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Zenhunter

Don't pay dollar to keep 2 cents when wrong. Cut your losses quickly. Trade what you see, not what you think.

06-06-2014 Trading Journal

Away it went… up!

SPY_Daily

Look at the momentum to the upside!

Meanwhile, some of the my positions didn’t have the same momentum type of up movement…

$CLDX opened and headed lower which triggered my hard stop I placed yesterday.

CLDX_daily

While price recovered to even before closing; it did not have the same upward momentum to have a new high bar.  So, I did not miss anything by stopping out at small losses.

I bought $KNDI hoping to catch a bounce with a tight stop below yesterday low.

KNDI_daily

Nope, price did not take off like the $SPY and instead took me out by taking out yesterday low.  Looking that the chart above, You would think that it went out of air…Price also closed below the 79 & 89 MA lines.  So, I didn’t miss this trade for stopping out for small losses.

$BIOS opened higher than yesterday close so I bought back a starter position to test the water.

BIOS_daily

I even added more during the day; however, by end of day I decided to close out my position for small gain ’cause I didn’t want to hold this over the weekend when price only bounced modestly today.

$CREE went out of air by the close so I sold to lock in small gain as well.

cree_daily

With the $SPY shooting up, I didn’t want to hold any “swing trading” positions if price did not follow the same pattern.  $CREE gave back gain by the close so I sold.

$CLD also did not maintain the same $SPY upward movement; instead, it came back down from the intra-day high to settle back at the opening price to create a doji bar.

CLD_daily

Nope, I was not willing to hold this one as well when price did not follow the $SPY so I sold for small gain.  Notice that price could not close above the 89 MA line which meant that these two MAs are still strong resistance.

I searched my emotional connection to selling out my $KGJI and $AMRN earlier last week.  The reason to my action was nothing more than letting the “momentum” of selling of other positions to carry over to these two positions which I actually hesitated to sell.

“Why not?”

A simple “Why not?” pushed me over so I clicked, clicked, and clicked to sell $KGJI and $AMRN to my own chagrin.

Since $LRAD and $DMRC are my long-term fundamental play, I left them alone.

Regardless of my non-stellar performance of the positions I sold, $LRAD and $DMRC both gained enough for me to recapture 1.2% in my port.  YTD gain is now 3.3%.

Current holdings:

$LRAD, $DMRC, and 46% cash.

My 2 cents.

 

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06-05-2014 Trading Journal

Today is a “Wow” day!

SPY_Daily

Look at the chart, “Wow!” is all I can say…

But before the “Wow” was to happen, the market actually went down not long after the open.  Thus, I went short with $TZA with a tight hard stop below the intra-day low. Needless to day, I was stopped out for small losses.  It was a good thing I had a hard stop close by; otherwise, I would lose a lot more than I want to if I didn’t pay attention.

Afterward, I looked for candidate to go long now that I had a clean port with plenty of cash.

I selected $CLDX ’cause the chart looked like it was ripe for busting out to the upside.

CLDX_daily

However, I used a close hard stop below intra-day low to protect myself in case the rally is short-live.

Next, I bought some $CLD for the bounce play as well.

CLD_daily

While I was late to the table, the strong upward bar that took out the high of the last ten days reflected a lot of strength in today movement.  As in $CLDX, I also used a tight hard stop below intra-day low in case the rally lost momentum.

I also bought $CREE ’cause today doji bar was finding support at the 15 MA line and the 5 MA was coming to meet it.

cree_daily

I was looking for the 5 MA to turn back up after meeting the 15 MA line.  If price does not bounce from here, my tight stop below yesterday low will take me out for a small losses.

That was all I was willing to do today to test the water.

$DMRC recovered nicely today.

DMRC_daily

If price can bounce from here, current support has foundation that goes all the way back to February of this year.

$LRAD dropped significantly earlier in the day but recovered nicely by day close with higher than average volume.

LRAD_daily

If price can take out today high tomorrow, price may head back up above $2 easily.

Thanks to $DMRC recovery, my port also gained back 0.60% point.  YTD gain is now 2.1%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, CREE, CLD, CLDX and 32% cash.

My 2 cents.

 

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06-04-2014 Trading Journal

The market continued to inch higher…

SPY_Daily

There was no doubt the bull was in charge today by looking at the daily chart.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t say the same for my own trading today.  Instead, I hit the reset button today to cleanse myself of trading chaos in my port.

Trading chaos?

Do you remember those times when everything you did was just not “right”?

Today was such a day for me…

It all started with my dumping $AMRN in the morning and then saw the price climbed back higher without me.  Normally, this wouldn’t bother me ’cause I would just buy them back if I felt the momentum had reversed.  But the thing was that it had been umpteen times I’d been flipping $AMRN and today “missing out” after exiting the trade simply moved me closer to my internal reset switch.

$BIOS was trading higher not long after open so I added more.  It all went fine until in the late afternoon when $BIOS failed to maintain attitude and fell back down from $8.20 twice intra-day.  And when price breached the $8 support and traded below it, I knew I had to sell to protect profit ’cause the daily bar was forming a possible gravestone doji candlestick bar.  This could become bearish if price trades lower than the today low tomorrow. But I preferred to jump the gun and take my money first.

Maybe because seeing $BIOS gave back the gain so easily after what I thought was a strong day, it triggered my sense of “hopelessness” in my perception of the market trend.  It didn’t help when I saw $DMRC continued to deteriorate in price momentum; $NVLX turning back down after CEO and COO interviews; and $KGJI dropping further down despite a stellar earnings report in the last quarter.  It was like the stocks I was holding were defying logic simply to prove me wrong.

Then I questioned myself about buying into $INO in front of the reverse split and the Phase 2 result.

“Holy Smoke! What was you smoking, Z?  Why don’t you go to Vegas for that?  It would be more entertaining…”  

That voice in my head was all I needed to take action to cleanse myself of positions that were trying to tell me I shouldn’t be holding…

Immediately, I dumped $INO at breakeven.  Thanks goodness for the breakeven.

Then I dumped $KGJI to cut losses.  This was a tough one ’cause I was sitting on huge gain I didn’t take after the spike up from the stellar earnings report.  Instead, I added more which caused me to lose money due to higher average price from averaging up.

Then I sold $NVLX.  This one has a story similar to $INO, a technology that has been around a long time but nothing come to fruition yet.  In $INO case, it was synthetic vaccine, in $NVLX, it was “cell-in-the-box”.  Both technologies have the allure of saving the world and yet no one has cracked the code yet.  It was like someone “almost” invent a perpetual motion machine. Needless to day, I fell for the story hook, line, and sinker.  Although I don’t have any position on $NVLX and $INO now, I do want their technologies to succeed.  Well, I guess it is safe to say that everyone wants the perpetual motion machine to exist as well…

Then I sold $SEED.  $SEED’s last quarter earnings was horrible but the news of another China company offering a buy out propped the price back up above $2.00.  What bothered me the most was that there were no news at all from $SEED regarding the status of the offer or any counter-offer.  It was like the offer wasn’t really there.. or is it still there?  Well, with my internal fuse kicked, it didn’t matter if the deal was real or not, it lost its power over me so I sold to lock in whatever gain I had.

NO!  I couldn’t sell $DMRC.  I couldn’t even if I want to.  $DMRC is the “one way ticket” kind of stock, the kind that say, “once you are in, you better be right or you will lose big”.  I can think of it as similar to buying a piece of real estate in the outskirt of the town ’cause you believe the town will eventually grow into the land you have bought.  I’m betting that the future will adopt the Digimarc UPC barcode format, so I’m holding this purely for fundamental reason.

I’ve high hope for $LRAD and its technology.  At least the technology is actually functional and working, unlike $INO and $NVLX.  Like $DMRC, I’m just waiting for the world to adopt the technology.

There you have it, today I woke up and threw out the garbage (don’t worry, my garbage is someone’s treasure… meaning I could be wrong in selling them).

Oh yeah, did I mention that these positions that I’ve had were also draining out my YTD gain?  Seeing that I’m dangerously close to giving back all my gain for the year also contributed to my “kicking the fuse” to sell out.  YTD gain is now down to 1.50% for the year.

Current holdings:

$LRAD, $DMRC and 47% cash.  Yeap, these two positions comprise more than 50% of my portfolio.

My 2 cents.

 

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06-03-2014 Trading Journal

I’m amazed at the resiliency of the bull in the SP500.

SPY_Daily

While it was slightly down for the day, the bull possessed strength that the bear couldn’t overcome to make the market drop like a stone.

I bought back $AMRN for the bounce when price started to move up from the low of the day.

AMRN_daily

Price climbed back up to stay green after creating a lower low bar for the day.  Let’s see if the momentum will continue tomorrow on the upside.

Next, I bought $INO for the bounce.

ino_daily

Price looked like it was bouncing so I bought despite the fact that $INO will be doing a reverse split by end of the week on a 4 to 1 basis.

I think by doing a reverse split, management cover themselves by setting up a base level for the price to react to the coming Phase 2 result. If Phase 2 result is positive, the high price from the reverse split will allow fund managers to buy immediately to join the bandwagon.  And if Phase 2 result is less than expected, price still has a long way before it will drop below $1.00.  Thus, I’m betting on the side of positive result.

Due to corrections from $LRAD and $DMRC, the losses more than offset the gains from $BIOS.  My port gave back 0.50% today.  YTD gain is now 3.5%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, BIOS, KGJI, SEED, INO, AMRN and 9% cash.

From my other account:

$NVLX is holding well so far.

NVLX_daily

Price is only a stone throw from breaking out of the downtrend line to head back up.

My 2 cents.

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06-02-2014 Trading Journal

The market decided to start June with an up day despite the pressure from the Bear to bring it back down.

SPY_Daily

I said the bull won the battle today once again.

While the bull won the SP500, my port lost the battle today.

$DMRC took a hit again which I’ve no choice but to stick with the drawdown.  I’m holding $DMRC for the event play.

What event?

Well, I’m waiting for $DMRC to announce some retailers’ adoption of the Digimarc UPC code format.  While I don’t know if the new format will be adopted at all, all I know is that I’m betting that it will.  While I stand to lose quite a bit of dough if it is not adopted, the reward of being adopted will be mind-blowing.

It was a good thing $LRAD closed back at neutral after being down all day; otherwise, my port would have taken a much bigger hit.

I also sold $AMRN to cut losses in the morning when price failed to hold above $1.40.

Due to correction from $DMRC, $KGJI and $AMRN, my port gave back 1.1%.  YTD gain is now 4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, BIOS, KGJI, SEED and 20% cash.

From my other account:

$NVLX bounced back up today.

NVLX_daily

I like the fact that the 5 MA line is hooking back up.  Momentum indicators at the bottom are also coming back up from below.

My 2 cents.

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05-30-2014 Trading Journal

Market continued higher- like seven days in a roll (except for one tiny pause couple of days ago.

SPY_Daily

Wow, that was as bullish as the market can get.  Can the market break its five years cycle of rally and turn 2014 into a six years bullish run for the first time in 21st Century?  Remember, we are the ones who define the rules; whereas market will go where it pleases. Think about it, if you don’t have your money in the market, where else can you put your money?  CD in banks?  Money market?  Real estate?  There is really not much of a choice.  The stock market is the only next best thing to combat inflation. Yes, inflation where our Gov’t tells us there isn’t one. Housing price, gas price, and food prices are all creeping up.  Ok, cost of computer hardware are going down, whoopee doopee; but that is not essential to survival.  All costs related to essential survival are going up and will continue to go up as the population continues to expand in a world where the average lifespan is much longer than our parents and grandparents.

What about the collapse of the momo stocks/Nasdaq for the last two months?  Isn’t that a “forewarning” of what is about to happen to the general market?

Good question.  Sure, there is a “probability” of that happening.  On the other hand, there is also the probability that the correction of the momo stocks are simply the market cleansing itself out so that it can continue its ascent.  Think about it.  Comparing to history, the recent correction of the Nasdaq/momo stocks for TWO MONTHS straight failed to bring down the general market according to the “Nasdaq leading the general market trend” thesis.  Instead, the S&P500 was able to fight the Nasdaq gravity pull and started to head back up to make new high while the Nasdaq is still fighting to head back to the previous high.

Take a look at the daily Nasdaq Composite Index chart below.  I’ve highlighted the consolidation range based on what the immediate pivot highs and lows after Nasdaq made new high on early March.  This is the same formula I used to highlighted the SP500 consolidation range you see above.

COMPQX_daily

Notice how the Nasdaq had collapsed below the consolidation range, bounced off the 79 & 89 “magical” lines, and then broke thru below the 79 & 89 MA lines by mid-April to find support at the previous trend low at beginning of February.  Meanwhile, the SP500 was able to stay inside the consolidation range most of the time with a short-term dip below the consolidation range in mid-April in sympathy to the Nasdaq drop but that was the extent of the Nasdaq pull.  The SP500 bounced back up above the 79 & 89 MA line and into the consolidation range immediately after the dip and began the ascent back to the top of the consolidation range while the Nasdaq continued to be affected by the gravity pull during the same period.

Now, after reviewing both charts (SP500 and Nasdaq), Who is leading who now?

Based on the old “Nasdaq leading the SP500” thesis, the SP500 would not be making new high; it would be making new low.

But that isn’t the case right now, Isn’t it?

Folks, we are entering into a new era where it may be more productive to follow the general market trend instead of making prediction of coming doom and groom ’cause of the five years cycle established in the past.  You really cannot apply the past to current market condition ’cause there were no QEs for such an extended periods in the past.  The whole mechanism of the market has evolved to the point where the past is the past and new rules are being formed per current market environment.

The dynamic of our population increase demands that the market continues to stay healthy.  Otherwise, the consequence of a market crash will be ten-fold worse than the past.  The world knows it and will do everything to prevent a world-wide market collapse for the consequence will be unbearable.   The collapse in 2008 gave the world leaders a glimpse of the monster that could set the human race back in time.

All things considered, I believe we are setting the base here as the next support when the market correct in the future.  In other words, I believe the market will continue to head higher from here and current level is where the base is for the next correction to find support.

Enough of my market philosophical 2 cents…

I added to $BIOS today ’cause price opened higher and moved higher.

BIOS_daily

Now, that is a nice looking bullish pattern there.  I need to hold on to this one for the ride up.

I bought back $AMRN when I found out that the House Fiscal Year 2015 FDA Appropriation Bill & Report includes the following:

Special Protocol Assessment Agreements.—The Committee is concerned about questions that have arisen in connection with the rescission of a Special Protocol Assessment Agreement (SPA), including fundamental questions concerning FDA’s adherence to the statutory and regulatory guidelines that apply to the SPA process as well as to questions concerning fairness to the sponsors. The Committee would like to reiterate that FDA is expected to adhere to the established standard as informed by the Congressional Record and the 1997 PDUFA Goals Letter.

I’m thinking that the FDA may take some action to “save face” that end up benefiting $AMRN. Of course, the FDA may not even care and continue to punish $AMRN for whatever reason. If price could not find support at $1.40; I may have to think about cutting losses once again.

Next, I sold $DNN for breakeven before price fell back down below my entry point.  I bought this for the momentum and I did not want to stick around when momentum died down.

I also bought $KNDI for the bounce but decided to bail by closing bell when price did not perform well for the day.

$LRAD had a very nice gain today which helped my port quite a bit.

LRAD_daily

Price bounce right back above the 79 & 89 MA line and look like it may gun for the nearby resistance soon.

Despite a pullback from $DMRC, $KGJI, and $AMRN, gains from $LRAD and $BIOS more than offset the losses that my port gained 3/4 of a percentage for the day.  YTD gain is now 5.1%.

Current positions:

LRAD, DMRC, KGJI, BIOS, SEED, AMRN and 15% cash.

From my other account:

$NVLX corrected a bit today but I’m still holding. Next week will be telling on this stock.

My 2 cents.

 

 

 

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05-29-2014 Trading Journal

Market continued to move higher after a pause yesterday.

SPY_Daily

Look like we have another rally May instead of a “sell in May and go away” month.

Today I sold $AMRN to lock in gain as well as some $BIOS.

I sold $AMRN ’cause there was no follow up to the rally yesterday.  Not long before close yesterday, there was a high volume sales that was as large as the afternoon spike which sparked my interest in buying more.  After noticing the big volume sell off, I concluded that the original large order spike must had been an input error on the part of the trader/fund.  Before closing, I’m guessing that the same trader/fund must have dumped the shares to correct the error.  With this assumption, I sold $AMRN when I found price could not hold $1.47 after some attempts in the morning.

AMRN_daily

By day close, $AMRN formed an inside bar which could be either a pause to the upside or a potential topping before heading back down.  I’m staying on the sideline for now.

Seeing that $BIOS could not move much in the morning and the S&P500 was struggling to stay positive, I decided to sell off the $BIOS position even though I thought it would be a good bounce from here.  If the market correct, $BIOS would surely go down quickly with it.

I was proven wrong when price took out the opening range to the upside.  Upon seeing the breakout, I bought back 50% of my original $BIOS shares.

BIOS_daily

Price closed with a doji bar.  Let’s see if this is a pause bar or a setup for a reversal.

$DMRC bounced back some today as well as $KGJI.

KGJI_daily

I like to see today pattern as a confirmation of $KGJI starting the 3rd wave of the 5 waves Elliott Wave pattern. In other words, $KGJI is going to take out the resistances ahead and rally hard since the 3rd wave of the Elliott wave is usually the longest wave of the 5 waves pattern.

Despite minor corrections from $LRAD, $SEED, and $DNN, gains from $DMRC and $KGJI more than offset the losses and my port remained slightly positive (close to breakeven) for the day.  In summary, my port did not move much today except to stay on the positive side.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, KGJI, SEED, BIOS, DNN and 20% cash.

From my other account:

Since I didn’t have $FITX to tie up my cash, I decided to venture in $NVLX. I’d been eyeing this one for awhile but didn’t want to get in until the downtrend was stabilized.  Today was the second up day since the downtrend so I thought it was time to get in.

NVLX_daily

Price today closed at the 89 MA resistance line but was above the resistance from April low.  If price can take out the 79 & 89 MA lines from here, $NVLX will be heading back up with the possibility of not coming back to this level ever again if their “cell-in-the-box” technology proves to be effective.

$FITX corrected some today.  Even though I don’t have any $FITX now, I’ll be watching it on the sideline.

My 2 cents.

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05-28-2014 Trading Journal

The market took a pause today to enjoy the view of the new frontier…

SPY_Daily

Here we have an “almost” doji bar.  We’ll find out if this a a pause doji or a topping doji by the end of the week.

Today, I had to take a big losses from my $SVBL position ’cause it broke thru below the $0.30 support and I was just getting tired of sitting on dead money for too long.  Ever since I bought $SVBL I had been sitting on red for most of the time I held this stock.  Not only was it not performing, it was tying up money I could use elsewhere.  Thus, when price broker below the $0.30 support, I knew what I had to do.

At first, I unloaded 1/3 of my position and held onto the rest.  Later, when I saw others were dumping as well, I began to unload another third when the bids were still there.  Somehow, once I got the momentum to unload, I felt the urge to unload the rest.  And so I did.  Even though I knew I was taking bigger losses by hitting the bids that were there, I was just glad to be rid of it.  I also knew that I could make my money back by putting the money into more performing stocks.  I figured I probably lost 30% of my principle in this $SVBL position.  Oh yeah, now that I was out, I’m sure this stock will now fly off to the moon. Why do almost everyone thinks like this?

SVBL_daily

See how price broke thru the long-term support that went all the way back to March of 2013.  For all intent and purpose, I did what I had to do based on one of my trading discipline- cut losses, regardless of how much losses you may end up with, when price broke thru long-term support.

I used some of the proceed to buy more $BIOS.

BIOS_daily

$BIOS broke thru the long-term resistance and stayed above it.  I wanted to add more so I used the proceed from sales of $SVBL to buy more.  If $BIOS management can grow revenues from here, I can easily make back money I lost from $SVBL.

I also sold $CLDX to lock in profit and to use the fund to buy more $AMRN.

AMRN_daily

$AMRN spiked up hard in mid-day as you can see in the 5 minute chart above.  Although there were a similar high volume sell-off near the end of the trading day, it was not enough to tank the price back down to the opening range.  Let’s see if there is continuing momentum tomorrow.

Thanks to $SVBL, my port dropped 2.6% today.  YTD gain is now 4.4%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, AMRN, BIOS, KGJI, SEED, DNN and 2% cash.

From my other account:

While witnessing the continued rally of $FITX since I sold, I steadfastly refused to chase it.  Oh well, either I missed this boat or I save myself the headache of a gapped down stock price in the future.

My 2 cents.

 

 

 

 

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05-27-2014 Trading Journal

Up Up and Away Part 2.

SPY_Daily

Did you see today bar on the chart?  It sure looks like a wide open space in the new frontier.

I used the last remaining cash to buy $BIOS today.  I’ve been eyeing $BIOS on and off and I believe now is the time for me to take a position for a ride back to the top.  $BIOS has been working on creating synergy in their acquisitions and I believe they’ve finally succeeded in doing so.  Their recent earning transcript convinced me that they are now on the path to profitable future.

BIOS_daily

Based on the chart, today price action took out the resistance during the day.  Although I bought in after they took out the resistance, price fell back below resistance at closing bell.  Nevertheless, I’m continuing to hold for more bounce down the line.  Also, notice that the 79 & 89 MA lines are now converged together into one with price closing above it today. This is very positive chartwise. This may also be a long-term hold if management can keep growing their business.

$FSLR disappointed today with a  low percentage increase so I sold it for small profit and moved the proceed over to add more $AMRN, $CLDX, and $SEED.  I’m now back to 100% invested/speculated.

Except for $SVBL and $SEED which turned slightly negative for the day, the rest of my portfolio enjoyed gains which pushed my port up 1.3%.  YTD gain is now 7%.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, SVBL, KGJI, SEED, AMRN, CLDX, DNN, and BIOS (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

I’m still holding off from going back into the cannabis market.  I’ll wait and see.

My 2 cents.

 

 

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05-23-2014 Trading Journal

Up Up and Away!

SPY_Daily

Yeap, that was what the market did today. When you look back to the beginning of May, you may realize that “sell in May and walk away” doesn’t apply for 2014 as well.  Ok, I may jump the gun a bit since there are still four trading days left for the month; however, the market will have to fall hard the next four days to prove the “sell in May” theorem.  I can’t say the odd is against a falling market since the $SPY is now touching the upper band of the Bollinger band; but the after hour SP500 being up 6.95 currently tells me the bull is firmly in charge right now.

I bought $DNN today ’cause I was looking for a bounce.

DNN_daily

The 5 MA line is hooking back up and the momentum indicators below also tell me that price may be about to bounce.  I’ve my mental stop below the low of $1.14.

$DMRC took a small pause after yesterday bounce.

DMRC_daily

Price is now resting at the 79 MA line which is also a good support.  If price takes off from here, it will be a breakout of the downtrend line from the recent symmetrical triangle.

$KGJI continued to correct a bit but the fall is decelerating.

KGJI_daily

The “almost” doji looking bar is a small range bar and it may be a potential bottom from here.  Notice that the low of the day landed right on the 61.8% Fib retracement from recent low to recent high.

$AMRN looked good today with a nice bounce.

AMRN_daily

However, price needs to climb back above the resistance at $1.36 first.  Let’s see if this can happen this week; $AMRN will need a strong script number from last week to make it happen.

$LRAD bounced off the 15 MA line and closed back above the 89 XMA line.

LRAD_daily

I say it looks good from here.

Due to small corrections from multiple positions, my port dropped 0.66% today and YTD gain is now 5.7%

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, SVBL, KGJI, SEED, AMRN, DNN, FSLR, CLDX and 4% cash.

From my other account:

I got cold feet and decided to sell all my $FITX after the morning bounce.  While $FITX is definitely laying down ground work for a strong future ahead with high caliber directors; there is still an unknown “waiting period” for the Health Canada licensing approval.  The longer we don’t hear anything about the HC, the harder it is to support current price and market cap.  Thus, I’m foregoing possible run from here to play safe with my cash.  I’m looking to buy back $FITX at lower price if possible to reduce my risk exposure.

My 2 cents.

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