Nasdaq futures are flat heading into cash open here in the USA. The session featured a slightly elevated range taking place on a normal amount of volume. Price managed to briefly test below yesterday’s RTH low before reversing and thrusting higher to put us back to unchanged.
At 8:30am Non-Farm payroll data came in just a touch lower than expectations but when paired with revisions it has solidified many a pundits view that The Fed will raise rates (liftoff) in September. Also on the docket today we have the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3p,.
Yesterday we printed what looked like a trend day down. It looked like this until New York lunchtime when other timeframe (OTF) participation turned off and 2-way (local) trade ensued. Despite my best attempt to label yesterday’s profile print within the confines of Mind Over Market logic, it makes sense to keep an open mind that not every instance in life can be labeled. Thus, it was a trend day that morphed into a long tailed lowercase letter-b, aka liquidation, a temporary phenomenon.
Heading into today, my primary expectation is for bulls to attempt the pole climb. They will first need to target and exceed overnight high 4533.75. From there they aren’t likely to find much resistance until way up at 4587.50.
Hypo 2 is buyers struggle and cannot take out overnight high 4533.75 and we roll over and continue probing lower. The book is thick around 4513 but if bears can push down through here I will be looking to target the 7/13 open gap down at 4487.50.
Hypo 3 the morning excitement fizzles into typical summer Friday trade and a 2 way grind takes hold between 4550 and 4510.
Levels:
Agree with the rate hike. Listened to a really good interview that discussed how the tone was different from previous and how in the latest release the Fed ignored any “bad” data and only focused on the positive…setting up the stage for a Sept hike.
Nothing to it but to do it now.
Disagree. There will be no rate hike until 2017 at the earliest. Because of OTC derivatives.
Fed fund futures show a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, so you may be right, but the odds aren’t in your favor 🙂 …barely
Raul just curious, does your software keep track the NQ gaps for you, or do you manually draw them and delete them?
Manually, I do lots of things manually that probably could be automated. You should see my, “to automate” list. It is long my friend.
Question is does a rate hike matter. Historically markets have done just fine up to 4% or so. Side note I’m getting me some tweeter down here
Odds? In a bear market, odds get tossed into the proverbial cocked hat. The fed rate hike talk is 100% pure snow white propaganda. Indeed, my 2017 guesstimate may well prove wildly conservative.
Here we have bonds going up in the face of fed rate hike talk. Most notably, the 30yr has gone from 3.25% to 2.82% in the last month. If interest rates were going up in the near future, this thing should be getting clobbered. Explanation?