THE FACEBOOK (Mea Culpa/A Lesson Learned)

44,524 views

It was with tremendous excitement that I greeted the Option Addict to the fold here at iBC.  He planted the seeds for my delving into volume pocket analysis and I respect his work in technical analysis and options trading tremendously.  With that in mind the stocks that he was interested in, I am usually interested in.

The Facebook caught my fancy from one of his weekly watchlist videos and I decided that this would be the trade I would “follow” him on.

You can probably figure out where this is going.

Objectively, I look at the $FB chart and I see nothing that would lead me to get long the stock, even before this most unfortunate turn of events.  This was pure gambling based on the analysis of someone other than myself.

Look, I can deal with losses on trades that I initiate, but when I ignore my own analysis and ideas and follow along with someone else, I deserve to have my face punched in.  And that is exactly what happened.

The lesson, as always: come up with your own fucking ideas.  You know when to buy and, most importantly, when to sell.  I went into this trade blinded by the outstanding performance of another trader, fueled by greed and I got served.

Lesson learned.

Now I feel better.  Thanks.

-EM

Vince Lombardi Says it Best

720 views

Now that iBC has (re)introduced 248 new bloggers, I figured it was time to crack my knuckles and start banging on these here keys again to regularly express my thoughts regarding everyone’s favourite (sic) tale of whimsy: yes, I’m talking about the stock exchange.

It’s all about the levitation at this point.  The ether is flowing and everyone is in a constant state of bliss.  Losses cannot and WILL NOT be tolerated.  Unchanged is the new DOW -300.

The best part was that time when the market plummeted over 100 points in 40 minutes on a (excuse my language) fucking rumor about teh Bernank cutting off the crack rock.

Seriously, what the hell IS going on out there?

Hell, even everyone’s favorite “hedge”, $VXX, is positively correlated with the market (ok, not really).

My portfolio stands at 52% cash.  This scenario is exactly why I have allocated 30% of my capital to a broad market ETF.  Even though I’m scared as hell to get long here, I still have a decent amount of exposure to the broad market that I’m continually making (albeit muted) new highs each and every day.

Yes, yes, it’s true, my gains pale in comparison to even the broad market (and, yes, for that I feel like a retarded monkey).  It sucks being  in a place where I’m trailing by so much, but am also extremely leery of the rug being pulled out from under us.

Aside: I feel that prospect is more real than ever before.  the AP account is hacked and Prezident O’bama is hurt, next thing you know, bids disappear from the market.  As mentioned earlier, allegedly a mere rumor of Bernanke cutting off QE caused a minor panic.  I have no confidence in this “rally”…it’s all fantasy…play money.

Thus, I have basically closed up shop in looking for multi-week/month trades like I was earlier this year.  I’m letting what remains of those positions ride for the time being and am focused on very short term extreme oversold trades.

I have developed a system, and it has been very successful so far.  @eliza_mae_ibc #knifecatcher is where you can tune in for the play-by-play.  More details to follow around here.

Until then, lever up those accounts to as great of an extent as possible and buy as much of everything as you can, you cannot and will not be allowed to lose.

-EM

 

It’s as if…

1,201 views

…nothing has changed…

My apologies for the lack of content of late…but really, what is there to comment on?  We have essentially gone nowhere since my last post almost three weeks ago.

Additionally, I have not made any (as in ZERO) adjustments to the core holdings of my portfolio, letting the ebb and flow of the market take these positions where it wants to.  (which, coincidentally, was briefly into the red for the year and is now bumping back against all-time highs).

Now that we have made the roundtrip into the depths of hell (aka a 4% SPY “correction”), I am back to provide some thoughts on where I believe this market is headed.

The money to be made on this latest surge was discovered by growing a pair and buying when things looked worst.  Just think, two weeks ago, we had a pair of retarded Chechen brothers setting off explosives in crowded streets in order to kill/maim hundreds of innocent civilians, fertilizer plants blowing up, and the aforementioned Chechen asshats on the loose and shutting down a major northeast city.

The market had all the makings of a sinister and swift more lower.

Please…don’t be naïve, this shit is never that easy.

As mentioned, we are now back to having our mugs filled with the finest ambrosia, gleefully bidding up the price of any and everything we can get our hands on.  Just wait until those stops in the high 159’s are run on $SPY, this market is going to 1700 in short order.

Do I really think that will happen?

Answer: no, I do not.

I think we are likely going to take out the all-time high on the S&P, but I have little doubt that we will run out of gas soon afterward.

Then the selling will begin.

The selling will continue for a few days, ripping to shreds anyone who was bold (read: stupid) enough to go long at the very top, thus leading to everyone getting all crazy and scared and the doomsday theorists will all crawl (back) out of the woodwork and proclaim about how THIS is the real one, the big one, and we had better make preparations for DOW 9,000.  Then things will look extremely bleak, like, if one more bad news item hits the wires, the market will be headed to a -1,000 day…oh wait, we have already covered this scenario earlier in the post.

Basically what I am getting at is this:  I believe the upward momentum in the market has reached a peak for the time being and we have entered a range-bound trade.  Right now, the upside is known…I think the downside will expand in the coming weeks.

I will continue to tread VERY lightly here with my cash levels hovering around 55%.  #Knifecatcher continues to make system based trades (currently long only WHX), but those are completely unaffected by my opinion and other useless subjective measures.

Until next time.

-EM

 

Risk: ON?

324 views

“Don’t chase risk.  Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible.  Tighten up that risk.  Get it tight, get it right.”

-Raul3

I know that is almost always the prudent course of action, but here I find myself with my lowest cash level of the year (17%).

Reason being: the stocks I’m in and continue to watch all still sport bullish ‘looks’,

Yes, I should probably be more cautious and skeptical here (at least from an emotional standpoint), but (many of) the facts seem to be telling a different story.  I had to stop myself from doubling down on CNO at the closing bell.

With all of that being said, I won’t hesitate to cast off the chaff (see: my liquidation of GE this afternoon).  I have specific milestones in mind with the stocks that I own, if they fail to live up to those expectations, bye bye.

Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment.  We shall find out in the coming days.

-EM

Portfolio 02/28/13: The End of an Era

1,210 views

I guess this is where I thank everyone at iBankCoin for the opportunity to have my work featured here on the main part of the site for 2 months.

I have to say, the experience has been most enjoyable and I am grateful for all of you out there who have taken time out of your busy days to entertain my thoughts on a daily basis.

Initially this started out as a popularity contest, one in which I felt like I was strung out and basically publicly humiliated in front of all of the readers of this site.  Some random person emerges days before the “election”, someone who had contributed a handful of posts (none of which had anything to do with the stock market, mind you) in the months leading up to the election, and all of the sudden this person vaults two ensconced members of the blogger network, thus pitting us against one another in a special “run-off” election.

As you probably know, I lost.

To suggest that I was EXTREMELY bitter would be one of the great understatements of our time, but I kept my trap shut and accepted my fate as nothing more than a pawn in this game.  Thus, yes, I had reservations when Jeremy asked if I would like to contribute, but decided that I would give it a shot anyway.  I sucked it up and buried any hard feelings that I had and was determined to give it my best shot.

Rhino, Raul and I were provided a traffic monitoring site to determine if we were meeting the 3% threshold.  Throughout the month of January, I was hitting refresh repeatedly on that screen, banging out a total of 100 posts in the month.  Those stats suggested that I was well above the 3% threshold.

Then on January 31, we received an email from Jeremy suggesting that, according to some new stats, in fact, we were well below the required 3% threshold.  Very discouraging news to say the least.

It was at that point that I came to the conclusion that there was just not enough time in my day for me to do the necessary work required to attain (let alone maintain) 3% of the readership.  The writing was on the wall, I knew that this day would come eventually…so I have braced for this moment for a while and have come to peace with it.

I am grateful that “The Fly” decided to make it a swift execution and not drag this out through more elections or other suchness.  I appreciate that.

So the question of where do I go from here is up in the air.  A return to the blogger network is in the cards, but I also ask myself: “what purpose will that serve?”  Yes, I have built a small, but (seemingly) loyal audience here.  I have had my chance in the “big leagues” and I was not able to meet the required numbers, so it’s not like I will be able to perform at a substantially higher level in the future with my life in this current configuration.

I enjoy writing more than anything, and I feel like this experience, whether or not it has reflected in my P/L thusfar, has been hugely beneficial to my trading.  Thus I do not want to lose the momentum I have built over these last two months.  I guess all I can say is: stay tuned.

Thanks again to the crew here for the opportunity, I really appreciate it.

Here is how my portfolio looks at the end of February:

2013-02-28perf

2013-02-28

-EM

Checking in From the Void

636 views

I must apologize for the reduced content over the past week and a half.

The SS ElizaMae had been running on “full steam” since early October, and last week, it finally caught up with ‘her’.

The hierarchy of needs (yes Maslow) was as follows: Family, Job, “ElizaMae”, rest in that order.  Now (unfortunately) “rest” is in the hole with “ElizaMae” batting cleanup.

Notice “exercise” is nowhere to be found on that list.

I used to swim in high school…I was pretty good, our team was GREAT.  Good enough to get scholarship offers from Div II schools or I could walk-on at D-I.  I (moronically, as it would turn out) chose the latter.  The stark change in character from my high school team to my college team was remarkable.  I was a lowly peon on that team, but I went crazy after we were destroyed by North Carolina (a much better team, mind you).  No one cared that we lost.  I just couldn’t figure that mindset out.  We lost 2 dual meets in 4 years of high school and my college career starts 0-2….AND NO ONE CARES??  It was all downhill for me from there as I had “resigned” my status as a student at that university after a grand total of three semesters.

Luckily by that time I had met a girl and started to get things put back together.  Now that I think about it, this also coincides with when I became interested in “trading the market”…January 1998…first it was commodity futures…lol.

I sucked.  I didn’t know what the hell I was doing.

I do recall having “Beautiful Mind” style wire-bound notebooks filled with O/H/L/C data for a bunch of different commodities.  This was before someone like me could get charts on the internet…so I would record this information and try to find patterns.  I was never profitable, but I certainly got the itch.

I knew that I liked the idea of how the fluctuation in price of “X” was a representation of human behavior (specifically related to how that translates to a visual form, i.e., a chart).

There are an infinite number of ways to visually analyze the behavior of a stock, that’s why I present my charts as unadorned as possible.  Moving averages, oscillators, bands, etc are all reflections of either price or volume…so that is what you get from my charts (ok, to be fair I do include the void boundaries and my “watch price”…).

I guess that was a roundabout way of saying: “here is a new Top 10 list”

10. CNO, 11.10

CNO

9. EWBC, 25.10

09-EWBC

8. GE, 23.60

08-GE

7. TPX, 41.40

07-TPX

6. ACAS, 13.90

06-ACAS

5. MBFI, 23.40

05-MBFI

4. CLMT, 37.00

04-CLMT

3. CBI, 52.40

03-CBI

2. RWT, 19.40

02-RWT

1. MDP, 38.10

01-MDP

-EM

Portfolio 02/20/13: EMASCULATED

990 views

So much for keeping a relatively large cash position.

So much for choosing a nice mixture of high, mid and low beta stocks.

So much for dutifully taking profits on positions that are up as a form of protection.

So much for checking major finance websites upon buying shares to make sure that I’m not holding a large position into earnings.

It is all folly.

I gave back MORE THAN HALF of my YTD gains in a session that was fitting for the general atmosphere surrounding my life yesterday.  Sure, things could be much much worse.  However, I have spent so much time crafting this portfolio with such a conservative bent, that I thought I could sidestep such egregious losses in a single day.

Walking up the stairs for almost two months, slowly moving ahead to +2.5%, and more than half of that is gone in a day?  It certainly makes one question what all of this is for.

We all think that we can “beat” the market…dreams of making “Maybach money”, buying 1.725 million dollar 2 bedroom, 2 bath condos, but then we realize that this is all one big (I’m really really tempted to start using some fouled language here…) joke and we are the punchline.  Nevertheless, I shall carry on in my most masochistic manner, cutting losses, trying to eke out miniscule gains and using this “dip” as a buying opportunity

Obviously one day of heinous losses will not deter me and this blog will carry on…mostly as a forum for your entertainment, because it certainly is not for the benefit of my financial well being.

I see no reason to try and rationalize with my positions after yesterday.  I have my stops in place and I shall adhere to them should they be reached.

BEHOLD THE FOLLY:

Note, I sold a bunch of ESV at 63.15 near the close yesterday in preparation for the earnings release prior to today’s open.  Let me translate what this means for you: they will crush it and the stock will rip.

-EM

BRAVO Good Sirs of iBankCoin

418 views

I have been amazed by the recent writings of my fellow bloggers here at iBC.  Starting with “The Fly” telling the internets to “shut it’s big, fat, stupid face” through his posts today…he has been unstoppable.

Raul3 comes up with this and this?

Rhino gets published on Marketwatch and represents iBC like the top hatted gentleman he is.  Bravo good sir.

It’s just all kind of surreal sometimes when I think about what a significant part of my life this blog has become.  I spend my days thinking about content, wanting to get it written down, but my opportunities are limited.  Whatever “free” time I have, I spend on here, banging away on a keyboard.

My most creative and thoughtful work comes in the morning with my “Portfolio” updates.  I will pull up a MS Word document of a work report and start typing away in the middle of a paragraph.  Basically I look at a chart, and jot down some stream-of-consciousness observations.  I have found that by going through and actively forcing myself to make an observation (any observation whatsoever) each day really provides me with a much greater sense of understanding and confidence in my positions.

If you enjoy my writing, please share those posts, as I said, I feel like my best and most insightful material comes through there.

Rhino is moving to South Africa to hunt humans, I believe Raul3 was rumoured to be pondering a move to the UP and cornering the Cool Ranch taco market.  As for “ElizaMae”, maybe I’ll go “back to the Earth” and buy a stable or two and take up free-range horse farming …who knows?

-EM

So You Think You’re Tough?

353 views

Just when you thought you were a badass, someone had to go and burst your bubble by videotaping this:

Curious Observation Regarding Stock Exchange (Perma) Bears

744 views

As I scroll through my Twitter feed, I have to chuckle at some of the people that I follow.

Often I wonder why I use my precious time and (not so precious) bandwidth to entertain the thoughts of these individuals.  The most probable answer to this question is that I must enjoy the thought processes of those who are of a somewhat limited and “peculiar” mental capacity.  What other excuse could there be for these people who CONTINUALLY post absolutely ridiculous “ideas” each and every day about how the stock exchange is (hopefully) going to trade lower?

Look, I have been there, firmly strapped inside the FAZmobile, laced with sticks of dynamite, motoring toward my rendezvous with the SRScopter whereby I will fly it directly into the sun.  All of this in the face of an imminent market meltup…searching for any ridiculous clue about how the market is “overbought” or putting a lot of stock into interesting “bearish divergences” on “key indicators” while watching my positions being ground into dust and used to fertilize a field of cabbage.

Are these the types of people who are so adamant about rebuffing popular opinion that they will continue to make (seemingly) insane comments and (even more insane) money management decisions?

The market is clearly going up (well, not today…but it is clearly in an “uptrend”).  It will continue to go up until it doesn’t.  I know that sounds ridiculously simplified, but there are precious few (if ANY) significant market declines that have materialized over the course of a few days.

I get that there are a few really smart people who short stocks…they are typically professionals with VERY deep pockets and can wait out their well reasoned theses to work.  These are not the people I’m talking about.

-EM

THE FACEBOOK (Mea Culpa/A Lesson Learned)

44,524 views

It was with tremendous excitement that I greeted the Option Addict to the fold here at iBC.  He planted the seeds for my delving into volume pocket analysis and I respect his work in technical analysis and options trading tremendously.  With that in mind the stocks that he was interested in, I am usually interested in.

The Facebook caught my fancy from one of his weekly watchlist videos and I decided that this would be the trade I would “follow” him on.

You can probably figure out where this is going.

Objectively, I look at the $FB chart and I see nothing that would lead me to get long the stock, even before this most unfortunate turn of events.  This was pure gambling based on the analysis of someone other than myself.

Look, I can deal with losses on trades that I initiate, but when I ignore my own analysis and ideas and follow along with someone else, I deserve to have my face punched in.  And that is exactly what happened.

The lesson, as always: come up with your own fucking ideas.  You know when to buy and, most importantly, when to sell.  I went into this trade blinded by the outstanding performance of another trader, fueled by greed and I got served.

Lesson learned.

Now I feel better.  Thanks.

-EM

Vince Lombardi Says it Best

720 views

Now that iBC has (re)introduced 248 new bloggers, I figured it was time to crack my knuckles and start banging on these here keys again to regularly express my thoughts regarding everyone’s favourite (sic) tale of whimsy: yes, I’m talking about the stock exchange.

It’s all about the levitation at this point.  The ether is flowing and everyone is in a constant state of bliss.  Losses cannot and WILL NOT be tolerated.  Unchanged is the new DOW -300.

The best part was that time when the market plummeted over 100 points in 40 minutes on a (excuse my language) fucking rumor about teh Bernank cutting off the crack rock.

Seriously, what the hell IS going on out there?

Hell, even everyone’s favorite “hedge”, $VXX, is positively correlated with the market (ok, not really).

My portfolio stands at 52% cash.  This scenario is exactly why I have allocated 30% of my capital to a broad market ETF.  Even though I’m scared as hell to get long here, I still have a decent amount of exposure to the broad market that I’m continually making (albeit muted) new highs each and every day.

Yes, yes, it’s true, my gains pale in comparison to even the broad market (and, yes, for that I feel like a retarded monkey).  It sucks being  in a place where I’m trailing by so much, but am also extremely leery of the rug being pulled out from under us.

Aside: I feel that prospect is more real than ever before.  the AP account is hacked and Prezident O’bama is hurt, next thing you know, bids disappear from the market.  As mentioned earlier, allegedly a mere rumor of Bernanke cutting off QE caused a minor panic.  I have no confidence in this “rally”…it’s all fantasy…play money.

Thus, I have basically closed up shop in looking for multi-week/month trades like I was earlier this year.  I’m letting what remains of those positions ride for the time being and am focused on very short term extreme oversold trades.

I have developed a system, and it has been very successful so far.  @eliza_mae_ibc #knifecatcher is where you can tune in for the play-by-play.  More details to follow around here.

Until then, lever up those accounts to as great of an extent as possible and buy as much of everything as you can, you cannot and will not be allowed to lose.

-EM

 

It’s as if…

1,201 views

…nothing has changed…

My apologies for the lack of content of late…but really, what is there to comment on?  We have essentially gone nowhere since my last post almost three weeks ago.

Additionally, I have not made any (as in ZERO) adjustments to the core holdings of my portfolio, letting the ebb and flow of the market take these positions where it wants to.  (which, coincidentally, was briefly into the red for the year and is now bumping back against all-time highs).

Now that we have made the roundtrip into the depths of hell (aka a 4% SPY “correction”), I am back to provide some thoughts on where I believe this market is headed.

The money to be made on this latest surge was discovered by growing a pair and buying when things looked worst.  Just think, two weeks ago, we had a pair of retarded Chechen brothers setting off explosives in crowded streets in order to kill/maim hundreds of innocent civilians, fertilizer plants blowing up, and the aforementioned Chechen asshats on the loose and shutting down a major northeast city.

The market had all the makings of a sinister and swift more lower.

Please…don’t be naïve, this shit is never that easy.

As mentioned, we are now back to having our mugs filled with the finest ambrosia, gleefully bidding up the price of any and everything we can get our hands on.  Just wait until those stops in the high 159’s are run on $SPY, this market is going to 1700 in short order.

Do I really think that will happen?

Answer: no, I do not.

I think we are likely going to take out the all-time high on the S&P, but I have little doubt that we will run out of gas soon afterward.

Then the selling will begin.

The selling will continue for a few days, ripping to shreds anyone who was bold (read: stupid) enough to go long at the very top, thus leading to everyone getting all crazy and scared and the doomsday theorists will all crawl (back) out of the woodwork and proclaim about how THIS is the real one, the big one, and we had better make preparations for DOW 9,000.  Then things will look extremely bleak, like, if one more bad news item hits the wires, the market will be headed to a -1,000 day…oh wait, we have already covered this scenario earlier in the post.

Basically what I am getting at is this:  I believe the upward momentum in the market has reached a peak for the time being and we have entered a range-bound trade.  Right now, the upside is known…I think the downside will expand in the coming weeks.

I will continue to tread VERY lightly here with my cash levels hovering around 55%.  #Knifecatcher continues to make system based trades (currently long only WHX), but those are completely unaffected by my opinion and other useless subjective measures.

Until next time.

-EM

 

Risk: ON?

324 views

“Don’t chase risk.  Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible.  Tighten up that risk.  Get it tight, get it right.”

-Raul3

I know that is almost always the prudent course of action, but here I find myself with my lowest cash level of the year (17%).

Reason being: the stocks I’m in and continue to watch all still sport bullish ‘looks’,

Yes, I should probably be more cautious and skeptical here (at least from an emotional standpoint), but (many of) the facts seem to be telling a different story.  I had to stop myself from doubling down on CNO at the closing bell.

With all of that being said, I won’t hesitate to cast off the chaff (see: my liquidation of GE this afternoon).  I have specific milestones in mind with the stocks that I own, if they fail to live up to those expectations, bye bye.

Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment.  We shall find out in the coming days.

-EM

Portfolio 02/28/13: The End of an Era

1,210 views

I guess this is where I thank everyone at iBankCoin for the opportunity to have my work featured here on the main part of the site for 2 months.

I have to say, the experience has been most enjoyable and I am grateful for all of you out there who have taken time out of your busy days to entertain my thoughts on a daily basis.

Initially this started out as a popularity contest, one in which I felt like I was strung out and basically publicly humiliated in front of all of the readers of this site.  Some random person emerges days before the “election”, someone who had contributed a handful of posts (none of which had anything to do with the stock market, mind you) in the months leading up to the election, and all of the sudden this person vaults two ensconced members of the blogger network, thus pitting us against one another in a special “run-off” election.

As you probably know, I lost.

To suggest that I was EXTREMELY bitter would be one of the great understatements of our time, but I kept my trap shut and accepted my fate as nothing more than a pawn in this game.  Thus, yes, I had reservations when Jeremy asked if I would like to contribute, but decided that I would give it a shot anyway.  I sucked it up and buried any hard feelings that I had and was determined to give it my best shot.

Rhino, Raul and I were provided a traffic monitoring site to determine if we were meeting the 3% threshold.  Throughout the month of January, I was hitting refresh repeatedly on that screen, banging out a total of 100 posts in the month.  Those stats suggested that I was well above the 3% threshold.

Then on January 31, we received an email from Jeremy suggesting that, according to some new stats, in fact, we were well below the required 3% threshold.  Very discouraging news to say the least.

It was at that point that I came to the conclusion that there was just not enough time in my day for me to do the necessary work required to attain (let alone maintain) 3% of the readership.  The writing was on the wall, I knew that this day would come eventually…so I have braced for this moment for a while and have come to peace with it.

I am grateful that “The Fly” decided to make it a swift execution and not drag this out through more elections or other suchness.  I appreciate that.

So the question of where do I go from here is up in the air.  A return to the blogger network is in the cards, but I also ask myself: “what purpose will that serve?”  Yes, I have built a small, but (seemingly) loyal audience here.  I have had my chance in the “big leagues” and I was not able to meet the required numbers, so it’s not like I will be able to perform at a substantially higher level in the future with my life in this current configuration.

I enjoy writing more than anything, and I feel like this experience, whether or not it has reflected in my P/L thusfar, has been hugely beneficial to my trading.  Thus I do not want to lose the momentum I have built over these last two months.  I guess all I can say is: stay tuned.

Thanks again to the crew here for the opportunity, I really appreciate it.

Here is how my portfolio looks at the end of February:

2013-02-28perf

2013-02-28

-EM

Checking in From the Void

636 views

I must apologize for the reduced content over the past week and a half.

The SS ElizaMae had been running on “full steam” since early October, and last week, it finally caught up with ‘her’.

The hierarchy of needs (yes Maslow) was as follows: Family, Job, “ElizaMae”, rest in that order.  Now (unfortunately) “rest” is in the hole with “ElizaMae” batting cleanup.

Notice “exercise” is nowhere to be found on that list.

I used to swim in high school…I was pretty good, our team was GREAT.  Good enough to get scholarship offers from Div II schools or I could walk-on at D-I.  I (moronically, as it would turn out) chose the latter.  The stark change in character from my high school team to my college team was remarkable.  I was a lowly peon on that team, but I went crazy after we were destroyed by North Carolina (a much better team, mind you).  No one cared that we lost.  I just couldn’t figure that mindset out.  We lost 2 dual meets in 4 years of high school and my college career starts 0-2….AND NO ONE CARES??  It was all downhill for me from there as I had “resigned” my status as a student at that university after a grand total of three semesters.

Luckily by that time I had met a girl and started to get things put back together.  Now that I think about it, this also coincides with when I became interested in “trading the market”…January 1998…first it was commodity futures…lol.

I sucked.  I didn’t know what the hell I was doing.

I do recall having “Beautiful Mind” style wire-bound notebooks filled with O/H/L/C data for a bunch of different commodities.  This was before someone like me could get charts on the internet…so I would record this information and try to find patterns.  I was never profitable, but I certainly got the itch.

I knew that I liked the idea of how the fluctuation in price of “X” was a representation of human behavior (specifically related to how that translates to a visual form, i.e., a chart).

There are an infinite number of ways to visually analyze the behavior of a stock, that’s why I present my charts as unadorned as possible.  Moving averages, oscillators, bands, etc are all reflections of either price or volume…so that is what you get from my charts (ok, to be fair I do include the void boundaries and my “watch price”…).

I guess that was a roundabout way of saying: “here is a new Top 10 list”

10. CNO, 11.10

CNO

9. EWBC, 25.10

09-EWBC

8. GE, 23.60

08-GE

7. TPX, 41.40

07-TPX

6. ACAS, 13.90

06-ACAS

5. MBFI, 23.40

05-MBFI

4. CLMT, 37.00

04-CLMT

3. CBI, 52.40

03-CBI

2. RWT, 19.40

02-RWT

1. MDP, 38.10

01-MDP

-EM

Portfolio 02/20/13: EMASCULATED

990 views

So much for keeping a relatively large cash position.

So much for choosing a nice mixture of high, mid and low beta stocks.

So much for dutifully taking profits on positions that are up as a form of protection.

So much for checking major finance websites upon buying shares to make sure that I’m not holding a large position into earnings.

It is all folly.

I gave back MORE THAN HALF of my YTD gains in a session that was fitting for the general atmosphere surrounding my life yesterday.  Sure, things could be much much worse.  However, I have spent so much time crafting this portfolio with such a conservative bent, that I thought I could sidestep such egregious losses in a single day.

Walking up the stairs for almost two months, slowly moving ahead to +2.5%, and more than half of that is gone in a day?  It certainly makes one question what all of this is for.

We all think that we can “beat” the market…dreams of making “Maybach money”, buying 1.725 million dollar 2 bedroom, 2 bath condos, but then we realize that this is all one big (I’m really really tempted to start using some fouled language here…) joke and we are the punchline.  Nevertheless, I shall carry on in my most masochistic manner, cutting losses, trying to eke out miniscule gains and using this “dip” as a buying opportunity

Obviously one day of heinous losses will not deter me and this blog will carry on…mostly as a forum for your entertainment, because it certainly is not for the benefit of my financial well being.

I see no reason to try and rationalize with my positions after yesterday.  I have my stops in place and I shall adhere to them should they be reached.

BEHOLD THE FOLLY:

Note, I sold a bunch of ESV at 63.15 near the close yesterday in preparation for the earnings release prior to today’s open.  Let me translate what this means for you: they will crush it and the stock will rip.

-EM

BRAVO Good Sirs of iBankCoin

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I have been amazed by the recent writings of my fellow bloggers here at iBC.  Starting with “The Fly” telling the internets to “shut it’s big, fat, stupid face” through his posts today…he has been unstoppable.

Raul3 comes up with this and this?

Rhino gets published on Marketwatch and represents iBC like the top hatted gentleman he is.  Bravo good sir.

It’s just all kind of surreal sometimes when I think about what a significant part of my life this blog has become.  I spend my days thinking about content, wanting to get it written down, but my opportunities are limited.  Whatever “free” time I have, I spend on here, banging away on a keyboard.

My most creative and thoughtful work comes in the morning with my “Portfolio” updates.  I will pull up a MS Word document of a work report and start typing away in the middle of a paragraph.  Basically I look at a chart, and jot down some stream-of-consciousness observations.  I have found that by going through and actively forcing myself to make an observation (any observation whatsoever) each day really provides me with a much greater sense of understanding and confidence in my positions.

If you enjoy my writing, please share those posts, as I said, I feel like my best and most insightful material comes through there.

Rhino is moving to South Africa to hunt humans, I believe Raul3 was rumoured to be pondering a move to the UP and cornering the Cool Ranch taco market.  As for “ElizaMae”, maybe I’ll go “back to the Earth” and buy a stable or two and take up free-range horse farming …who knows?

-EM

Curious Observation Regarding Stock Exchange (Perma) Bears

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As I scroll through my Twitter feed, I have to chuckle at some of the people that I follow.

Often I wonder why I use my precious time and (not so precious) bandwidth to entertain the thoughts of these individuals.  The most probable answer to this question is that I must enjoy the thought processes of those who are of a somewhat limited and “peculiar” mental capacity.  What other excuse could there be for these people who CONTINUALLY post absolutely ridiculous “ideas” each and every day about how the stock exchange is (hopefully) going to trade lower?

Look, I have been there, firmly strapped inside the FAZmobile, laced with sticks of dynamite, motoring toward my rendezvous with the SRScopter whereby I will fly it directly into the sun.  All of this in the face of an imminent market meltup…searching for any ridiculous clue about how the market is “overbought” or putting a lot of stock into interesting “bearish divergences” on “key indicators” while watching my positions being ground into dust and used to fertilize a field of cabbage.

Are these the types of people who are so adamant about rebuffing popular opinion that they will continue to make (seemingly) insane comments and (even more insane) money management decisions?

The market is clearly going up (well, not today…but it is clearly in an “uptrend”).  It will continue to go up until it doesn’t.  I know that sounds ridiculously simplified, but there are precious few (if ANY) significant market declines that have materialized over the course of a few days.

I get that there are a few really smart people who short stocks…they are typically professionals with VERY deep pockets and can wait out their well reasoned theses to work.  These are not the people I’m talking about.

-EM

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