Dude, Did You $TIVO That?

640 views

I remember when my wife and I first upgraded to DVR, I would ask if we “remembered to TIVO (fill in show here)”, ignorantly using a specific product for the act of digitally recording television programs.  It’s the western PA in me…we tend to be less smart in certain matters dealing with proper grammar and diction.

Late last evening, reader and young chap @CharlieThomps0n posed the following question:

Lets take a look at the weekly:

Well, have a look at that.

I see that TIVO is pulling back this morning, likely frustrating anyone who got long on the break yesterday.  Hang in there.

I think if it can consolidate in a mellow manner here (in keeping with the theme set forth by Rhino’s post last night) I think this is a strong candidate to catapult higher into the void in the coming weeks.  If you are patient and willing to let this play out, I think that you can reasonably set your sights on the highs from 2010.  To the downside, let your own risk management be your guide, but to these eyes, 12 looks like a good line in the sand.

-EM

A Query by Hearth’s Edge

344 views

As the chilly winds of January have swept through my fair city (on the heels of a 70 degree day yesterday), I sit slowly puffing on my pipe whilst the fire crackles nearby.  My thoughts wandered to a comment that I received earlier on my blog:

Excellent question…if it were December.

The second chart:

was from the time when I went long the stock in the last week of December.

My thought was: “if this stock can gain momentum, there is virtually no historical record of people buying or selling shares in this region.  Therefore, what incentive is there for people to sell?  Almost everyone owns the stock at lower prices, so there is going to be a basic supply and demand problem, no?  If the vast majority of current shareholders are sitting on a profit, there won’t be  an incentive to sell.  Now, of course everyone has their price, but one could assume that it would be much easier to bid up the price of a stock in a region where there is a limited supply and a surplus of demand.”

Comments/thoughts are encouraged.

-EM

 

$AN: A Story About a Void

374 views

A while back, I mentioned that my expectations for Auto Nation (AN) were for the stock to eventually revisit the highs made in late October in the mid 48’s.  Well, due in part to the favorable reaction by the market to earnings here is what we have today:

Here is the volume profile for this stock when I started my position in late December (at 39.04):

The moral of this story: even (hell, especially) when the price action of a stock seems to makes little sense, don’t forget to check in with the historical volume profile…it has a story to tell.

-EM

 

New Watchlist Addition: $MDP

383 views

Running through my two (2) screens this morning, I happened upon a very interesting looking volume void prospect: Meredith Corporation (MDP).

After all, everyone knows, nothing says growth and momentum like periodical publishers!  Nevertheless, this stock has nice fundamentals (via The PPT)  a beeeeutiful looking low volume region directly ahead:

I am currently monitoring the stock for a break of 38.10.  This price also coincides with the previous attempts to enter the void since 2010, as identified by the orange arrows.

-EM

 

Belated: Portfolio 01/28/13; A Tad More About $SODA

625 views

Disclaimer: my apologies for the delay on this post.  I had penned what may have been the greatest blog post in the history of man when many of the words were suddenly swallowed by a vat of olive oil (extra virgin, of course) when I pushed the “save post” button last evening (unfortunately the less interesting parts were saved).  Yes, I realize that this information is dated, but wanted to get it out there anyway.

Earlier this evening a Twitter follower named “Southpaw” (I knew I had to be friends with an avatar like that) posed the following question:

As an aside, if you read this blog with any sort of frequency, you recognize how much I enjoy doing reader requests.  If you have a stock you want me to take a look at, feel free to let me know because as far as I’m concerned, we’re all trying to learn here anyway.

Back to the topic at hand: SODA.  In my weekend “Top 10” post, I had SODA as my number one (1) choice.  My top secret scoring system uses an extremely complicated algorithm which should be of no concern to you at this juncture.  With that, let’s take a look at the weekly.

When using PbV to analyze a stock, we need to take into account how much data we have available.  With a stock like SODA that has been public for a little over two years, the volume profile will be characterized and affected by the range of prices.  SODA just happens to have a very large distribution of prices from the low 20’s to almost 80.  With only two years of data and such a large distribution, there are likely to be “voids” somewhere in there.

Clearly buyers and sellers have determined that fair “value” for this stock is somewhere between 32 and 40.

Taking a look at where we are now, SODA does have very little historical volume above 50 (with the exception of around 57 which happens to be the last point of resistance, as signified with the blue arrow).   If price is able to get through this point, it could really run.

To the downside, I would say that 48 is the first (and final, for our purposes, yellow arrow above) point of support.  If price cannot sustain this level, I would go and look for better opportunities.

As for the daily:

We have seen this stock violently pull back, meander sideways for a couple of weeks then go higher once this year already.  I think that if it is indeed forming another base here and breaks free, then the next stop is 57.

As of now, I am going to be very patient with this and let the dust settle.  I have a price in mind where I would like to start a position.  All I have to do is wait in the tall grass for it to come to me.

Bottom line: I’m feeling quite bullish on this stock as long as it can remain above 48.

For the sake of completeness, here an abbreviated portfolio update:

-EM

A Different (but Similar) Take on $WNC

440 views

Recently there has been a lot of chatter and interest in Wabash National (aka WNC) around the nations of iBankCoin.  I recall trading this stock back in 2009 to the tune of a +180% gain and was intrigued by the idea of this coming back around for another opportunity.

With the excessive bullishness coming from people who are much smarter than I in these matters, it only made sense to take to my favorite analysis tool (Price by Volume) and see what would come of it.

Here is the weekly:

From my measurements, there is clearly a dearth of volume in the region from 12.25 all the way to 24.

However, before we get there, lets take a look at this from a price-resistance standpoint.  There could potentially be a couple of bumps in the road before we enter the void.  The first comes in the region between 10.8 and 11.7, which triggered reversals in 2008, 2010 (in the weeks after the flash crash) and also in 2012 (Green Arrows).  All three of those took place after steep run-ups (similar to what we are seeing now).

If price can constructively clear this region, all that stands between this stock and the “ether” is the reversal that took place in late 2010/early 2011 around 12.5 (Red arrow).

Past that…there is nothing other than a bump at 17 and some chop around 20 (pink arrows).

My friends, the call is this: through 12.5 and we best prepare our space helmets.

-EM

Go Long $TPX and Get a Better Nights Rest

466 views

Colleague Raul3 aka @TwoSmuth alerted me this morning that TPX has entered “the void” (why this was not on my watchlist is beyond me, but the glaring omission has been rectified).

A few weeks ago I did some analysis on the stock and noted that the low volume area measured to about a $15/share.  With a buffer in place to try and avoid getting chopped up on the periphery of the LVN, we are very close to where I would consider starting a position in this stock.

I know that I’m none to enthused about buying at the high end of a +9% day, so I’m going to sit by and wait to see if this one takes a breather before moving higher.  Granted, I may miss some of this initial move; however my “buy point” is at 38.8, so there is still some room to maneuver, and a consolidation here would provide an ideal opportunity for me to start a position.

UPDATE: Raul3 has notified me in the comments that TPX reports after the close today (1/24), so I definitely will be waiting until that smoke clears before making any decisions.

I’ll post the chart from my initial analysis and then a current version:

 

-EM

Revisiting $AAPL and “the Void”

553 views

Remember this post from a mere 10 days ago?

I’m sure many of you Apple fanboys out there were thinking: “LOL!!  OMG!? WTF!!1! This assclown is using historical volume analysis to warn me that the greatest stock ever known to man could plummet almost 80 points in short time??  LOLZ!?!! #TEAMAAPLFTW”

Full disclosure: I have an iPhone, iPod and iPad mini.

Let’s take a look at that same chart of AAPL updated through the $50 BILLION massacre that is taking place this morning.

The well publicized drubbing that HLF received following Bill Ackman’s attempted sadistic advances bounced right where the stock went from a low volume node to a high volume node.  Based on my prior analysis of AAPL and, if I were short, I would look to cover around 430.  There is ample support in that region in the form of the historical volume profile and prior resistance from late 2011.

If you are long and/or planning on adding/starting a position, I (obviously) would make plans to see the stock retreat to this general area, and begin formulating a plan in the event price does get to this point.  It could present a decent buying opportunity.

-EM

Dude, Did You $TIVO That?

640 views

I remember when my wife and I first upgraded to DVR, I would ask if we “remembered to TIVO (fill in show here)”, ignorantly using a specific product for the act of digitally recording television programs.  It’s the western PA in me…we tend to be less smart in certain matters dealing with proper grammar and diction.

Late last evening, reader and young chap @CharlieThomps0n posed the following question:

Lets take a look at the weekly:

Well, have a look at that.

I see that TIVO is pulling back this morning, likely frustrating anyone who got long on the break yesterday.  Hang in there.

I think if it can consolidate in a mellow manner here (in keeping with the theme set forth by Rhino’s post last night) I think this is a strong candidate to catapult higher into the void in the coming weeks.  If you are patient and willing to let this play out, I think that you can reasonably set your sights on the highs from 2010.  To the downside, let your own risk management be your guide, but to these eyes, 12 looks like a good line in the sand.

-EM

A Query by Hearth’s Edge

344 views

As the chilly winds of January have swept through my fair city (on the heels of a 70 degree day yesterday), I sit slowly puffing on my pipe whilst the fire crackles nearby.  My thoughts wandered to a comment that I received earlier on my blog:

Excellent question…if it were December.

The second chart:

was from the time when I went long the stock in the last week of December.

My thought was: “if this stock can gain momentum, there is virtually no historical record of people buying or selling shares in this region.  Therefore, what incentive is there for people to sell?  Almost everyone owns the stock at lower prices, so there is going to be a basic supply and demand problem, no?  If the vast majority of current shareholders are sitting on a profit, there won’t be  an incentive to sell.  Now, of course everyone has their price, but one could assume that it would be much easier to bid up the price of a stock in a region where there is a limited supply and a surplus of demand.”

Comments/thoughts are encouraged.

-EM

 

$AN: A Story About a Void

374 views

A while back, I mentioned that my expectations for Auto Nation (AN) were for the stock to eventually revisit the highs made in late October in the mid 48’s.  Well, due in part to the favorable reaction by the market to earnings here is what we have today:

Here is the volume profile for this stock when I started my position in late December (at 39.04):

The moral of this story: even (hell, especially) when the price action of a stock seems to makes little sense, don’t forget to check in with the historical volume profile…it has a story to tell.

-EM

 

Watchlist: Top 10

1,039 views

Less words, MOAR pictures:

(Ticker, watch price)

10. BG, 82.00

9. ALJ, 19.90

8. PHM, 21.90

7. SODA, 53.60

6. CVD, 68.90

5. MGA, 54.20

4. RWT, 19.40

3. CBI, 52.40

2. TPX, 41.40

1. VMC, 58.10

-EM

New Watchlist Addition: $MDP

383 views

Running through my two (2) screens this morning, I happened upon a very interesting looking volume void prospect: Meredith Corporation (MDP).

After all, everyone knows, nothing says growth and momentum like periodical publishers!  Nevertheless, this stock has nice fundamentals (via The PPT)  a beeeeutiful looking low volume region directly ahead:

I am currently monitoring the stock for a break of 38.10.  This price also coincides with the previous attempts to enter the void since 2010, as identified by the orange arrows.

-EM

 

Belated: Portfolio 01/28/13; A Tad More About $SODA

625 views

Disclaimer: my apologies for the delay on this post.  I had penned what may have been the greatest blog post in the history of man when many of the words were suddenly swallowed by a vat of olive oil (extra virgin, of course) when I pushed the “save post” button last evening (unfortunately the less interesting parts were saved).  Yes, I realize that this information is dated, but wanted to get it out there anyway.

Earlier this evening a Twitter follower named “Southpaw” (I knew I had to be friends with an avatar like that) posed the following question:

As an aside, if you read this blog with any sort of frequency, you recognize how much I enjoy doing reader requests.  If you have a stock you want me to take a look at, feel free to let me know because as far as I’m concerned, we’re all trying to learn here anyway.

Back to the topic at hand: SODA.  In my weekend “Top 10” post, I had SODA as my number one (1) choice.  My top secret scoring system uses an extremely complicated algorithm which should be of no concern to you at this juncture.  With that, let’s take a look at the weekly.

When using PbV to analyze a stock, we need to take into account how much data we have available.  With a stock like SODA that has been public for a little over two years, the volume profile will be characterized and affected by the range of prices.  SODA just happens to have a very large distribution of prices from the low 20’s to almost 80.  With only two years of data and such a large distribution, there are likely to be “voids” somewhere in there.

Clearly buyers and sellers have determined that fair “value” for this stock is somewhere between 32 and 40.

Taking a look at where we are now, SODA does have very little historical volume above 50 (with the exception of around 57 which happens to be the last point of resistance, as signified with the blue arrow).   If price is able to get through this point, it could really run.

To the downside, I would say that 48 is the first (and final, for our purposes, yellow arrow above) point of support.  If price cannot sustain this level, I would go and look for better opportunities.

As for the daily:

We have seen this stock violently pull back, meander sideways for a couple of weeks then go higher once this year already.  I think that if it is indeed forming another base here and breaks free, then the next stop is 57.

As of now, I am going to be very patient with this and let the dust settle.  I have a price in mind where I would like to start a position.  All I have to do is wait in the tall grass for it to come to me.

Bottom line: I’m feeling quite bullish on this stock as long as it can remain above 48.

For the sake of completeness, here an abbreviated portfolio update:

-EM

A Different (but Similar) Take on $WNC

440 views

Recently there has been a lot of chatter and interest in Wabash National (aka WNC) around the nations of iBankCoin.  I recall trading this stock back in 2009 to the tune of a +180% gain and was intrigued by the idea of this coming back around for another opportunity.

With the excessive bullishness coming from people who are much smarter than I in these matters, it only made sense to take to my favorite analysis tool (Price by Volume) and see what would come of it.

Here is the weekly:

From my measurements, there is clearly a dearth of volume in the region from 12.25 all the way to 24.

However, before we get there, lets take a look at this from a price-resistance standpoint.  There could potentially be a couple of bumps in the road before we enter the void.  The first comes in the region between 10.8 and 11.7, which triggered reversals in 2008, 2010 (in the weeks after the flash crash) and also in 2012 (Green Arrows).  All three of those took place after steep run-ups (similar to what we are seeing now).

If price can constructively clear this region, all that stands between this stock and the “ether” is the reversal that took place in late 2010/early 2011 around 12.5 (Red arrow).

Past that…there is nothing other than a bump at 17 and some chop around 20 (pink arrows).

My friends, the call is this: through 12.5 and we best prepare our space helmets.

-EM

Go Long $TPX and Get a Better Nights Rest

466 views

Colleague Raul3 aka @TwoSmuth alerted me this morning that TPX has entered “the void” (why this was not on my watchlist is beyond me, but the glaring omission has been rectified).

A few weeks ago I did some analysis on the stock and noted that the low volume area measured to about a $15/share.  With a buffer in place to try and avoid getting chopped up on the periphery of the LVN, we are very close to where I would consider starting a position in this stock.

I know that I’m none to enthused about buying at the high end of a +9% day, so I’m going to sit by and wait to see if this one takes a breather before moving higher.  Granted, I may miss some of this initial move; however my “buy point” is at 38.8, so there is still some room to maneuver, and a consolidation here would provide an ideal opportunity for me to start a position.

UPDATE: Raul3 has notified me in the comments that TPX reports after the close today (1/24), so I definitely will be waiting until that smoke clears before making any decisions.

I’ll post the chart from my initial analysis and then a current version:

 

-EM

Revisiting $AAPL and “the Void”

553 views

Remember this post from a mere 10 days ago?

I’m sure many of you Apple fanboys out there were thinking: “LOL!!  OMG!? WTF!!1! This assclown is using historical volume analysis to warn me that the greatest stock ever known to man could plummet almost 80 points in short time??  LOLZ!?!! #TEAMAAPLFTW”

Full disclosure: I have an iPhone, iPod and iPad mini.

Let’s take a look at that same chart of AAPL updated through the $50 BILLION massacre that is taking place this morning.

The well publicized drubbing that HLF received following Bill Ackman’s attempted sadistic advances bounced right where the stock went from a low volume node to a high volume node.  Based on my prior analysis of AAPL and, if I were short, I would look to cover around 430.  There is ample support in that region in the form of the historical volume profile and prior resistance from late 2011.

If you are long and/or planning on adding/starting a position, I (obviously) would make plans to see the stock retreat to this general area, and begin formulating a plan in the event price does get to this point.  It could present a decent buying opportunity.

-EM

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