NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked lower overnight to find a responsive bid around prices last seen in late-February. From there the market worked higher, attempting a move back into last Friday’s range. This was met with selling which ultimately pushed the market down near Globex session low before we settled into two-way trade. At 8:30am Advance Good Trade Balance came out worst than expected.
Also on the economic docket today we have Markit Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am and a 3- and 6-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30am.
Last week started out with a strong gap up. The move enticed buyers to initiate trades Monday morning before ultimately reversing near the end of the day. Overall, we traded water after that until Thursday when the market began working higher with conviction.
Friday opened pro gap down after the Brexit vote. The Friday morning open featured a strong bounce that pushed price up near the gap zone left behind Monday. Lots of supply was discovered here and we spent the rest of the session trending lower.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap up to 4268.50. Look for responsive sellers up at 4270 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 seller work lower off the open and take out overnight low 4215 setting up a move to the measured target at 4208.75. Look for responsive buyers ahead of 4200 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 strong selling pushes the market below 4200 and sustains trade below it triggering a liquidation move down to 4171 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 4 strong buyers close overnight gap 4268.50 then sustain trade above 4270 setting up a move to target 4300. Stretch target is 4328.25.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
Hypo 3 was spot on sir
for sure