Thoughts on 7 Stocks

GDOT

There were many times I was tempted to get into this stock but those intraday fades resulting in the ugly upper wicks always scared me off.  My mistake.

GDOT

TPX

I still think there is time to get in on the Raul3 Special.

TPX

AIV

Maybe?  I’d like to see it overtake the recent breakout high at 30.85.

AIV

DAL

I have been waiting for my opportunity since early March, this may be it.

DAL

CSX

Prediction time: this stock will make an all-time high in 2013.

CSX

BLC

This stock has been calmly drifting sideways for almost 3 weeks.  My guess is that this is much higher 2 months from now.

BLC

MAS

This looks like another bullish setup.

MAS

-EM

 

Werewolf Bar Mitzvah

“Boys becoming men, men becoming wolves”

IMO, 30 Rock is the second greatest sitcom of all-time (behind Seinfeld).  I think NBC and parent company General Electric (GE) were idiotic to cancel the show.  What is not idiotic is how GE is performing today, which has led the stock squarely into the “buy z0ne”.  Chess profiled this stock a few weeks ago which prompted me to do some analysis and add it to my watchlist. Have a look at the weekly chart:

The stock tried to break through 23 back in October 2012 on several occasions, only to retreat into the high teens to regroup over the holiday months.  Now February is here and GE is poised for it’s highest close since October 2008.  We are entering a very thinly traded area between 23.5 and 26.5.

I will be watching to see how the stock handles today’s gap.  If I like what I see I am going to start building a position in this name in the coming days and weeks with an eye on it going to at least 27.

-EM

Wednesday’s (2/13) Top 10

A few new names have made their way onto the list, and (as mentioned yesterday) they are all financials.  The links will take you to the chartpin archive for each stock.  There you will find weekly charts (updated once/week) with each volume pocket highlighted.  Enjoy.

10. EWBC, 25.10

9. ACAS, 13.90

8. CNO, 11.10

7. GDOT, 14.80

6. CBI, 52.40

5. MGA, 54.20

4. CVD, 68.90

3. MDP, 38.10

2. RWT, 19.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Watchlist Mover: $MAS

The top gainer on my watchlist today is building materials provider Masco (MAS).  “The Fly” put out a bullish call on the name (along with anything housing related), and I thought I would dig a little deeper into this stock as it moves it’s way up the ranks (currently ranked #8).

Let’s take a look at the weekly chart:

Clearly, the stock is trading higher than at any point since September 2008.  As you can see, there is a clear lack of historical volume between 20 and 26.  Maybe this stock continues to run from here, but, as usual, I am looking for the stock to calmly digest this massive move.

Without a doubt MAS has certainly moved into the “buy zone”, but I have a very difficult time managing risk/reward when opening a position in a stock that is up over 13% for the day.  I would much rather wait and let the dust settle and observe…waiting for a better opportunity to pounce.

See my arduous observation of RWT for nearly a month before I decided to buy some shares; hence my approach with this stock will be very similar.  I believe there is room for a good 30% to the upside; therefore I am more than willing to wait for it to come to me before I get long.

-EM

Ode to a Stupid Company

Earlier today, esteemed gentleman Raul3 queried yours truly with the following:

Since I like to accommodate reader requests asap, I immediately dropped all “real” work to procure the ad hoc request of this iBC colleague.  Before I even pulled up the chart, I knew that this was going to be a bit more challenging to analyze using Price by Volume because there is a limited history.  ZNGA has been publicly traded for a little over a year, so we are going to go directly to the daily chart to provide us with the historical look that we desire.

Without further ado:

The volume pocket I have identified is (mostly) a result of that ridiculous near $2 gap from last July.  Since the stock had never traded in that area prior to the gap, there are literally no souls who have ever owned a share of this stock between 3.40 and 4.45…that was, until Friday (and today). Now, I’m not sure how the dynamics of supply and demand will affect a volume pocket that exists solely because of a gap.  If you are wondering why this stock is rocketing higher, well, this is as good of an explanation as any.

To the best of my knowledge, the rise in share price is not the result of a profitable (or decent) business model (just ask Rhino what he thinks about this company); however once a stock enters the volume void, trading based solely on fundamentals will likely lead to more frustration than success.

Nevertheless, based on my analysis, I see no reason why this stupid company cannot keep running to fill that gap up to about 4.5.  Once/if that happens, all bets are off and I would get the hell out of there with most of your profits intact.

-EM

Friday’s Top 10

From my volume pocket watchlist, here are my 10 favorite stocks:

(Ticker, watch price)

These are all daily charts, aside from the volume pocket and watch price, they remain unmarked for your own visual/technical interpretation.

10. MDP, 38.10

9. GDOT, 14.80

8. DEPO, 7.00

7. MBFI, 23.40

6. MGA, 54.20

5. GTN, 4.10

4. CVD, 68.90

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

The Top 10

Please pardon my tenor last evening when I sarcastically quipped about markets advancing 5% per month as the “new normal”.

Ah yes, recall those few gloomy hours on Monday afternoon.  You remember, that time when people were losing money on the stock exchange?  Men dressed in burlap and blue blazers were seen “talking hurriedly with crackers falling out of their mouths” (I can’t speak to that).

Then Benjamin Bernanke eased back in his study with a “Catch a Fire” sized spliff and was rumoured (sic) to have mentioned something about “bitches” and “getting (them) real good” (I can’t speak to that either).

Anyway, the ‘fun wagon’ left the station bright and early today and brought easy money to anyone with a brain, pulse and brokerage account (no offense to the shorts out there…but come on…).

There was some “moving” and “shaking” atop the leaderboard, leaving us with the following rundown:

Daily charts unless noted, links go to chartpin.

(Stock, Watch Price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GDOT, 14.80

WEEKLY

8. BG, 82.00

7. MGA, 54.20

6. CVD, 68.90

5. ALJ, 19.90

4. DEPO, 7.00

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Portfolio 02/04/13; A Word about “Watch Prices”

I would like to speak about the “watch level” prices that I highlight, previously in my watchlist updates and now in the “Top 10” posts that I have been producing in recent weeks.

When I first started on my analysis of volume pockets, one thing that really intrigued me was the ability to gauge the size of a potential move.  In an ideal world, if everything breaks as planned, then a price target can be set at the top of the volume void.  With the extremes of the volume pocket as our guide we can safely approximate the boundaries of the range in which we want to trade, thus we now have a baseline (bottom of the void) and a target (top of the void).

After years of reading, observation and experience I have come to find that the “easy money” (relative term) is made in the middle of a lengthy bull (or bear…but on a much shorter time frame) move.  In other words, your probability for winning improves dramatically when you catch the ‘meat’ of a move versus trying call a top and/or a bottom.

Once the momentum is underway, my goal is to hitch on to that train and let it take me where it wants to go, which hopefully is in the direction I am speculating.  I have my risk parameters in place, I know that the stock is already moving in the direction that I want it to move in and I have an edge based on the fact that a supply/demand imbalance exists in the form of a lack of historical volume.

Ok, so back to the idea of catching the bulk of the move and how that relates to my “watch prices”.  I am interested in catching 70% of the move through the volume pocket.  This means that I place a 15% buffer on the bottom of the volume pocket and a 15% buffer on the top of the pocket.

With the remaining 70% I set up my “watch prices”.  Ideally, I want to build a position throughout the 70%, nibbling on bits here and there, having a full boat by the time we reach the top buffer level.  I break down the 70% region into 4 equally spaced buy zones.  This is what the “watch prices” signify.  Keep in mind that this doesn’t automatically mean that I’m going to buy the stock once these prices are hit.  In theory, one could do that and it probably would work just fine, but after using this method for a bit, I feel like I can control risk better through being more subjective with where I start a position and/or add shares.

The essence of this is (in theory) to build a position throughout the void.

As for my holdings:

  • AN has come in a bit since making an all-time high Friday on the gap higher.  I’m looking for more consolidation here and will probably add shares at some point TBD.
  • CBI has the look of a stock that wants to march higher but is being held back by a sluggish general market.  With a broad market rally, I see this moving through 52.5 with ease.
  • CTB looks to be slowly rolling over.  This will likely be liquidated shortly.
  • ESV is tightening up quite nicely.  As I monitor these stocks I continue to come across stocks that have spent 1-2 days marching higher only to pull back and consolidate in a calm and orderly fashion.  From a risk/reward standpoint, I feel like this is a better time to buy.
  • MRH is another stock that continues to defy the selloff in the broad market.  24 has acted as support for 2 weeks now, I’m looking for this to break much higher.  Unfortunately (for me trying to build a position), earnings are on Thursday after the close.  Therefore similar to how I traded AN, I will be liquidating 75% of my position prior to that time.
  • Yesterday I documented my desire to add more PCL based on how The PPT has handled the stock since the rally (in this name) started in November.  I held off due to the cascading of the market into the close, but this does look like a good place to add a bit.  Since I already bought a large chunk last week, if I do go through with it, the add will be small.  Additionally, this stock typically goes ex-div the second or third week in February (and pays 0.42 quarterly), so we have that to look forward to.
  • WGO appears to have hit a snag and is being closely monitored for liquidation.  I do not at all like how it broke down yesterday.

 

-EM

Watchlist: Top 10

Here is the latest from the front with a new twist added in for your enjoyment.

Instead of being sent to the the corresponding finviz page, when you click on the ticker link you will be taken to the chartpin page for the corresponding stock.  There you will find (starting with this week, well…this post, actually) a record of each time I publish a chart corresponding to that particular ticker (in addition to any other charts of that ticker, posted by chartpin users).

In this post, I’m going to stick with the typical 9.5 year weekly charts that accompany my analysis, but I will be posting 6 month-daily charts on chartpin (with no technical indicators, only the volume pocket ‘shadow’ and horizontal line corresponding to my “watch price”).

On this blog we count down.

(ticker, watch price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GE, 23.30

8. BG, 82.00

7. FSS, 8.60

6. CBI, 52.40

5. MGA, 54.20

4. RWT, 19.40

3. CVD. 68.90

2. DEPO, 7.00

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

Thoughts on 7 Stocks

GDOT

There were many times I was tempted to get into this stock but those intraday fades resulting in the ugly upper wicks always scared me off.  My mistake.

GDOT

TPX

I still think there is time to get in on the Raul3 Special.

TPX

AIV

Maybe?  I’d like to see it overtake the recent breakout high at 30.85.

AIV

DAL

I have been waiting for my opportunity since early March, this may be it.

DAL

CSX

Prediction time: this stock will make an all-time high in 2013.

CSX

BLC

This stock has been calmly drifting sideways for almost 3 weeks.  My guess is that this is much higher 2 months from now.

BLC

MAS

This looks like another bullish setup.

MAS

-EM

 

Werewolf Bar Mitzvah

“Boys becoming men, men becoming wolves”

IMO, 30 Rock is the second greatest sitcom of all-time (behind Seinfeld).  I think NBC and parent company General Electric (GE) were idiotic to cancel the show.  What is not idiotic is how GE is performing today, which has led the stock squarely into the “buy z0ne”.  Chess profiled this stock a few weeks ago which prompted me to do some analysis and add it to my watchlist. Have a look at the weekly chart:

The stock tried to break through 23 back in October 2012 on several occasions, only to retreat into the high teens to regroup over the holiday months.  Now February is here and GE is poised for it’s highest close since October 2008.  We are entering a very thinly traded area between 23.5 and 26.5.

I will be watching to see how the stock handles today’s gap.  If I like what I see I am going to start building a position in this name in the coming days and weeks with an eye on it going to at least 27.

-EM

Wednesday’s (2/13) Top 10

A few new names have made their way onto the list, and (as mentioned yesterday) they are all financials.  The links will take you to the chartpin archive for each stock.  There you will find weekly charts (updated once/week) with each volume pocket highlighted.  Enjoy.

10. EWBC, 25.10

9. ACAS, 13.90

8. CNO, 11.10

7. GDOT, 14.80

6. CBI, 52.40

5. MGA, 54.20

4. CVD, 68.90

3. MDP, 38.10

2. RWT, 19.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Watchlist Mover: $MAS

The top gainer on my watchlist today is building materials provider Masco (MAS).  “The Fly” put out a bullish call on the name (along with anything housing related), and I thought I would dig a little deeper into this stock as it moves it’s way up the ranks (currently ranked #8).

Let’s take a look at the weekly chart:

Clearly, the stock is trading higher than at any point since September 2008.  As you can see, there is a clear lack of historical volume between 20 and 26.  Maybe this stock continues to run from here, but, as usual, I am looking for the stock to calmly digest this massive move.

Without a doubt MAS has certainly moved into the “buy zone”, but I have a very difficult time managing risk/reward when opening a position in a stock that is up over 13% for the day.  I would much rather wait and let the dust settle and observe…waiting for a better opportunity to pounce.

See my arduous observation of RWT for nearly a month before I decided to buy some shares; hence my approach with this stock will be very similar.  I believe there is room for a good 30% to the upside; therefore I am more than willing to wait for it to come to me before I get long.

-EM

Ode to a Stupid Company

Earlier today, esteemed gentleman Raul3 queried yours truly with the following:

Since I like to accommodate reader requests asap, I immediately dropped all “real” work to procure the ad hoc request of this iBC colleague.  Before I even pulled up the chart, I knew that this was going to be a bit more challenging to analyze using Price by Volume because there is a limited history.  ZNGA has been publicly traded for a little over a year, so we are going to go directly to the daily chart to provide us with the historical look that we desire.

Without further ado:

The volume pocket I have identified is (mostly) a result of that ridiculous near $2 gap from last July.  Since the stock had never traded in that area prior to the gap, there are literally no souls who have ever owned a share of this stock between 3.40 and 4.45…that was, until Friday (and today). Now, I’m not sure how the dynamics of supply and demand will affect a volume pocket that exists solely because of a gap.  If you are wondering why this stock is rocketing higher, well, this is as good of an explanation as any.

To the best of my knowledge, the rise in share price is not the result of a profitable (or decent) business model (just ask Rhino what he thinks about this company); however once a stock enters the volume void, trading based solely on fundamentals will likely lead to more frustration than success.

Nevertheless, based on my analysis, I see no reason why this stupid company cannot keep running to fill that gap up to about 4.5.  Once/if that happens, all bets are off and I would get the hell out of there with most of your profits intact.

-EM

Friday’s Top 10

From my volume pocket watchlist, here are my 10 favorite stocks:

(Ticker, watch price)

These are all daily charts, aside from the volume pocket and watch price, they remain unmarked for your own visual/technical interpretation.

10. MDP, 38.10

9. GDOT, 14.80

8. DEPO, 7.00

7. MBFI, 23.40

6. MGA, 54.20

5. GTN, 4.10

4. CVD, 68.90

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

The Top 10

Please pardon my tenor last evening when I sarcastically quipped about markets advancing 5% per month as the “new normal”.

Ah yes, recall those few gloomy hours on Monday afternoon.  You remember, that time when people were losing money on the stock exchange?  Men dressed in burlap and blue blazers were seen “talking hurriedly with crackers falling out of their mouths” (I can’t speak to that).

Then Benjamin Bernanke eased back in his study with a “Catch a Fire” sized spliff and was rumoured (sic) to have mentioned something about “bitches” and “getting (them) real good” (I can’t speak to that either).

Anyway, the ‘fun wagon’ left the station bright and early today and brought easy money to anyone with a brain, pulse and brokerage account (no offense to the shorts out there…but come on…).

There was some “moving” and “shaking” atop the leaderboard, leaving us with the following rundown:

Daily charts unless noted, links go to chartpin.

(Stock, Watch Price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GDOT, 14.80

WEEKLY

8. BG, 82.00

7. MGA, 54.20

6. CVD, 68.90

5. ALJ, 19.90

4. DEPO, 7.00

3. RWT, 19.40

2. CBI, 52.40

1. GTN, 4.10

-EM

Portfolio 02/04/13; A Word about “Watch Prices”

I would like to speak about the “watch level” prices that I highlight, previously in my watchlist updates and now in the “Top 10” posts that I have been producing in recent weeks.

When I first started on my analysis of volume pockets, one thing that really intrigued me was the ability to gauge the size of a potential move.  In an ideal world, if everything breaks as planned, then a price target can be set at the top of the volume void.  With the extremes of the volume pocket as our guide we can safely approximate the boundaries of the range in which we want to trade, thus we now have a baseline (bottom of the void) and a target (top of the void).

After years of reading, observation and experience I have come to find that the “easy money” (relative term) is made in the middle of a lengthy bull (or bear…but on a much shorter time frame) move.  In other words, your probability for winning improves dramatically when you catch the ‘meat’ of a move versus trying call a top and/or a bottom.

Once the momentum is underway, my goal is to hitch on to that train and let it take me where it wants to go, which hopefully is in the direction I am speculating.  I have my risk parameters in place, I know that the stock is already moving in the direction that I want it to move in and I have an edge based on the fact that a supply/demand imbalance exists in the form of a lack of historical volume.

Ok, so back to the idea of catching the bulk of the move and how that relates to my “watch prices”.  I am interested in catching 70% of the move through the volume pocket.  This means that I place a 15% buffer on the bottom of the volume pocket and a 15% buffer on the top of the pocket.

With the remaining 70% I set up my “watch prices”.  Ideally, I want to build a position throughout the 70%, nibbling on bits here and there, having a full boat by the time we reach the top buffer level.  I break down the 70% region into 4 equally spaced buy zones.  This is what the “watch prices” signify.  Keep in mind that this doesn’t automatically mean that I’m going to buy the stock once these prices are hit.  In theory, one could do that and it probably would work just fine, but after using this method for a bit, I feel like I can control risk better through being more subjective with where I start a position and/or add shares.

The essence of this is (in theory) to build a position throughout the void.

As for my holdings:

  • AN has come in a bit since making an all-time high Friday on the gap higher.  I’m looking for more consolidation here and will probably add shares at some point TBD.
  • CBI has the look of a stock that wants to march higher but is being held back by a sluggish general market.  With a broad market rally, I see this moving through 52.5 with ease.
  • CTB looks to be slowly rolling over.  This will likely be liquidated shortly.
  • ESV is tightening up quite nicely.  As I monitor these stocks I continue to come across stocks that have spent 1-2 days marching higher only to pull back and consolidate in a calm and orderly fashion.  From a risk/reward standpoint, I feel like this is a better time to buy.
  • MRH is another stock that continues to defy the selloff in the broad market.  24 has acted as support for 2 weeks now, I’m looking for this to break much higher.  Unfortunately (for me trying to build a position), earnings are on Thursday after the close.  Therefore similar to how I traded AN, I will be liquidating 75% of my position prior to that time.
  • Yesterday I documented my desire to add more PCL based on how The PPT has handled the stock since the rally (in this name) started in November.  I held off due to the cascading of the market into the close, but this does look like a good place to add a bit.  Since I already bought a large chunk last week, if I do go through with it, the add will be small.  Additionally, this stock typically goes ex-div the second or third week in February (and pays 0.42 quarterly), so we have that to look forward to.
  • WGO appears to have hit a snag and is being closely monitored for liquidation.  I do not at all like how it broke down yesterday.

 

-EM

Watchlist: Top 10

Here is the latest from the front with a new twist added in for your enjoyment.

Instead of being sent to the the corresponding finviz page, when you click on the ticker link you will be taken to the chartpin page for the corresponding stock.  There you will find (starting with this week, well…this post, actually) a record of each time I publish a chart corresponding to that particular ticker (in addition to any other charts of that ticker, posted by chartpin users).

In this post, I’m going to stick with the typical 9.5 year weekly charts that accompany my analysis, but I will be posting 6 month-daily charts on chartpin (with no technical indicators, only the volume pocket ‘shadow’ and horizontal line corresponding to my “watch price”).

On this blog we count down.

(ticker, watch price)

10. MBFI, 23.40

9. GE, 23.30

8. BG, 82.00

7. FSS, 8.60

6. CBI, 52.40

5. MGA, 54.20

4. RWT, 19.40

3. CVD. 68.90

2. DEPO, 7.00

1. ALJ, 19.90

-EM

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