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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

The Light Shall Set You $CREE

Apple reports earnings after the bell. Despite the weakness in the stocks, I have to believe the company will surprise to the upside. My belief stems from the companies track record, not so much analyst chatter.

Coach is being decimated this morning to the tune of 16%. I can tell you that KORS is eating their lunch inside of America’s shopping malls; but people will probably sell KORS today as well. One thing is for certain, COH is just like DECK–old, legacy, semi-lux brand gone stupid.

My favorite earnings call was CREE. They poleaxed analyst estimates. I am telling you now, purely from an anecdotal standpoint, CREE is the future of lighting. Look what I did in my house. I discarded with the 60 watt incandescent hi-hats in exchange for a 9 watt lamps made by CREE. They emit the same or more lumens and last 30,000 hours aka  for “life.” I will never need to change them and they do not emit heat, which is a huge plus when you have 30 of them beaming down in your basement.

LED lighting is the future for any city looking to upgrade to a better, cleaner, more sustainable technology and CREE is the dominating company in the space. The company has had hiccups due to Chinese phantom city delays. But perhaps they’ve turned the corner for good, following such a superb quarter.

Other LED plays of note are AIXG, VECO, RBCN, POWR and lotto play LEDS. Frankly, there are a ton of companies that contribute a part here and a part there, but CREE is your pure play with momentum.

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By Law: We Cannot Go Lower

Keep in mind, we are always subject to the occasional drift and individual names are game to be had and dismembered. But if you put your beastly greed aside and bought only mega-cap stocks, you might find your relationship with time and money to be much more pleasurable. Dare I say, the market will continue to go higher until it cannot go anymore.

There are two things that are assured.

1. Japan will attempt to reflate.

2. The US housing market will continue to recover.

My favorite way to play Japan has been changed from HMC to WETF. My assets will be transferred there accordingly. And, my favorite ways to profit from housing is through wall board, pipes, windows and of course kitchen cabinetry. Look no further than FBHS and USG for your housing fix. On the mortgage side of things, ELLI is my play.

Let’s not forget Goldman Sachs is by far my safest and most reliable pick for 2013, as they are destined to control all and profit from everything good and bad.

The essence of the “The Fly” can be found in these names, alongside VHC. But just know, the profits from VHC will serve to fund these ideas throughout 2013. These steps have already been taken in the future–you just haven’t seen it yet.

 

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Showtime for $VHC

Even though I pray to the Lord every night for the proprietors of the website known as “SeekingAlpha” be vaporized into cosmic dust, there was a decent article posted today, summarizing the turn of events with regards to AAPL v VHC.

Here is an excerpt:

 

VirnetX (VHC) has taken on the largest technology giant in the world for infringing on their very valuable patents. Many investors believe that taking on a company so large and powerful could have serious repercussions to the strength of the company’s patents if they did not prove infringement in court, although, they did prove infringement to the tune of $368 million as a start.

This is not the first time VHC has been in court with a powerful technology company. In 2010, VHC secured a $200 million settlement from Microsoft (MSFT). At first, the jury in the Microsoft case awarded VHC $105.75 million on March 16, 2010. Soon after, on March 18, 2010, VHC filed a follow-up lawsuit against MSFT for patent infringement regarding Windows 7. Windows 7 was not included in the first lawsuit because it was released in 2009, while the first lawsuit was filed in June of 2008. Two months later, on May 17, 2010, Microsoft settled with VHC for $200 million to cover both legal suits. The Microsoft case is a near mirror image to the lawsuit with Apple (AAPL).

After securing a $368 million victory against AAPL on November 6, 2012, VHC announced a new lawsuit on November 9, 2012 which included the iPhone 5, iPod Touch 5th Generation, iPad 4th Generation, iPad Mini, and the latest Macintosh computers. These products were not included in the first lawsuit due to their release dates being after when the first lawsuit was filed. VHC is sighted to win the second lawsuit due to the fact that the same patent infringement that was argued in the first case is being argued in the second case – just against the newer products. Company press releases regarding the victory can be found here and the newly filed lawsuit can be found here.

On January 4, 2013 Judge Davis ordered AAPL to provide up-to-date sales figures for newly-released infringing products including the iPhone 5 by January 10, 2013 at the earliest, but no later than January 15, 2013. This would put to rest the argument of sunset damages. AAPL filed the sales information minutes before midnight on January 15, 2013 as shown in Pacer docket number 647 that can be viewed here. The Judge can more than see AAPL filing at the 11th hour, not a good idea to get on the bad side of a judge. The Judge can enact a permanent injunction if AAPL does not settle, and after the Maps dilemma in 2012, AAPL should seek to avoid negative press of having problems with Facetime and Imessage. Many intelligent posters on Investor Village believe the Judge already has his judgment formula ready, he just needs the new sales information to fill in the blanks. It is my opinion that the final judgment will be significantly higher than the first verdict and the second trial will be avoided due to settlement. On another note, the trial with Cisco (CSCO) is slated for March. VHC is seeking willful infringement with treble damages. This should be an easy win for McKool Smith again, since the willful infringement is described in Cisco’s product manuals. The case against Cisco also includes a much broader scope of product infringement and more accused products.

That only leaves one question–where is Kendall Larson’s opinion about negotiations with AAPL? It is hard to guess, but in my opinion Kendall Larson has, since early on, stated that the rate would be higher if the case went on to a trial. Say 1% before a trial and 1.5% if a trial had occurred, for example, in this case it has. Kendall Larson may also believe that arguing for an injunction, mixed with his belief that the rate will be higher since they did not settle pre-trial, will grant them an even higher rate than simply arguing for a compulsory rate to begin with. This is because Kendall Larson can negotiate a much higher rate and settlement amount when AAPL is faced with the inevitable threat of an injunction. AAPL claims they could comply with this in court to achieve a lower judgment, but in reality they cannot. AAPL argued that a workaround would be easy to comply with in court to diminish the value of VHC’s patents. Although, after losing the case, AAPL changed their stance saying an injunction would take 12-18 months and cost millions of dollars.

Full Article

Naturally I agree with everything that fine chap had to say in the article linked above. But that’s just me talking my book. You be the judge.

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Fly Buy: $FBHS, $GS

I added to my FBHS and GS positions and sold out of JRCC.

Disclaimer: If you buy this stock because of this post, you will suffer from erectile dysfunction for the remainder of your life. And, you may lose money.

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A Better Way to Play Japan

 

I’ve been researching ways to play Japan, with a goal to maximize upside while limited downside. I trimmed my HMC position today and sold out of SNE on Friday, so my Samurai exposure is quite limited at this moment in time. The yen is rallying, so naturally everyone is panicked out. When doing my homework in trying to limit my downside to Japan, choices were very limited due to the lack of Japanese stocks traded here. See unlike the Chinese fraudsters, the Japanese don’t care for our markets because they’re not looking to rip people off via accounting fraud gimmicks.

All roads led to ETFs, specially DXJ. It’s a fine blend of short yen, long Japanese equities and is likely the best way to play the reflation of Japan.

It’s no secret that asset managers do better than their investors. Just look at the shares of BEN, TROW, BLK or even GS and compare their stock returns to the returns of their funds and dollars to donuts says the stock did better. When asset managers are doing well, investors flock to them, helping to balloon their assets under management, which translates into a stronger bottom line.

Enter Wisdom Tree.

Wisdom Tree has been an innovator in managed ETFs. Their AUM are at record highs of $20 billion, thanks in large part of DXJ–which now has over $2 billion committed to it by investors. A staggering $576 million of inflows was reported the week ending 1/17, thanks to the popularity of the long Japan/short Yen thesis.

Providing this trend in Japan continues, WETF is going to be a major beneficiary, without having the risk of earnings shortfalls by Japanese corporations who are attempting turn arounds.

Considering the facts on the ground, I see very little risk to a downside earnings surprise in WETF. Moreover, as their ETFs gain popularity, the parent company will become an attractive takeover candidate for any asset management firm looking to broaden their ETF exposure.

I started a position in WETF this morning.

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This is Not a Success Story

Now that I’ve told you a little be about my past, do not think for a moment that my future is secure. In my opinion, I haven’t accomplished much more than removing myself from a life of catastrophic poverty. I’ve made some money along the way–but not enough to own an aircraft carrier or self-fund intergalactic war on behalf of the human race, for example. I am still young, only 36. It’s an interesting age, mind you. It’s old in the sense that you’re not supposed to be single (which I am not) or venture out to degenerate bars/clubs whoring for women any longer. But in the business world, 36 is the age when most men start to make their fortunes.

Traditionally, men work hard from 25-50, then enjoy a life of leisure until they are dead, leaving only a legacy and money in memoriam.

“The Fly” intends to work smart much more than hard, as it is his birth right to enjoy the superfluities of excess before the decrepit age of 50. While most of you punch clocks and shovel manure into fields of tomatoes, Le Fly is sipping on a small glass of sherry, listening to his favorite classical pieces.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk2kfD5ZKls

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The Important Matter of the Series 7 Examination

After I left the firm of the wooden leads, my goal was to find a firm who’d sponsor me for the series 7 exam. The name of the firm was unimportant, just as long as I could buy and sell stocks. By that time, I’d been trading stocks–successfully– for many years, as I came into some money from an annuity that was set aside for me when I was only 4 years old. It’s not what you think. The money was won in a civil suit against a bar owner–  because my father was killed in cold blood by the establishment’s  bar tender.

My Mother set up the annuity so that it would be released to me when I was 18. My share was very little, but I used it to invest in the market. I’d been interested in stocks since I was 10 years old and had made small investments, with zero success, throughout the years. When I was a teenager, my best friend and I would play stock market, paper trading off of the events of the trading session with paper and pencil. By the time I was 18, I knew almost every stock symbol by heart and had a fair understanding of what made stocks move. I was ready to play. The first thing I did with my share was buy AMER, the ticker symbol of the original America Online. I did so, against the advice of all of NYC’s pension fund managers working for the NYC Comptrollers office, during my summer internship.

The top boss at the time warned me that MSFT would take over the space and that AMER was “nothing more than a fad.” As an aside, Jay Z’s mother worked in that office too, as a NYC municipal bond trader. I was the only one in the office who knew her son, since I was an avid fan in the arts of “underground rap music”– at that moment in time.

Needless to say, I was right about AMER; but it took a very long time to materialize. By 2000, my $6,000 investment ballooned to $250k. That’s how early I was to AMER.

Back to the subject at hand. I took at job at a firm, located at 17 State street in NYC, overlooking the water. It was a beautiful building, with a magnificent view. I really loved the office space. My new boss was not a big broker, but big enough to hire myself and two of my friends from “the wooden lead firm.”

We were the only one’s working at that place. All of the big brokers were holed up in offices and the pikers in the boardroom had little desire to do anything but get by.

As promised, I was sponsored to take my series 7 and given two weeks of “paid vacation” to study and hopefully pass it. I remember the evening before my exam like it was yesterday. My broker called me up and said “stop studying. This is it. Go drink a glass of wine, relax and do your best.” The next day I passed the exam and was given the privilege to recommend and sell securities to the public.

Aside from pitching new accounts for my broker, I had transferred my brokerage account to his rep, since I was not able to manage accounts yet. After I passed the series 7, I was obligated to this fine chap to open up 25 new accounts for him before I was given the right to manage my own business. It’s a right of passage thing and I believed it was a worthwhile experience.

I made 12 successful trades in a row and it shocked my broker. The bastard was making me pay $100 commissions per trade, so I was pretty much working for free. My gains became so prolific, the bigger brokers at the firm started to copy my trades. I was flattered and excited to contribute; but I was also bitter as hell because I wanted to get out from under his tutelage. As much as I liked him, I felt he was my inferior, in both money management skills and salesmanship. He had little to offer me, with exception to a $350 per week salary. It was a stretch for him. He liked the idea of having myself and two others work for him, as he too dreamed of getting big and starting his own firm. But his gross commissions couldn’t support the staff, no matter how many new accounts I opened for him, which was 8 in month 1.

He shared an office with two brokers, one legendary amongst the people who knew him. They were very big producers and my broker was obsessed with learning from them. Instead of working, he’d sit in the office with a pen and pad, listening to every word the other two brokers uttered when talking to accounts–jotting everything he heard down so that he could share it with me later. One day I walked in and he had a nervous breakdown. With tears streaming down his face, he was saying to himself “I can’t do this anymore. I am running out of money.” Everyone just looked at him with pity; but I knew it was time to make arrangements to leave.

While in my second month pitching new accounts there, I met a truly amazing talent. But it was wasted and I lost faith in him rather quickly.

I had made up my mind. It was time to leave the firm and find a place that would permit me to manage my own accounts. I wanted to fulfill my end of the bargain, however, and open up 25 accounts promised to my broker. I looked at it as a learning experience. If I could open up 10 accounts, I could open up 100. I worked frantically, from 8am until midnight, almost every single night. I didn’t have any cold callers to feed me qualified leads, so I did it myself in the daytime and pitched accounts at night. My wife hated me, since I was never home to see her and our newborn. We nearly split up a dozen times, but held it together because we’re both traditional minded people.

One day my broker asked me to hang up the phone and to see him in his office. I was pissed off by this because I was in the middle of pitching a new account. When I got to his office, he was asking his office mates what they wanted from Starbucks, then proceeded to relay this dreadful message to me. Without a seconds delay, my response was “go f*ck yourself.” I told him “I don’t waste time fetching coffee for anyone. If you want coffee, you’re gonna have to get it yourself.”

Words cannot express how mad and slighted I felt at the time. I felt under-appreciated and humiliated. These traits were likely picked up from my pistol packing grandfather, who was  known to pistol whip the other old men in the sitting area for looking at him funny.

After that day, I resigned and continued my journey at another firm and was fired from that fine establishment, which turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to me (part 2, part 3)

The story continues, as I am not dead just yet.

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The Important Matter of Wood Leads

In a brokerage firm there is a hierarchy.  There is the boss, partners, senior brokers, junior brokers, account openers and the lowly cold callers. The cold callers work for the account openers, who work for the senior brokers. The junior brokers, generally speaking, are new and without coin. Therefore, they are pikers and cannot afford to staff up.

When I was a cold caller, I got paid $190 per week, working for the biggest broker at the firm, who employed an army of 6 account openers, a dedicated secretary, and about 10 cold callers. Typically, account openers were paid the princely sum of $400-500 per week. It was a machine. The cold callers got around 5-10 leads per day, which was then passed onto the account openers, who’d open 1 out of every 10 leads. After the account was opened, the senior broker would “second trade” the new account and try to raise big money. In the event the new account was a dead end, he’d send the account to junior broker to work, splitting the commissions 50/50.

In the brokerage business, time is money and senior brokers don’t have time to waste on clients who are small or unwillingly to gamble recklessly with his life savings.

This firm that I worked for was the Godfather of high sales tactic mentoring for young aspiring brokers out of college. It was a place that can never be duplicated, because it was the thing of legend.

The firm was situated so that every broker, big and small, was in the boardroom. There were no corners or cubicles. It was like a giant airplane hanger with men smiling and dialing, pitching people so that they could meet their monthly lease payments. There was about 100 brokers, 50-75 account openers and another 100 cold callers, all in one giant room. Only management had offices–but they were rarely in them– since they’d prefer to police the floor for brokers violating rules, such as looking at charts or not dialing for a period longer than 1 minute. EVERYONE was pitching, non-stop, from morning to night.

You had one job to do at this firm and that was to sell. We were told, ad nauseum “we’re not fund managers here. We are here to sell stock. That’s it.”

Morning meetings started at 8 am sharp. If you were a broker and walked in late, while one of the partners was giving a speech (always by way of microphone, at a podium), you were fined $1,000. If you were a lowly cold caller or account opener, more often than not, you were fired for such an offense. I recall getting off the train at 7:58, knowing that I wouldn’t make it in on time and resolving such a crisis by hopping back on the train and calling in sick. It’s also worth noting that this firm practiced Darwinism with regards to the amount of chairs/desks available in the cold caller pits. There was always 5-10 less chairs/desks available than actual employees. Those who didn’t have a chair were tardier than the others– and was sent home without pay.

If you were still on the phone as the meeting began, your phone call was put on the speaker system for everyone to hear. Everything you said was critiqued by just about everyone, especially the bosses. The top partner, who gave the morning and evening meetings, would often walk over to the person who was pitching and feed him lines. If that didn’t work, sometimes he’d take the phone from him and convince the guy on the other end of the phone to buy stock. Like I said, it was surreal.

After the meetings, it was time to get to work. Being a lowly, unlicensed cold caller, I was not permitted to solicit stocks. My job was to call as many people as I could, from leads provided to me by my senior broker, and qualify them. Some brokers are more lenient than others in this regard. But my broker insisted that a qualified lead meant the gent had to have 500k+ in the market, did business with more than one firm, and was receptive to doing business over the phone. You had to find out at least one stock that he owned and what firms he did business with. It was imperative that this information be credible, else the account opener would look stupid and lose the initiative when making a sales call.

Generally speaking, an account opener would call a “new lead” after literature was mailed out and introduce himself by saying “you spoke to an associate of mine and you said you owned 5,000 shares of GE with Piper Jaffrey, is that still the case?” Now if the information wasn’t accurate and the “lead” said “no I don’t know what you’re talking about”– the account opener would have to re-qualify that lead, which pretty much meant the sale was dead.

Cold callers were under intense pressure to get leads. During lunch, senior brokers would visit our confines to “skill mill.” Essentially, he’d teach us how to talk to people with money and test us by randomly picking on one of us to pitch him. You had to get up in front of 100+ cold callers and qualify the senior broker, who, more often than not, was completely irrational–just to make life hard for whoever was pitching him. We did this three times per day, morning, lunch and after the close.

If you didn’t get 5-10 leads per day, you were not going to earn the right to study for your series 7 and start making the real money. And, you’d probably get fired. Most cold callers were miscreants of the first order, totally devoid of honor and integrity. They’d simply make up stuff, write it on an index card, and hand it in. They hoped to guess right, putting popular stocks like Lucent and Microsoft on the lead, but it backfired very, very often.

If your lead was bad, it was called “wood.” If you gave your account opener a wood lead, he’d walk over to you, rip it up and throw it in your face. If you did it again, you were fired.

I made it a point to never lie about the leads that I got. I took pride in my leads and worked until midnight, if need be, to get 10 leads per day. No one worked longer hours than me because no one was as hungry as me, living in a basement apartment in Brooklyn with my wife and new born son. My family didn’t have money, since my Grandfather decided it was a good idea to burn his furniture stores down, as some sort of idiotic insurance racket. Shortly thereafter, he lost his vision and was unable to work. Karma can bite hard sometimes.

So I had no choice but to bank coin, else I’d end up being a loser and that was not part of my gameplan.

After nine months of working at this stock broker pressure cooker, I was granted the right to study for my series 7. It was a major accomplishment. I had to pitch the CEO of the firm for such a privilege.  Things were going well and I knew it was only a matter of time before I too would be making 200k per month. I knew how to sell and that was all that mattered, at least that’s what I thought at the time.

Then one day a junior rep, who looked like a leprechaun, walked over to my cold caller desk, ripped up a lead and threw it in my face. He said “stop writing wood” and walked away. Back then I had a very bad temper, being that I felt the world was always working against me. So I got up, walked over to my senior broker, who I respected immensely, and quit. He called me that evening in an attempt to get me back, but I was gone. I couldn’t go back to that place after being insulted–a small pet peeve of mine picked up by my Italian Grandfather who fancied arson to get ahead in life.

By the end of that week, I had a new gig at a much smaller firm, working for a much smaller broker, who once tried to order me to get him coffee. That didn’t work out well for him.

To be continued.

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The Best of iBankCoin This Week, 1/13-1/19/12

Fly

Statement from $VHC Regarding Patent News

The Biggest Story Never Told

Citizens: Hand in Your Guns

Chess

Be the Casino

Stock #Market Recap 01/14/13 {Video}

Find the Best View Possible

RC

4 Trading Ideas This Week

Learn Your History

4 Trading Ideas For Tuesday

Wood

Volatility-Based Allocation

How the Hell Are They Teaching Math These Days?

Rhino

That Close Told the Story

Rhino’s Ridiculous Watchlist

Elizamae

Interested in Buying AAPL Here?

Portfolio: 01/15/13; also Reminiscing About Years Past

Raul3

The Chicken Cometh

EVERYTHING GOES HIGHER

Caine Thaler

The Future Of RGR And Guns In America

On The Subject Of Spineless Shareholders

Scott Bleier

Ding Ding Ding

News

ANOTHER COLLEGE FOOTBALL SCANDAL: Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o’s Dead Girlfriend Was a HOAX 

Michael Savage: Don’t trust feds on flu shot

Low Down Dirty Shame: Horse Meat Passed Off as Beef Burgers (Video) 

Gun Confiscation Bill Introduced in Congress

Nite Bird 

 

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Moving Away from Degeneracy

It appears my cold spell has been snapped like a frozen pretzel, evidenced by recent positions in the black. I’m in GS under $140 and booked double digit returns in SNE. I am +5% in HMC to the good, in size. Although it pulled back, I’m still up +2 on my massive VHC position.

Right out the gates, I am up on all of my new starters: ELLI, FBHS and USG.

Big time laggard, JRCC, shot higher today, melting the waxed faces of all of the coal bears with celebratory tones. And more, I had my stiff arm going today, tossing enemies into a maelstrom of horror. Lack of etiquette and deportment will not be tolerated here. Go play with your ballsacks over at Stocktwits and leave me alone.

And now to my point. I found my core thesis. It took awhile, listening to 60 hours of conference calls (thank you earningscast.com and your beautiful app) and reading endless research notes. I will divest from VHC, JRCC and NAV, in favor of a big bet on US housing. This is where I am most comfortable placing capital. I fade your pessimism and raise your obtuse behavior with a zap! from my Orbital Space Cannon (OSC).

This weekend, “The Fly” intends to drink, but nothing too excessive. I practice discretion and do not dwell in the cellars of degeneracy like the reading class on this site–gluttons feeding off genetically modified foodstuffs, grizzle, sweet coffee, and highly sugared energy sodas.

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