often times really good names get sold the fuck down, to the depths of hell, due to this practice. More often than not, oversold names bounce and bounce hard during the month of January, as the facade of window dressing is removed, leaving fund managers naked and without ideas.

Did you know XIV (short volatility) was +199% in 2012? I’m telling you now, buying XIV everyday is a sure way to billions.

So what sectors will be pumped and dumped?

I believe financials and construction plays will be bought, while basic material and richly valued tech sold the fuck down. As always, REITs will be bought and natural gas kicked to the side, like dogs in China.

Just know, if your stupid stocks are behaving badly, for no good reason, they’re being dumped for tax losses, removed from the marketing materials at some fucktard mutual fund.

I’m just a damned finance blogger/manager of other people’s money. I keep getting sucked into political debates because it’s in my nature to voice strong opinions. The truth is, everyone is bugging out over what happened in Newtown. Before this happened, the country was already a mess, reeling from a slow motion economic collapse and methodical compression of the middle to upper middle classes. This country is about to change, veering down a very dark road, and it’ll be decidedly for the worse.

Your government is monitoring every single thing you are communicating, even through private emails. Bots are being used to search out keywords and your exact GPS location. Whenever you utter a string of words in a certain sequence that can be viewed as a “threat”, your home is raided and your property is seized. We the people accept this form of fascism because the people perpetuating these crimes against etiquette are distasteful and we revile them. Freedom of speech can be rather expensive if shopped in the wrong manner.

I am sure that “The Fly” is on a watch list of dissidents, waiting on my every word and syllable.

Truth is, I should learn to keep my opinions to myself, particularly regarding subjects that do not concern me. Do you really think our little debate about gun control is going to make a difference? It’s laughable, really. They will do whatever they want to do and you and I will just sit here, twisting in the wind with our dicks in our hands, watching them make law with their pens. To sit here and drag their fine names through the mud can only hurt us. There is no revenue to be had from being a partisan dissident.

Let the winds of tyranny blow through America, with the same ease and vigor that they were expelled many years ago. From now on, Le Fly (as he is famously known in France) will stay focused on his p n l, which needs a bit of tending to–frankly.