NASDAQ futures are trading near the Tuesday cash lower after an overnight session featuring elevated range and extreme volume. Price worked lower overnight, slowly, helping to form the current microcomposite distribution we are in. At 8:30am both CPI and Retail Sales data come out mixed.
Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down and early push lower. This discovered a responsive bid and we traversed the entire morning range and eventually went range extension up. After that another hard sell came in but it could not take out the day low. Instead we drifted higher through ramping hour and into the close.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press lower off the open, down through overnight low 6256.25 to tag 6241.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers to work in to the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6293.50. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6296.25 and close the gap up at 6312 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a move down to 6218 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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What are Hypo2 and 3?
let’s say my main expectation this morning would have been wrong, then I have two other expectations, so I have a 50/50 chance of trading a good plan
fortunately today, primary hypo paid then I made some avocado toast
main expectation —> primary expectation* or primary hypothesis
with my trading plan I want to be as objective and matter-of-fact as possible, so we use scientific and statistical terminology
Do you have written material to provide background on your trading- how you get levels that type of thing
I am working on putting together all my inspirations and explaining the process in a bit more detail