05-08-2014 Trading Journal

The market played a teasing game today.  It went up all morning and then came crashing back down in the afternoon.

While price as still in the trading range, the fact that price could not hold on to the top range meant the bear was pulling the bull back.  This back and forth b/w the bull and the bear is getting tiresome.  Not only that, it created plenty of whipsaws for my trading style.

If I had took short-term profits quickly for a day or two holding range, I would have been making quite a bit of money last two weeks.  Instead I witnessed profit vaporization the last two weeks ’cause I held them too long.  I held them for the purpose of a sustained rally which did not happen.

Today was a perfect example.  I had profit on $DDD early in the week but I held too long and today I had to bail at a losses simply ’cause I wasn’t paying attention to the price action. To make the matter worse, I added more $DDD in the morning which increase my losses a bit more by the time I got out.

I bought $GOGO looking for a bounce after the open.  I was doing ok until the turnaround in the afternoon which caused me to take a losses for half of my position.

Seems like the “falling” of the momo stocks is not over yet.

Today, $DMRC continued to head south and my port continued to take a hit. Together with losses from $GOGO and $DDD, my port dropped another 1.5%.  YTD gain is now 3%.  The three biggest draw-downs that brought my port down to 3% from 12% came from $DMRC, $LRAD and $SVBL which also happen to be my three largest positions in the port.  The irony is that these three stocks are mainly “event” stocks.

$DMRC: waiting for major retailers adoption of Digimarc barcode

$LRAD: waiting for military mega-orders of the long-range acoustic device or widespread adoption of their mass notification system.

$SVBL:waiting for a buy-out or a flight to precious metal mentality.

I’ve no idea if any of these events will take place but I know that if they do, I will win big, very big.

Thus, I’m willing to sit and wait and suffer the volatility that comes with it.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, SEED, KGJI, GOGO and 25% cash.

From my other account:

Waiting for $FITX to announce result of Health Canada inspection.

My 2 cents.

The bear was quite persistence in trying to drag the bull down; and yet the bull forged ahead despite the pull…meanwhile, the momo stocks, being perpetually weak and hungry all the times, could not resist the pull of the bear and fell thru the abyss into the bear stomach…

The $SPY was showing some fortitude with a green bar with a long tail.

Feeling the pull of the bear in the morning, I stopped out of $WPRT and $DDD for small losses; I practically gave back all gain from yesterday.

$AMRN could not hold on to $1.62, which was yesterday low, so I dumped the whole position at $1.61 for small losses.

I gave $NUGT more time to bounce in the morning but instead it continued to head lower.  By the time I saw my unrealized gain completely disappear, I dumped it at breakeven.

Seeing that $DNN already took out the low of the long bullish engulfment bar a week ago, I saw no point in holding anymore.  In fact, I should have sold it when it took out that low yesterday.  Needless to say, I sold it to cut losses as well.

By the end of the closing bell, I saw $DDD and $WPRT bounced back from the low, so I bought back 50% of my positions to see if it will bounce tomorrow.

Due to the multiple losses I took today as well as another correction on $DMRC, my port dropped 2.5%. YTD gain is now 4.5%.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, SEED, DDD, KGJI, WPRT and 19% cash.

From my other account:

Still waiting for hear on Health Canada approval of license for $FITX.

My 2 cents

Just when the bull thought it got away yesterday, the bear pulled the bull by the collar and yanked it back down.

And so the tug of war continued b/w the bull and the bear…As of now, market is trading in the consolidation range; so I wouldn’t call it a bear market yet.  In fact, if you look at the long-term trend line, we are still in a bull trend.  A pause in the long road ahead.

I sold $KNDI in the morning when I thought I would be adding more.  Why did I sell?  Well, from the SEC investigation, $KNDI did hire the promoters back in 2009 and 2010 and I was being mindful about a possible backlash from this news.  Based on today trading range, I was wrong to assume it.

Oh well, but all was not lost.  I used the money to add more $DDD in the morning when price action was behaving very strong.  I was correct to add more in the morning.  Price continued much higher afterward.

Price is now banging against the resistance from three trading days ago.  Despite today down day, $DDD was able to maintain altitude.  Let’s see if it will bounce higher tomorrow.

I’ve been eyeing $WPRT ever since the surprised earnings report a couple of days ago.  I was waiting for it to correct to buy in and price just wouldn’t come down.

Seeing that price was trading in the 79 & 89 MA resistance lines, I’ve to make a bet on whether price will take out the resistance and head higher or drop back down below.  I opted for the former and bought $WRPT with the free cash from sales of some $AMRN yesterday.  Despite today down day, $WPRT was holding quite well.  Price actually broke out of the resistance during the day, I would like to see it bounce higher tomorrow or later in the week.

Well, $DMRC could not hold on to yesterday gain so my port took a hit on that; however, rally from $DDD helped offset some of the losses and my port gave back only 1%.  YTD gain is now 7%.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, DDD, SVBL, SEED, AMRN, NUGT, KGJI, WPRT, DNN (100% invested/speculated)

From my other account:

While $FITX bounced nicely today, the name of the game is still about waiting for Health Canada approval of license.

My 2 cents.

The market made a dramatic come-back after opening down.

Look at that nice green bar.  This can only mean that the bull still has some sharp horns against the bear.

$DMRC published a white-paper that further supports the benefit of using Digimarc barcode for retailers. As far as I’m concerned, laser scanning for old upc barcode label is akin to VHS technology.  Image scanning is the new wave and Digimarc is all about image scanning plus more.

Price broke out of the resistance at $34 and closed nicely at $35.  All we need to hear is that a major private label retailer sign-on for the new Digimarc barcode and it may create a domino effect of other retailers to jump on board.  I’m going to hold this one for the long haul.

$KNDI woke up in the last hour of trading and price spiked up nicely.

Price took out both the 5 and 15 MA lines.  I may add more using the money from the sale of $AMRN today if price can maintain the altitude tomorrow.

$AMRN did not continue with last week momentum so I unloaded 40% of my position at breakeven to reduce risk.

The chart did not look particular bullish right now.  However, I’m still holding a decent amount for a possible bounce.

Thanks to rally from $DMRC, my largest position, and a few other positions, my port gained another 1% despite corrections from $KGJI, $DNN, $AMRN, and $DDD.  YTD gain is now at 8%.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, SEED, DDD, AMRN, KNDI, NUGT, KGJI, DNN and 4% cash.

From my other account:

Waiting for $FITX to announce result of Health Canada inspection of facility and approval of license.

My 2 cents.

Although the market was slightly negative today, I felt a strong undercurrent supporting the bullish stance.

Price is still above the 5 MA line despite a negative close.

Not to be given up so quickly, I tried $NUGT once again by buying in when price opened higher than yesterday close with a hard stop below the intra-day low.  This time I got traction.  My stop was not hit and I recovered all the money I lost from the last time I was stopped out of.  I’ll continue to hold this one as long as I can.

Chart showed a nice healthy bounce from here with volume greater than the last six trading days..

I also bought back some $KGJI which I used to own awhile ago but dumped it before the collapse.

I bought ’cause price bounced nicely off the support that goes back to September of last year. Let’s see if this one can bounce back to its formal trading range in the $1.7x area.

$DMRC bounced nicely today.

Today green bar may just be the beginning of another uptrend.  We’ll see next week.

Due to immediate gains from $NUGT and $KGJI as well as gain from $DMRC, $LRAD, $AMRN, my port went back up almost 2%.  YTD gain is now 7%.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, AMRN, SEED, DDD, KNDI, NUGT, KGJI, and DNN (100% invested).

From my other account:

Waiting for $FITX to announce result of Health Canada inspection and license approval.

My 2 cents.

The market took a pause today. 

See the doji bar near the resistance.  It could go either way… tomorrow we will find out.

I was quite impressed with $DDD transformation after reading their earnings report.  It has changed my perception of this company favorably.  I originally focused mainly on $XONE due to its metal printing machine; but $DDD actually made a lot of headway in this area as well.  Giving the bounce after the drop from the earnings news, I took the opportunity to buy some here as almost 50% discount from the previous historical high. 

From the weekly chart above, you can see the support goes all the way to early 2013.  If price remains about the same tomorrow, we will have an inside week that could serve as a possible bottom if this week high is taken out next week

Somehow, i can’t take my hand off the $KNDI machine.  I bought back a standard size position to see if it can bounce up from here. 

Price is still trading near the support so i will either get whipsawed again or finally catch the bottom from here.

$AMRN was holding well in the morning so I decided to add more to bring it back to the size I had two days ago. 

Price bounced nicely today.  If you look at the daily chart above, you can see the channel range from late January of this year.  Price seems to be bouncing off the bottom of the channel right now.

I had to admit I was a little hasty to add more $DNN after the open. 

Now, if I could only wait… but it is hindsight talking anyway.  After the big green bar yesterday, price has to take out the low of yesterday before I start thinking about cutting losses.  Meanwhile, I’m going to give it a bit more room to fluctuate.

$DMRC took another tumble today but somehow I’m not worried about this one. 

Price is still above the 79 & 89 MA lines; however, it is my belief in the $DMRC technology that put me in a calm mode.  After all, I have to be in the position to take advantage of any favorable development.  Missing out the rocket launch of $GWPH by one day is a huge lesson for me to learn.  One must learn to take some reasonable drawdown to stay in the game for the event news.  Due to downdraft of $DMRC and other positions, my port was down another 1%.  YTD gain is now 5%.

Current holdings: DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, AMRN, SEED, DDD, KNDI, DNN and 7% cash.

From my other account: Nothing new here except to wait for Health Canada inspection and approval of the license.

My 2 cents.

Market continued higher today.

Price is now coming near the resistance again.  Can it bust out to make new high?  It will be interesting.

Again, I was whipsawed by $NUGT.  Somehow, I knew it was going to happen but I bought anyway.  Oh well… moving on.

When market turned south initially after the open, I began to dump $APRI and $CERS to raise cash and reduce risk. I was near 100% invested and I didn’t want to get caught heavily exposed.  I also reduced $AMRN by 60%; but when price began to stabilize and started to move up again, I bought back some $AMRN shares I sold in the morning.

By the end of the day, I noticed that $DNN was forming a bullish engulfment bar at the support level, I saw this as an opportunity to buy some to see if this will bounce.

Notice that big bad green bar that completely engulfed the previous red bar?

Due to correction from $DMRC, $NUGT, and a few others, my port dropped a bit over 1%.  Current YTD gain is now at 6%.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, AMRN, SEED, DNN and 22% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX bounced again due to their readiness to be inspected by Health Canada.  It’s going to be another week or two before we may hear anything.  Patience is required here.

My 2 cents.

The market bounced some today.

I like the fact that it closed above yesterday high. This confirmed the bullish stance especially when yesterday was a long tail bar which meant the bull came back strong from below and now it was able to hold its gain and some.

I added to $AMRN today anticipating a breakout of the $1.67 resistance.

It finally did but price closed right on the resistance level… wait a sec… it should be called support now.  Anyway, chart still looks good to me for a possible bounce to higher price.

I bought $NUGT back today ’cause price was bouncing after the open.

When price took out the opening range, I bought back a position. Let’s see if price can move higher from here.  I’m feeling that flight to precious metal is about to happen soon.

$DMRC moved higher today and is now near the resistance point of $34.3x.

Let’s see if it can take out that resistance tomorrow.

$CERS also bounced a bit higher.

I like the fact that price is now closing above both the 5 & 20 MA lines.

Thanks to rallies from $DMRC, $SVBL, $AMRN, $SEED, and $CERS, gain was more than offset the losses from $LRAD and $APRI.  My port gained 1% today.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, AMRN, SEED, CERS, APRI, NUGT and 6% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX had a correction today but that was again a non-issue except to wait for Health Canada to inspect and approve the license.

My 2 cents.

The market had a yoyo day… uip and down and up again.

Thanks goodness it closed on the higher side.  Today action meant that the bull hasn’t given up yet.  The uptrend is still on and the 79 & 89 MA lines are still trending higher.

Today, I continued to add to $AMRN position due to the fact that Pfizer is in take-over mood.  Not that it will buy out $AMRN but it may put other potential buyers in the mood.  I’m also thinking that monthly script may start to increase as a result of the partnership with Kowa Pharmaceuticals America Inc.

From the look of the chart, today bounce offsets Friday drop and keep the price above the support established back in late January. Let’s see if price can get back to the $2 area.

I also bought a starter position on $KNDI for the bounce after the collapse at the open.  The bounce was good but it didn’t last.  I was stopped out for losses since it was meant to be a swing trade instead of a buy and hold.

I also added to $APRI.  As long as price did not take out the lower half of the April 16th long green bar, this one has the potential to take out the resistance at $2.6x.

However, from the chart point-of-view, it has mixed signals.  Price staying above the 89 xma and the 20 MA line is a good sign but the momentum indicators below all point to possible over-bought.  I added more simply because $APRI is finally shipping their products.

I bought back $CERS here ’cause it looked like a formation of a double-bottom here.

From the chart, you can see the current double-bottom support goes all the way back to July of last year.  I expect this support to hold.  If price bounces from here, I may add more.  Earnings is coming out on May 1st and I feel that any bad news is already baked in the downdraft for the last two months.  So, the probability of bouncing is good.

$DMRC looked like it wanted to bounce so I added a bit more.

Today price action closed above Friday high which boded well for the bull side.

Despite some gains, losses from $KNDI and $SEED put my port at breakeven for the day.

Current holdings:

DMRC, LRAD, SVBL, AMRN, SEED, CERS, APRI and 14% cash.

From my other account:

$FITX continued higher and closed right on the resistance line.  It really doesn’t matter where price close these days ’cause the real key here is to get the license approval from Health Canada.

My 2 cents.

Market corrected today and gave back about four days of gain.

If you look at the chart pattern inside the consolidation range, do you see a head and shoulder in development?  If price takes out the lower band of the consolidation range, the market is in trouble.  If price takes out the previous low at April 11th, it will be bad.  But these are all “ifs”; so let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.  As long as price stays above the 79 & 89 MA lines, I’m leaning on the bullish side.

I didn’t do much today except to add a bit more $AMRN and $APRI which closed down for the day.  I’m going to give these two a bit more room to breath instead of trading in and out quickly.  I want to hold these twos for a longer term to see if fundamental can take them back up; so I’m going to give it some more room.  Last time I traded in and out of a stock I missed out the spectacular rise of $GWPH.  So, I’ve learned my lesson once again.

$DMRC opened lower and then dropped like a rock when somebody dumped a thousand or so shares at the market, but that was a fake low since the next trader who bought a couple of hundred shares had to pay much higher than the intra-day low.  This is what you’ve to deal with when you are holding a super low-float stock.  I don’t mind it at all since I believe once the fundamental story begin to take hold and embrace by the market, price will be on the up and up.  I’ve got a good feeling about this one the same way I had a good feeling about $LNG.  My mistake was that I allowed the volatility of $LNG got the best of me so I bailed with a small profit and missed the biggest rally ever.  This time, I’m going to hold on to $DMRC despite volatility.

See how price had regained much of the downdraft by closing bell?  Today bar looked like a dragonfly doji; this pattern has a high probability of being a market turning points.  Let’s see if this is the case here.

It was strange that $SVBL did not follow the silver trading pattern today which was up slightly.

This must be an aberration due to some motivated sellers trying to raise some cash.  I’m holding this one the way I’m holding $DMRC and $LRAD ’cause I believe flight to precious metal may happen this year.  I don’t know when but it may happen.

Due to $SVBL and other minor corrections of the rest of the positions, my port was down again.

Current holdings:

$DMRC, $LRAD, $SVBL, $SEED, $AMRN, $APRI and 30% cash.  YTD gain is now 7%.

From my other account:

$FITX bounced nicely today.

Now, the long-standing resistance is only a stone throw away.  I believe money flow coming from people who sold $PHOT was driving $FITX up today.

My 2 cents.